China's SCS Strategy Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
PLAAF conducted exercise in SCS lately, JH-7A escorted by J-11B penetrated air defense unit.

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Here is the write from Henri K I don't believe this recent activity is triggered by the passage of FREMM
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Does the passage of the FREMM made the Chinese navy react in the Paracels?
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,
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BY
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Since mid-November, the Chinese navy has organized no less than 15 naval exercises in the northern part of the South China Sea alone, more than half of which are around the Paracels Islands, an archipelago made up of 130 coral islands, reefs , reefs and shoals, located less than 300 km from the Vietnamese and Chinese coasts.

Few details have been revealed about the military maneuvers conducted by the Chinese naval forces on the zone, but we know all the same that they are for the most part with live bullets, and that the air forces of the navy as well as those of the Chinese Air Force were involved, if one believes the 19 maritime safety alerts and messages to aircrafts (NOTAM) issued by the Chinese authorities to report danger zones.

It should be noted that the 15 exercises are spread over nine different locations - three on the east coast of Hainan Island, one near the Vietnamese coast, and five around some of the Paracel Islands - and the first exercise to begin on the 15th. November, that is to say just three weeks after
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, with an almost "stop" near the Paracels.

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Security notifications and alerts indicating naval exercises in the South China Sea (Image: East Pendulum)

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Areas assigned to naval exercises since November 15 (Image: East Pendulum)

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Military Paracel Maneuvering Areas (Image: East Pendulum)

It is difficult to say for the moment whether this series of Chinese military maneuvers at the Paracels was caused by the passage of the French frigate. But if we rely solely on the institutional elements made public, it will be noted that the zones that are forbidden for access are for the most part small, not exceeding 10 nautical miles in width, and which are concentrated around four islands in particular, namely Yongxing Island (永兴 岛, Woody Island), Pattle Island (珊瑚 岛), Money Island (金银岛) and Duncan Island (琛 航 岛).

The perimeters therefore appear to be too small for any anti-ship missile fire drill, except perhaps for coastal defense artillery fire.

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Proximity zones for Paracel exercises, and known locations for the FREMM frigate end of October (Image; East Pendulum)

On the other hand, the NOTAM reporting danger for unauthorized overflight indicates that the airspace was closed below 15,000 meters, which could therefore suggest the presence of air forces on the zone at the time of the exercises.

This is also consistent with several CCTV television reports, mentioning respectively an airborne mine assault exercise conducted by the JH-7A fighter bomber aircraft and an air combat training exercise from the Southern Fleet, as well as another airborne exercise. the Chinese Air Force at the Paracels, also involving JH-7A and J-11B heavy fighters .
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
(cont)
Note that these J-11B of the 1st Brigade who came from the south of the continent posed in the night on the air base of Yongxing Island, the largest Chinese military fortification Paracels, after their simulation of air combat in the surroundings. This is the first deployment of the Chinese Air Force aircraft on the island, while it is usually marine fighters that are based there.

Apart from the tactical aircraft, the Chinese H-6K regional bombers also carried out "standardized patrols" in the South China Sea in the second half of November, but this does not seem to concern only the Paracels but extends to Spratleys, south of the South China Sea.

As for the surface fleets, we learn that a Type 071 LPD and its amphibious group had conducted a naval exercise in the area on November 15th, but we do not know if it was in the Paracels area.

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(cont)
...
now noticed in Twitter what probably is the follow-up story:
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Replying to
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C'est donc la suite de ce que j'ai mentionné ici :

Translated from French by
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Therefore, the continuation of what I've mentioned here:
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how could I ... I forgot Money (Island LOL!) after Nov 21, 2017
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I think Yagong Island is part of the Observation Bank, I marked it with a X.
saying because of what I now saw in Twitter:
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Le 1er Décembre, en mer de Chine méridionale, la marine chinoise enchaîne ses exercices navals aux Paracels pour le 4e jour consécutif.

Translated from French by
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December 1 in South China Sea, the Chinese Navy continues its naval exercises in the Paracels for the 4th consecutive day.
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Here is the write up In emergency this Y 9 with escort can resupplied those outlaying island. Apparently this Y 9 is from the western theater command Proof that various unit of PLAAF is integrated now From SCMP
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China’s home-grown Y-9 transport aircraft appears to be combat ready after completing its first long-distance exercise over the South China Sea.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force announced on its social media account on Saturday that a fleet of the aircraft from the Western Theatre Command flew thousands of kilometres to simulate an airdrop over an island in the contested waters before returning the same day.

The exercise was conducted in mock combat conditions and without weather data or guidance from a command centre, the statement said.

Military observers said the exercise was an attempt to show the PLA’s ability to fend off attacks from the sea and to mobilise different theatre commands in a crisis.

The Y-9 medium-lift transport aircraft can carry up to 25 tonnes of cargo and has a range of around 7,800km.


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Liu Bao, one of the PLA officers who took part in the drill, said the exercise was a complex task for the pilots and the equipment.

Retired PLA colonel Yue Gang said the long-distance drill showed the Y-9 could do airdrops anywhere in the South China Sea.

“It shows the Y-9 is a good tactical transport aircraft to deal with small incidents near these waters and can increase the Chinese military’s flexibility,” he said.

Collin Koh, a research fellow on maritime security from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the deployment of aircraft from the Western Theatre Command on the border with India to the Southern Theatre Command which covers the South China Sea signalled the integration of different PLA units.

