China's SCS Strategy Thread

[sndef888]

Whatever happens in & around the SCS, my point is that PRC claims there have as much historical basis as Norway would have on Greenland & Newfoundland since the Vikings landed & lived there or Italy on certain inlands in the Caribbean Sea & NE coast of N. America since Columbus & Cabot were Italians. That's why the court in Hague rejected China's claims & stated that they have no historical & legal basis.

I haven't seen anywhere that such claims were announced by them; however, they did announce their support of several other SE Asian claimants on the SCS shores that r a lot closer to those islands & reefs than the nearest Chinese coast, & whose EEZs include them.
By the same logic, IMO Argentina has/should have more rights to the Falklands than the UK, & India should never been given the Nicobars in the Andaman Sea.

Chinese have continuously lived on Taiping island, the largest natural island in the spratlys since before the 1870s, and China as an entity never renounced it's claims to the SCS, unlike Norway. The two are not comparable. China in fact has a stronger claim than any other entity in the region

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Japan is as Asian as the UK is European. Both were invaded from the mainland centuries ago but retained their unique identity while adopting many things from others. Japan is now part of the Western world & will remain in it for the foreseeable future.

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don't bet on it! By the same token, China should be thankful to Russia for not taking all of Manchuria & N. Korea. The bottom line is, China wants to dominate the SCS just like the US dominates the Caribbean Sea.
IMO, China could benefit more by turning inward to develop her vast interior to make it more suitable to life- she has enough manpower & trade surplus to do that.
In contrast, Australia is 80% desert, has just 24M population, & could improve her economy by allowing more immigration &/ setting up her own colonies/overseas territories. However, her location & alliances allows her to maintain the status quo as a de-facto US protectorate.

I am not so sure about that forever is an absolute notion nothing in this world is marked in stone. Sure the present power holder and Japanese elite are all in the 60's Baby boomer generation they grew up under the shadow of the west and looking up for the west. As well they still have hang up of Japanese superiority due to Japanese economic miracle in 60;s. Back then China was dirt poor. But we all know that Japan has been stagnating for decades now. Wages and living standard does not grows at all. Yet across the sea of Japan all the continental economies of China, Korea, Asean grew at astounding pace. Young people do travel and see it with their own eyes the meteoric rise of China. So I won't bet the Japan will forever tie themselves to the west. Wait until the next generation of power holder They have no choice but pivot back to China their economy and welfare depend on it. Japanese and korean from the largest foreign students in China and these people now broadcast their life in China to the Japanese public. Like this girl Mion She is studying in Chinese university married to Chinese guy. Now on this episode she tell the Chinese University cafeteria "Four years after studying abroad, I still want to eat at the cafeteria every day [China delivery]"

Intermarry between Japanese and Chinese are very common these days It was rare decades ago Like this woman who vlog about her married life in China Here she is having hard time teaching the kids trilingual

I made a video of my 7-year-old boy's usual Saturday during the day My son is currently attending an international school in Beijing. So I basically use English with my school and friends. Until the middle of kindergarten, in order to acquire the basics of Japanese I lived in Japan. It's been two years since I moved to Beijing, and my son's Japanese is definitely declining It's quite difficult to balance studying at school and learning Japanese. I'm doing my best not to waste my efforts so far. Around this time, it's time to test your parents' patience. My number one enemy is my lazyness, so I'll try my best. That's why I'm doing my best in two languages right now. Chinese will be put off by all means. But is it because of the environment? Chinese is also progressing, albeit fairly slowly. Most of the daily conversation seems to be audible. I will do my best to aim for the perfect trilingual It's Reiwa right now⁈ Please enjoy the retro state of the Beijing park so that you may be confused.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

When did China/Taiwan 1st laid claims to the SCS within the 11 dash line? even if she has a legitimate claim to the Taiping island, the area within 9 dash line is way to big to be based on that.

From before the 1870s the island was used by fishermen from Hainan. They had a semi-permanent settlement. Supplies were shipped from Hainan to island in exchange for turtle shells.

