China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ahojunk]

Are they building a mall there? LOL

And casino. To tempt the bored Viet and pinoy soldiers to defect and apply for asylum. ROTFL.

 

[no_name]

I think that building will be larger than all existing structures on Sansha city, and that is telling something. I'm guessing they will make this place a city entity too eventually.

 

[ahojunk]

I think that building will be larger than all existing structures on Sansha city, and that is telling something. I'm guessing they will make this place a city entity too eventually.

Agree. I think that is China's strategy of strengthening its claims of sovereignty. It will be China's base for humanitarian search & rescue services, oil/gas exploration, fishing, fisheries /aquaculture and tourism.

 

[plawolf]

Agree. I think that is China's strategy of strengthening its claims of sovereignty. It will be China's base for humanitarian search & rescue services, oil/gas exploration, fishing, fisheries /aquaculture and tourism.

No, I think the primary reason for that island expansion would be three-fold.

The most obvious reason is the establishment of a significant military base to shorten reaction time and ease logistics for patrols.

But let's be brutally honest here, China does not need such a base to crush any other the other claiments or even all of them combined militarily if the chips are down. As such, the establishment of such a base would be for convenience rather than out of necessity.

As such, I think the primary reason for the establishment of the military base is to set an example.

You can be forgiven for not realising with the western media blackout on such matters, but the likes of Vietnam and the Philippines have been busy little bees, engaging in numerous exploitation and land reclamation activities of their own.

China has chosen to employ what I would call enhanced reciprocity to deal with such breeches of the status quo. When Vietnam does oil exploitation in disputed territory, China parks a mobile oil rig on its doorstep. When Vietnam tries to create or expand islands, China builds one on a completely different scale.

The message is crystal clear - if you want to play games, we can do it on a level you cannot hope to match.

Asside from the above military and political goals, the third objective for creating such a huge island is the establishment of an indigenous civilian population.

As recent history has demonstrated, flags or markers left on islands are meaningless. If you don't have boots on the ground, someone else will just come remove your flag/markers and put their own in its place.

Soldiers can protect an island, but to truly claim it, you need civilians there.

After a suitably large civilian community has been established, the soldiers could leave. That cuts down on the cost of maintaining your claim on those islands, and also actually enhances your hold.

China won't get much sympathy if someone bombs one of its island forts and kills the troops stationed there, but even the west would find it hard to spin things against China if someone attacks a Chinese island city that only has civilians.

 

[blacklist]

these island is one of the tourism paradise on earth, im sure there alot of ppl like to visit there if possible and affordable.

No, I think the primary reason for that island expansion would be three-fold.

The most obvious reason is the establishment of a significant military base to shorten reaction time and ease logistics for patrols.

But let's be brutally honest here, China does not need such a base to crush any other the other claiments or even all of them combined militarily if the chips are down. As such, the establishment of such a base would be for convenience rather than out of necessity.

As such, I think the primary reason for the establishment of the military base is to set an example.

You can be forgiven for not realising with the western media blackout on such matters, but the likes of Vietnam and the Philippines have been busy little bees, engaging in numerous exploitation and land reclamation activities of their own.

China has chosen to employ what I would call enhanced reciprocity to deal with such breeches of the status quo. When Vietnam does oil exploitation in disputed territory, China parks a mobile oil rig on its doorstep. When Vietnam tries to create or expand islands, China builds one on a completely different scale.

The message is crystal clear - if you want to play games, we can do it on a level you cannot hope to match.

Asside from the above military and political goals, the third objective for creating such a huge island is the establishment of an indigenous civilian population.

As recent history has demonstrated, flags or markers left on islands are meaningless. If you don't have boots on the ground, someone else will just come remove your flag/markers and put their own in its place.

Soldiers can protect an island, but to truly claim it, you need civilians there.

After a suitably large civilian community has been established, the soldiers could leave. That cuts down on the cost of maintaining your claim on those islands, and also actually enhances your hold.

China won't get much sympathy if someone bombs one of its island forts and kills the troops stationed there, but even the west would find it hard to spin things against China if someone attacks a Chinese island city that only has civilians.

 

[no_name]

After a suitably large civilian community has been established, the soldiers could leave. That cuts down on the cost of maintaining your claim on those islands, and also actually enhances your hold.

I'm reading it the other way. Putting down civilian community send an intent of permanent military stationing.

If you have soldier on a rocky outpost. People might just hope that one day they will withdraw. But once civilians settles in, there is usually no willingly removing them.

 

[plawolf]

I'm reading it the other way. Putting down civilian community send an intent of permanent military stationing.

If you have soldier on a rocky outpost. People might just hope that one day they will withdraw. But once civilians settles in, there is usually no willingly removing them.

I think its the same thing we are saying.

Having civilians eliminate the need for a military presence to maintain control and ownership of the island. So the troops could be pulled out at any time without risk of someone else sneaking in to occupy the island.

But having a military presence on those islands may server other goals, so the soldiers may stay. But if they do so, it would be out of choice rather than necessity.

 

[duskylim]

Well IMHO, although wolfie is right about both the having civilian presence as well as claim rights established, the military reasons are quite compelling.

China has no military base closer to Fiery Cross Reef than Woody Island.

And Woody Island really has it's hands full with respect to being an outpost confronting Vietnam.

Against all the other Spratly Islands claimants, China has a rather feeble land-based presence not including naval and coast guard vessels.

It is much better served by having a large physical base from which various patrols and other surveillance activities can originate.

This base can both support and complement the base on Woody Island.

Patrol and naval vessels as well as aircraft and UAV's that can home port here are much more effective and can not only stay on station longer, they can cover much more area in a systematic and meaningful manner.

It can also serve as the hub for anti-submarine activities in the area as well as center for a Chinese-type SOSUS establishment.

Long range search and early-warning radar and electronic warfare systems are just begging to be installed.

I'm not saying the establishment of a permanent civilian presence is without merit, its that in addition to that, the creation of a large, comprehensive, effective military base is so strategically valuable asset for China in the area.

 

[solarz]

Well IMHO, although wolfie is right about both the having civilian presence as well as claim rights established, the military reasons are quite compelling.

China has no military base closer to Fiery Cross Reef than Woody Island.

And Woody Island really has it's hands full with respect to being an outpost confronting Vietnam.

Against all the other Spratly Islands claimants, China has a rather feeble land-based presence not including naval and coast guard vessels.

It is much better served by having a large physical base from which various patrols and other surveillance activities can originate.

This base can both support and complement the base on Woody Island.

Patrol and naval vessels as well as aircraft and UAV's that can home port here are much more effective and can not only stay on station longer, they can cover much more area in a systematic and meaningful manner.

It can also serve as the hub for anti-submarine activities in the area as well as center for a Chinese-type SOSUS establishment.

Long range search and early-warning radar and electronic warfare systems are just begging to be installed.

I'm not saying the establishment of a permanent civilian presence is without merit, its that in addition to that, the creation of a large, comprehensive, effective military base is so strategically valuable asset for China in the area.

I wouldn't be surprised if they had both in mind. A military garrison requires logistic support, and that means civilians. Why go through the trouble of shipping that support from mainland when you can build a town right beside the garrison?

It's a pretty common practice in China for large employers to provide rooming for its employees. The Shanghai Pudong airport, for example, has dozens of residences scattered nearby solely for airport employees. Sinopec builds entire communities, complete with schools and businesses, for its employees.

It would be logical for them to apply the same practice to SCS garrisons.

 

[joshuatree]

Looks like a neighborhood watch was going on at Johnson South Reef. Think it's a 053H1G (Jianghu-V) and a Gepard taking turns checking out the other side.