China's SCS Strategy Thread

[reservior dogs]

I always felt this schizophrenia was the most dangerous disease for Taiwan.
As you said, everyone wants independence, yet no one expects to fight for it.

CSB did try to push for independence behind the scenes, but was basically told to sit down by George W Bush administration. They were busy with their Middle East agenda.

The problem with Taiwan is that they are too scared to let go of "Daddy America's" hand. If a Taiwanese government was daring enough to guarantee "No Alliance with America" as a precondition to settling the cross-strait issue, what would PRC do? Maybe the US won't let them behind the scenes? I always thought Ma Ying Jeou had a very bold idea with his Free Trade plan. I do feel very strongly that the "Sunflower movement" that torpedoed it was unleashed by the US. Any formalization of a framework between 2 sides is one step closer to resolving differences.

The US greatest nightmare: If a consensus was reached where there would still be a ROC military, but a small PLA base would be stationed on the island (like Guantanamo), anda joint "United China" operations division staffed with personnel from both sides was established. Almost everything else remains the same politically (with the exception of a PRC veto over ROC foreign affairs), everyone pats themselves on the back and says good job and goes home. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and other US MIC companies are left trying to explain to their shareholders why revenues decreased by 2 billion YoY.

You must understand that in the grand scheme of things, small entities such as Taiwan do not really have that much to say about their own destiny. While Taiwan is touted as a Democracy, first and foremost, the results of the election must serve the U.S. interests. The interests of Taiwan is subservient to the U.S. interest. U. S. interests changes with time and different presidents. What was the correct stand for the interests of the U.S. once upon a time would run afoul of U.S. interests later. At that time, Taiwan government would have to change their stands.
Notice what happened to CSB. He was convicted after he lost the election and put in jail. This involves the Swiss banks divulging his bank account to the Ma government. Do you think either the Ma government or the Swiss would do this without the U.S. blessing? He went against the U.S. interests at the time and paid a price for his actions.
So any illusion about Taiwan allowing PLA into Taiwan without the U.S. blessing is simply a dream. There may be a day when the U.S. allow this. That would be a day when the U.S. and China worked out some deal under the table. Taiwan is simply a pawn in this scheme. What Taiwan wants or what is in its own interests is irrelevant.

 

[hashtagpls]

So any illusion about Taiwan allowing PLA into Taiwan without the U.S. blessing is simply a dream. There may be a day when the U.S. allow this. That would be a day when the U.S. and China worked out some deal under the table. Taiwan is simply a pawn in this scheme. What Taiwan wants or what is in its own interests is irrelevant.

Great points save for this; Taiwan is non negotiable, China will not haggle over something that is china’s by right and by law.

Anglo america have proven they lack the stomach for a fight and that may change when they elect a Christian fundamentalist like Cotton into power but by that time, PLA force projection should also extend to the Caribbean.

 

[antiterror13]

I think you are way over estimating the vision, will and balls of Washington politicians to have dreamed up such an elaborate plan; or to get onboard such a plan someone else developed and presented to them.

I think you are also vastly overestimating the need for a narrative or reason in the decision making process in western capitals.

My personal view is that the only thing that western leaders truly consider when making decisions on foreign policy in general and military intervention in particular can be safely distilled into a basic cost benefit analysis.

With the control of the western MSM, the pretext has never been the issue. If western politicians want a war, can the easily manufacture the pretext.

The benefits part are broadly along national interest lines, but only insofar as what can be easily and readily converted into political capital and and domestic votes.

The costs are in terms of soldiers lives that might be lost.

The current American strategic realignment is the military response to current political realities.

Simply put, the generals at the pentagon has concluded that the cost in American lives of fighting China in and around Taiwan is almost certainly going to vastly exceed any possible benefit said politicians can possible even hope to gain from the fight (the fact that America is almost certainly going to loose such a fight is pretty much relegated to the fringes of western discourse and would never be allowed to be spoken of openly in western halls of power). And that despite what they are saying now on soap boxes, if the balloon goes go up for real, they will almost certainly blink and back down.

Thus the military is shifting the battlefield from China’s front door to the Indian Ocean to try to rebalance their expected looses to get back to within the realm of being politically acceptable.