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China first asserted sovereignty in the modern sense to the South China Sea's island when it formally objected to France's efforts to incorporate Itu Aba and other islands and rocks into French Indochina during the 1884–1885 Sino-French war.
France eventually incorporated the Paracel and Spratly islands into French Indochina. In 1932, a year after the Japanese formally invaded northeast China (Manchuria), France formally claimed both the Paracel and Spratly Islands. China and Japan both protested. In 1933, France seized the Paracels and Spratlys, announced their annexation, formally included them in French Indochina, and built a couple of weather stations on them, but did not disturb the numerous Chinese fishermen it found there. In 1938 Japan took the islands from France, garrisoned them, and built a submarine base at Itu Aba (now Taiping / 太平) Island. In 1941, the Japanese Empire made the Paracel and Spratly islands part of Taiwan, then under its rule.
In 1945, in accordance with the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations and with American help, the armed forces of the Republic of China government at Nanjing accepted the surrender of the Japanese garrisons in Taiwan, including the Paracel and Spratly Islands. Nanjing then declared both archipelagoes to be part of Guangdong Province. It was administratively attached to the municipality of Takao (Kaohsiung) in the Japanese colony of Taiwan.

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[antiterror13]

Frankly China is lucky to have its current borders after the chaos of late 19th and early 20th century. I highly doubt Russia was ever in the position to ever 'take' Manchuria, regardless of who won the Civil War. The main regrettable piece is Russia blocking Northern China access to the Sea of Japan, which imo should be revisited in the long-term.

I agree with developing the interior, but interior development and settling SCS disputes are not mutually exclusive.

China actually do have access to Sea of Japan via Tumen river that border 3 countries (China, Russia and NK), but it was virtually blocked by Russia and NK when the relationship between China and Russia was very bad ... Russia built a large bridge on that river that would block large Chinese ship entering Sea of Japan. But if China wanted it, now it could be negotiated

However, now China has gained direct access to the Sea of Japan for the first time through a North Korean port

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.

 

[BoraTas]

China actually do have access to Sea of Japan via Tumen river that border 3 countries (China, Russia and NK), but it was virtually blocked by Russia and NK when the relationship between China and Russia was very bad ... Russia built a large bridge on that river that would block large Chinese ship entering Sea of Japan. But if China wanted it, now it could be negotiated

However, now China has gained direct access to the Sea of Japan for the first time through a North Korean port

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.

I think China not having access to the Sea of Japan can be considered a blessing in disguise. Just look at this map



Two things are striking
1- Manchuria is the only way you can access the Chinese heartland without going through a natural barrier. It would have to be defended from a naval invasion if it had a coast.

2- The sea of Japan is an insular place There are just 4 narrow seaways accessing it. The entrance between Korea and Japan would be the most useful one for China for the obvious reason but it is a relatively narrow seaway located between two US allies.

This means China would have to leave a significant portion of its navy and airforce there during a Taiwan contingency just in case the US opened a second front. And the fleet that left there would be useless for anything else since the chance it getting bottled down there is high. In my opinion, if China had a shore to the Sea of Japan, it would lead PLAN getting fragmented, just like the Russian navy.

I think China and Russia should think about opening a joint nuclear submarine base in Kamchatka but that's a topic for another thread.

 

[antiterror13]

I think China not having access to the Sea of Japan can be considered a blessing in disguise. Just look at this map

View attachment 87025

Two things are striking
1- Manchuria is the only way you can access the Chinese heartland without going through a natural barrier. It would have to be defended from a naval invasion if it had a coast.

2- The sea of Japan is an insular place There are just 4 narrow seaways accessing it. The entrance between Korea and Japan would be the most useful one for China for the obvious reason but it is a relatively narrow seaway located between two US allies.

This means China would have to leave a significant portion of its navy and airforce there during a Taiwan contingency just in case the US opened a second front. And the fleet that left there would be useless for anything else since the chance it getting bottled down there is high. In my opinion, if China had a shore to the Sea of Japan, it would lead PLAN getting fragmented, just like the Russian navy.

