China's SCS Strategy Thread

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Biscuits

Major
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Jono said:
that begs the question: democracy in a developing country, a Boon or Bane in terms of economic progress?
for long-term development, you need national unity, a visionary grand strategy, a coherent working policy, achievable goals, and strong stable leaders/governments who have the determination to push for success despite opposition, interference, and initial setbacks.
Does the Philippines, or any other "democratic" developing countries for that matter, possess all these favorable factors, and be strong enough to resist US pressure, derailment, and sabotage? The answer is most likely No, IMHO.
So I don't have high expectations that the visit of Mr. Marcos Junior to Beijing will bear significant achievements for both countries.
For one, the US will simply not allow Marcos to sign the DOC ( Declaration of Conducts on SCS ) with China during this visit, otherwise, as an outsider, the US Navy will lose its pretext or not have any anchorage to interfere in the affairs of SCS with impunity.
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In general you want a government that is as democratic as possible while not involving people to the point they have to deal with issues they're unqualified and/or don't give a shit about, the closer the people are to the decisionmakers, the lower the chance of failed policies. However, most people don't care about most issues, so the limited interest you have, you need to use it to gather the correct opinions.

Philippines cannot call itself as having any large degree of democracy as long as it doesn't exert its own control within its domestic and foreign policy. Even if that issue was solved, I'd say on most points regarding social issues, there is no guarantee of trust between the ruled and the rulers.

Democracy is like a scale, of how closely the government represents the people, and its never really going to be perfect. It is (in my opinion) only beneficial to be higher on the scale.

Most developing countries are choked back precisely because they lack popular representation. Their governments are dictators, viceroys or compradors - call them whatever they want, what they have in common is that they bend over to larger outside interests for their own gain, betraying those they're supposed to represent.
 
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
In general you want a government that is as democratic as possible while not involving people to the point they have to deal with issues they're unqualified and/or don't give a shit about, the closer the people are to the decisionmakers, the lower the chance of failed policies. However, most people don't care about most issues, so the limited interest you have, you need to use it to gather the correct opinions.

Philippines cannot call itself as having any large degree of democracy as long as it doesn't exert its own control within its domestic and foreign policy. Even if that issue was solved, I'd say on most points regarding social issues, there is no guarantee of trust between the ruled and the rulers.

Democracy is like a scale, of how closely the government represents the people, and its never really going to be perfect. It is (in my opinion) only beneficial to be higher on the scale.

Most developing countries are choked back precisely because they lack popular representation. Their governments are dictators, viceroys or compradors - call them whatever they want, what they have in common is that they bend over to larger outside interests for their own gain, betraying those they're supposed to represent.
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Bro what is a democracy anyway? I can equate our democracy is similar to Ceasar Rome were Optimates oligarchy control the Senate, there is no upward mobility, no new talent to speak of as major gov't position are being held by a few political families, from high top (presidency and the senate) to the lowest bottom (barangay officials). A tumor need to be taken out BUT it entails major sacrifices that the middle class will not accept. That is the solution to enlarge the middle class cause the poor can be bought, so how to implement change, simply by opening up the economy to competition and to level the playing field. With economic independence you can affect change.
 
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ansy1968

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ACuriousPLAFan said:
Interesting development...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1612448478982209536

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Bro an insight, it is much ado over nothing. :) There is a new law retroactively said that the new AFP chief of staff will serve for 3 years instead of a rotating door policy of new appointees serving only a year. There is an administration gaffe Since the former Chief of staff is due to retire this Feb 4 2023 ( the new law will only apply on this year appointment since he was appointed last year) and the law stated that there will only one 4 star general serving, so they have to recalled the new appointment until he retire. It's embarrassing and it shows the weakness of Marcos decision making and the people he appoints, right now he is enjoying a honeymoon with the press BUT I for one are not impress, with only 6 months on the job instead of focusing on his job, he created a lot of bureaucratic layers instead of clear state policy.

Game of the generals?​

1807138.jpg

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- The Philippine Star
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January 10, 2023 | 12:00am

President Bongbong Marcos reappointed Gen. Andres Centino as chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
This places Lt. Gen. Bartolome Bacarro in a highly embarrassing situation.
This is the first time in the history of the AFP that a former chief of staff replaced the general who replaced him.


