China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Tse]

only in the PRC's leaders & mapmakers' imagination, not recognized by any1 else.

just this line alone is enough to expose your ignorance. the nine dash line was drawn before the PRC was even founded, before any of the other SCS claimants were independent, and the ROC still has those pre-revolution bases in the Spratly islands that it built with US HELP and has maintained for more than seventy years, but apparently you don't even know that.

PRC react if US or Japan built an island with an air/naval base on a shoal in the E. China Sea & set up an EEZ there overlapping with her own?

they dont need to because they already occupied them, it's called the diaoyu islands

The ROC gov. may conduct a referendum open to UN observers asking if they want to reunify.

Catalonia? the Confederate states? hypocrisy?

If/when China decides that she's at war with Japan and/or SK, that self-declared EEZ will be closed

the yinhe incident proves that the only people who threaten civilian shipping are the americans.

 

[ougoah]

I think the US could easily take SCS islands. PLA military presence on islands is just to act as some forward operation so that major forces are not taken by surprise by Americans initiating war. The islands are there to be lost but are there to warn and get everything ready for war. Without PLA presence 100km or so from the mainland, it would be much easier for the US to gather their invasion forces without resistance around where those islands are and commence their attacks on the mainland and core PLA assets.

PLA might have early warning assets to identify a gathering of US forces, these include the known satellite observation capabilities, unmanned subsurface drones, various Chinese HALE drones like WZ-7 and WZ-8, and undersea listening platforms. It just won't be a forward layer of resistance like PLA presence on islands with some air defence. But there is no way the US wouldn't go into this fight without 100% being able to quickly take out those islands or remove PLA presence on them. ARRW will become workable and will make the job of defending impossible for China... even without American HGVs they can toss dozens of cruise missiles and hundreds of SOWs at those islands if they don't want to overwhelm AD with unguided bombs dropped from F-35s or B-2s.

The purpose of those islands isn't to withstand US attack, they simply cannot no more than Taiwan could withstand a PLA attack on its own. What they give China though is a means of keeping the US at a greater distance with A2AD since the US has not committed any major force presence to within the 9 dash line, only ever sailing a smaller fleet through for FONOPS. If they intend for a war with China, they will bring the entire pacific fleet and fly all operational raptors to regional bases. Those islands give China some sort of reason for preventing US amassing great concentration of forces. If the US ever amasses forces, the situation would be considered by Chinese leaders as imminent war and China will fire on them first. This is the reason the US has never sent more than two CBGs into the entire 9 dash line region.

 

[davidau]

But the person who thinks that someone can strike Chinese territory with a nuke and not receive a nuke back is defnitely the wrong one.

Ugh, you don't even know the nuclear triad, hardened silos with decoys, all things that make it nealy impossible for someone to wipe out your nuclear capability in a first strike. Why are you so ignorant but still have such a strong opinion?

That's not even what a self-fulfilling prophecy is. Why are you always wrong? America's maniacal fear of being overtaken and defeated by China will become a self-fulfilling prophecy as it gives China more reason and drive to do so.

It's not a statemate because when China entered, there was no North Korea left. China literally beat the North Korea out of the US LOL. And that was at a time when Chinese military tech was an insect compared to America's.

LOL Nobody's erasing anything just because you don't understand what it means. That area is China's territory and EEZ but nations can transit EEZs in peacetime without issue. You don't know what black and white is but you ask other people to change maps LOL.

That's not what they said. Don't make shit up for other people.

But wanting to continue to survive is a better reason for the US not to use nukes. But either way, China's ready. China has nukes with MIRVS, decoys just like the US and even hypersonic nukes that the US does not have. Only desperate defeated people want this nuclear conflict because every other means is an obvious defeat to them. You sound more childish with every post suggesting this.

Look at a map. How many ways are there for China to reach the ME? And also, your scenerio of a Bangladesh+Myanmar blockade on China is a nonsensical fantasy.

And to everyone, yours is. Crazy people don't know they're crazy; they think all the regular people are crazy.

