China's SCS Strategy Thread

[tphuang]

@tphuang Sir in this geopolitical game, you need to gamble and sometimes giving something is to received something. What is China strategic objective? We all know the answer and it's succeeding, the oil for me is insignificant what's important is w/o China participation nobody will be able to extract those oils and will remain untapped. That for me is power, so everybody need to be in China good grace....lol

Now a benign power know how to used its influence and China who aspired to be one should be magnanimous.

I'm not sure China knows how to be magnanimous. At the end of the day, Chinese leadership needs to be very careful about how it deals with Philippines and coming to an agreement over territorial issues will be necessary to truly make Philippines one of its closest partners in the world. Being overly aggressive with its CCG is not a great way to handle the situation.

Then nothing change, you replace a imperialist with another one, China in her history never see the Philippines as a threat, if so we will be speaking Chinese as our national language....lol What China want is a peaceful neighborhood for her to grow and trade. Such proximity the Chinese don't need a military presence like the Americans do. So her economic strategy is the right one, as the region is starving for development.

Well, what China needs is a port on the westpac facing US side that it can install build certain dual use facilities, radar stations and allow for port visit/replenishment. Now, the presence of such a facility could only happen if China and Philippines have very close relationships in security realm. It's quite possible Philippines would not be comfortable with such a facility. In which case, China would at minimum want Philippines to not allow hosting for US/Australian aircraft or military personnel that make frequent spying flights very close to Chinese air space.

It would seem to me having Philippines dropping VFA in exchange for joint exploration that favors Philippines and ceding Scarborough Shoal would be well worth it. I may be the minority on this forum with that view point.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

It would seem to me having Philippines dropping VFA in exchange for joint exploration

This is would be a great proposal if that was the whole sentence, but the problems start with

that favors Philippines

and really escalate with

and ceding Scarborough Shoal would be well worth it

that's a non-starter.

You're right that China doesn't know how to be magnanimous, but when was a great power ever magnanimous? Was the US magnanimous? The US colonized the Philippines and today enjoys a 94% approval rating there. Filipinos love America more than Americans do. You don't get power in the world by being magnanimous, you get it by adopting the Mike Tyson philosophy: I'll fuck you till you love me. You get it by beating the fear of you into people.

I think ansy talks too much, but he's absolutely right with what he said about replacing one imperialist with another - that's exactly what this is about.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

I'm not sure China knows how to be magnanimous. At the end of the day, Chinese leadership needs to be very careful about how it deals with Philippines and coming to an agreement over territorial issues will be necessary to truly make Philippines one of its closest partners in the world. Being overly aggressive with its CCG is not a great way to handle the situation.


Well, what China needs is a port on the westpac facing US side that it can install build certain dual use facilities, radar stations and allow for port visit/replenishment. Now, the presence of such a facility could only happen if China and Philippines have very close relationships in security realm. It's quite possible Philippines would not be comfortable with such a facility. In which case, China would at minimum want Philippines to not allow hosting for US/Australian aircraft or military personnel that make frequent spying flights very close to Chinese air space.

It would seem to me having Philippines dropping VFA in exchange for joint exploration that favors Philippines and ceding Scarborough Shoal would be well worth it. I may be the minority on this forum with that view point.

China did and does know how to be magnanimous. Just look at how China settled all her land border with other countries except India.

However, the maritime borders are far more complicated as it involves another superpower. So China has to be extra careful in calculating all the complexities.

Agree with your last paragraph in spirit. But do understand that ceding sovereignty is permanent, dropping VFA can be revived by another administration down the road. Some form of protection for China must be incorporated in the agreement.

 

[Overbom]

It would seem to me having Philippines dropping VFA in exchange for joint exploration that favors Philippines and ceding Scarborough Shoal would be well worth it.

That's Trump-style negotiations. China isn't in the habit of making Illogical trades

You are basically saying:

• China gives up land, which is permanent
• Philippines gives up a piece of paper which is temporary and can print a new one the next day

Who knows if 4-5 years later a US-puppet becomes president in Philippines and signs another similar VFA-style agreement with it?

 

[ansy1968]

I'm not sure China knows how to be magnanimous. At the end of the day, Chinese leadership needs to be very careful about how it deals with Philippines and coming to an agreement over territorial issues will be necessary to truly make Philippines one of its closest partners in the world. Being overly aggressive with its CCG is not a great way to handle the situation.

Sir, we never have problems with China before until Obama China Pivot and Nonoy Aquino SCS misadventure. It's all part of the US geopolitical game and we're suck into it.

Well, what China needs is a port on the westpac facing US side that it can install build certain dual use facilities, radar stations and allow for port visit/replenishment. Now, the presence of such a facility could only happen if China and Philippines have very close relationships in security realm. It's quite possible Philippines would not be comfortable with such a facility.