The grand game plan is to start a fight with China in the Indian Ocean to deprive China of its home field advantages, destroy the PLAN in the Indian Ocean. And that will then unlock all of the previous military options available to America which China’s military modernisation has nodeprived it of.

Once the PLAN is out of the equation, China’s SCS islands will no longer be the tip of the spear, but a cut off collection of outposts. That opens the door for effective blockade of Chinese sea based trade without killed off world trade as collateral damage. Beyond that military occupation of Taiwan might even become an option.

This all hinges on drawing the PLAN main strength into the Indian Ocean so it can be cut off and destroy there. This is also where Australia’s nuclear sub deal start to make sense as they can use nazi U-boat tactics against China.

I would also expect significant work being done to get India ‘on side’ as I think that is going to be the fulcrum on which this American plan will turn.

Rather than fight China directly, which will never work as China won’t take the bait. They will build up India and have them start the fight with China. With Australia helping covertly with their SSNs.

It is hoped that China would be prepared to send the PLAN main strength into the Indian Ocean to punish India, after which the US and invent a pretext to get involved and ambush the PLAN in the Indian Ocean to materially weaken the PLAN enough for all of the above to be viable.

The 20-30 year timeframe is probably to allow America to gain enough influence over India to act so drastically against its own national interest; to build up the Indian navy sufficiently to require enough of the PLAN to be committed for this all to work. In addition, in 20-30 years, the BRI will also have grown exponentially compared to now, making it more likely that China would be forced to fully respond to any Indian direct attacks against core elements of it.

Great analysis. But I would say India wouldn't dare to do anything to China. China hold critical ace cards against India .. yes WATER!

Extremely easy for China to create a huge damage to India (doesn't mean China would do that), all Indian main rivers start in Tibet (i.e Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra) .......... I don't need to explain further, but I am sure you know what I meant

 

[reservior dogs]

Great points save for this; Taiwan is non negotiable, China will not haggle over something that is china’s by right and by law.

Anglo america have proven they lack the stomach for a fight and that may change when they elect a Christian fundamentalist like Cotton into power but by that time, PLA force projection should also extend to the Caribbean.

There is always a negotiation, even for stuff that rightfully belong to you. You hear a knock on the door and find a guy pointing a gun at you and demand to have your house. Even though the house belong to you, you still have to negotiate with him. Maybe you buy some time before you move out. Maybe you still get to live in the basement. If you are also packing heat and you manage to pull your gun and point it at him, now you have a Mexican standoff and the terms of the negotiation will be different. Now if your wife also have a gun and point it at him, you have yet another level of negotiation. Now if you can demonstrate to the intruder that your wife is a crack shot and can hit the penny off the ledge, you have yet another level of negotiation. Notice all that time, the fact that you legally own the house does not really enter into the picture. What counts is the power you have over the intruder.

 

[plawolf]

Great analysis. But I would say India wouldn't dare to do anything to China. China hold critical ace cards against India .. yes WATER!

Extremely easy for China to create a huge damage to India (doesn't mean China would do that), all Indian main rivers start in Tibet (i.e Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra) .......... I don't need to explain further, but I am sure you know what I meant

I would always say, never underestimate human hubris, envy and sheer stupidity. And the Indian elite seems much more ‘gifted’ in those fields than average.

Indian already have Schroeder’s cat syndrome when it comes to China since they simultaneously have the world’s biggest chip on their shoulder about being behind China and are adamant that Chinese are the inherently inferior race.

Just look at recent events where India went out of its way to provoke conflict with China over the most insignificant and completely voluntary things.

After a few decades of focus mass ego massaging; hard power upgrades of its military with western hardware; and maybe a little state capture by using America’s domestic political machinery and expertise to influence Indian elections; Washington’s biggest problem is going to be how they can keep the Indians from attacking China until the right time.

 

[ansy1968]

What are his chances? He has a part of the north, a part of the Visayas (Roamuldez). What about Mindanao? Metro Manila? Southern Luzon?

@chlosy sorry bro for the late reply, my PC had problem can't connect to WIFI, Now regarding BBM if his tandem for VP is Sarah Duterte then its game over as the Duterte name is very popular in Mindanao and Visayas. Marcos will carry the North and most of the Ilocanos add to that the religious sect support like the Inglesia ni Kristo.