No, not at all. The Thucydides trap is practically gone now with MAD. The entire basis of the trap is that the stronger nation can still finish the weaker but rising one while preserving itself. With nukes all over, it's not an option. You can only compete.

China's populating those new islands; there's no debate. There used to be no people, now there are people, buildings, weapons, agriculture, etc...

What kind of broken self-cheating pride is that? They have pride serving the descendents of the people who drove their ancestors from their homes and murdered the ones who fought back? That's not pride; that's just making a living in the worst situation possible.

The fact is irrelevent. You accused others of immorality and I have shown you yours.

Not without pride they can't. You think these people are just animals that only want food and shelter?

Chinese people forgive each other especially for the good that Mao has done. But we don't forgive foreigners.

It's Chinese culural norm to be humble and kind only when the other side is as well; it does not apply here.

You're the guy trying to tell me how nice to be. I don't care if the style of your writing is as dilinquent as the content.

I'm seriously cracking up here. You're getting beaten so bad you're trying to conjure up superstitions for why you can't be beaten? LOLOL I was born in the year of the dragon and we kick everybody's ass at everything.

Not this time. But if you simply mean that you spew garbage against other people's wisdom, that's not considered winning and that's the only thing you've done. Everyone here can see with your wishful thinking, "Oh, the US can nuke you and then you don't want to be nuked again so you don't nuke back." You drag up ancient history to falsly analyze modern trends and when people point out to you that right now, in modern times, the US always backs out of fights against powerful nuclear countries, you say, "There's a first time for everything." LOL You consider that an argument? This horse clearly has an intellectual disability and unfortunately for you, horse, arguments are won by being right, not by blabbering more nonsense.

You cannot even read. I have already said that you'd have to go centuries to find this trend as the modern trend is China continuing to rise.

When the hell did China ever say that Chinese nukes only defend Mainland China? Only in your imagination. Why would you think that the US would defend Guam and Hawaii with nukes but China won't defend these places? It's just stupid.

You post Youtube videos of a cartoon frog doing military analysis to debunk the findings RAND LOL

Can't help it. It's the truth.

Maybe you should start using other opinions as a guide because your opinions sound like those from a high schooler in a small town taught to hate China without understanding anything. They are in outer space level of ridiculous.

Thanks for the lengthy reply to settle the truth. This jerk just wants some reactions, any reaction, pure and simple.

 

[solarz]

I think the US could easily take SCS islands. PLA military presence on islands is just to act as some forward operation so that major forces are not taken by surprise by Americans initiating war. The islands are there to be lost but are there to warn and get everything ready for war. Without PLA presence 100km or so from the mainland, it would be much easier for the US to gather their invasion forces without resistance around where those islands are and commence their attacks on the mainland and core PLA assets.

PLA might have early warning assets to identify a gathering of US forces, these include the known satellite observation capabilities, unmanned subsurface drones, various Chinese HALE drones like WZ-7 and WZ-8, and undersea listening platforms. It just won't be a forward layer of resistance like PLA presence on islands with some air defence. But there is no way the US wouldn't go into this fight without 100% being able to quickly take out those islands or remove PLA presence on them. ARRW will become workable and will make the job of defending impossible for China... even without American HGVs they can toss dozens of cruise missiles and hundreds of SOWs at those islands if they don't want to overwhelm AD with unguided bombs dropped from F-35s or B-2s.

The purpose of those islands isn't to withstand US attack, they simply cannot no more than Taiwan could withstand a PLA attack on its own. What they give China though is a means of keeping the US at a greater distance with A2AD since the US has not committed any major force presence to within the 9 dash line, only ever sailing a smaller fleet through for FONOPS. If they intend for a war with China, they will bring the entire pacific fleet and fly all operational raptors to regional bases. Those islands give China some sort of reason for preventing US amassing great concentration of forces. If the US ever amasses forces, the situation would be considered by Chinese leaders as imminent war and China will fire on them first. This is the reason the US has never sent more than two CBGs into the entire 9 dash line region.

If Taiwan is a mostly military calculus, then the SCS is mostly a political calculus.

