China's SCS Strategy Thread

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
But what I am saying is that, economy doesn't solution and deepen ties which can resolved these kind of stregic issue. Most of the country doesn't want to lose their land and territories.
apples and oranges.

doing businesses with each other improves Chinese people’s and people in other countries’ lives, strengthen the economies of both sides and increase the national strength of both.

Territorial disputes can be solved in a later day

Do you know there are territorial disputes between Canada and the US? Did they stop trading with each other?
 

MwRYum

Major
India and China is also doing business, I don't see Chinese companies who don't want to come to india, it's just indian government now doesn't allow much investment from china , similarly china and USA is also doing business.

But what I am saying is that, economy doesn't solution and deepen ties which can resolved these kind of stregic issue. Most of the country doesn't want to lose their land and territories.

I don't see why Vietnam and Indonesia and other members of Asean will give up all of their claim for sake of economy. They are mostly swing state and not allies of china, as their economy will grow they will diversify their economy with other countries more and not be dependent on one country i.e china.
It's called "given time" and/or "in due course" and other jargon, but the spirit is still the same - let's set it aside and wait till "a better time"; until then, let's keep doing business.

In some way, you can say the Chinese assumption is that as the resurgence continues, China will be in an even better bargaining position in the "foreseeable future", thus can nail down a more favorable deal. Economy is but one facade of the said bargaining position.

That, versus what now that we may/have to shoot each other with missiles, if you know what I mean.

My ultranationalist persona scoffed such sentiment as "kick the can down the road", but my realist persona reckon the wisdom therein.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
India and China is also doing business, I don't see Chinese companies who don't want to come to india, it's just indian government now doesn't allow much investment from china , similarly china and USA is also doing business.
Most Chinese companies want nothing to do with India. Just because a few made bids that were rejected doesn't mean you can ignore all those that didn't even apply.
But what I am saying is that, economy doesn't solution and deepen ties which can resolved these kind of stregic issue. Most of the country doesn't want to lose their land and territories.

I don't see why Vietnam and Indonesia and other members of Asean will give up all of their claim for sake of economy. They are mostly swing state and not allies of china, as their economy will grow they will diversify their economy with other countries more and not be dependent on one country i.e china.
Creating a prosperous Asia is good for China. As the West is not a reliable trading partner, you want to build alternatives rather that find yourself alone in a barren wasteland. China's trade with Southeast Asian nations is growing every year, benefitting China, those countries, and all of Asia. Whether they become more aggressive in those disputes depends on the power dynamic. China's economy and even more, its military, far outgrows any and all SEA forces and that's from a starting point that's already a runaway in favor of China. There is absolutely no reason to sacrifice China's own economic interests to depress these nations.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
What is china thinking ? Can these kind of economic proposal solve south china sea issue ? Economic integration/ dependency haven't solved territorial and strategic claim . I don't think none of the south china sea country would give up their claim s their economy will grow they will become more firence in their claim and it will also help third party mostly hegemon to come and play it's part.

All countries give more importance to security over economy, because security is related to domestic politics unlike economy .

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wowee...Please avoid projecting a MOSTLY INDIAN PERSPECTIVE AND VIEW OF THE WORLD into ASEAN countries because it shows how utterly colored your views are on this complex situation. I can speak much more confidently about the Philippines because I had the privileged of living in that country for many years. Learnt 2 local Filipino dialects (Bisaya, Tagalog) along the way, and was able to really immersed myself with the Filipino culture. So in short, I know more about the PHIL than you and what I can tell you is that you're comment on the Philippine situation is off the mark. To suggest that Filipinos will forego ECONOMIC PROSPERITY in EXCHANGE FOR PSEUDO SECURITY/slavery provided by America is BLATANTLY ABSURD and highly insulting to that country's people who's experiencing sky high prices in agricultural products like onions which has skyrocketed as one of the most expensive in the world 1 kg = $37.90 U.S.D. and if the idiotic/corrupt Marcos Jr. keeps bumbling at his job handling the Agriculture portfolio do you honestly think that American security establishment can and will protect him from the hungry and angry masses that are not only getting desperate due to economic malaise, increased in criminal activity, corrupt and inefficient governance, and a looming war with China where the average Filipinos are not told the truth of what will happen to their country if the idiot President keeps leading their country at the primrose path with America vis-a-vis EDCA basing, inviting Japanese to partner with the PH to patrol the SCS?