If Sarah will not run Bong Go is an excellent replacement, he was place there by Duterte as an insurance and his endorsement carry a lot of weight.

 

[ansy1968]

buy votes bacause of family connection!

@davidau bro name recognition, the Marcos name invoked fear and admiration, the fear because of the Martial law abuses, admiration the father is a brilliant lawyer ,politician and a stateman. BBM had both the Northern Luzon his father birthplace and Eastern Visayas his mother side sew up. He is weak in Central Luzon, Southern Luzon ,NCR, Central Visayas and part of Mindanao. But his popularity is surging due to his association with Duterte, he should be grateful to him cause he use a lot of his political capital early on his term to allowed his father remains to be buried inside the Hero Cemetery, that takes a lot of guts. The Filipinos had a closure on the two family quarrel and can finally moved on as the Marcos curse had been lifted. When Duterte announce his retirement from politics he reminded the populace of what happen after the EDSA revolution, his simple question is Did your life improve? And so far the Opposition party have not bother to answer those question and instead try to destroy his reputation.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

 

[Dolcevita]

You must understand that in the grand scheme of things, small entities such as Taiwan do not really have that much to say about their own destiny. While Taiwan is touted as a Democracy, first and foremost, the results of the election must serve the U.S. interests. The interests of Taiwan is subservient to the U.S. interest. U. S. interests changes with time and different presidents. What was the correct stand for the interests of the U.S. once upon a time would run afoul of U.S. interests later. At that time, Taiwan government would have to change their stands.
Notice what happened to CSB. He was convicted after he lost the election and put in jail. This involves the Swiss banks divulging his bank account to the Ma government. Do you think either the Ma government or the Swiss would do this without the U.S. blessing? He went against the U.S. interests at the time and paid a price for his actions.
So any illusion about Taiwan allowing PLA into Taiwan without the U.S. blessing is simply a dream. There may be a day when the U.S. allow this. That would be a day when the U.S. and China worked out some deal under the table. Taiwan is simply a pawn in this scheme. What Taiwan wants or what is in its own interests is irrelevant.

Great points save for this; Taiwan is non negotiable, China will not haggle over something that is china’s by right and by law.

Anglo america have proven they lack the stomach for a fight and that may change when they elect a Christian fundamentalist like Cotton into power but by that time, PLA force projection should also extend to the Caribbean.

There is always a negotiation, even for stuff that rightfully belong to you. You hear a knock on the door and find a guy pointing a gun at you and demand to have your house. Even though the house belong to you, you still have to negotiate with him. Maybe you buy some time before you move out. Maybe you still get to live in the basement. If you are also packing heat and you manage to pull your gun and point it at him, now you have a Mexican standoff and the terms of the negotiation will be different. Now if your wife also have a gun and point it at him, you have yet another level of negotiation. Now if you can demonstrate to the intruder that your wife is a crack shot and can hit the penny off the ledge, you have yet another level of negotiation. Notice all that time, the fact that you legally own the house does not really enter into the picture. What counts is the power you have over the intruder.

As the US does not have a choice, perhaps they can negotiate a Wanzhou Meng-style " deferred prosecution(blessing) agreement" where the US can deferred their blessing for one year after reunification. This will help save the US face.

 

[subotai1]

Great points save for this; Taiwan is non negotiable, China will not haggle over something that is china’s by right and by law.

Anglo america have proven they lack the stomach for a fight and that may change when they elect a Christian fundamentalist like Cotton into power but by that time, PLA force projection should also extend to the Caribbean.

That would be a very bad and dangerous assumption. The issue/strategy here is not what each nation considers to be theirs. The strategy is to secure the borders and the area near the borders. Taiwan is less important as an entity of China than it is as a place where a foreign nation can stage forces. This is why China is doing what it is doing in the SCS. It wants to push any potential fight as far off its shows as it can.

There may, due to cost and technology, become a time where the US views any potential fight near China as too expensive. By that same philosophy as above, however, the US would much rather have a war in Korea, Japan and Taiwan than in the US itself.