China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ansy1968]

No matter how collaborator regimes conspire, they've failed to challenge the status quo of Chinese ownership over SCS. And with Vietnam, Cambodia along with Burma moving towards an openly pro-Chinese stance, ASEAN will further be paralyzed from being able to take collective action, even as such collective action has failed in the past.

American practice divide and conquer and to inundate us with a lot of pressure both economic and political IF we don't tow the line, remember the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which destroy the economy of ASEAN and Indonesia in particular, we know the culprit and our industry had been gobbled up by International Financial institution for cheap.. Those industries takes decades and hard work to establish and for them to divide it and sell it for huge profit at our expense. Do you think we can forget that?

By diplomacy or by force, China will keep defending its lines, continue to reject illegal American influences as well as advise both the Philippines or anyone else to do the same. If they listen or not is not a major concern. The Philippines is not Russia with a million man army, large air force and thousands of nukes. They're not even Ukraine or North Korea that have a million man army and not much else.

Bro most in ASEAN know that China owns the SCS, those that don't (Philippine) are greedy because they want to have the oil below for themselves. Cooperation is a win win formula, the American and the local oligarch (Manny Pangilinan) conspire because their objective align to exploit those resource for themselves, which drive our foreign policy. Marcos is part of the Oligarchy and this political exercise is just for show, his real goal is to maintain it for perpetuity.

 

[ansy1968]

As long as Marcos can sign the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea that should be the least he can do for the region as a whole. Maybe Sarah Duterte can pick up where her dad left it, after Marcos the weak is voted out or replaced..

Bro my take of the situation, Marcos failed to renegotiate the agreed MOU with China regarding the oil deal (the greedy part) and came back empty handed after his state visit, so he have to pivot back to America for more aid. Just look at the event afterwards, the court intervene and the so called base access agreement. This is a work of an oligarch because China rebuff them, the China visit is an exploratory way of gaining influence inside the CCP, just look at Marcos entourage, most are oligarch dress as businessman...lol

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Jan 11, 2023 — A 2016 ruling by a United Nations-backed arbitration tribunal invalidated China's extensive territorial claims based on historical grounds in ...


state

 

[Overbom]

As long as Marcos can sign the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea that should be the least he can do for the region as a whole. Maybe Sarah Duterte can pick up where her dad left it, after Marcos the weak is voted out or replaced..

According to the American Empire framework, Marcos will never sign the Code of Conduct but IMO you brought up an interesting element in the discussion. If viewed from another perspective, (hypothetically) Marcos actually signing the code of conduct (whatever that may be) would actually be a genuine balancing act between China and US when you factor in allowing US bases on its soil

I will be honest, if something like that happened, my American Empire framework would be dead and buried, and other frameworks would arise challenging its main point that a big American Empire consists of imperial and vassal territory.

However I got to say that i am pretty confident that my framework will be ok, as so far it has withstood the test of time for the past decade at least. Interesting point though, thank you for your contribution.

 

[ansy1968]

According to the American Empire framework, Marcos will never sign the Code of Conduct but IMO you brought up an interesting element in the discussion. If viewed from another perspective, (hypothetically) Marcos actually signing the code of conduct (whatever that may be) would actually be a genuine balancing act between China and US when you factor in allowing US bases on its soil

I will be honest, if something like that happened, my American Empire framework would be dead and buried, and other frameworks would arise challenging its main point that a big American Empire consists of imperial and vassal territory.

However I got to say that i am pretty confident that my framework will be ok, as so far it has withstood the test of time for the past decade at least. Interesting point though, thank you for your contribution.

Marcos watch the movie Wall Street and may be inspired by Gordon Gekko's quote "greed, for lack of a better word, is good"....lol

China told him take it or leave it and he choose the latter.