First thing I would ask is, under what pretext is the US going to attack China's SCS islands?

Is it going to be some kind of Pearl Harbor attack, or has US declared war on China? If the latter, what is the reason for war?

Anyway you look at it, open war between China and the US will always turn into nuclear exchange, which is why open war between the two are the most unlikely scenario.

The best move the US can play in SCS is to use a proxy to challenge China, much as they tried to do with the Philippines a while back. Unfortunately, nobody in the area is actually strong enough to challenge China, even with US support. This leaves the US with no good options at all. These FON maneuvers are all for optics.

 

[ougoah]

If Taiwan is a mostly military calculus, then the SCS is mostly a political calculus.

First thing I would ask is, under what pretext is the US going to attack China's SCS islands?

Is it going to be some kind of Pearl Harbor attack, or has US declared war on China? If the latter, what is the reason for war?

Anyway you look at it, open war between China and the US will always turn into nuclear exchange, which is why open war between the two are the most unlikely scenario.

The best move the US can play in SCS is to use a proxy to challenge China, much as they tried to do with the Philippines a while back. Unfortunately, nobody in the area is actually strong enough to challenge China, even with US support. This leaves the US with no good options at all. These FON maneuvers are all for optics.

I'm saying in the event of a war whatever the reason or pretext. If I have to speculate on one, I'd say the pretext of "taking SCS islands away from evil chicom hands" is enough of a pretext for 80% of the American and five eyes world.

 

[DarkStar]

I find it hard to believe that one person can be so full of nonsense. China will not populate these countries and will control the SCS through military technology, not by occupying all of the countries in or bordering the waters. China will only and has only populated the islands that it has claimed and built up.

It's transference; it's the Jai Hind fantasy of invading neighbouring countries for lebensraum in line with their fascist idols in hitlerian germany.

 

[liamban]

It's transference; it's the Jai Hind fantasy of invading neighbouring countries for lebensraum in line with their fascist idols in hitlerian germany.

This happens on an individual level. It is really fascinating how it is effecting entire organisations and institutions.

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[Tsavo Lion]

I find it hard to believe that one person can be so full of nonsense. China will not populate these countries and will control the SCS through military technology, not by occupying all of the countries in or bordering the waters. China will only and has only populated the islands that it has claimed and built up.

then it will never have a legitimate claim there. those islands r not natural & the EEZ around them that overlaps other claimants' EEZs is therefore illegal.

And you're off topic again. They have no pride but the Chinese do in our nation; Chinese people live better.

the r proud of their heritage & of being both Natives & Americans. many do live better, & some don't. They r self reliant & don't care what others think of them. They also fight for their rights whenever they feel violated. Not bad for conquered people!

You just said that you agree that they have no real pride. What you described is a coping mechanism for being powerless.

they still have power, which come from within.

The Chinese have real pride.

good for them, I just wish they don't misuse it.

Of course. Those who are alive and repent can be forgiven.

so, u r asking them to submit to CCP's rule, & willing to kill ur errant "compatriots". Don't be surprised if they show u the door & kill many who won't leave.

That's stupid. 1. They can leave. But the land belongs to China. 2. They can find their own place in the world; there are no undiscovered islands to move them to.

to expedite it, China could help them leave so she doesn't have to fight them or pacify them later. there r still many uninhabited/sparsely populated islands in the Pacific islands in the pacific. Then she can have that land & treat the natives there better than the Native Americans were treated, to show how great the Chinese people can be.

No, we didn't say that. Don't make shit up again. If we wanted to destroy it, it could have been done long ago.

if they resist, & they will, the island will be destroyed.

They have no membership or ability to call on the UN.

there r other non-UN bodies' personnel that can go there & be recognized as observers. China will not accept the results but others will.

the West doesn't lack casus beli; they don't care. They attack weak nations from reasons out of thin air. The West lacks the power and the self-sacrifice to intervene.

the real reasons r good enough for them, even if they r unstated. There was plenty of self-sacrifice in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq & Afghanistan. The USN & Marines r on war footing at all times, deploying & exercising worldwide-that's also sacrifice for them.

