China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Sardaukar20]

to derail abit from the topic, India has never been serious about getting into RCEP. India is demanding all the party nations to recognise her underqualified nursing/programming degrees and fulfill a quota to import Indian human resources(yes there is a min yearly quota, Singapores signed CECA) so that she can solve the domestic unemployment problem at the detriment of other nations. Yet on the other hand, India refuse to open up her manufacturing sectors to international competitive. Japan is at a loss because India pull out of the talk, ending any hope of counterbalancing China's growing trade influence with South East Asian.

As for India's industrialisation attempt with no competition to shape up domestic players..lol good luck

India is just doing what they always do. Excessive trade protectionism. That is why so many of their companies cannot innovate and become competitive. A nice example is their auto-sector.

In the 1990s Tata commercial vehicles likes trucks and buses were quite competitive in SEA. They were competing with the likes of Hino, Nissan Diesel, Daewoo, etc. Now, the Japanese brands are still in high demand. But Tata's market share have been almost completely replaced by various Chinese brands. Tata had a great technological head-start, quite ahead of any Chinese brands at one time. But they've squandered this lead. The Chinese brands have already surpassed them in both sales and technology. This is the true result of Indian protectionism: losing competitiveness. India's poor economic standing for a country of so much potential is all self-inflicted.

So, India not joining RCEP is yet another act of protectionism. They cannot compete in the real world, so they decide to close doors again. This is a self-defeating act as history shows. In time, India will find itself isolated. Then we shall see whether India could finally wake up. Or will they continue to blame China and Pakistan?

 

[ansy1968]

What you said is quite true in many colonized countries or regions. Hong Kong, and India are the worst examples of this kind of strange love for former colonial masters.

Unfortunately it is difficult to reverse decades of brainwashing by the American and Western propaganda. It is everywhere, from education, to media, and in the government. That hate for China is not going anytime soon.s.

For the Filipinos it was a very brave step forward to elect Duterte. He has put some much needed purpose into Filipino governance. Since he came into power, the Philippines have started gaining respect in Asia. Of course there would be haters. The West hates Duterte, just because he refuses to be bullied by them. It'll take time to build healthy nationalism. Now that the Philippines have started to move forward, they can start to form their national identity and pride through achievements.

Hi Sardaukar20,

A brief history of my country and it may be lengthy so please bear with me.

The politics in my country is being run using the 3Gs, gold , guns and goons. Its a feudal system where a member of the church had an influence in the affair of the state. Grafted and corruption is rampant, disorder in the street, people are not feeling safe due to prevalent of drugs, all of these due to the incompetence of NINOY AQUINO. We had to thank him though due to him the Filipino had awaken and elect duterte.

People see in Duterte as our champion, cause he is not part of the establish elite, He is a nationalist, a realist and a socialist. He also display a character which is rare in Philippine politics, HE SPEAK THE TRUTH. He curse a lot , but if you read his entire speech, you will be enlighten and also he is not corrupt. seeking elective position cost a lot of money, that is were patronage politics comes in. Past president is always associated with corruption when he/she is in office to enrich themselves and to pay back all those vested interest group (like lucrative govt contract) which is detrimental to public interest.

There are many Filipino Nationalist, which by the way I consider myself as one. But we are not given the opportunity to be heard, the most outspoken one, are the communist who had different sinister agenda. The bias media which is controlled and finance by the US had group the two of us together as one of the same , to discredit us. Now with Duterte at the helm, great changes had happen within 4 years, he had accomplished many things that is considered insurmountable both structurally and institutional, That is why the church and the oligarch are afraid, he is dismantling their hold on power.many of us had came forward to express support and a possible renewal of Filipino national identity is to make his legacy a fixture in govt ,in politics and in our way of life.

The true aim of our agenda is to bring back govt control of PUBLIC UTILITIES (water, telco, power and rail) which is sold to the oligarch for a pittance, to open up the economy to bring in investment (destroy the oligarch control of the economy), to LEVEL THE PLAYING field so that all can benefit not a few, to curtail the power of the church (the separation of state and church).

