China's SCS Strategy Thread

[valysre]

The Chinese regulation coming into force today would most certainly enable the detainment of "fishermen". Regardless of whether any fishing is being done, Filipino nationalist sentiment has been roused to such a degree that even a legitimate fisherman will act as a member of the Filipino maritime militia.
However, I hope that no serious detainments actually happen. The Filipinos seem far too eager for martyrdom, and while the US is unlikely to really step in if some fisherman dies, it's not a good look on the international stage for China.

 

[duskseeker]

The Chinese regulation coming into force today would most certainly enable the detainment of "fishermen". Regardless of whether any fishing is being done, Filipino nationalist sentiment has been roused to such a degree that even a legitimate fisherman will act as a member of the Filipino maritime militia.
However, I hope that no serious detainments actually happen. The Filipinos seem far too eager for martyrdom, and while the US is unlikely to really step in if some fisherman dies, it's not a good look on the international stage for China.

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so only the Ph owns SCS

 

[Dolcevita]

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so only the Ph owns SCS

Didn't a Filipino defense official recently invite other claimants, including Vietnam to fish in the disputed SCS seas while talking about Rén'ài Jiāo to challenge China? Why are they arresting them now?

 

[Wrought]

Didn't a Filipino defense official recently invite other claimants, including Vietnam to fish in the disputed SCS seas while talking about Rén'ài Jiāo to challenge China? Why are they arresting them now?

Look at the date. That article is from 2011.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

A 071 LPD and a 075 LHD among other Chinese warships have been deployed to the SCS.

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[TK3600]

A 071 LPD and a 075 LHD among other Chinese warships have been deployed to the SCS.

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Wow, shit is really going down. I thought it was just coast guards arresting trespassers. Looks like a big move is coming.

 

[LuzinskiJ]

I think a plausible scenario for the Philippines if China gains an upper hand in a, what I hope never to happen, armed conflict between USA and China over Taiwan is that the US forces in the Philippines will instigate a putsch to the government at the time, regardless of who it is, establish an interim government (ala Vichy) in the name of protecting the whole of Philippines against any (likely imagined) separatist elements seeking to destabilize the Republic of the Philippines. This way if China wins the conflict (again, hoping that conflict never happens), then there is always a beachhead for the USA to harass and otherwise somehow keeping China's attention. So this is an insurance policy.

However, another more sinister scenario is that if the US loses bad enough and can no longer pay attention to that side of the world, then the remaining US forces can potentially turn rogue, become a warlord that is much bigger and powerful than the Philippines military itself, take over the norther part of the Philippines and finally declare itself the rightful governing body. It will then signal non-aggression and non-contention in SCS with China, so China doesn't mind having a neutral and dependent state in SCS. And since US at that time is too preoccupied with losing and its aftermath, it will be a while for it to contest facts on the ground in the Philippines, And in that interim the new regime in Manilla can come up with political palatable ways to pacify USA, and with the US not wanting to engage yet another armed conflict in SCS in full view of China (who had won and took over Taiwan), it will probably accede to the existence of the new government now ruling from Manila since it is of US origin and mostly Americans anyways. It can always sell the new regime in Manila as an offshoot of the USA and a win out of the conflict.

The bottom line is, the US force in the Philippines is just as much a force to counter China, an insurance policy for the US if things go side-ways and worrisomely, a huge potential warlord in the Philippines. The latter two possibilities are existential threats to Philippines itself.

 

[ansy1968]

The bottom line is, the US force in the Philippines is just as much a force to counter China, an insurance policy for the US if things go side-ways and worrisomely, a huge potential warlord in the Philippines. The latter two possibilities are existential threats to Philippines itself.

If there is a war in Taiwan the theater will be in the 2nd Island chain and also we maybe dumb BUT we ain't stupid, we allow the US to bases their equipment under EDCA BUT we can restrict their usage by not allowing US personnel to operate it under VFA. So there is a play here and we hold the card if things go to shit. You have to understand that those additional bases are up in Northern Luzon within range of Chinese missile and bombers, one of those is Marcos home province of Ilocos, do you think he will allow his home province to be destroyed? And also there are many people in Metro Manila (the Imperial city where political decision and policy are being decided and made) questioning the alliance with the US after the Reuters reports about the Chinese vaccine and Scot Ritter interviewed, like I said the Filipinos (those middle and upper class) only listen to white people to move things forward and they were devastated to learned the hard truth from them.

 

[LuzinskiJ]

If there is a war in Taiwan the theater will be in the 2nd Island chain and also we maybe dumb BUT we ain't stupid, we allow the US to bases their equipment under EDCA BUT we can restrict their usage by not allowing US personnel to operate it under VFA. So there is a play here and we hold the card if things go to shit. You have to understand that those additional bases are up in Northern Luzon within range of Chinese missile and bombers, one of those is Marcos home province of Ilocos, do you think he will allow his home province to be destroyed? And also there are many people in Metro Manila (the Imperial city where political decision and policy are being decided and made) questioning the alliance with the US after the Reuters reports about the Chinese vaccine and Scot Ritter interviewed, like I said the Filipinos (those middle and upper class) only listen to white people to move things forward and they were devastated to learned the hard truth from them.

I certainly hope that Filipinos will act in their best interest when it comes to that unfathomable contingency. However, if that scenario were to occur, that is a conflict does break out (and I must emphasis that I don't ever wish for it to happen) and the US is not winning, then how much heed will it pay to adhere to an agreement if they think breaking the said agreement will give them an advantage?

 

[ansy1968]

I certainly hope that Filipinos will act in their best interest when it comes to that unfathomable contingency. However, if that scenario were to occur, that is a conflict does break out (and I must emphasis that I don't ever wish for it to happen) and the US is not winning, then how much heed will it pay to adhere to an agreement if they think breaking the said agreement will give them an advantage?

There are strong opposition voices, a powerful one, Regionalism thrive in the Philippine, people identify themselves within their regions instead of being one country, among those voices is Duterte and he hold the whole of Mindanao and part of Eastern Visayas. So if Marcos does something stupid the rest of the region will secede, it may sound crazy but my assumption is that Marcos need the US to perpetuate his family rule and also to rehabilitated his father name. He had experience it during martial law years when the American approve his father dictatorial rule over the whole country. Nothing happen in a vacuum in the Philippine unless the US allowed it.