China's SCS Strategy Thread

[mr.bean]

It's a pipe dream really. If Vietnam ever inflicts any damage on a major Chinese city, the PLA will be fully mobilized to completely wipe out the Vietnamese military. The Vietnamese government knows this. Any actual conflict with China will be suicide for them.

that article by Carl Thayer is so wacko it's not even worth commenting on. I couldn't even finish reading half of it before ditching it.

 

[Player 0]

Never heard of Thayer until this point, but honestly i gave up on the Diplomat literally the moment i read an article that looked like an advertisement for Lockheed Martin in glorifying how wonderful the F-22 is.

This just crossed the line from Fox news style slant of Journalism to being an outlet for trolls looking to stir shit up, its like an article written for the comment section by the comment section.

 

[Blackstone]

Obama's new Ambassador nominee to Vietnam, Ted Osius, wants arms embargo on Vietnam lifted. Is Team Obama changing the "we're not trying to contain China" mantra? That will do wonders to repair US-China strategic trust.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama's nominee to become the next U.S. ambassador to Vietnam said Tuesday it may be time for Washington to consider lifting a ban on the sale and transfer of lethal weapons to the former American enemy.

Ted Osius told his Senate confirmation hearing that the U.S. has made clear to the nation's authoritarian government that the ban can't be lifted without significant progress on human rights.

But he said there has been progress in three or four of the nine areas where the U.S. is looking for improvements, including on labor rights, treatment of people with disabilities, allowing more space for civil society and for churches to operate.

Osius said that "may mean it's time to begin exploring the possibility of lifting the ban," but at a pace with which the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and Vietnam would be comfortable.

He was responding to a question from Republican Sen. John McCain who supports such a step.

Any such move would be likely to anger China, which is locked in a territorial standoff with Vietnam and eyes increased U.S. engagement in Asia as an attempt to contain its rise. China recently deployed an oil rig in an offshore area also claimed by Vietnam in the South China Sea, a region of growing tension between China and its neighbors.

The U.S. and Vietnam re-established diplomatic relations in 1995, two decades after the end of the Vietnam War, and ties have improved markedly in recent years. In 2007, the U.S. opened the way for trade in non-lethal defense items and services on a case-by-case basis, but it is still prohibited under law from selling or transferring lethal items.

Vietnamese leaders have asked the Obama administration to remove those restrictions, viewing it as a key step to fully normalizing relations.

Rights groups remain deeply critical of Vietnam's record. It remains a one-party state that squelches dissent. Human Rights Watch says that the number of people sentenced in political trials in Vietnam has increased every year since 2010, and that at least 63 people were imprisoned for peaceful political expression last year.

Osius acknowledged the improvements to date have been modest, but he said "now is the time" for Washington to press Vietnam further to improve human rights and governance, because given Hanoi's eagerness to participate in a U.S.-backed, trans-Pacific free trade pact currently under negotiation, and because of the "strategic situation" it faces with China.

"There's really no better time than this year given the Vietnamese interest in a deepening partnership with us," he said.

Osius is a veteran diplomat who has served in Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines. His appointment as ambassador to Vietnam has to be confirmed by the Foreign Relations Committee and the full Senate.

 

[Jeff Head]

Obama's new Ambassador nominee to Vietnam, Ted Osius, wants arms embargo on Vietnam lifted.=That will do wonders to repair US-China strategic trust.

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Most of Obama's appointees to Ambassadorships have been abysmal.

The US has no need to do this in any case.

Vietnam is already getting significant, and very capable arms from Russia...and there is no way US arms of that caliber will ever be able to be sold to them for anything close to the same prices.

Foolish all around.

The current Vietnam buildup with both SSKs and new FFGs, and with Russian aircraft is sufficient to give pause to the PLAN. No need for the US to get in the middle of that in the least..

 

[weig2000]

Never heard of Thayer until this point, but honestly i gave up on the Diplomat literally the moment i read an article that looked like an advertisement for Lockheed Martin in glorifying how wonderful the F-22 is.

This just crossed the line from Fox news style slant of Journalism to being an outlet for trolls looking to stir shit up, its like an article written for the comment section by the comment section.

Apparently, Carl Thayer is considerably more "authoritative" and better-known than you realized. Read this recent New York Times report:

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In which, Thayer provides the quotes:

“It’s changing the status quo,” said Carlyle A. Thayer, an emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia. “It can only raise tensions.”

And the concluding quotes at the end of the report:

“None of this is an isolated incident,” he said. “It seems to be a new plan to assert Chinese sovereignty. This isn’t something that will go away. This is a constant thing that will raise tensions, and at the same time no one has a good response to it.”

Reading most of the reports and articles from western media on SCS, you realized that most of the quoted people are westerners or westerners based in the region, presumably providing some "regional" perspective or voice. Occasionally, they would have quotes from some anonymous "Asian diplomat" speaking out against China. Strange thing is other than Vietnamese or Philippines, you don't hear very often from other Southeast Asian countries. So I guess the regional positions are represented or spoken for by the western media or analysts.