Horses don't lose arguments? LOL What kinds of BS is that? What would happen if 2 horses debated?

the 1 with more knowledge &/ experience will win.

Every time you fail to answer and point and respond with irrelevent nonsense, you've lost an argument.

if I don't answer, it's because I don't want to waste my time on long explanations & going off topic.

..you see China's rise and cannot stop it.

I don't mind China's rise at all, as long as she doesn't impose her will on me; at the same time, I'm being objective & see issues from all sides.

No, the think tanks think the US will lose an intervention over the ROC and none of them recommend a nuclear escalation. You're alone.

nukes r the last resort, as I stated before.

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China won't need nukes; China is just fine and winning everyday conventionally. You're the one going crazy talking about the US using nukes hoping not to be nuked back when the reality is that they won't either and they'll have no choice but to sit there and watch China get its way like they do now in the SCS.

Neither US nor Japan will tolerate Chinese hegemony, real or perceived, in the SCS, just like Russia won't tolerate Japanese hegemony in the Sea of Japan/Okhotsk & or the US won't tolerate Indian hegemony in the Indian Ocean.

Ok ok, that's not too bad. But American schools do teach wrong things about China to start their kids off with a negative impression of it.

there is also systemic racism & exceptionalism; the White Americans r not being taught to appreciate other cultures; despite their contributions & achievements, Asians here always had a short end of the stick, just like the Natives, Blacks & Latinos.

With your ridiculous opinions on China, I would treat you the same way.

Back then, I wasn't expressing my opinions on China. But I've read that the Jews r the only nationality that is being treated as equal by the Chinese. Is it true?

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[manqiangrexue]

then it will never have a legitimate claim there. those islands r not natural & the EEZ around them that overlaps other claimants' EEZs is therefore illegal.

LOLOL There is nothing illegal if you have the military power to back it up. China built those islands, it will use them and as its military becomes more powerful it will be increasingly assertive in those waters. Only the US dares pose a real challenge; the rest are there to pretend to the US that they're chipping in.

the r proud of their heritage & of being both Natives & Americans. many do live better, & some don't. They r self reliant & don't care what others think of them. They also fight for their rights whenever they feel violated. Not bad for conquered people!

Yeah, not bad for conquered people LOLOL That's like saying that's pretty fast running for a guy with 1 leg. Once again, that's a coping mechanism, not real pride which comes from national power like China.

they still have power, which come from within.

What?

good for them, I just wish they don't misuse it.

We use it to become the strongest country in the world and don't care if you think it is misused.

so, u r asking them to submit to CCP's rule, & willing to kill ur errant "compatriots". Don't be surprised if they show u the door & kill many who won't leave.

Leave where? Kill whom? It's nonsense. After the island is taken, those who repent and embrace CCP rule will be forgiven. Those who commit murder on a civilian will obviously be jailed or executed and no one will have the power to show China the door. That's our door and our room.

to expedite it, China could help them leave so she doesn't have to fight them or pacify them later. there r still many uninhabited/sparsely populated islands in the Pacific islands in the pacific. Then she can have that land & treat the natives there better than the Native Americans were treated, to show how great the Chinese people can be.

Yeah that's stupid. I don't know if you're high or something. This makes no sense whatsoever.

if they resist, & they will, the island will be destroyed.

Yes, only if they force it. But we don't prefer that way. We prefer to work it out. And really, the island will not be destroyed anyway; at worst, the military will be defeated and the island taken over. The vast majority of the people will still be alive and will simply adjust to new rule, which normal civilians will.

there r other non-UN bodies' personnel that can go there & be recognized as observers. China will not accept the results but others will.

No they won't. Because if they will, it means that they need to act and they don't want to act against China. So just like the French, they will say that they understand that it is a special Chinese issue. The UN will not even accept the case. China is on the UN's permanent security council as is Russia.

the real reasons r good enough for them, even if they r unstated. There was plenty of self-sacrifice in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq & Afghanistan. The USN & Marines r on war footing at all times, deploying & exercising worldwide-that's also sacrifice for them.