 

[Hendrik_2000]

@ansy1968
I have question for you I know the Phillipine oligarch are mostly consist of spanish mestizo and Chinese mestizo. The same with Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia But the the major difference is the latter mestizo or called peranakan was generally define themselves as still Chinese and threw their lot with the Chinese masses thought actually they are separate breed since they use Malay as their first language they might still learning Chinese. And politically they are staunch western supporter. But when it come to social service or social cohesiveness they identify with the Chinese masses .They work for the betterment of the masses Chinese or not. Another thing is they still cling to Chinese culture,tradition and value

But I understand the Phillipine mestizo which Aquino family belong, are generally took up the tradition,believe and custom of Spanish mestizo and they identify with this former elite of Phillipine society.
I know that 7 out of 10 former Phillipine president are chinese descent

I might even answer my own question Both Malaysia, Indonesia. Singapore former colonist does not encourage assimilation with the natives They kept Chinese mestizo or not as separate group
Where is Phillipine the Spanish encourage assimilation with native and Spain. Can you threw me light on this subject thanks

 

[plawolf]

Submarines can already receive radio signals when fully submerged, but only down to 20 meters. However, being at shallow depth is dangerous, as you will be vulnerable to ASW assets, especially those equipped with MADs.

I haven't read the paper you are referring to but it's probably referring to short-range communications (we're talking meters, not even kilometers.) Radiowaves do not propagate well in salt water, because it's a conducting medium which dissipates EM energy. (Fun fact: Pure H2O is an insulator). Basically, this is a physics problem. No amount of engineering can overcome it. Humanity will need to discover new physics in order to solve this problem, and that would be a nobel prize level discovery. Until that happens, submarines will not be able to use radiowaves for long distance comms while submerged at their operational depths.

p.s. Entanglement isn't really relevant for any of this. Entanglement is for encrypting light based comms. The underwater version of that tech will be laser based, also over very short ranges, because light also propagates horribly in water (unless the platforms are tied together with long fiberoptic cables or something, but in that case you wouldn't need encryption anyway.)

I think we are talking about different areas of quantum entanglement. You are talking about existing quantum entanglement encryption technology.

I am talking about exactly the kind of revolutionary physics breakthrough you mentioned. If scientists can harness the ‘spooky’ quantum entanglement principles described in the below article, then they can theoretically create truly unbreakable, unjammable, lag free secure communications that are not affected by distance or objects/medium in between.

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But just sticking with currently known technology, there isn’t too much of an issue with PLAN subs staying relatively close to the surface to maintain some form of radio communications, via satellite link if needed, with other friendly assets.

The primary reason subs would generally want to stay deeper is the threat of being detected by enemy air assets. In the SCS, that is much less of an issue as the US would not be able to fly its MPAs in the contested zones that Chinese SSKs would likely lurk in.

I'm no expert either, but in that article, it says the USN also relies on VLF which can penetrate up to 40m of seawater (I thought it was 20m.) Other countries use the same system. As for ELF, like the article says, the US shut it down, which indicates it was never very useful.

Also, regarding SLCMs, against surface ships, I think submarines would need to track their own targets and provide a good firing solution, because they aren't communicating with other assets in the area. I'd be very surprised if they are capable of handing off SLCMs post launch to an AWACs, because there is no coordination between these two platforms. Submarines are lone wolfs by nature and design. Even when hunting in packs, they don't really coordinate with each other when submerged and hunting. It's total silence down there, hence 'the silent service.'

So assuming the above, this means that subs would need to get fairly close to their target before launching a salvo of SLCMs, which is a bigger problem than launching a salvo of torpedoes (which are much quieter.) As soon as they launch SLCMs, the opponent would know exactly where to vector their ASW assets. I think torpedoes will remain the preferred option for submarine captains for this reason. You can launch them from many kilometres away without anyone knowing where exactly they came from. Also, a torpedo hit is much more destructive.

Anyways... interesting discussion this. Sub warfare is a very technical, enigmatic and classified field (ironically similar to air warfare, which also takes place in 3 dimensions.) We can only hypothesize for the most part.

You are applying technical limitations as if they are doctrinal requirements.

It’s only the ‘silent’ service because subs need to stay quiet to stay alive. It has nothing to do with subs not communicating with friendly forces.

Using AWACS or other friendly assets to take over cueing for sun launched AShMs is just a slight modification of existing co-operative engagement technologies.

If AWACS could datalink with air or surface launched AShMs and even AAMs to provide mid-course guidance, then they can do if for sub launched AShMs exactly the same way.

Once a sub launched AShM clears the water and is flying in the air, it is no different from any other AShMs launched by other platforms.