 

[Overbom]

Marcos watch the movie Wall Street and may be inspired by Gordon Gekko's quote "greed, for lack of a better word, is good"....lol

I mean its all hypotheticals now, some would even say that this is some high-grade hopium.
But if Marcos indeed played it like that, then hats off, it would be a magnificent geopolitical play.

Just for the record though, I stand by my framework which basically says that Marcos will never sign the (or at least a China-friendly) code of conduct with China

 

[ansy1968]

I mean its all hypotheticals now, some would even say that this is some high-grade hopium.
But if Marcos indeed played it like that, then hats off, it would be a magnificent geopolitical play.

Bro he thinks that with his overwhelming victory China will give him due respect like the Chinese bestowed to his father and Duterte. Well he got a rude awakening because Respect is Earn Not easily Given.

Just for the record though, I stand by my framework which basically says that Marcos will never sign the (or at least a China-friendly) code of conduct with China

At least a legal frame work for future generation to work on, it may not be this President BUT who knows. I always said the US is far away and China is our neighbor, I may likely see Indonesia to be a regional powerhouse during my lifetime as they work with the Chinese and us the Philippine being overtaken by Cambodia.

 

[MwRYum]

Bro he thinks that with his overwhelming victory China will give him due respect like the Chinese bestowed to his father and Duterte. Well he got a rude awakening because Respect is Earn Not easily Given.

At least a legal frame work for future generation to work on, it may not be this President BUT who knows. I always said the US is far away and China is our neighbor, I may likely see Indonesia to be a regional powerhouse during my lifetime as they work with the Chinese and us the Philippine being overtaken by Cambodia.

To have a Code-of Conduct ironed out between ASEAN member states and China is not in the best interest of the US. And that's Philippine's angle in getting the better cut for itself. Such angle is classic and has yet proven to be of detriment to Philippine's interest.

Should there be a change to that angle, then the patron there be will first be changed...and seriously, such prospect isn't gonna look pretty for Filipinos, unless they're ready to weather what can be a decade of upheavals before things get better, and a major change to its national boundaries.

 

[ansy1968]

To have a Code-of Conduct ironed out between ASEAN member states and China is not in the best interest of the US. And that's Philippine's angle in getting the better cut for itself. Such angle is classic and has yet proven to be of detriment to Philippine's interest.

Should there be a change to that angle, then the patron there be will first be changed...and seriously, such prospect isn't gonna look pretty for Filipinos, unless they're ready to weather what can be a decade of upheavals before things get better, and a major change to its national boundaries.

Well brother the Philippines thought that with the arbitration, they have a leverage BUT to China it's nothing and you're right the US needed that pretext to legalize its FON. For ASEAN members like Indonesia and Vietnam (@Overbom bro this is the reason why the two of them sign a cooperate agreement in the SCS) they will never recognized that decision because both together with Taiwan and Malaysia had competing claims. China is being targeted because with the artificial island it negated the strategic value of the Philippine and IPSO FACTO the SCS become a Chinese lake.

ASEAN had come to realization the intention of the US (G20 Bali summit) and they don't want a part of it, who want a bully/gangster to enter your neighborhood, it's like inviting a drug dealer that sell drugs on the street legally. That's what the US FON is to us ,like the Aussies, an uninvited interloper that refused to leave.

 

[vincent]

What is china thinking ? Can these kind of economic proposal solve south china sea issue ? Economic integration/ dependency haven't solved territorial and strategic claim . I don't think none of the south china sea country would give up their claim s their economy will grow they will become more firence in their claim and it will also help third party mostly hegemon to come and play it's part.

All countries give more importance to security over economy, because security is related to domestic politics unlike economy .

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Chinese aren’t like Indians, we can continue do business with people who we have disagreements with.

 

[yearofrooster]

During the course of the 2015 South China Sea arbitral tribunal hearing, the UN Secretary General made an announcement that the arbitral tribunal was not related to UN.

It would be very much appreciated if any one can send me a http link to this announcement or a copy of the announcement.

Thank you very much.​