China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Jono]

Europe, in the form of the infamous 8 nations alliance that invaded, looted and burned all the way from Tianjin to Beijing, has left an indelible impression on the Chinese psyche that she is a robber / murderer in a priest's garment.
The notable exception, if I am correct in deciphering the sentiment among the local Chinese in Tsingdao (a former German colony), is Germany which is still respected today for her relatively civilized and benevolent conduct towards the locals and high quality civil engineering works in Tsingdao, including the famous Tsingdao beer company established to many drinkers' delight.
So I just hope Germany will act wisely, and not to convey the perception of the 8 nations alliance knocking on China's doors with gun boats, yet again. Because I am sure this time no Chinese will be persuaded to swallow this bitter pill of disgrace and humiliation, not ever again... So please, just don't squander away this good will and cordial relationship. Time for Germany to stand up and say no to American hegemony because America only safeguards her own interests, while causing division and rift and misery to everybody else.
The problem is, would Europeans, Germany included, in their arrogance and hubris, care to acknowledge Chinese sensitivity and feelings in their calculations as far as SCS is concerned? I have my doubts, but I would very much like to be wrong.

 

[plawolf]

No real choice. It's important to really understand the context in Europe right now. France is very keen to ditch the US "security umbrella" in Europe and push ahead with a EU defence alliance. Germany is more cautious, and wants the US to be there in the event that the Baltics or Ukraine go completely kablooey, at least until such time as more consensus has emerged about the shape and scope of a more structure EU defence alliance (some of this is in place such as the CEDP and numerous joint development projects such as the A400M, but it's not mature and Germany doesn't feel ready to rely on it just yet).

As such Germany really needs to keep the US engaged in Europe by demonstrating some degree of willingness to toe the line on Americas wider empire building ambitions in the western pacific, even though Germany herself has zero interest in them.

In that context, giving the Germans a welcome in Shanghai could be a good way demonstrating that China understands the German predicament, and is ready to engage with them once they feel able to drop the American "umbrella". Ideally make it part of a reciprocal visit. A PLAN ship passing through the Danish straits on a visit to Rostock could be a strong symbol of Sino-European friendship while demonstrating to the US that Europe is an independent security actor in her own right and has no need of an American "umbrella" anymore.

That’s like saying, I am going to slap you in the face. I don’t want to do it, but I really do want to do it to impress your number one rival so they can help me advance my personal interests. Please be understanding and just take the slap and by the way, I want to stay for dinner after I slap you so make something nice ok? If you won’t accept that on a personal level, why should any self respecting independent nation accept that on a national level?

How would Germany react if China sailed a fleet into Crimea to recognise Russia sovereignty and then asked for a port visit in Germany on the way back to show there are no hard feelings?

Germany can be neutral and China will not only accept that but actively welcome and encourage it. But literally going to the other side of the planet to carry water for the Americans is no being neutral.

 

[weig2000]

That’s like saying, I am going to slap you in the face. I don’t want to do it, but I really do want to do it to impress your number one rival so they can help me advance my personal interests. Please be understanding and just take the slap and by the way, I want to stay for dinner after I slap you so make something nice ok? If you won’t accept that on a personal level, why should any self respecting independent nation accept that on a national level?

How would Germany react if China sailed a fleet into Crimea to recognise Russia sovereignty and then asked for a port visit in Germany on the way back to show there are no hard feelings?

Germany can be neutral and China will not only accept that but actively welcome and encourage it. But literally going to the other side of the planet to carry water for the Americans is no being neutral.

It's not a one-off example, but has become a pattern for Europe.

Early in the year when Biden became the president and the US started to work with "friends and allies" in their China-containment endeavor, the US coordinated with Europe and Five-Eyes to sanction China on Xinjiang "genocide." EU, for the first time since 1989 Tiananmen Incident, announced sanctions on a couple of Chinese officials. China retaliated with sanctions on more Europeans, including a few European Parliament representatives. EU was infuriated: how could you retaliate us when we only announced some relatively symbolic sanctions, at least compared to the US? The underlying subtext is that "we're in a dilemma and have to do something to please the Americans but we're kicking your ass ever so slightly so please take this as a favor and walk away as if nothing had happened."

Please do understand the twisted logic in this kind of chain reaction. EU insulted China based on some cooked-up accusations in order to please the US and expected China to be accomodating because the insult is not the worst. The implicit assumption is that China is a third-rate country and you'd better know your place.

