China's SCS Strategy Thread

[plawolf]

Agree, no need to chase them, they will hit port in China eventually.

Disagree, I'm in the import/export business and 1 day delay to merchandise don't mean much usually. Containers regularly get held up by vagaries of customs and we build that into our schduling as a matter of course.

Merchant carriers though operate to a schedule and a 24hr delay has knock-on effects causing them to burn fuel or miss slots. Liners will have irate passengers seething at the wasted day.

Fines could work but I view delays and go-slows as being the softer process and eminently deniable, like how China customs delays the processing of imports instead of announcing that the import has been banned.

Either way, yes, after the first few get fined/delayed, the rest will toe the line

All true, but that seems like a rather high starting point and would likely cause significantly more blowback than just issuing tickets and fines.

It is certainly a viable escalation route for die hardship who refuse to yield, but I hold reservations about the need to start off with that as the opening move.

With fines, its low risk of significant blowback (hard to get the western public fired up about fines compared to supply shortages); low cost to administer (before direct and from opportunity costs compared to holding up ships); and probably have a higher success rate in getting ship captains to play ball since they would likely have to pay fines out of their own pocket whereas delays are either irrelevant to them if it’s within their margins, or will cause delays for customers and potential supply chain issues for producers with again won’t directly impact them when they can just point the finger at China.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Has anyone here knows about these two prominent Australian academics/strategists that's on this video arguing that "China is not and will not be the dominant power in Asia." They both concurrently argued that China's military is weak and it's pre-ordained or inevitable rise is not only difficult to improbable. Therefore it's far more vital for Australia not to designed it's forces for war with China but rather play a pivotal role in bunting, countering China's "coercive" tactics and shoring up it's capabilities to ably support it's allies in the region.

This talk was made back in 2015 and even though it's about 6 years old the current Australian arrogance and assumptions seem to come from these 2 arrogant S.O.B.'s

 

[Overbom]

Therefore it's far more vital for Australia not to designed it's forces for war with China but rather play a pivotal role in bunting, countering China's "coercive" tactics and shoring up it's capabilities to ably support it's allies in the region.

Sounds like they are delusional. Not worth to spend our time watching videos made by crazy people

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Sounds like they are delusional. Not worth to spend our time watching videos made by crazy people

I tend to seek out arguments made by the other side to better understand their arguments and also the positions they are coming from. But in all honesty, this video was a tough slog for me to finish and I have not even finished watching this presentation. I had to turn it off a couple of times whenever the presenters make asinine remarks and dismissive not to mention hostility against China and it's military. I specifically wanted to expletive the snot out of this Chinese Ozzy slave monkey who pretty much tries to out white the octagenarian academic.

 

[Overbom]

I tend to seek out arguments made by the other side to better understand their arguments and also the positions they are coming from. But in all honesty, this video was a tough slog for me to finish and I have not even finished watching this presentation. I had to turn it off a couple of times whenever the presenters make asinine remarks and dismissive not to mention hostility against China and it's military. I specifically wanted to expletive the snot out of this Chinese Ozzy slave monkey who pretty much tries to out white the octagenarian academic.

Let me predict what their video is about

China was ok before Xi.
Demographics will evetually collapse China
Xi's fault for the tensions
China's "coercive actions" against Australia
China breaking WTO rules
Work with allies and partners to ensure a rules-based international order.
China debt is collosal, will collapse
PLA is not experienced, cant win against the US
China cant innovate, will never catch to to the West
Etc.

 

[steel21]

Has anyone here knows about these two prominent Australian academics/strategists that's on this video arguing that "China is not and will not be the dominant power in Asia." They both concurrently argued that China's military is weak and it's pre-ordained or inevitable rise is not only difficult to improbable. Therefore it's far more vital for Australia not to designed it's forces for war with China but rather play a pivotal role in bunting, countering China's "coercive" tactics and shoring up it's capabilities to ably support it's allies in the region.

This talk was made back in 2015 and even though it's about 6 years old the current Australian arrogance and assumptions seem to come from these 2 arrogant S.O.B.'s

Looks like 2 morons whos have never worn the uniform, deployed in combat or planned any operation more extensive than their family vacation.

 

[Jono]

The west, Australia included, just seems not able to settle on which version is correct with respect to its China Threat or China Collapse narratives. If China is going to collapse, then it can't be a threat, and vice versa. The two are incompatible terms.
so a lot of perplexed western analysts simply vacillate between the two extremes.
I enjoy watching them sweat, smiles.

 

[daifo]

Honestly, in 2014-2015, as someone only casually following tabloid type news of china in western media back then, I wouldn't think China would become so powerful as it is today either

 

[B.I.B.]

I tend to seek out arguments made by the other side to better understand their arguments and also the positions they are coming from. But in all honesty, this video was a tough slog for me to finish and I have not even finished watching this presentation. I had to turn it off a couple of times whenever the presenters make asinine remarks and dismissive not to mention hostility against China and it's military. I specifically wanted to expletive the snot out of this Chinese Ozzy slave monkey who pretty much tries to out white the octagenarian academic.

While I never did, I wonder how many of us bothered to watch the you tube videos on the approching US/China trade wars that started to circulate around 2016/17

 

[FireyCross]

Even in 2015 that was a BS argument. The rapid development of China has been plainly obvious even to casual observers from the late 90s/early 00s onward. By the time of the global financial crisis it was impossible to miss.

Despite that, the conclusion of their argument, that Australia shouldn't develop a force based around a direct confrontation with China is sound. China is Australia's largest trading partner and China is heavily invested in Australian minerals and cattle. Australia partnering with the US is incredibly short sighted and harmful to her interests. She would be best served by a strict non-aligned stance, and shape her military doctrine around issues closer to home such as protecting her extended EEZ and territories in the Indian Ocean and the northern frontier, a modest but modern submarine capacity to confront any attempts at naval blockade, and a limited expeditionary capacity for the local region such as she used for INTERFET in Timor Leste.