Sir nobody want an intruder to camp in your lawn especially a neighbor, Its better for China to concentrate on Taiwan cause it provide the same strategic posture as you mentioned. IF Taiwan is taken, the Philippine is less strategic cause it provide an ideal staging point for the Chinese to threaten the American position in Asia.

In which case, China would at minimum want Philippines to not allow hosting for US/Australian aircraft or military personnel that make frequent spying flights very close to Chinese air space.

Sir like @Rettam Stacf had posted those were unarmed aircraft and were based in Singapore, they may done some overflight and refueling BUT definitely not allowed to stay and base in the Philippines.

It would seem to me having Philippines dropping VFA in exchange for joint exploration that favors Philippines and ceding Scarborough Shoal would be well worth it. I may be the minority on this forum with that view point.

Sir we lost Scarborough Shoal not to the Chinese BUT from the decision of the Arbitration in Hague were it was declared as an open fishing ground to all claimants, so we lost our bargaining position. Regarding VFA , Duterte decision to rescind it was a game changer, we now hold our destiny in our hands not of America. The COC in the SCS with an Oil JV deal will be the Icing on the cake for the incoming administration, this will mark the complete Chinese domination in the SCS, rendering the American FON and those 5 eyes spying flt untenable.

 

[tphuang]

China did and does know how to be magnanimous. Just look at how China settled all her land border with other countries except India.

However, the maritime borders are far more complicated as it involves another superpower. So China has to be extra careful in calculating all the complexities.

Agree with your last paragraph in spirit. But do understand that ceding sovereignty is permanent, dropping VFA can be revived by another administration down the road. Some form of protection for China must be incorporated in the agreement.

of course, they need to be very careful about the terms that they negotiate so that they are getting what they want out of it. They gave up land claims in their negotiations with the Russians and now have a partner and people don't care about the claims they gave up anymore.

I see turning Philippines into one of China's closest friends so important that it's well worth giving up certain claims. Imo, it'd be very hard for Philippines security establishment to be on board with a Chinese alliance if China continues to blocking Filipino fishing grounds at Scarborough Shoal. Even if they don't want to give up permanent claim over it, they can at least allow the Filipinos to fish there again.

But what do I know? My point is that don't be afraid to give up certain claims if it helps you achieve greater strategic power in the region in the medium term.

 

[plawolf]

I'm not sure China knows how to be magnanimous. At the end of the day, Chinese leadership needs to be very careful about how it deals with Philippines and coming to an agreement over territorial issues will be necessary to truly make Philippines one of its closest partners in the world. Being overly aggressive with its CCG is not a great way to handle the situation.


Well, what China needs is a port on the westpac facing US side that it can install build certain dual use facilities, radar stations and allow for port visit/replenishment. Now, the presence of such a facility could only happen if China and Philippines have very close relationships in security realm. It's quite possible Philippines would not be comfortable with such a facility. In which case, China would at minimum want Philippines to not allow hosting for US/Australian aircraft or military personnel that make frequent spying flights very close to Chinese air space.

It would seem to me having Philippines dropping VFA in exchange for joint exploration that favors Philippines and ceding Scarborough Shoal would be well worth it. I may be the minority on this forum with that view point.

So how did China being magnanimous with Vietnam over SCS island play out in the end?

Just look at how the Philippines ripped up its VFA agreement with America when it suited them to see just how risky it is to make permanent territorial concessions for a piece of paper.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I believe that a Joint Exclusive Economic Zone (Joint EEZ) could be a viable alternative, if resolving territorial disputes still faces significant difficulties.

South Korea and Japan already have joint EEZ of their own somewhere in the East China Sea and west of Okinawa.

Japan also allows Taiwanese fishermen to fish around the waters off Diaoyu/Senkaku despite still holding the islands themselves in order to "silence" the Taiwanese authorities.

I don't see why this can't be done in the SCS.

So even if the Scarborough Shoal dispute between China and the Philippines cannot be resolved in the near term, at least there some sort of consensus reached that would be beneficial to both sides.

And at the very least, can serve as a start of reapproachment between both sides that could lead to a more permanent and satisfactory ending for both China and the Philippines.

 

[tphuang]

So how did China being magnanimous with Vietnam over SCS island play out in the end?

Just look at how the Philippines ripped up its VFA with agreement with America when it suited them to see just how risky it is to make permanent territorial concessions for a piece of paper.

Well, I don't see fishing grounds at Scarborough Shoal as a big loss, so....

If the concern is just economical, then that definitely should not stop an agreement.

If you can make an agreement that works, then do it. It's not like China will have a hard time enforcing agreement once it can push America out of the region.

 

[Andy1974]

I think China is the process of replacing fishing with farming and marine ranching, in the process turning fishers into environmental protectors. This tech will be shared widely with claimant states and they will adopt it en mass as the advantages become clear. This should have a profound effect on the fishers debate.

Example: What fish you want to eat? The one full of microplastics or the one that isn’t?