Like I said, Western nations only fight small weak foes like those. They never imagined that China would stand in Korea and beat the US back to the South. In none of those instances was there ever a chance of a nuclear confrontation.

the 1 with more knowledge &/ experience will win.

LOLOL Ok ok, so in your imaginary world, all horses trump other zodiac signs in debates and skill comes in secondary after the zodiac signs have taken effect, right? LOLOL I know I'm talking to an ignorant person who's bad at analysis but are you a total nutcase? Like do you do voodoo too?

if I don't answer, it's because I don't want to waste my time on long explanations & going off topic.

That's what you've been doing the entire time. In actuality, you don't answer because even you know you are wrong.

I don't mind China's rise at all, as long as she doesn't impose her will on me; at the same time,

Doesn't matter if you mind or not; it will happen anyway. If you don't want to be a part of it, you better mind where you stay.

I'm being objective & see issues from all sides.

You're seeing it with beer goggles from all sides. You just can't seem to make sense toggling from incorrect analysis to nonsensical imaginary scenerios like North Korean nukes vs China.

nukes r the last resort, as I stated before.

Well then you need to understand what a last resort means. It means the last resort to defend against anhiliation and total defeat, not the last resort to protect a small proxy from falling.

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Neither US nor Japan will tolerate Chinese hegemony, real or perceived, in the SCS, just like Russia won't tolerate Japanese hegemony in the Sea of Japan/Okhotsk & or the US won't tolerate Indian hegemony in the Indian Ocean.

Doesn't matter what they tolerate. They once said they wouldn't tolerate a nuclear China at all. China will outgrow them and with its new powers will become the hegemon of Asia and they will not dare start a nuclear war to prevent it. They will watch, try to compete, fail, and accept it like they accept every Chinese advance.

there is also systemic racism & exceptionalism; the White Americans r not being taught to appreciate other cultures; despite their contributions & achievements, Asians here always had a short end of the stick, just like the Natives, Blacks & Latinos.

Ok that's done. Off topic but I'm fine with the content.

Back then, I wasn't expressing my opinions on China. But I've read that the Jews r the only nationality that is being treated as equal by the Chinese. Is it true?

You must have lost your mind asking such a nonsensical random racist question in the middle of a debate about the SCS. And right after you said you don't want to waste time going off topic. This horse can't run straight; does it have ADHD? Do ADHD horses still have trump card magic in your imaginary world? LOL

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Helpless flailing and theatrics as usual against China's real gains.

 

[Tsavo Lion]

just this line alone is enough to expose your ignorance. the nine dash line was drawn before the PRC was even founded, ..

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. In 1952, the 11-dash line became the nine-dash line when in a moment of Communist camaraderie with Vietnam, Mao gave up China’s claims over the Gulf of Tonkin. ..Marina Tsirbas from the Australian National University

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that the nine-dash line is a “maximalist claim to sovereignty and control over all of the features, land, water, and seabed within the area bounded by the nine-dash line. This is indeed what many states fear.”

they dont need to because they already occupied them, it's called the diaoyu islands

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, & they were not altered & enlarged in any way.

Catalonia? the Confederate states? hypocrisy?

in this context, China has a golden opportunity to show that she's isn't a colonizer & hypocrite by offering to conduct a referendum with her observers, accepting the results. Just because the majority of people in the PRC consider Taiwan as part of China, it doesn't give them the right to force it to become 1. The same with SCS islands & waters that r closer to other claimants. If 3 men want to rape 2 girls & then do it, it's still a gang rape. So, it comes down to "might makes right". Who r they kidding? The International court made its ruling, & it's not in China's favor. Now dozens of nations r going to assist each other in putting pressure on PRC there.

the yinhe incident proves that the only people who threaten civilian shipping are the americans.

that's besides the point. China wants to protect her S. coast & SLOCs in the SCS at the expense of others' EEZs with the perceived ability to threaten that waterway. She may later find that she bit more than she can chew.