China's SCS Strategy Thread

[plawolf]

Actually looking at it afresh, its not difficult after all to track the path from here to the US declaring an Embargo

Step 1) Realisation that US will not defend any declaration of Independence or try any meaningful measures to stop a PRC military re-occupation on the Island, leads to the fall of the DPP Government

Step 2) Newly elected KMT government start making serious moves towards re-unification

Step 3) US disputes the election results and accuses China of interfering in Taiwan's democratic process

Step 4) US declares part or full embargo against China (to include Taiwan under KMT)
(actual scale of embargo may depend on how far the reunification process goes, as the US will want to keep plenty in hand for escalation purposes).

I think you are way over estimating the vision, will and balls of Washington politicians to have dreamed up such an elaborate plan; or to get onboard such a plan someone else developed and presented to them.

I think you are also vastly overestimating the need for a narrative or reason in the decision making process in western capitals.

My personal view is that the only thing that western leaders truly consider when making decisions on foreign policy in general and military intervention in particular can be safely distilled into a basic cost benefit analysis.

With the control of the western MSM, the pretext has never been the issue. If western politicians want a war, can the easily manufacture the pretext.

The benefits part are broadly along national interest lines, but only insofar as what can be easily and readily converted into political capital and and domestic votes.

The costs are in terms of soldiers lives that might be lost.

The current American strategic realignment is the military response to current political realities.

Simply put, the generals at the pentagon has concluded that the cost in American lives of fighting China in and around Taiwan is almost certainly going to vastly exceed any possible benefit said politicians can possible even hope to gain from the fight (the fact that America is almost certainly going to loose such a fight is pretty much relegated to the fringes of western discourse and would never be allowed to be spoken of openly in western halls of power). And that despite what they are saying now on soap boxes, if the balloon goes go up for real, they will almost certainly blink and back down.

Thus the military is shifting the battlefield from China’s front door to the Indian Ocean to try to rebalance their expected looses to get back to within the realm of being politically acceptable.

The grand game plan is to start a fight with China in the Indian Ocean to deprive China of its home field advantages, destroy the PLAN in the Indian Ocean. And that will then unlock all of the previous military options available to America which China’s military modernisation has nodeprived it of.

Once the PLAN is out of the equation, China’s SCS islands will no longer be the tip of the spear, but a cut off collection of outposts. That opens the door for effective blockade of Chinese sea based trade without killed off world trade as collateral damage. Beyond that military occupation of Taiwan might even become an option.

This all hinges on drawing the PLAN main strength into the Indian Ocean so it can be cut off and destroy there. This is also where Australia’s nuclear sub deal start to make sense as they can use nazi U-boat tactics against China.

I would also expect significant work being done to get India ‘on side’ as I think that is going to be the fulcrum on which this American plan will turn.

Rather than fight China directly, which will never work as China won’t take the bait. They will build up India and have them start the fight with China. With Australia helping covertly with their SSNs.

It is hoped that China would be prepared to send the PLAN main strength into the Indian Ocean to punish India, after which the US and invent a pretext to get involved and ambush the PLAN in the Indian Ocean to materially weaken the PLAN enough for all of the above to be viable.

The 20-30 year timeframe is probably to allow America to gain enough influence over India to act so drastically against its own national interest; to build up the Indian navy sufficiently to require enough of the PLAN to be committed for this all to work. In addition, in 20-30 years, the BRI will also have grown exponentially compared to now, making it more likely that China would be forced to fully respond to any Indian direct attacks against core elements of it.

 

[ansy1968]

@ansy1968 What's your take on the most recent Nobel Peace price recipient, Rappler founder and "journalist" Maria Ressa. Doesn't this award will be used by the forces against Duterte as further ammunition against the outgoing President and his legacy not to mention the award itself will lend further credence to the pressures placed by ICC which would or could be used by aspiring Presidential candidates that are all vying to replace Duterte. Also, I wonder how Marcos is going to answer the inevitable question if he's asked what he thinks of the award towards Maria Ressa because his response will give -- political observers and the political camps that support and oppose him --- political clues with respect to his insights, not to mention how he can adroitly maneuver a response that's not too hot and not too cold: the goldilock response.