The President appointed Bacarro AFP chief, replacing Centino, in August 2022.
Why did Junior oust Bacarro, whom he appointed as Centino’s replacement, and re-install the latter? Read on to find out.
It seems Junior still has to master the skills his father, Ferdinand Sr., had for decisive leadership.
* * *

Centino’s reappointment as AFP chief set off rumors of demoralization among the AFP’s officer corps and rank-and-file soldiers.
A very reliable source said Gen. Rodolfo Azurin, Philippine National Police chief, ordered all PNP units on red alert following the reported mass resignation of
Defense Secretary Jose Faustino Jr., other defense personnel and military officers.
“Require 100 percent presence (of all PNP personnel) and monitor movements of AFP troops and prepare DMR (digital mobile radio) and tactical radio communication network... con-duct simex (simulation exercises) on CP defense plan in communications network,” Azurin’s orders to his men supposedly read.
Another order from Azurin was for the PNP’s elite unit, the Special Action Force (SAF), to be on “war” footing due to AFP troop movements.
But what did all that mean? Well, a repeat of the 1989 mutiny may happen. That was when rebel troops nearly toppled president Cory Aquino’s government by a hair’s breadth.
The timely interference of the US Air Force F-4 (Phantom) jets based in Clark Air Base, which buzzed antiquated Philippine Air Force jets about to bomb Malacañang, saved the day.
Here was how the order from the PNP high command in Camp Crame read:
“All SAF units are to stay in FULL ALERT due to destabilization movements from the AFP.
“In this regard, all Battalion Commanders are directed to hold all leaves and passes for the meantime and conduct regular accounting to your respective personnel.
“Further, let’s ensure the operational readiness of our personnel and equipment (move/shoot/communicate) particularly in dealing with the said situation when the need arises, and be ready to move upon the orders of proper authorities.”
Let’s pray a shooting war doesn’t erupt between the PNP and the AFP.
Should that happen – heaven forbid – the PNP will be clobbered.
Only the SAF, the PNP’s commando group, would be able to stand up to the AFP. But the SAF is a small unit compared to the entire AFP, and its members wouldn’t obey their officers, undisciplined as most of them are.
* * *
How serious is the present situation?
As it is, neither President Junior nor Defense Secretary Jose Faustino, a retired Army general, attended the unconventional change of command from Bartolome Bacarro to Andres Cen-tino.
President Rodrigo Duterte appointed Centino. He was set to retire on Feb. 4, 2023.
But President Junior cut short Centino’s stint by replacing him with Bacarro, who would have been the first beneficiary of a new law (Republic Act 11709) president
Duterte signed, which provides a three-year term for the AFP chief of staff.
The reinstatement of Centino as AFP chief of staff, which was never done before, was apparently meant to correct an egregious blunder on the part of President BBM. Before this, Cen-tino had a pending nomination to become the Philippine Ambassador to India and Nepal.
This caused demoralization among the troops. Bacarro is a highly respected officer because he is a Medal of Valor awardee.
The Medal of Valor is the highest award the AFP can give a military man. It is the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor of the United States Armed Forces.
There have been only 41 Medal of Valor recipients since 1935. Seventeen of them are still alive, among them Bacarro.
 
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PhSt

PhSt

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Not sure if this is a positive or negative development in PH's dealings with China, I have a bad feeling that the US is starting to use its 5th column lemmings in the PH to attempt to sabotage relations and force the government to turn the country into an Asian Ukraine, there are rumors that the US will use the Philippines as a distraction from the impending PLA liberation of Taiwan. So basically the US will initiate a shooting war between the PH and China, the US plans to sacrifice the Philippines in an attempt to use Filipinos as a meat shield to protect Taiwan because the US deems Taiwanese semiconductor facilities as strategically important assets. I think its time for concerned Filipinos in the country to raise this issue with the Marcos administration before its too late!
 
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ansy1968

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PhSt said:
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Not sure if this is a positive or negative development in PH's dealings with China, I have a bad feeling that the US is starting to use its 5th column lemmings in the PH to attempt to sabotage relations and force the government to turn the country into an Asian Ukraine, there are rumors that the US will use the Philippines as a distraction from the impending PLA liberation of Taiwan. So basically the US will initiate a shooting war between the PH and China, the US plans to sacrifice the Philippines in an attempt to use Filipinos as a meat shield to protect Taiwan because the US deems Taiwanese semiconductor facilities as strategically important assets. I think its time for concerned Filipinos in the country to raise this issue with the Marcos administration before its too late!
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Basically the court decision is based on Philippine Constitution that majority meaning 60% should be owned by Filipinos. This decision will only reinforce the Chinese because the Philippine quarrel is not with them BUT with all claimants. Diluting the American narrative of China expansionism. :rolleyes:

The Oil MOU deal is 60/40 in favor of the Philippine and from my understanding China is hesitating until the Philippine sign a COC in the SCS in order to finalized the oil deal. In this way a legal framework is done and approve between both parties, I think here is where the US will focus their attention because a deal will nullify their FON operation BUT what are the incentives for the Philippines to follow the American diktat, we may get oil for cheap instead of other Claimant siphoning it and you have to follow an oligarch statement to know where the wind is blowing.:cool:

