China's SCS Strategy Thread

[vincent]

Honestly just tow the damn ship already. There can only be two outcomes: Tow the ship and parry off whatever tantrum coming. Or let enemy get away with it so a bigger taunt is coming, in which case a bigger retaliation is required.

If the goal is to keep peace, a quick retaliation will end the drama.

If the goal is to provoke a bigger war, which is unlikely to be China's objective, then pick option B.

The ship on Renai Jiao is not seaworthy anymore. It will break apart the moment you try to tow it.

 

[TK3600]

The ship on Renai Jiao is not seaworthy anymore. It will break apart the moment you try to tow it.

Fine, lets rephrase it to "remove". The inhabitants get a free ride home on a much more comfy boat. Honestly too good for them.

 

[Temstar]

Some SCS commentators seem to think something big is happening on the 15th because that's when the new Coast Guard law comes into effect which would allow CCG to arrest people on the spot. Maybe they would even storm the ship.

I'm not really convinced, I feel if that was happening more 政治动员 would be happening in the media. What are your thoughts?

 

[TK3600]

Some SCS commentators seem to think something big is happening on the 15th because that's when the new Coast Guard law comes into effect which would allow CCG to arrest people on the spot. Maybe they would even storm the ship.

I'm not really convinced, I feel if that was happening more 政治动员 would be happening in the media. What are your thoughts?

My thoughts would be China would try to keep this under wrap. Political mobilization is when you are ready for something big, like invading Vietnam. Something that makes your population endures hardship and you must convince them it is worth it. Philipine? Honestly just like swatting a fly. Dragging them off the island is trivial. If I were the government, I would keep this as quiet as possible to not distract the global outcry in Palestine.

 

[Jono]

seems the China CG is surrounding the ship and denying supplies including foodstuffs to the PH soldiers, in a bid to persuade them to leave voluntarily??
I also believe definitive action will be taken on or after June 15 to evict the PH soldiers, otherwise China will lose credibility for not acting upon a public statement: ""the new Coast Guard law comes into effect which would allow CCG to arrest people on the spot"".

 

[Micron]

Some SCS commentators seem to think something big is happening on the 15th because that's when the new Coast Guard law comes into effect which would allow CCG to arrest people on the spot. Maybe they would even storm the ship.

I'm not really convinced, I feel if that was happening more 政治动员 would be happening in the media. What are your thoughts?

IMO this should be taken very seriously. It is a stern warning directed at foreign NGO activists and the representatives of MSM that are oblivion to the danger ahead.
China always walk the talk.

China have noticed that these so-called observers are the same and have been constantly seen accompanying the Philippines boats. We in ASEAN all know who pay them.
They will be arrested, investigated and may even charged for trespassing.
China is in no hurry and have just anted up the game as time is on their side.

 

[TK3600]

seems the China CG is surrounding the ship and denying supplies including foodstuffs to the PH soldiers, in a bid to persuade them to leave voluntarily??
I also believe definitive action will be taken on or after June 15 to evict the PH soldiers, otherwise China will lose credibility for not acting upon a public statement: ""the new Coast Guard law comes into effect which would allow CCG to arrest people on the spot"".

I mean, maybe it will work. But starving people is potentially messier than straight up evicting, if they end up being stubborn. In that case it is better to physically evict the squatters than let their lives be endangered.

 

[Wrought]

Some SCS commentators seem to think something big is happening on the 15th because that's when the new Coast Guard law comes into effect which would allow CCG to arrest people on the spot. Maybe they would even storm the ship.

I'm not really convinced, I feel if that was happening more 政治动员 would be happening in the media. What are your thoughts?

CCG has consistently acted with restraint and escalated only gradually, while the Philippines have made a lot of noise but not altered the facts of the situation. Slow and steady pressure is much lower cost than a big dramatic incident. Why change a winning strategy?

I have no idea why so many people, especially online, are so irrationally impatient. The real world is not a drama with new episodes every week.

 

[lcloo]

诸葛亮 vs 莽夫 Zhu Ge Liang vs Reckless.

Zhu Ge Liang was one of the smartest military strategist in China's history.

 

[Jono]

I am more and more convinced that the Beijing Government is aiming long-term in its political objectives.
A confident Beijing is cultivating an image of being a patient, rational, and peaceful player in solving contentious international issues through dialogues and diplomacy, despite its overwhelming military might vis-a-vis countries in Asia.
While America attempts to solve all issues by force and bombs.
I am so glad that Xi Jin Ping is not a trigger-happy leader, instead he appears to be calm (even cold) and composed at least in his public appearances and meetings with foreign dignitaries. Beating the hell out of BBM at this stage might not serve China's interest by portraying a negative image to the Global South that China is just another hegemon and bully like America. When ASEAN itself cannot stand the SCS disrupting antics of BBM anymore, and turns a blind eye in tacit acceptance, then maybe that would be the time to act tough and send out the warships.