 

[AssassinsMace]

There's a brouhaha in Hollywood over the Sultan of Brunei owning the Beverly Hills Hotel. There's a protest over how Brunei has taken steps to move towards sharia law where stoning women and gays is acceptable. Obama has called the Sultan a friend. Brunei has also qualified to be member of TPP. The idea that Vietnam has to jump through hurdles for normalized relations is a joke. They can give Vietnam a pass right now just like Brunei. Obama thinks he can continue to play chicken where he's never won once. How about some sanctions? Obama's not even talking about sanctions because that will hurt the US. So he's not looking for a war either. He's playing chicken again.

 

[Equation]

Apparently, Carl Thayer is considerably more "authoritative" and better-known than you realized. Read this recent New York Times report:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In which, Thayer provides the quotes:

“It’s changing the status quo,” said Carlyle A. Thayer, an emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales in Australia. “It can only raise tensions.”

And the concluding quotes at the end of the report:

“None of this is an isolated incident,” he said. “It seems to be a new plan to assert Chinese sovereignty. This isn’t something that will go away. This is a constant thing that will raise tensions, and at the same time no one has a good response to it.”

Reading most of the reports and articles from western media on SCS, you realized that most of the quoted people are westerners or westerners based in the region, presumably providing some "regional" perspective or voice. Occasionally, they would have quotes from some anonymous "Asian diplomat" speaking out against China. Strange thing is other than Vietnamese or Philippines, you don't hear very often from other Southeast Asian countries. So I guess the regional positions are represented or spoken for by the western media or analysts.

LOL...it only "raises tensions" to those who doesn't want to see China doing it.

 

[Blackstone]

Most of Obama's appointees to Ambassadorships have been abysmal.

The US has no need to do this in any case.

Vietnam is already getting significant, and very capable arms from Russia...and there is no way US arms of that caliber will ever be able to be sold to them for anything close to the same prices.

Foolish all around.

The current Vietnam buildup with both SSKs and new FFGs, and with Russian aircraft is sufficient to give pause to the PLAN. No need for the US to get in the middle of that in the least..

Well said, Jeff. It simply isn't clear what Team Obama's objectives are by lifting arms embargo on Vietnam. Unless we sell them game changing weapons like Tomahawks, Patriots, and F-35s, the weapons Vietnam could get aren't much better than Russian hardware they already have, and come with long lists of usage conditions. I'm all for putting pressure on China to pursue our national interests, but China has consistently accused the US of containment, and worse, encirclement, and now Team Obama gives it more cause to believe.

What is US grand strategy? If it's order and stability in Asia, then recent comments by Ambassador Osius aren't helpful.

 

[Blackstone]

LOL...it (island reclamation) only "raises tensions" to those who doesn't want to see China doing it.

Reasonable people would say China's island reclamation projects indeed raise tensions. You could legitimately argue China didn't originate the latest rounds of sovereignty squabbles, which started around 2008-2009 time frame, but it is raising tensions. It definitely is.

 

[Blackstone]

James R. Holmes, a well known Washington D.C. panda basher/dragon slayer, wrote a new article in the National Bureau of Asian Research on China's assertiveness in the South China Sea. In it, he accurately describes the immediate situations, and some options for the US. As usual, his articles on US-China relations emphasize the 'China-threat' angle, but they are generally well reasoned, well written, and easy to follow. Here's the link to his latest piece:

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POLICY OPTIONS
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Third, consider committing U.S. Navy and Coast Guard forces to Asia in more than their usual training capacity, creating combined naval and law enforcement fleets with Asian allies. U.S. mariners would help police offshore waters the way soldiers helped police NATO soil throughout the Cold War. The Philippines, for instance, will never be able to fend off Chinese encroachment on its EEZ. Its maritime resources are too sparse. But a beefed-up U.S. Coast Guard forward-deployed to Southeast Asia—and backed by heavy U.S. Navy firepower—could give regional states a fighting chance of upholding their legal rights.

You could agree or disagree with Holmes, but he appears to be well respected in D.C. policy and defense circles. My problem with his "option 3" is what do USN/USCG ships do after they get there? Have a party? Read them the Riot Act? WHAT?

Imagine USCG vessels among scores of CCG ships and 'fishing' boats, and they bump/ram each other. What then? Would USCG ships open fire on CCG ships without being fired on? Will American sailors machine gun Chinese 'fishermen' for bumping into or ramming them? What happens when Burks and Luyangs circle each other with unclear intentions? Accidents happen and things could spin out of control in a hurry.

By rushing into action without thinking things through, the dragon slayers risk a Sino-American crisis that might inadvertently lead to open hostility and even war. Scary thing is both Washington and Beijing are full of 'get-tough-with-them' war hawks.