I would see Marcos Jr. getting impeach before that shit happens.
 
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Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
It seems that this now ex National Security Advisor was and is instrumental in having Japan joining the Philippines in joint patrol in their West Philippine Sea. She's animated on this show and seems convinced to challenge China by invoking America to join them in challenging their issues in SCS.

She's dismissive of the advisors surrounding the current President that she labelled as "AMBOYS" which is a term for American Boys, meaning to say that these advisors most of whom have served in the military are nothing but an extension and puppets of American interests. She's beseeching the PResident to have civilians provide him with another set of advice and not just solely rely from military only advice.

I don't really know what would be the right course of action for China in dealing with the Philippine case since there's clearly an element here that do not want part of the looming conflict between the two "hegemon" as Dr. Carlos puts it. She does not want a war at her country's doorstep for obvious reasons but then is sort of dismissive and unrealistic with respect to the prospect of PHilippines getting or pushing their products to places like Turkey as one of the replacement markets for China so that her country does not become too dependent and therefore beholden to China's so-called belligerent actions against her country.

What is your take on this situation and her assessment @ansy1968 @PhSt and other Filipino-Chinese or anyone in general regarding this very thorny issues that clearly evokes strong passionate response from the Filipinos.

 
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MwRYum

Major
I don't really know what would be the right course of action for China in dealing with the Philippine case since there's clearly an element here that do not want part of the looming conflict between the two "hegemon" as Dr. Carlos puts it. She does not want a war at her country's doorstep for obvious reasons but then is sort of dismissive and unrealistic with respect to the prospect of PHilippines getting or pushing their products to places like Turkey as one of the replacement markets for China so that her country does not become too dependent and therefore beholden to China's so-called belligerent actions against her country.
And what did that old song's lyrics said?
朋友來了有好酒
若是那豺狼來了
迎接它的有獵槍
If Philippines so choose not to be the friend that we can share fine wine with, and to make it worse they choose to to be yet another of those jackals, what option do we have?
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
And what did that old song's lyrics said?

If Philippines so choose not to be the friend that we can share fine wine with, and to make it worse they choose to side with the jackals, what option do we have?
Since I understand Tagalog (lived in the Philippines for close to a decade) I must say that Dr.Carlos was all over the place with respect to her passionate anger, disillusionment, combative rhetoric, and dismissive towards the mostly military centric advisors that surrounds their current President. On the one hand, she does acknowledge that America is indeed needling China with respect to their most sensitive issue which is Taiwan, yet, she firmly and passionately believes that China's belligerent actions against her country must be met with a firm embrace to the U.S. and by also inviting Japan, Australia among others willing to participate in trying to squeeze, pressure China into some sort of respect of the Philippine EEZ. This idea in my opinion is not only FUBAR since it'll further invite China's stronger response contrary to the result envisions by this lady. By inviting Japan into the SCS dispute knowing or perhaps egregiously ignorant of China's bitter history with Japan (Taiwan is the bitter product of that conflict) and Australia both countries that are non-claimant of the SCS is essentially making the situation worse not better. The Philippines does not a China policy expert or historians that are expert or at least well-versed in Chinese history they can lean that their government can utilize to better understand China's historical perspective so that it can at least try to understand China's point of view?

Her trade advise is even worse than that of Mr. Navarro (Trump's genius advisor) when she (Clarita Carlos) advocates for redirecting Philippine top agricultural produce away from China and to other countries like Turkey? without putting into the account the added logistic cost, the volume of sales or potential sales based on the demand and size of that country's market, not to mention the GDP per capita of China vs Turkey which if am not mistaken are comparable.