Just because this isn’t an area western navies have bothered to look into because of their focus on SSN ops does not mean there is some mystical force stopping you from applying existing technologies to submarine launched AShMs if you want. And this is an area that the PLAN would be very interested in because of their large SSK fleet, which lack the speed and endurance of SSNs to be able to be more actively chase down prey. If you are an ambush predator, having a longer stick is very much worthwhile. Especially when you are expecting to deploy primarily in defensive scenarios where you can expect to be in effective communication range with friendly assets rather than lone wolfing it like SSNs tend to do when not on escort duties.

 

[Mohsin77]

If scientists can harness the ‘spooky’ quantum entanglement principles described in the below article, then they can theoretically create truly unbreakable, unjammable, lag free secure communications that are not affected by distance or objects/medium in between.

The part in red is incorrect. That's a common misconception, caused by pop-sci articles. If something 'wasn't affected by distance' (i.e. Space) it wouldn't be effected by Time either (that's GR's 'spacetime'.) You're describing faster than light communication, but that's not what is happening with Entanglement, which does not allow FTL data transfer. It's true that we have no understanding of what the hell is actually happening with Entanglement (which is the weirdest aspect of QM), but we can't use it for FTL data transfers, that much we know.

Also, "unbreakable" and "unjammable" is also irrelevant. As I said, its about encryption only. You can still block the signal itself. You can even decrypt it if you compromise the end node. There's always a lot of hype with any new tech.

Using AWACS or other friendly assets to take over cueing for sun launched AShMs is just a slight modification of existing co-operative engagement technologies.

Taking the impossible 'quantum' tricks out of the picture, the only way to operationalize what you're proposing will be to force submarines to run shallow, in order to communicate with surface/air assets. And by the way, you're proposing two-way communication, which means the submarine will also break radio silence. This means ASW assets will now be vectored by ELINT aircraft, thereby further reducing security. And this problem will only get worse with time, as 'loyal wingman' type loitering EW drones come online. Carrier groups will be surrounded by layers of these platforms, waiting for a hostile submarine to transmit. Any SLCM launch will also be easier to detect as time goes on.

That's why I'm suggesting to stick with torpedoes as the main strike option for submarines. That's traditionally what the sub is good at. Just stay deep, stay silent, pop a salvo of torpedoes at the carrier, and then slip out.

And this is an area that the PLAN would be very interested in because of their large SSK fleet, which lack the speed and endurance of SSNs to be able to be more actively chase down prey

Exercise reports have consistently shown that the USN currently has no counter for the stealth of modern diesel submarines, which can slip past the defensive nets of a carrier group, undetected. Diesel boats like the S-20 are perfect for lying in wait in the SCS and ambushing targets. They don't need the range of an SSN for that.

A lot of the tech the USN is working on right now is specifically for countering this threat, which will take time to operationalize. I think the PLAN should keep focusing on improving stealth, develop its own autonomous undersea assets, working on better batteries to improve endurance etc. I think that would be a better investment.

 

[ansy1968]

@ansy1968
I have question for you I know the Phillipine oligarch are mostly consist of spanish mestizo and Chinese mestizo. The same with Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia But the the major difference is the latter mestizo or called peranakan was generally define themselves as still Chinese and threw their lot with the Chinese masses thought actually they are separate breed since they use Malay as their first language they might still learning Chinese. And politically they are staunch western supporter. But when it come to social service or social cohesiveness they identify with the Chinese masses .They work for the betterment of the masses Chinese or not. Another thing is they still cling to Chinese culture,tradition and value

But I understand the Phillipine mestizo which Aquino family belong, are generally took up the tradition,believe and custom of Spanish mestizo and they identify with this former elite of Phillipine society.
I know that 7 out of 10 former Phillipine president are chinese descent

I might even answer my own question Both Malaysia, Indonesia. Singapore former colonist does not encourage assimilation with the natives They kept Chinese mestizo or not as separate group
Where is Phillipine the Spanish encourage assimilation with native and Spain. Can you threw me light on this subject thanks

Hi Hendrik_2000,

Thanks for your interest in our history and politics.

I have question for you I know the Phillipine oligarch are mostly consist of spanish mestizo and Chinese mestizo.