I think China and Russia should think about opening a joint nuclear submarine base in Kamchatka but that's a topic for another thread.

True, but if China had access to Sea of Japan, Japan and SK also would have to divide their resources to the region (Sea of Japan) for potential China + Russia attacking them during crisis, just put a small fleet (1x 055, 3x 052D and 5x 054A and many 056 there) plus strong shore missile defense would make Japan and SK would think 10x to get involved in Taiwan for example

Nobody would even think to have a land attack/invasion on China currently, even not in the last 50 yrs at least anyway

 

[Jingle Bells]

Japan is as Asian as the UK is European. Both were invaded from the mainland centuries ago but retained their unique identity while adopting many things from others. Japan is now part of the Western world & will remain in it for the foreseeable future.

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don't bet on it! By the same token, China should be thankful to Russia for not taking all of Manchuria & N. Korea. The bottom line is, China wants to dominate the SCS just like the US dominates the Caribbean Sea.
IMO, China could benefit more by turning inward to develop her vast interior to make it more suitable to life- she has enough manpower & trade surplus to do that.
In contrast, Australia is 80% desert, has just 24M population, & could improve her economy by allowing more immigration &/ setting up her own colonies/overseas territories. However, her location & alliances allows her to maintain the status quo as a de-facto US protectorate.

Dude, which century are you from? Have you never heard of cities named Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi'an, etc.? China's "interior" is by far more developed than ANY where in Australia that is more than 200 miles from coastlines.

Who the hell are you guys even? Why are you guys even on this forum, if you talk as if you've never been to China in the last 40 years?

Dude why don't you go on google and search for yourself, to see how many cities in the world even have a subway system bigger than that of Chengdu metro? It's better if you are informed.

 

[ansy1968]

Japan is as Asian as the UK is European. Both were invaded from the mainland centuries ago but retained their unique identity while adopting many things from others. Japan is now part of the Western world & will remain in it for the foreseeable future.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

don't bet on it! By the same token, China should be thankful to Russia for not taking all of Manchuria & N. Korea. The bottom line is, China wants to dominate the SCS just like the US dominates the Caribbean Sea.
IMO, China could benefit more by turning inward to develop her vast interior to make it more suitable to life- she has enough manpower & trade surplus to do that.
In contrast, Australia is 80% desert, has just 24M population, & could improve her economy by allowing more immigration &/ setting up her own colonies/overseas territories. However, her location & alliances allows her to maintain the status quo as a de-facto US protectorate.

@Tsavo Lion The Quad is dead, Japan for us is a good friend BUT as a security partner Don't bet on it, the scars are still fresh and the distrust are still there cause for most Filipinos they look like Chinese....lol we only look to the Americans even the Australian didn't pass the smell test due to its funny accent...lol

 

[Tsavo Lion]

Dude, which century are you from? Have you never heard of cities named Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi'an, etc.? China's "interior" is by far more developed than ANY where in Australia that is more than 200 miles from coastlines.

Who the hell are you guys even? Why are you guys even on this forum, if you talk as if you've never been to China in the last 40 years?

Dude why don't you go on google and search for yourself, to see how many cities in the world even have a subway system bigger than that of Chengdu metro? It's better if you are informed.

I've been to all 3 of those cities in 2002. There is a huge area West, SW, NW & South of them. only recently a high speed rail line opened via Laos to the Thai border; how long before another line is built to the Bay of Bengal via Myanmar?
Meanwhile,

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[Jingle Bells]

I've been to all 3 of those cities in 2002. There is a huge area West, SW, NW & South of them. only recently a high speed rail line opened via Laos to the Thai border; how long before another line is built to the Bay of Bengal via Myanmar?
Meanwhile,

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20 years, and you talk, with such confidence. Wow.

Oh, I see, your sense of time is adjusted to how things go in the West. hahaha, that's just funny. Let me ask you, did Chengdu even have one mile of urban rail transit 20 years ago? You think what you're seeing 20 years ago is even a remotely adequate representation of what it is today?

Are you kidding me? Do you even know how big Chengdu's metro system is today?