China's SCS Strategy Thread

[tankphobia]

I just see Phillipenes as a location for the US to lob cruise missiles at Chinese naval forces attempting to blockade Taiwan. As much as posters like to believe otherwise, Russia has already expended thousands of missiles of all sorts at Ukranian infrastructure and military targets yet they are not subdued. The belief that China can simultaneously supress Taiwan and US forces in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines through long range fires alone is too optimistic imo, every new base the US constructs within the zone of conflict will require the PLA planners to reserve another massive salvo to neutralize it, making it a uneven trade.

 

[vincent]

I just see Phillipenes as a location for the US to lob cruise missiles at Chinese naval forces attempting to blockade Taiwan. As much as posters like to believe otherwise, Russia has already expended thousands of missiles of all sorts at Ukranian infrastructure and military targets yet they are not subdued. The belief that China can simultaneously supress Taiwan and US forces in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines through long range fires alone is too optimistic imo, every new base the US constructs within the zone of conflict will require the PLA planners to reserve another massive salvo to neutralize it, making it a uneven trade.

Look at the map and compare the size of Ukraine and the Taiwan Island, then speak.
China can easily build hundreds of thousands of piston-based cruise missiles and fire thousands of them at the same time.

 

[tankphobia]

Look at the map and compare the size of Ukraine and the Taiwan Island, then speak.
China can easily build hundreds of thousands of piston-based cruise missiles and fire thousands of them at the same time.

But that is just Taiwan. Not the rest of first island chain nations. Of course China is already capable of neutralizing Taiwanese forces from long range fires, but Taiwan is not the main threat, other West aligned forces are. The theatre for this conflict will cover a far larger area then the war in Ukraine could ever dream of.

 

[vincent]

But that is just Taiwan. Not the rest of first island chain nations. Of course China is already capable of neutralizing Taiwanese forces from long range fires, but Taiwan is not the main threat, other West aligned forces are. The theatre for this conflict will cover a far larger area then the war in Ukraine could ever dream of.

Chinese ISR and Russian ISR are not at the same level, and Chinese stock of precision munitions should be far higher than Russian’s

Infrastructures on islands cannot be rebuilt easily.

 

[plawolf]

By virtue of the fact that these bases might be used against China in a war. In the event of a conflict, China will not only bomb the places, but also reserve the right to go in there and use i as its own base. It will leave rest of Philippines alone, but as long as America has troop there, it gives China excuse to not only take the base (which they can do easily), but put a small operation there where it can make sure to jam any possible help that Philippines may provide to us military. I can blockade Philippines and give it a choice between economic blockade vs continued trading with China and having base there for the duration of the conflict.

Because Philippines is so much within PLA's attack range, the entire base seems like just such a dumb idea for us military

Occupying those bases seems exactly the kind of needless overreach America is hoping to provoke.

Those bases would be easy to take, but hard to hold tactically, especially in terms of logistics and defence, since the US and allies could easily supply the Philippines with long range rockets to spam at the bases from extended range.

Strategically, such a blatant land grab will not sit well with China’s other neighbours as well as with the global south.

The only PLA boots that should even remotely be on the ground there would be limited numbers of special forces for high value asset extraction/elimination missions, which will be short duration missions by its very nature. There might be scope for more marines to be deployed to secure the bases while combat engineers rig up enough HE to make it practically impossible to try to return them to operational worth for the duration of the conflict. But even that is far fetched, and would in my view be the extreme end of PLA counters for the bases.

As for punitive action against the Philippines should those bases be used against China, well Scarborough shoal will become a new mega base on their front door, and PLA missile strikes can erase their power generation capabilities and return them to the pre-electrical age. That should be punishment enough in the short term.

 

[Coalescence]

As for punitive action against the Philippines should those bases be used against China, well Scarborough shoal will become a new mega base on their front door, and PLA missile strikes can erase their power generation capabilities and return them to the pre-electrical age. That should be punishment enough in the short term.

I think this might be a bit too much for punitive action as the effect will be felt by the civilians living there, and may make it more difficult to repair relationship post-conflict, but building up Scarborough Shoal would be a more appropriate as a punishment for joining the conflict. As for dealing with the bases on the North, could China deny the base instead of occupying, by deploying mines and loitering munitions?

 

[plawolf]

I think this might be a bit too much for punitive action as the effect will be felt by the civilians living there, and may make it more difficult to repair relationship post-conflict, but building up Scarborough Shoal would be a more appropriate as a punishment for joining the conflict. As for dealing with the bases on the North, could China deny the base instead of occupying, by deploying mines and loitering munitions?

Normally yes, but in the event of AR, the period of China restraining and hiding it’s power would be truly dead and buried and a new paradigm will come into reality.

Gone would be the days of carrots only Chinese diplomacy, to be replaced with a carrot and stick approach. The point of the stick is to inspire fear and dread, and how you introduce it will matter a great deal in terms of how the rest of the world responds to the threat of your stick.

In the event the Philippines needlessly involves itself directly in AR, that would be a minnow power crossing China’s ultimate red line. A certain degree of overreaction is warranted and required by China to set an example least any other minor powers who harbours delusions of grandeur gets any stupid ideas. Especially since unlike SK or Japan, the Philippines isn’t under military occupation of the US and is a democracy that can and did chose this fate.

 

[TK3600]

Anyone that provide base to enemy is full belligent. China is justified to occupy entire country at war if needed.

 

[CMP]

Anyone that provide base to enemy is full belligent. China is justified to occupy entire country at war if needed.

The costs of doing so vastly outweigh the benefits for China. It's not even close. I agree with the idea that in war, the threats should be neutralized from a distance and then the Philippines should be left alone.

 

[birdlikefood]

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