China's SCS Strategy Thread

[escobar]

I don't see how its meaningless, forward deployed assets are going to be important in any Taiwan scenario or SCS clash. Hawaii is probably a week or more from Chinese waters, San Diego is even further.

And all are part of INDOPACOM. DoD is just saying they want more money

 

[Sardaukar20]

Well rules and standards are important. Take a look at the now CPTPP, it has a rule about State Own Enterprises (SOE) transperancy which makes it incredibly difficult for China to join.

I think the 'problem' of Chinese State Owned Enterprises is a made up fantasy by the Americans. SOEs are not exclusive to China. It is not even the exclusive problems of Communist countries.

Singapore, one of the biggest champions of the TTP has Temasek Holdings. Temasek Holdings is a holding company owned by the Singaporean Government. It has portfolios in pretty much all of Singapore's biggest industries like finance, transportation, media, real-estate, etc. We can bet that among the many Singaporean companies inside the TTP, a good number of them would have links to Temasek Holdings. But Singapore had little issue becoming a founding member the TTP.

So, either there is a double standard pertaining to the status of SOEs in the TTP, or China's SOEs are not gonna be an issue for joining the TTP.

 

[Sardaukar20]

An Incomplete Report on US Military Operations in the South China Sea in 2020 :

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"Through 2020, the US military deployed 3 CSGs, 2 ARGS, mulitiple nuclear subs, nearly 1,000 sorties of reconnaissance planes and 17 batches of strategic bombers to the SouthChinaSea, whose intensity, scale and duration were rarely seen in recent years."

So much for 'Chinese threat'. How many naval patrols and strategic sorties had China conducted off the coast of California or in the Gulf of Mexico in 2020? Zero. At every juncture America is constantly trying to create tensions around and within China. USN in the SCS, and around Taiwan. US operatives in HK. The Quad, and so-on. And China is guilty about going crazy with its military buildup and modernization?

The biggest threat I see from the US deployments in the SCS are in particular, their nuclear submarines. They won't reveal the types, but my guess is that Ohio SSBNs could be among the mix. Not only can the US bring the might of its strategic nuclear arsenal at China's doorstep. The other nuclear submarines can do a lot of intelligence gathering of China's naval assets. They could be shadowing Chinese ships and submarines to record their acoustic signatures. Powerful tools to for every US nuclear submarines. They could use it to program their torpedoes, or more importantly to upload them it into naval mines. Worse, they could share it with other anti-China countries like Japan, or maybe Vietnam. For me, this should be an urgent priority threat for the PLAN.

But unfortunately, very little is said about US submarines in the Chinese media. I hope that the PLAN is not as ignorant, and is at least trying to track US submarines in SCS. Their acoustic signatures need to be recorded. It'll be a very important, but extremely challenging task based on China's current capabilities. China's current nuclear subs are still too noisy, and its surface assets could be heard from miles away. Only China's modern conventional subs, and UUVs are the closest things that it has that could theoretically sneak up on US nuclear subs. Assuming that they can be found first. The SCS is not the Pacific ocean, so trying to look for US submarines there is not a truly insurmountable task.

 

[voyager1]

"Through 2020, the US military deployed 3 CSGs, 2 ARGS, mulitiple nuclear subs, nearly 1,000 sorties of reconnaissance planes and 17 batches of strategic bombers to the SouthChinaSea, whose intensity, scale and duration were rarely seen in recent years."

So much for 'Chinese threat'. How many naval patrols and strategic sorties had China conducted off the coast of California or in the Gulf of Mexico in 2020? Zero. At every juncture America is constantly trying to create tensions around and within China. USN in the SCS, and around Taiwan. US operatives in HK. The Quad, and so-on. And China is guilty about going crazy with its military buildup and modernization?

The biggest threat I see from the US deployments in the SCS are in particular, their nuclear submarines. They won't reveal the types, but my guess is that Ohio SSBNs could be among the mix. Not only can the US bring the might of its strategic nuclear arsenal at China's doorstep. The other nuclear submarines can do a lot of intelligence gathering of China's naval assets. They could be shadowing Chinese ships and submarines to record their acoustic signatures. Powerful tools to for every US nuclear submarines. They could use it to program their torpedoes, or more importantly to upload them it into naval mines. Worse, they could share it with other anti-China countries like Japan, or maybe Vietnam. For me, this should be an urgent priority threat for the PLAN.

But unfortunately, very little is said about US submarines in the Chinese media. I hope that the PLAN is not as ignorant, and is at least trying to track US submarines in SCS. Their acoustic signatures need to be recorded. It'll be a very important, but extremely challenging task based on China's current capabilities. China's current nuclear subs are still too noisy, and its surface assets could be heard from miles away. Only China's modern conventional subs, and UUVs are the closest things that it has that could theoretically sneak up on US nuclear subs. Assuming that they can be found first. The SCS is not the Pacific ocean, so trying to look for US submarines there is not a truly insurmountable task.

With China still keeping its military spending at a low level it seems that the Quad strategy is not working as much as they wanted.

China wont allow itself to get bankrupt from the spending on the MIC

 

[voyager1]

"Through 2020, the US military deployed 3 CSGs, 2 ARGS, mulitiple nuclear subs, nearly 1,000 sorties of reconnaissance planes and 17 batches of strategic bombers to the SouthChinaSea, whose intensity, scale and duration were rarely seen in recent years."

So much for 'Chinese threat'. How many naval patrols and strategic sorties had China conducted off the coast of California or in the Gulf of Mexico in 2020? Zero. At every juncture America is constantly trying to create tensions around and within China. USN in the SCS, and around Taiwan. US operatives in HK. The Quad, and so-on. And China is guilty about going crazy with its military buildup and modernization?