@Bellum_Romanum bro Maria Ressa is a joke, a paid traitor by the US, remember she had her training during her stint in CNN. Brother if you look at her facial feature she had a pure native Filipina look the ugly side...lol yet the manner she act and spoke is like she wasn't born here a COCONUT," brown on the outside and white in the inside". She can't connect with people only the elite cause they are her employer and master. Regarding the Nobel that award hold no value as most of the people are concern about their livelihood.

Bro the major current issue is that the senate is on a fishing expedition to pin Duterte on corruption, They are abusing their power and Duterte is highlighting that by ordering his cabinet members not to attend.

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3 days ago — A Senate Blue Ribbon Committee member warned government officials intending to heed Duterte's order that they will cross paths again in ...

And Duterte fight back by exposing SEN Richard Gordon past corruption where he embezzled gov't fund when he was head of SBMA. See bro our politician are power hungry the way they used power is to intimidate people by the help of oligarch media so that they can pass law to benefit themselves. They sold their soul to the oligarchy elite and that is why they need to collaborate to dispose Duterte.

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24 Sep 2021 — PRESIDENT Rodrigo Duterte has threatened to file a complaint ... On Monday, he insisted on having the CoA look at the finances of the PRC.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I think you are way over estimating the vision, will and balls of Washington politicians to have dreamed up such an elaborate plan; or to get onboard such a plan someone else developed and presented to them.

I think you are also vastly overestimating the need for a narrative or reason in the decision making process in western capitals.

My personal view is that the only thing that western leaders truly consider when making decisions on foreign policy in general and military intervention in particular can be safely distilled into a basic cost benefit analysis.

With the control of the western MSM, the pretext has never been the issue. If western politicians want a war, can the easily manufacture the pretext.

The benefits part are broadly along national interest lines, but only insofar as what can be easily and readily converted into political capital and and domestic votes.

The costs are in terms of soldiers lives that might be lost.

The current American strategic realignment is the military response to current political realities.

Simply put, the generals at the pentagon has concluded that the cost in American lives of fighting China in and around Taiwan is almost certainly going to vastly exceed any possible benefit said politicians can possible even hope to gain from the fight (the fact that America is almost certainly going to loose such a fight is pretty much relegated to the fringes of western discourse and would never be allowed to be spoken of openly in western halls of power). And that despite what they are saying now on soap boxes, if the balloon goes go up for real, they will almost certainly blink and back down.

Thus the military is shifting the battlefield from China’s front door to the Indian Ocean to try to rebalance their expected looses to get back to within the realm of being politically acceptable.

The grand game plan is to start a fight with China in the Indian Ocean to deprive China of its home field advantages, destroy the PLAN in the Indian Ocean. And that will then unlock all of the previous military options available to America which China’s military modernisation has nodeprived it of.

Once the PLAN is out of the equation, China’s SCS islands will no longer be the tip of the spear, but a cut off collection of outposts. That opens the door for effective blockade of Chinese sea based trade without killed off world trade as collateral damage. Beyond that military occupation of Taiwan might even become an option.

This all hinges on drawing the PLAN main strength into the Indian Ocean so it can be cut off and destroy there. This is also where Australia’s nuclear sub deal start to make sense as they can use nazi U-boat tactics against China.

I would also expect significant work being done to get India ‘on side’ as I think that is going to be the fulcrum on which this American plan will turn.

Rather than fight China directly, which will never work as China won’t take the bait. They will build up India and have them start the fight with China. With Australia helping covertly with their SSNs.

It is hoped that China would be prepared to send the PLAN main strength into the Indian Ocean to punish India, after which the US and invent a pretext to get involved and ambush the PLAN in the Indian Ocean to materially weaken the PLAN enough for all of the above to be viable.