To some extent, I can sympathize with European countries. They're pretty weak and powerless in front of the US. They often have to go along with the US policy, and ended up hurting themselves more (think Afghanistan, Iraq, sanctions against Russia etc.).

So true to form, European Parliament put on hold the approval process of CAI, the China-EU investment agreements that would benefit EU far more than China, to re-retaliate China on Chinese counter-sanctions.

 

[DarkStar]

Please do understand the twisted logic in this kind of chain reaction. EU insulted China based on some cooked-up accusations in order to please the US and expected China to be accomodating because the insult is not the worst. The implicit assumption is that China is a third-rate country and you'd better know your place.

I dare say nothing less than a humiliating war would change that attitude.

 

[escobar]

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[Heliox]

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Per the articles ... difficult to enforce like the ADIZ?

Ships aren't quite like airplanes, they are not gonna fall out of the sky if turned back or delayed.

Ships that don't abide by the Maritime ID Zone? Simple solution - ID them by their AIS and next time they make port in China, just simply make them anchor offshore, delay them from docking for 24hrs and make them backfile their previous missed report. Commercial operators will soon wise up and toe the line. A 24hr delays cost them time, money and a whole lot of inconvenience down their schedule while not really impacting China herself too much?

 

[Overbom]

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This is first for civilian ships.

Salami-slicing. After some years start forcing it on weak countries and voilla after 10-15 years, China will have complete control of SCS.

 

[plawolf]

Per the articles ... difficult to enforce like the ADIZ?

Ships aren't quite like airplanes, they are not gonna fall out of the sky if turned back or delayed.

Ships that don't abide by the Maritime ID Zone? Simple solution - ID them by their AIS and next time they make port in China, just simply make them anchor offshore, delay them from docking for 24hrs and make them backfile their previous missed report. Commercial operators will soon wise up and toe the line. A 24hr delays cost them time, money and a whole lot of inconvenience down their schedule while not really impacting China herself too much?

It’s actually really easy to enforce and doesn't need to be remotely as heavy handed as to delay the ships. That is also misguided since that will hurt the buyers and sellers rather than the ship operators who are the ones who need to follow this new rule.

The beauty of modern commerce is that cargo ships go everywhere eventually with very few to no ships doing only dedicated routes. And given the nature of world trade with China as the factory of the world, pretty much all civilian commercial ships will end up docking at a Chinese port sooner rather than later.

China doesn’t need to go chase after ships that don’t follow this order. They can and will just issue them with tickets and fines every time they don’t follow the rules, and call in all those fines the next time the ship docks at a Chinese port.

After the first few captains get their fines, word will spread, and when faced with a stiff fine (which ship captains are almost certainly not going to get reimbursed for) or forwarding some paperwork that will take only a few minutes to do, guess what the overwhelming majority of commercial ship captains will choose to do.

 

[Heliox]

It’s actually really easy to enforce and doesn't need to be remotely as heavy handed as to delay the ships. That is also misguided since that will hurt the buyers and sellers rather than the ship operators who are the ones who need to follow this new rule.

The beauty of modern commerce is that cargo ships go everywhere eventually with very few to no ships doing only dedicated routes. And given the nature of world trade with China as the factory of the world, pretty much all civilian commercial ships will end up docking at a Chinese port sooner rather than later.

China doesn’t need to go chase after ships that don’t follow this order. They can and will just issue them with tickets and fines every time they don’t follow the rules, and call in all those fines the next time the ship docks at a Chinese port.

After the first few captains get their fines, word will spread, and when faced with a stiff fine (which ship captains are almost certainly not going to get reimbursed for) or forwarding some paperwork that will take only a few minutes to do, guess what the overwhelming majority of commercial ship captains will choose to do.

Agree, no need to chase them, they will hit port in China eventually.

Disagree, I'm in the import/export business and 1 day delay to merchandise don't mean much usually. Containers regularly get held up by vagaries of customs and we build that into our schduling as a matter of course.

Merchant carriers though operate to a schedule and a 24hr delay has knock-on effects causing them to burn fuel or miss slots. Liners will have irate passengers seething at the wasted day.

Fines could work but I view delays and go-slows as being the softer process and eminently deniable, like how China customs delays the processing of imports instead of announcing that the import has been banned.

Either way, yes, after the first few get fined/delayed, the rest will toe the line

 

[escobar]

This is first for civilian ships.

Salami-slicing. After some years start forcing it on weak countries and voilla after 10-15 years, China will have complete control of SCS.

USN ships are the other targets...