The Chinese mestizo, The landed class (old rich)

The Chinese landed class (old rich) mestizo are former merchant during Spanish era, they were look down upon by the Spanish colonizer and discriminate by the native filipino, so they intermarried with the locals to change their status, thru hard work and thriftiness they were able to climb the society ladder, buy huge land and become Hacienderos (huge land owners), Since the Spaniard are lazy they were out compete ,to able to maintain their status ,The Chinese landed class had been co opted by the Spanish mestizo and are partners in business like sugar milling and rice distribution and sometime they intermarried to each other to maintain their wealth. The Aquinos , Cojuangco ,the Lopez are the Chinese mestizo, Ayala, Elizalde, Aboitiz and Sorianos are Spanish mestizo, all of this oligarch are RENT SEEKERS, They will use their influence to get lucrative govt contract, use govt guarantee as a loan. Their main target are public utilities like banks, water, power, telco and lately transportation. They also influence our lawmakers, that is why foreign investor need to partner with them to be able to do business. the 60/40 rule that favor the local. That how they control most of our economy.

the Chinese entrepreneur class (new rich or TAIPAN).

Now these new breed of Chinese mestizo are more responsible, more adapt and flexible. The early TAIPAN all came from China had gone thru hardship early on from WW2 and the Chinese discrimination act during the cold war. That why their main focus of business is retail and manufacturing, cause they can not own land. These TAIPAN help industrialize the Philippine without govt support but thru hard work. These people are the SY, Tan , Gokongwei , Ang and others. some are pure Chinese, they intermarried with their kind and maintain its Chinese traits, other had intermarried with local but were able to maintain its Chinese culture.These kind of Chinese mestizo are major supporter of President Duterte cause they see the uneven playing field they had to endure. An example is the plan 3rd telco where Ang SMC will compete against the duopoly, before it begin the govt put obstacle to delay the project , Ang SMC become frustrated and force to sell the telecom frequency to its rival globe telecom and Pldt both own by the old oligarch. That's how the old oligarch (chinese and spanish mestizo) operate to demolish its competitor.

 

[CMFDan]

For everybody's information.
Latest anti-Chinese covert operation is making or repacking cosmetic products inside the box with "Manila,Province of China" on the label.
A couple Chinese nationals ordered to be deported. Plus the stores closed down.
The City's Mayor using racist tone in his speech/statement.

 

[ansy1968]

For everybody's information.
Latest anti-Chinese covert operation is making or repacking cosmetic products inside the box with "Manila,Province of China" on the label.
A couple Chinese nationals ordered to be deported. Plus the stores closed down.
The City's Mayor using racist tone in his speech/statement.

Hi CMFDan,

Right, it happen within 7 minute walk from my Condo, Its a set-up, the Chinese merchant cant read English, It was foolish of them to take a specialize packaging order, not knowing the intent, well cant blame them for being greedy. Regarding the mayor, He is a Chinese mestizo(about 25 percent), I had dealt with him, as a politician he is rather decent official, a new breed and a nationalist, he is not a racist, maybe because of the media he may have to say something to boost his image. If its a propaganda against Duterte its to shallow /obvious for the people to accept.

 

[CMFDan]

Add to this too. The timing of these incidents in the same day are obvious: 1) Manila Mayor ordered closures plus deportation and investigation. 2) Gov announcing compensation to the 14 missing and assumed dead fishermen/passengers > HK flagged cargo ship. 3) Diplomatic protest filed against China for alleged harassments. 4) Two cargo ship's collided in China (sank and flames/leakage)

 

[escobar]

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In the information age, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) believe that success in combat will be realized by winning a struggle for information superiority in the operational batttlespace. China’s informationized warfare strategy and information-centric operational concepts are central to how the PLA will generate combat power. These South China Sea (SCS) military capability (MILCAP) studies provide a survey of military technologies and systems on Chinese-claimed island-reefs in the disputed Spratly Islands. The relative compactness of China’s SCS outposts makes them an attractive case study of PLA military capabilities. Each island-reef and its associated military base facilities may be captured in a single commercial satellite image. An examination of capabilities on China’s island-reefs reveals the PLA’s informationized warfare strategy and the military’s designs on generating what the Chinese call “information power.” The SCS MILCAP series is organized around different categories of information power capabilities, from reconnaissance to communications to hardened infrastructure. Kinetic effects will remain an important component of PLA operational design. However, any challenger to Chinese military capabilities in the SCS must first account for and target the very core of the PLA’s informationized warfare strategy—its information power.

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