The 20-30 year timeframe is probably to allow America to gain enough influence over India to act so drastically against its own national interest; to build up the Indian navy sufficiently to require enough of the PLAN to be committed for this all to work. In addition, in 20-30 years, the BRI will also have grown exponentially compared to now, making it more likely that China would be forced to fully respond to any Indian direct attacks against core elements of it.

Alarm bells are already going off in US mainstream media (!!!) regarding the growing possibility of an Indian Holocaust and Modi becoming the Indian Hitler.

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Biden and Harris already warned Modi that this will be unacceptable (probably mostly for American public opinion, I doubt Biden really cares about Indian minorities and Harris identifies as black instead of Indian).

 

[reservior dogs]

Actually looking at it afresh, its not difficult after all to track the path from here to the US declaring an Embargo

Step 1) Realisation that US will not defend any declaration of Independence or try any meaningful measures to stop a PRC military re-occupation on the Island, leads to the fall of the DPP Government

Step 2) Newly elected KMT government start making serious moves towards re-unification

Step 3) US disputes the election results and accuses China of interfering in Taiwan's democratic process

Step 4) US declares part or full embargo against China (to include Taiwan under KMT)
(actual scale of embargo may depend on how far the reunification process goes, as the US will want to keep plenty in hand for escalation purposes).

Taiwan politics, similar to Japanese politics, is heavily influenced by the U.S. Without acquiescence of the U.S. KMT cannot run on the platform of re-unification. Yes, even the signals coming out of the U.S. government, as you pointed out, says we will not defend Taiwan if attacked by PLA. That does not equate to KMT getting elected in anyway, nor does it mean the U.S. will enact an embargo based on this result. With Covid still not under control and a wobbly economy, I just don't see the U.S. trying to take on such an adventure at this moment. The Chinese will also not be so stupid as to start an invasion of Taiwan today. In 5-10 years, their hands will be much stronger. Nor would I see the current Taiwanese government be so stupid as to act in a way that could trigger such invasion. They are dancing in a small, proscribed area that is allowed by both the U.S. and China and try to extend the status quo.

 

[reservior dogs]

I think you are way over estimating the vision, will and balls of Washington politicians to have dreamed up such an elaborate plan; or to get onboard such a plan someone else developed and presented to them.

I think you are also vastly overestimating the need for a narrative or reason in the decision making process in western capitals.

My personal view is that the only thing that western leaders truly consider when making decisions on foreign policy in general and military intervention in particular can be safely distilled into a basic cost benefit analysis.

With the control of the western MSM, the pretext has never been the issue. If western politicians want a war, can the easily manufacture the pretext.

The benefits part are broadly along national interest lines, but only insofar as what can be easily and readily converted into political capital and and domestic votes.

The costs are in terms of soldiers lives that might be lost.

The current American strategic realignment is the military response to current political realities.

Simply put, the generals at the pentagon has concluded that the cost in American lives of fighting China in and around Taiwan is almost certainly going to vastly exceed any possible benefit said politicians can possible even hope to gain from the fight (the fact that America is almost certainly going to loose such a fight is pretty much relegated to the fringes of western discourse and would never be allowed to be spoken of openly in western halls of power). And that despite what they are saying now on soap boxes, if the balloon goes go up for real, they will almost certainly blink and back down.

Thus the military is shifting the battlefield from China’s front door to the Indian Ocean to try to rebalance their expected looses to get back to within the realm of being politically acceptable.

The grand game plan is to start a fight with China in the Indian Ocean to deprive China of its home field advantages, destroy the PLAN in the Indian Ocean. And that will then unlock all of the previous military options available to America which China’s military modernisation has nodeprived it of.

Once the PLAN is out of the equation, China’s SCS islands will no longer be the tip of the spear, but a cut off collection of outposts. That opens the door for effective blockade of Chinese sea based trade without killed off world trade as collateral damage. Beyond that military occupation of Taiwan might even become an option.