MVP: Marcos trip to China a ‘good’ opportunity​

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- The Philippine Star
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December 7, 2022 | 12:00am


MVP: Marcos trip to China a �good� opportunity

Manuel V. Pangilinan
STAR / File
MANILA, Philippines — Business titan Manuel V. Pangilinan sees President Marcos’ upcoming state visit to China as a good opportunity for both countries to discuss issues about oil and gas exploration in the West Philippine Sea.
“It’s a good time to talk about it because the President I think is scheduled to go to Beijing in January. It’s probably on the agenda, I don’t know, but they should talk about it,” Pangilinan said.
President Marcos has accepted Chinese President Xi Jinping’s invitation for him to go to China on a state visit in January.


Pangilinan chairs PXP Energy Corp., which holds interest in two petroleum exploration service contracts in the West Philippine Sea.
PXP Energy earlier expressed its readiness to resume activities in Service Contract (SC) 75 and SC 72 if allowed to do so. Pangilinan, however, said they would need a go signal from the government first.

“The assets are owned by the state. We’re merely concessionaires,” he said.
A previous force majeure imposed on SC 75 and SC 72 was lifted by the Department of Energy (DOE) on Oct. 16, 2020, allowing its contractors to resume exploration activities.
PXP and Forum Energy Ltd., however, received last April 6 a directive from the DOE to “put all on hold all exploration activities for SC 75 and SC 72 until such time that the Security, Justice and Peace Coordinating Cluster (SJPCC) has issued the necessary clearance to proceed.”
The SJPCC agreed that prior approval of the said cluster is required before any oil exploration activities in the West Philippine Sea are allowed.
PXP Energy and Forum suspended all activities in both SCs in compliance with the directive.
Last October, the DOE granted the declaration of force majeure for SC 75 and SC 72 effective April 6 this year.
A force majeure event excuses contractors from performing their respective obligations and allows extension of exploration period under the service contracts.
Listed PXP holds 50 percent interest in SC 75 located in Northwest Palawan.
Forum Energy, in which PXP holds a direct and indirect interest of 79.13 percent, has a 70 percent participating interest in SC 72 – also in Northwest Palawan – through its wholly owned subsidiary Forum. PXP has a total economic interest of 54.36 percent in SC 72.
 
Temstar

Temstar

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Registered Member
Maikeru said:
Why send expensive TELs to the islands when there's nowhere for them to really drive to? Island based UVLS would surely be a better, cheaper and more useful option?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618003630044643334
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I recall last year there was a PLAN floatilla sailing up Sea of Japan with a ship with some unknown object stashed on the helicopter deck covered under a fabric blanket and people were speculating that it may be something like a Tor being trialled at sea. Back then all that fight over Snake Island was still fresh in everyone's mind.

Then in a video Shilao said putting a land AD on a moving ship isn't plug and play. Land based AD are often designed with the assumption that its elements will be stationary when it's looking for targets and launching missiles. If you put them on a moving naval ship it messes them up unless there's special provision for them to work this way.

One would think naval AD can still work when stationary, since ships have to be able to defend themselves at anchor too. Conversely this greater versatility might make them uneconomical if you intend to only use them on land in fixed emplacements.

Also even on a small island you would think having no set location and being able to relocate offers some advantage in survivability compared to completely fixed positions. You could also load them onto ships and relocate to different island to strengthen their defence in reaction to conditions.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Major
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Jono said:
that begs the question: democracy in a developing country, a Boon or Bane in terms of economic progress?
for long-term development, you need national unity, a visionary grand strategy, a coherent working policy, achievable goals, and strong stable leaders/governments who have the determination to push for success despite opposition, interference, and initial setbacks.
Does the Philippines, or any other "democratic" developing countries for that matter, possess all these favorable factors, and be strong enough to resist US pressure, derailment, and sabotage? The answer is most likely No, IMHO.
So I don't have high expectations that the visit of Mr. Marcos Junior to Beijing will bear significant achievements for both countries.
For one, the US will simply not allow Marcos to sign the DOC ( Declaration of Conducts on SCS ) with China during this visit, otherwise, as an outsider, the US Navy will lose its pretext or not have any anchorage to interfere in the affairs of SCS with impunity.
Click to expand...
Democracy fails very consistently to bring a country stronger. Almost every ascending power past 300 years did it through centralisation instead. That is not to say democracy is worthless. It excels at maintaining status quo and prevents tyranny. However development is a very uncomfortable thing to do, it touch the lunch of many interest groups. Sometimes a tyrant just do it better than a nice democratic leader.
 
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