Now this guys is from northern theater command
Chinese Air Force - Northern Theater Air Force F-11B training to the South China Sea
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Here is the video of air drop exercise in SCS, I guess they heed the prez exhort ion to be prepared for any eventuality
Here Henri K take on the subject

From Sichuan to Spratleys, PLAAF simulates parachute emergency supply?
BY
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Among artificially enlarged atolls by the Chinese government in the South China Sea, the Fiery Cross Reef (永 暑 礁), the Mischief Reef (美 济 礁) and the Subi Reef (渚 碧 礁), which form a triangle in the Spratley Islands, are probably the largest and also the best equipped in infrastructure of all kinds.

The realization of this pharaonic work is drawn on the one hand by the fact that China is determined to anchor permanently south of this highly disputed region by all neighboring countries, on the other hand by the reality that the Spratleys is located more than 1,000 km from the nearest Chinese coast, making logistical support operations to supply these "islands", which have no source of fresh water for example, problematic.

In times of low to medium intensity conflict, such as ensuring that thousands of people, civilians and military all together, can have enough food and equipment to remain operational is a serious subject and preoccupation for the army Chinese.

And what we can see so far, the first Chinese efforts are not all on how to arm these three islets to the maximum - that goes without saying - but how to feed these "little" distant pied-à-terre in a potentially hostile environment in a redundant way.

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The main atolls controlled by China in the South China Sea (Image: East Pendulum)

Today, each of these three Chinese fortified atolls in the Spratleys are equipped with a 3000-meter runway,
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, and ports to accommodate ships of several thousands of tons. But what if these tracks are damaged during the conflicts and sea lanes locked by opposing naval forces?

The Chinese air force seems to have given a first answer to this question, recently making a release of several of its Y-9 medium transport aircraft to conduct a parachute simulation to the Spratleys.

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on this operation remained deliberately vague. It is unclear both when exactly the operation was conducted, and what was the precise destination of this simulation. Everything is in the unspoken and the interpretation for those who want to dig well.

If we take the institutional text at its word, we learn that a squadron of several Y-9 took off, at dawn, from an air base located west of Sichuan. The aircraft arrived in the afternoon over a certain islet in the South China Sea, before conducting a parachute simulation and turning back to the mainland, and landing again in the evening.

At first glance, we have little to reconstruct the story. But the article is full of clues to reveal some interesting details.

First, the place of departure. Where do these Y-9 transport planes come from? The text speaks of a base located west of Sichuan Province and the only one that meets these criteria is that of Qionglai (邛 崃), the 4th Transport Division of the Chinese Air Force.

It was in this same division that
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Qionglai Air Base, located west of China's Sichuan Province

Once the identified starting point comes then the question about the destination. And the pictures released in parallel by the Chinese army suggested us a place and only one. Indeed, we can see on one of the images the Fiery Cross reef on the left flank of a Y-9. It is one of the last southernmost islets of the Spratleys controlled by China. So there is almost no doubt that the place for this parachute mission is the Fiery Cross Reef.

On paper, the Y-9s flew at least 2,517 kilometers from Qionglai to the Fiery Cross Reef, if we trace foolishly and simply a straight line to connect these two places, but the actual distance of the course should be greater.

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The silhouette of Fiery Cross Reef can be seen in this photo released by the Chinese Air Force (Photo: 空军 发布)

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The Fiery Cross Reef

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From Qionglai Air Base to Fiery Cross Reef (Image: East Pendulum)
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
(cont)
The Y-9 is a medium transport aircraft developed by Shaanxi Aircraft Corporation (SAC) of the AVIC Group in the early 2000s, based on the Y-8 Category III platform. The program achieved the inaugural flight in November 2010 and became operational two years later.

This quad turboprop is capable of carrying 15 tonnes in its cargo hold over a radius of 2,200 km, or a maximum of 20 tonnes of cargo or 106 military paratroopers. The cruising speed for this aircraft of a 65-ton MTOW is 550 km / h, with a cruise ceiling at 8,000 meters altitude.

With this data, we know that it would take at least 4.5 hours of flight for the Y-9 to reach their destination Spratleys, and the same time to return to the base in Sichuan. A search on the terminator line, which makes it possible to determine the sunset of a place on earth, makes it possible to say that the night falls towards 18:30 lately in Qionglai.

Assuming now that the Y-9 single-journey flight lasts for 5.5 hours, the margin of error included, it allows us to say that the Chinese carriers probably reached the Spratleys on the day of their mission around 13:00 local at the earliest, for a departure at 7:30 in the morning.

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Finally, it should be noted that the Chinese air force simulated a parachute in a context of "complete blackout" on the ground. Indeed, the press release mentioned the fact that the crew had to simulate the parachute without visible indication on the ground, without meteorological data and without ground guidance instruction (机组 在 无 人工 标志, 无 气象 资料, 无 指挥 引导 的 条件下 实施 模拟 空投).

This information is interesting in the sense that the Chinese Air Force seems to have simulated an emergency parachute operation, in a scenario where one of the Chinese islets at Spratleys have been attacked and all aeronautical support infrastructure on the ground were destroyed, but that the local garrison still preserves, at least partially, the control of the places.

Given the place of departure of the Y-9, which are very far off the coast while the Chinese army has several air bases on the island of Hainan, south of China and is much closer to the Spratleys, it is not excluded that the Chinese army at the same time simulates the inability for it to use its southernmost support bases on the continent. This would be one of the worst scenarios that the Chinese army has considered here.


Henri K.
 
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