This all hinges on drawing the PLAN main strength into the Indian Ocean so it can be cut off and destroy there. This is also where Australia’s nuclear sub deal start to make sense as they can use nazi U-boat tactics against China.

I would also expect significant work being done to get India ‘on side’ as I think that is going to be the fulcrum on which this American plan will turn.

Rather than fight China directly, which will never work as China won’t take the bait. They will build up India and have them start the fight with China. With Australia helping covertly with their SSNs.

It is hoped that China would be prepared to send the PLAN main strength into the Indian Ocean to punish India, after which the US and invent a pretext to get involved and ambush the PLAN in the Indian Ocean to materially weaken the PLAN enough for all of the above to be viable.

The 20-30 year timeframe is probably to allow America to gain enough influence over India to act so drastically against its own national interest; to build up the Indian navy sufficiently to require enough of the PLAN to be committed for this all to work. In addition, in 20-30 years, the BRI will also have grown exponentially compared to now, making it more likely that China would be forced to fully respond to any Indian direct attacks against core elements of it.

India will be stupid to take this on. They have a land border with China and New Deli is close to the border. If they even entertain the idea of embargo in the Indian Ocean, China can unleash hell from their land border. Indeed, if you observe the actions from Modi, you will see a lot of sounds and fury but no real action to form a military alliance beyond some simple military purchase like military transports.

If the U.S. wanted to do an embargo, we will have to send in our own navy to the Indian Ocean. I just don't see that happening at the moment.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I think you are way over estimating the vision, will and balls of Washington politicians to have dreamed up such an elaborate plan; or to get onboard such a plan someone else developed and presented to them.

I think you are also vastly overestimating the need for a narrative or reason in the decision making process in western capitals.

My personal view is that the only thing that western leaders truly consider when making decisions on foreign policy in general and military intervention in particular can be safely distilled into a basic cost benefit analysis.

With the control of the western MSM, the pretext has never been the issue. If western politicians want a war, can the easily manufacture the pretext.

The benefits part are broadly along national interest lines, but only insofar as what can be easily and readily converted into political capital and and domestic votes.

The costs are in terms of soldiers lives that might be lost.

The current American strategic realignment is the military response to current political realities.

Simply put, the generals at the pentagon has concluded that the cost in American lives of fighting China in and around Taiwan is almost certainly going to vastly exceed any possible benefit said politicians can possible even hope to gain from the fight (the fact that America is almost certainly going to loose such a fight is pretty much relegated to the fringes of western discourse and would never be allowed to be spoken of openly in western halls of power). And that despite what they are saying now on soap boxes, if the balloon goes go up for real, they will almost certainly blink and back down.

Thus the military is shifting the battlefield from China’s front door to the Indian Ocean to try to rebalance their expected looses to get back to within the realm of being politically acceptable.

The grand game plan is to start a fight with China in the Indian Ocean to deprive China of its home field advantages, destroy the PLAN in the Indian Ocean. And that will then unlock all of the previous military options available to America which China’s military modernisation has nodeprived it of.

Once the PLAN is out of the equation, China’s SCS islands will no longer be the tip of the spear, but a cut off collection of outposts. That opens the door for effective blockade of Chinese sea based trade without killed off world trade as collateral damage. Beyond that military occupation of Taiwan might even become an option.

This all hinges on drawing the PLAN main strength into the Indian Ocean so it can be cut off and destroy there. This is also where Australia’s nuclear sub deal start to make sense as they can use nazi U-boat tactics against China.

I would also expect significant work being done to get India ‘on side’ as I think that is going to be the fulcrum on which this American plan will turn.

Rather than fight China directly, which will never work as China won’t take the bait. They will build up India and have them start the fight with China. With Australia helping covertly with their SSNs.

It is hoped that China would be prepared to send the PLAN main strength into the Indian Ocean to punish India, after which the US and invent a pretext to get involved and ambush the PLAN in the Indian Ocean to materially weaken the PLAN enough for all of the above to be viable.