The biggest threat I see from the US deployments in the SCS are in particular, their nuclear submarines. They won't reveal the types, but my guess is that Ohio SSBNs could be among the mix. Not only can the US bring the might of its strategic nuclear arsenal at China's doorstep. The other nuclear submarines can do a lot of intelligence gathering of China's naval assets. They could be shadowing Chinese ships and submarines to record their acoustic signatures. Powerful tools to for every US nuclear submarines. They could use it to program their torpedoes, or more importantly to upload them it into naval mines. Worse, they could share it with other anti-China countries like Japan, or maybe Vietnam. For me, this should be an urgent priority threat for the PLAN.

But unfortunately, very little is said about US submarines in the Chinese media. I hope that the PLAN is not as ignorant, and is at least trying to track US submarines in SCS. Their acoustic signatures need to be recorded. It'll be a very important, but extremely challenging task based on China's current capabilities. China's current nuclear subs are still too noisy, and its surface assets could be heard from miles away. Only China's modern conventional subs, and UUVs are the closest things that it has that could theoretically sneak up on US nuclear subs. Assuming that they can be found first. The SCS is not the Pacific ocean, so trying to look for US submarines there is not a truly insurmountable task.

I personally see UUV as the future, lets see if China wants to capitalise to this new technology to close the capability gap with the US until at least their subs get better

 

[escobar]

"Through 2020, the US military deployed 3 CSGs, 2 ARGS, mulitiple nuclear subs, nearly 1,000 sorties of reconnaissance planes and 17 batches of strategic bombers to the South China Sea, whose intensity, scale and duration were rarely seen in recent years."

So much for 'Chinese threat'. How many naval patrols and strategic sorties had China conducted off the coast of California or in the Gulf of Mexico in 2020? Zero. At every juncture America is constantly trying to create tensions around and within China. USN in the SCS, and around Taiwan. US operatives in HK. The Quad, and so-on. And China is guilty about going crazy with its military buildup and modernization?

US surveillance flight are not illegal. Provocation maybe, but not illegal. Nothing prevent CN to do same and they should; but CN is just military incapable of doing that for now. I even find those US actions good. It prevent CN to slid into complacency and make PLA train hard. Train as you fight and fight as you train. CN should respond like RU or even US do in these situation: Take a good video and publish the flight path. Also CN is doing same against SK and JP. So all these fuss are pointless and just show weakness

 

[Sardaukar20]

I personally see UUV as the future, lets see if China wants to capitalise to this new technology to close the capability gap with the US until at least their subs get better

The noises coming out of China is indicating that they are taking UUV developments quite seriously. Which is good.

A US UUV was caught by China. And a Chinese UUV was caught by Indonesian fishermen. So this is a sign both sides are deploying UUVs around the SCS. This shows that under the surface, its hardly a quiet place.

Unfortunately the current Chinese nuclear submarines are still some way behind the US. I hope that the more promising type 095 class would start to appear much sooner than the projected 2025. By 2024, who knows if the US people are gonna vote in Trump again or someone worst.

 

[Sardaukar20]

With China still keeping its military spending at a low level it seems that the Quad strategy is not working as much as they wanted.

China wont allow itself to get bankrupt from the spending on the MIC

The Quad strategy's main aim is to get non-Americans to become meat shields for Americans when America wages war on China. Forcing China to spend itself to death is probably just an afterthought.

If anything, the US still vastly out-spends China on defense. And they are not spending that money too well. The DDG 1000 program, Gerald Ford class, and the LCS program are the main highlights. Its the US that is looking more the one likely to spend itself to death.

 

[Temstar]

"Through 2020, the US military deployed 3 CSGs, 2 ARGS, mulitiple nuclear subs, nearly 1,000 sorties of reconnaissance planes and 17 batches of strategic bombers to the SouthChinaSea, whose intensity, scale and duration were rarely seen in recent years."

So much for 'Chinese threat'. How many naval patrols and strategic sorties had China conducted off the coast of California or in the Gulf of Mexico in 2020? Zero. At every juncture America is constantly trying to create tensions around and within China. USN in the SCS, and around Taiwan. US operatives in HK. The Quad, and so-on. And China is guilty about going crazy with its military buildup and modernization?

The biggest threat I see from the US deployments in the SCS are in particular, their nuclear submarines. They won't reveal the types, but my guess is that Ohio SSBNs could be among the mix. Not only can the US bring the might of its strategic nuclear arsenal at China's doorstep. The other nuclear submarines can do a lot of intelligence gathering of China's naval assets. They could be shadowing Chinese ships and submarines to record their acoustic signatures. Powerful tools to for every US nuclear submarines. They could use it to program their torpedoes, or more importantly to upload them it into naval mines. Worse, they could share it with other anti-China countries like Japan, or maybe Vietnam. For me, this should be an urgent priority threat for the PLAN.

But unfortunately, very little is said about US submarines in the Chinese media. I hope that the PLAN is not as ignorant, and is at least trying to track US submarines in SCS. Their acoustic signatures need to be recorded. It'll be a very important, but extremely challenging task based on China's current capabilities. China's current nuclear subs are still too noisy, and its surface assets could be heard from miles away. Only China's modern conventional subs, and UUVs are the closest things that it has that could theoretically sneak up on US nuclear subs. Assuming that they can be found first. The SCS is not the Pacific ocean, so trying to look for US submarines there is not a truly insurmountable task.

PLAN is well aware. For example it's currently flying Y-8Q to South West corner of Taiwan inside the ADIZ almost daily to keep an watch out for subs.

 

[voyager1]

I remember i read somewhere that China was building an "underwater great wall" to have a better monitoring undersea. Does anyone have any updates regarding this project?