China's SCS Strategy Thread

[coolgod]

Some SCS commentators seem to think something big is happening on the 15th because that's when the new Coast Guard law comes into effect which would allow CCG to arrest people on the spot. Maybe they would even storm the ship.

I'm not really convinced, I feel if that was happening more 政治动员 would be happening in the media. What are your thoughts?

If that is the case why is the domestic state media putting out news about SCS every single day for about 2 weeks now. Is the government really going to raise everyone's appetite then let everyone down by doing nothing?

Today's media for example

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

To all those "Nothing will Happen" believers, in the past you would have been right for a while but eventually you would be proven wrong. In the past few months China didn't frequently meet in person with all the SCS countries just to tell them "don't worry bro, nothing is going to happen".

 

[Temstar]

If that is the case why is the domestic state media putting out news about SCS every single day for about 2 weeks now. Is the government really going to raise everyone's appetite then let everyone down by doing nothing?

Today's media for example

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

To all those "Nothing will Happen" believers, in the past you would have been right for a while but eventually you would be proven wrong. In the past few months China didn't frequently meet in person with all the SCS countries just to tell them "don't worry bro, nothing is going to happen".

You are right, some level of mobilisation is happening. Media aside intercepting and dumping the air dropped food was also unheard of before.

It's just there hasn't been any "don't say we didn't warn you" type of media mobilisation yet.

 

[Wrought]

If that is the case why is the domestic state media putting out news about SCS every single day for about 2 weeks now. Is the government really going to raise everyone's appetite then let everyone down by doing nothing?

Today's media for example

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

To all those "Nothing will Happen" believers, in the past you would have been right for a while but eventually you would be proven wrong. In the past few months China didn't frequently meet in person with all the SCS countries just to tell them "don't worry bro, nothing is going to happen".

Something is happening. It is the same thing which has been happening all year. Slow pressure, steady increase. More ships, closer boats, more water cannons, higher pressure. But nothing sudden, nothing dramatic, nothing which can spiral out of control and cause more problems than it solves.

The next step is obviously to target food supplies. Which they just started, and if continued, will force the Philippines to make hard choices. Now that doesn't mean CCG is not ready to react to any crisis, but I doubt they will start one. It doesn't make sense when they are already winning.

 

[ansy1968]

I am more and more convinced that the Beijing Government is aiming long-term in its political objectives.
A confident Beijing is cultivating an image of being a patient, rational, and peaceful player in solving contentious international issues through dialogues and diplomacy, despite its overwhelming military might vis-a-vis countries in Asia.
While America attempts to solve all issues by force and bombs.
I am so glad that Xi Jin Ping is not a trigger-happy leader, instead he appears to be calm (even cold) and composed at least in his public appearances and meetings with foreign dignitaries. Beating the hell out of BBM at this stage might not serve China's interest by portraying a negative image to the Global South that China is just another hegemon and bully like America. When ASEAN itself cannot stand the SCS disrupting antics of BBM anymore, and turns a blind eye in tacit acceptance, then maybe that would be the time to act tough and send out the warships.

That's why Beijing refuse US offer of G2 or Chimerica, what America want is for China to be their Henchman in the Pacific. It's a good thing the Chinese say NO, the world will be a lot of hurt with 2 bullies instead of one.

 

[coolgod]

You are right, some level of mobilisation is happening. Media aside intercepting and dumping the air dropped food was also unheard of before.

It's just there hasn't been any "don't say we didn't warn you" type of media mobilisation yet.

Maybe the age of 勿谓言之不预 is coming to an end, who reads the paper version of 人民日报 these days anyways?

Something is happening. It is the same thing which has been happening all year. Slow pressure, steady increase. More ships, closer boats, more water cannons, higher pressure. But nothing sudden, nothing dramatic, nothing which can spiral out of control and cause more problems than it solves.

The next step is obviously to target food supplies. Which they just started, and if continued, will force the Philippines to make hard choices. Now that doesn't mean CCG is not ready to react to any crisis, but I doubt they will start one. It doesn't make sense when they are already winning.

Nope, the vast increase in recent domestic media coverage implies it is not the same thing that has been happening all year.

 

[Wrought]

Nope, the vast increase in recent domestic media coverage implies it is not the same thing that has been happening all year.

Or it could imply a new editor at the office, or a new media policy, or any number of other causes which have nothing to do with what's actually happening at the shoal on the 15th. The evidence you have is too small, the conclusion too big, so you are just guessing blindly.

 

[TK3600]

I am more and more convinced that the Beijing Government is aiming long-term in its political objectives.
A confident Beijing is cultivating an image of being a patient, rational, and peaceful player in solving contentious international issues through dialogues and diplomacy, despite its overwhelming military might vis-a-vis countries in Asia.
While America attempts to solve all issues by force and bombs.
I am so glad that Xi Jin Ping is not a trigger-happy leader, instead he appears to be calm (even cold) and composed at least in his public appearances and meetings with foreign dignitaries. Beating the hell out of BBM at this stage might not serve China's interest by portraying a negative image to the Global South that China is just another hegemon and bully like America. When ASEAN itself cannot stand the SCS disrupting antics of BBM anymore, and turns a blind eye in tacit acceptance, then maybe that would be the time to act tough and send out the warships.

Image of calm and composed supports image of overwhelming might, not other way around. If Mao didnt clap Americans in Korea, everyone would interpret your 'calm and rational' as sign of weakness. From time to time others needs a reminder that China is not in P5 for nothing, like Vietnam in 70's.

You could also say Putin was very careful on Ukraine post 2014. But most of his calmness was interpreted as being weak, so Russia too had to remind them where boundaries are.

Frankly China dancing around carefully is an act of mercy. It would be as if Haiti trying to annex territory off USA. What a crazy world we live in.

 

[PhSt]

Philippine Navy spokesperson called China's enforcement of maritime law in Ren'ai Jiao 'Zero common sense'. Hopefully, when June 15 comes, the Filipino intruders will be dealt with accordingly, to make the Filipinos come to their senses.

 

[coolgod]

Or it could imply a new editor at the office, or a new media policy, or any number of other causes which have nothing to do with what's actually happening at the shoal on the 15th.

Lamest excuse ever. "New Media Policy" is probably something that will happen after Taiwan is liberated lmao.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799062002620629133

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Exclusive: On-site pics disprove Philippine claims of ‘evacuating sick military member’

The exclusive on-site photos obtained by the Global Times on Friday disprove the latest claims by the Philippine Coast Guard that they were "evacuating a sick military member."

Reuters and other foreign media outlets reported on Friday that the Philippine Coast Guard had accused the China Coast Guard (CCG) of blocking efforts to evacuate a sick member of its armed forces stationed at the Ren'ai Jiao and called the CCG's actions "barbaric and inhumane."

However, exclusive on-site photos obtained by the Global Times on Friday show that the Philippine side dispatched the high-speed assault boats to participate in the illegal transport and repair. The boats all belonged to the Philippine military, and carried a large number of suspicious materials.

 

[coolgod]

Just wondering why fxtwitter.com and not just twitter.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1797757863349366879

View attachment 130639

That Type 071 and its Type 726 LCAC was part of PLAN's exercises on June 3rd-4th near Xianbin Jiao.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799088124120993937

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!