The 20-30 year timeframe is probably to allow America to gain enough influence over India to act so drastically against its own national interest; to build up the Indian navy sufficiently to require enough of the PLAN to be committed for this all to work. In addition, in 20-30 years, the BRI will also have grown exponentially compared to now, making it more likely that China would be forced to fully respond to any Indian direct attacks against core elements of it.

Nice plan. The only problem with it is that in 20-30 years, the PLAN will be as strong in the Indian Ocean as it is in the SCS today.

 

[SampanViking]

Taiwan politics, similar to Japanese politics, is heavily influenced by the U.S. Without acquiescence of the U.S. KMT cannot run on the platform of re-unification. Yes, even the signals coming out of the U.S. government, as you pointed out, says we will not defend Taiwan if attacked by PLA. That does not equate to KMT getting elected in anyway, nor does it mean the U.S. will enact an embargo based on this result. With Covid still not under control and a wobbly economy, I just don't see the U.S. trying to take on such an adventure at this moment. The Chinese will also not be so stupid as to start an invasion of Taiwan today. In 5-10 years, their hands will be much stronger. Nor would I see the current Taiwanese government be so stupid as to act in a way that could trigger such invasion. They are dancing in a small, proscribed area that is allowed by both the U.S. and China and try to extend the status quo.

You make good points as indeed did ansy1968 and Wolfie. I will add simply that your calculation above was certainly true when the Island was under US protection. The whole point though is that the Island is coming to realise that it is no longer under that protection.
The DPP is a party all about being close to Washington and seeking recognition as being Independent.
The moment it becomes clear that Independence is not a viable option, then the whole raison d'etre of the DPP and the relationship with Washington is void.
Unless the DPP is able to reinvent itself and achieve the greatest comeback since Lazarus, it is definitely over as a Government and most likely finished as a party.

Now of course this does not automatically mean a push for reunification and may simply set the stage for a warmer Status Quo. PRC however would be in a position to put pressure on the Island, especially economic that will most likely be regarded as pointless in resisting, because nobody else is going to lift a finger to do anything that actually helps them.

I do get ansy's point about the other Client states in the region. I think however the big factor here is that the ROC is China and the others are foreign countries and this is enough distinction to limit the fallout to just the Straits...

 

[reservior dogs]

You make good points as indeed did ansy1968 and Wolfie. I will add simply that your calculation above was certainly true when the Island was under US protection. The whole point though is that the Island is coming to realise that it is no longer under that protection.
The DPP is a party all about being close to Washington and seeking recognition as being Independent.
The moment it becomes clear that Independence is not a viable option, then the whole raison d'etre of the DPP and the relationship with Washington is void.
Unless the DPP is able to reinvent itself and achieve the greatest comeback since Lazarus, it is definitely over as a Government and most likely finished as a party.

Now of course this does not automatically mean a push for reunification and may simply set the stage for a warmer Status Quo. PRC however would be in a position to put pressure on the Island, especially economic that will most likely be regarded as pointless in resisting, because nobody else is going to lift a finger to do anything that actually helps them.

I do get ansy's point about the other Client states in the region. I think however the big factor here is that the ROC is China and the others are foreign countries and this is enough distinction to limit the fallout to just the Straits...

You and I can plainly see the shift in power and the signals that are coming out of the U.S. government. It does not mean that this is clear to the people in Taiwan. The Taiwanese politics is a bit schizophrenic. On one hand, everyone in Taiwan knows that a day will come when the PLA will go across the Taiwan Strait and there is not a thing the U.S. will do to protect them if this day comes. On the other hand, the voice for independence is getting stronger every day to the point where even KMT must silence their pro-unification voices if they wanted to get elected. This could only mean that the hands of the U.S. and the current party has successfully pushed for this narrative even if reality says something different. With the types of brain washing that had been done over the decades, I just don't see Taiwan electing a pro unification government, even assuming impossibly that the U.S. would allow such a platform be on the ballot box.
I think the current consensus is to live for today and extend the status quo. That goes for the current Taiwanese government as well as the people of Taiwan. The people of Taiwan had understood, long ago, that a day would come for re-unification. I think they fear such a day will come soon going forward, but nobody wanted to upset the applecart and everyone will carry on business as usual as long as they could.

