The hypersonic programs I think have paved the way instead of the other way around. We're talking re-entry back into the atmosphere and controlling the hypersonic flight. HGVs are probably much more difficult since they need to hit actual targets with a lot more accuracy without the loose margins or slow downs.
China's Space Program News Thread
- Thread starter crazyinsane105
- Start date
- Status
The hypersonic programs I think have paved the way instead of the other way around. We're talking re-entry back into the atmosphere and controlling the hypersonic flight. HGVs are probably much more difficult since they need to hit actual targets with a lot more accuracy without the loose margins or slow downs.
You're probably right. They definitely knew what they were doing already.
I really like the fact that China's space program has basically non-stop milestones lined up from 2021-2023, almost on a monthly basis. Assembling a multi-module space station as well as next generation cargo and manned vehicles, the space telescope, chang'e 7 swarm mini-landers, and asteroid sample-return mission are all well underway and past the point of return. I'm hoping they firm up the following missions because otherwise the calendars start looking empty around 2024-2025.
- Jupiter exploration mission, with possible lander on one of the moons
- Mars generation 2 rover (call them curiosity-class), possibly powered by RTG and integrated with a broader sample return to earth
- Venus probe mission, possibly with lander or a blimp to float in the atmosphere
- Deep space probe to neptune or uranus, both to test out new propulsion technologies and also provide better data on outer planets, since they have only been flybys in late 70s and 80s. Bonus if microsatellites could also be sent to map out some of the moons.
What I do not want to see:
- manned missions to luna; very expensive and questionable scientific value, let the americans be the guinea pigs and flag wavers
- manned missions to mars; even more expensive but better scientific value, again let the americans be the guinea pigs and bankrupt themselves, maybe china gets to rescue a mark watson too...
I do believe however that China should "race" Americans to mars from an unmanned sample return. Sample return from Mars would likely be a monumental effort, involving multiple curiosity-class rovers gathering various rock samples, with multiple retrieval rovers, Martian launch ascenders, mars orbiters and earth returners. This would be many times the magnitude and complexity of Tianwen-1 and Chang'e 5 and also necessitate launches on a LM-9 class rocket (or a bunch of LM-5s, but that would be wasteful). China could create a stretch goal like sample return by 2030 (or maybe just starting the return from Mars by 2030, since it takes years to make the journey), and then mobilize Chinese society and students like the Americans in the 60s.
If we can get some Russian or European sensors on these probes too, the better. Its time for china to create its own space alliance.
Makes sense to have a long-term stay for Shenzhou 12, since that is a capability which is yet to be proved.
However, I think a better option, albit higher risk is a medium stay for Shenzhou 12 of ~1 month, leave 2 crew on board for a few weeks, and then get picked up in Shenzhou 13 with a bare minimum crew which stays again for ~1 month. As an interim goal, prior to space station completion, is proving out that we can rotate space crews like under Mir or ISS.
A useful goal is to get at least one taikonaut to stay in space over 100 days, as that will allow china to evaluate physiological and psychological changes for long duration missions.
Quickie
Colonel
The HGV is powered at the terminal stage, or some time before that, which would greatly improve its accuracy.
A manned mission to Luna would be good for the implementation of a future moon base and a Helium 3 mining station; not to mention the lower gravity of Luna would make it ideal to build future spaceships, assuming something can be done to take care of the moon dust getting everywhere.
Helium-3 mining is a bit of a pipe dream. You need to shovel tons and tons of dirt to get a minute amount. The nuclear fusion reactors which would work using Helium-3 aren't even in the design phase either. They already have enough trouble getting D-T to work and it's supposed to be simpler.
Someone at NASA made a proposal several years back which I think is much more realistic. Since most of the lunar regolith is silica they proposed making solar panels using lunar materials and using those to power lunar facilities and maybe even beam back the energy back to Earth.
Someone at NASA made a proposal several years back which I think is much more realistic. Since most of the lunar regolith is silica they proposed making solar panels using lunar materials and using those to power lunar facilities and maybe even beam back the energy back to Earth.
China beating US to Mars sample return is actually entirely possible. Current NASA "plan" is for the rover on its way to Mars to pick up some samples. Then another spacecraft to be launched around 2026 which will land on Mars, collect the sample and launch it to martian orbit, then another space craft to launch in 2028 to meet up with it, get the sample and return it back to earth by 2031. This been not a very firm plan and requiring cooperation with ESA means that timeline is pretty questionable.
China plans to launch a Mars sample return mission in 2028 and have the sample return by 2031, so already the timeline are pretty comparable. Given the lunar exploration mission progress so far between CNSA and NASA I'm more inclined to believe CNSA will beat NASA to the punch.
The plan originally called for a single launch by Long March 9 to launch the martian sample return craft. But lately I heard the plan has changed to two launches, a Long March 3B and a Long March 5, and by docking the two halves you will have the completed spacecraft. The completed spacecraft would use a similar architecture to Chang'e 5, using an orbiter/return module and a lander/ascent module. Obviously the lander/ascent would need some changes to take advantage of the atmosphere when landing and a bigger ascent module to overcome the greater gravity and atmosphere of Mars. Not requiring a Long March 9 means it would not be tied down to the launch vehicle which probably won't be ready till 2030. The spacecraft itself would reuse many of the techniques learnt from Chang'e 5 and Tianwen-1.
NASA might still be first with sample return if Biden does a pivot from moon to Mars just like Obama did. But then Artemis would be stuffed and you will probably instead see first lunar base by China. Can't win them all.
- Status