I expected better from Dr. Carlos but it seems her understanding of geopolitics is rather limited in scope, vision, not to mention pedestrian understanding of China's history, the western and Japanese aggressions against China that's impacting China's current geopolitical environment. Why America is acting the way it is towards China since it seeks to disrupt, if not destroy China's ascent and the coming replacement of America as the number 1 undisputed economic giant of the world. The need to be hyper realistic that the Philippines is a small country, with meagre or next to nothing military conventional power, an economy that's increasingly focus on service sector, agriculture based and don't really have a strong manufacturing base even within ASEAN countries.

While I am very sympathetic to the plight and economic struggles that Philippine fishermen experience against a very strict monitoring of China's PLAN/Coastguards since "fishing plays a key role in the Philippine economy, especially for coastal communities living along its 36,289km coastline, the fifth-longest in the world, and employs 1.5 million people, contributing PHP 196 billion to the country's Gross Domestic Product."
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I am quite baffled as to why the Philippines and China can't find ways to work on this important source of economic livelihood for both the Chinese and Filipinos that would satisfy both sides.
 

MwRYum

Major
Since I understand Tagalog (lived in the Philippines for close to a decade) I must say that Dr.Carlos was all over the place with respect to her passionate anger, disillusionment, combative rhetoric, and dismissive towards the mostly military centric advisors that surrounds their current President. On the one hand, she does acknowledge that America is indeed needling China with respect to their most sensitive issue which is Taiwan, yet, she firmly and passionately believes that China's belligerent actions against her country must be met with a firm embrace to the U.S. and by also inviting Japan, Australia among others willing to participate in trying to squeeze, pressure China into some sort of respect of the Philippine EEZ. This idea in my opinion is not only FUBAR since it'll further invite China's stronger response contrary to the result envisions by this lady. By inviting Japan into the SCS dispute knowing or perhaps egregiously ignorant of China's bitter history with Japan (Taiwan is the bitter product of that conflict) and Australia both countries that are non-claimant of the SCS is essentially making the situation worse not better. The Philippines does not a China policy expert or historians that are expert or at least well-versed in Chinese history they can lean that their government can utilize to better understand China's historical perspective so that it can at least try to understand China's point of view?

While I am very sympathetic to the plight and economic struggles that Philippine fishermen experience against a very strict monitoring of China's PLAN/Coastguards since "fishing plays a key role in the Philippine economy, especially for coastal communities living along its 36,289km coastline, the fifth-longest in the world, and employs 1.5 million people, contributing PHP 196 billion to the country's Gross Domestic Product."
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I am quite baffled as to why the Philippines and China can't find ways to work on this important source of economic livelihood for both the Chinese and Filipinos that would satisfy both sides.
For those who've a general idea of Philippine's modern history, one'd have no illusion of Philippine's siding with the US, for the mentality has been deeply ingrained in Manila's ruling elites' psyche.

As such, a change of mindset will, unfortunately yet unavoidably, require a "change of master" if you may. In other words, for Philippines to abandon the generations-long tradition of siding with the US, will first require US be ejected from South China Sea. One need not imagine to reckon the daunting odds such undertaking it'll be. Pax Americana ain't calling it quit anytime soon, mind you.
 

montyp165

Senior Member
For those who've a general idea of Philippine's modern history, one'd have no illusion of Philippine's siding with the US, for the mentality has been deeply ingrained in Manila's ruling elites' psyche.

As such, a change of mindset will, unfortunately yet unavoidably, require a "change of master" if you may. In other words, for Philippines to abandon the generations-long tradition of siding with the US, will first require US be ejected from South China Sea. One need not imagine to reckon the daunting odds such undertaking it'll be. Pax Americana ain't calling it quit anytime soon, mind you.
It is as one would expect to be as bloody and arduous as the Pacific War between the US and Imperial Japan, in this case however China is now in the US position vs the US in Imperial Japan's position, and as such the US really doesn't know what its facing due to its ideological insanity which again now parallels Imperial Japan.
 
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