 

[SampanViking]

You and I can plainly see the shift in power and the signals that are coming out of the U.S. government. It does not mean that this is clear to the people in Taiwan. The Taiwanese politics is a bit schizophrenic. On one hand, everyone in Taiwan knows that a day will come when the PLA will go across the Taiwan Strait and there is not a thing the U.S. will do to protect them if this day comes. On the other hand, the voice for independence is getting stronger every day to the point where even KMT must silence their pro-unification voices if they wanted to get elected. This could only mean that the hands of the U.S. and the current party has successfully pushed for this narrative even if reality says something different. With the types of brain washing that had been done over the decades, I just don't see Taiwan electing a pro unification government, even assuming impossibly that the U.S. would allow such a platform be on the ballot box.
I think the current consensus is to live for today and extend the status quo. That goes for the current Taiwanese government as well as the people of Taiwan. The people of Taiwan had understood, long ago, that a day would come for re-unification. I think they fear such a day will come soon going forward, but nobody wanted to upset the applecart and everyone will carry on business as usual as long as they could.

An Astute observation. Which of course means that Beijing must now make reality so plain as to be unmissable and unmistakable.
Hysteria is ultimately a bubble and while the West have become masters of its sustaining, eventually a pin will get through and then the flow of disillusion and uncertainty becomes a flood that even they can no longer control.

 

[supersnoop]

You and I can plainly see the shift in power and the signals that are coming out of the U.S. government. It does not mean that this is clear to the people in Taiwan. The Taiwanese politics is a bit schizophrenic. On one hand, everyone in Taiwan knows that a day will come when the PLA will go across the Taiwan Strait and there is not a thing the U.S. will do to protect them if this day comes. On the other hand, the voice for independence is getting stronger every day to the point where even KMT must silence their pro-unification voices if they wanted to get elected. This could only mean that the hands of the U.S. and the current party has successfully pushed for this narrative even if reality says something different. With the types of brain washing that had been done over the decades, I just don't see Taiwan electing a pro unification government, even assuming impossibly that the U.S. would allow such a platform be on the ballot box.
I think the current consensus is to live for today and extend the status quo. That goes for the current Taiwanese government as well as the people of Taiwan. The people of Taiwan had understood, long ago, that a day would come for re-unification. I think they fear such a day will come soon going forward, but nobody wanted to upset the applecart and everyone will carry on business as usual as long as they could.

I always felt this schizophrenia was the most dangerous disease for Taiwan.
As you said, everyone wants independence, yet no one expects to fight for it.

CSB did try to push for independence behind the scenes, but was basically told to sit down by George W Bush administration. They were busy with their Middle East agenda.

The problem with Taiwan is that they are too scared to let go of "Daddy America's" hand. If a Taiwanese government was daring enough to guarantee "No Alliance with America" as a precondition to settling the cross-strait issue, what would PRC do? Maybe the US won't let them behind the scenes? I always thought Ma Ying Jeou had a very bold idea with his Free Trade plan. I do feel very strongly that the "Sunflower movement" that torpedoed it was unleashed by the US. Any formalization of a framework between 2 sides is one step closer to resolving differences.

The US greatest nightmare: If a consensus was reached where there would still be a ROC military, but a small PLA base would be stationed on the island (like Guantanamo), anda joint "United China" operations division staffed with personnel from both sides was established. Almost everything else remains the same politically (with the exception of a PRC veto over ROC foreign affairs), everyone pats themselves on the back and says good job and goes home. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and other US MIC companies are left trying to explain to their shareholders why revenues decreased by 2 billion YoY.