China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Blackstone]

... I'm talking about in the frame work of SCS issue and Chinese interest, his strike to Syria is mostly motivated by domestic pressure yes, but at the same time, Xi is here so it also helps him in his negotiation with Xi. So why can it serve more than 1 purpose? That is what I meant.

I doubt Trump's Syrian strikes will shift Xi's outlook on trade and security positions one way or the other, because the Chinese came prepared with a solid playbook and unless Trump goes way off the reservation, it's unlikely he'd get anything from the Chinese they weren't already prepared to offer. There's one bit of anecdotal evidence in this White House video (20 seconds mark) where Trump commented about the meeting with Xi:

 

[PiSigma]

It's particularly true considering the $5 trillion commerce that transits through SCS annually, the majority of which originated from or destined for China...

What's our trade going those their ports! We must defend those ports and waters from those users.

 

[Equation]

I doubt Trump's Syrian strikes will shift Xi's outlook on trade and security positions one way or the other, because the Chinese came prepared with a solid playbook and unless Trump goes way off the reservation, it's unlikely he'd get anything from the Chinese they weren't already prepared to offer. There's one bit of anecdotal evidence in this White House video (20 seconds mark) where Trump commented about the meeting with Xi:

Never the less Melania Trump looked stunning in that red dress!

 

[Blackstone]

Melania Trump is stunning for certain, and so is Peng Liyuan.

 

[advill]

Let's not jump the gun & wait for the outcome of Trump & Xi discussions/agreements. My gut feeling is that there will be "trade-offs" by both sides, & hopefully satisfying for US & China. Presently, Trump appears to be listening to a better set of advisers, although he appeared unpredictable in recent times. Being in business Trump would know negotiation techniques and on how far he could go. Interesting for us observers.... Anyway, let's await the outcomes - Peace must be given a chance to succeed.

 

[mr.bean]

Never the less Melania Trump looked stunning in that red dress!

yup Melania Trump is a babe and so is Ivanka!

 

[mr.bean]

Let's stay on topic, I'm talking about in the frame work of SCS issue and Chinese interest, his strike to Syria is mostly motivated by domestic pressure yes, but at the same time, Xi is here so it also helps him in his negotiation with Xi. So why can it serve more than 1 purpose? That is what I meant.

i don't see how shooting 50 cruise missiles into Syria helps him in any way in his negotiations with China. heck he can shoot 500 cruise missiles and it won't make any difference at all. is Xi Dada supposed to be intimidated?

 

[Blackstone]

Let's not jump the gun & wait for the outcome of Trump & Xi discussions/agreements. My gut feeling is that there will be "trade-offs" by both sides, & hopefully satisfying for US & China. Presently, Trump appears to be listening to a better set of advisers, although he appeared unpredictable in recent times. Being in business Trump would know negotiation techniques and on how far he could go. Interesting for us observers.... Anyway, let's await the outcomes - Peace must be given a chance to succeed.

Other than trade, where Trump may very well get some reciprocation for American businesses (and it's about time!), I don't see Xi giving anything substantive on Taiwan, DPRK, and SCS.

On North Korea, China will not destabilize that government sufficiently to risk collapse. Anything Beijing actually do would likely be more form than substance.

US might sell Taiwan some weapons, but nothing that would make any difference in the grand scheme of things. Taiwan's road to economic and military security lies squarely through Zhongnanhai. If the crazy Greens declares independence, then Beijing would bring it back into the fold by any means necessary. Taiwan is part of China. Full stop.

As for the South China Sea, it's all over but the shouting. Reckless neocons like Senator McCain and Admiral Harris might convince President Trump to do more FONOPs, but they wouldn't change the fact China is relentlessly and methodically consolidating its strategic hold on the greater SCS area, and US would have to start WW3 to try and force it out.

Other than that, Trump and Xi should get along famously.

 

[Blackstone]

i don't see how shooting 50 cruise missiles into Syria helps him in any way in his negotiations with China. heck he can shoot 500 cruise missiles and it won't make any difference at all. is Xi Dada supposed to be intimidated?

Agreed. Xi came with a well-prepared playbook, and chances are good while he'd like to give Trump less than what's in the book, he wouldn't give more.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

i don't see how shooting 50 cruise missiles into Syria helps him in any way in his negotiations with China. heck he can shoot 500 cruise missiles and it won't make any difference at all. is Xi Dada supposed to be intimidated?

It should be 59 missile But according to the Russian only 23 hit the target and the rest missed or get lost. If that supposed to scare Xi the effect would be the opposite

I don't know who is telling the truth The American claim every one of their missile hi t the target. But the runway is escaped unscathed and they are using it again

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Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian defence ministry, said Russia would help Syria strengthen its air defences, though he did not mention whether Russian air defences currently in place in Syria were told to stand down. He said a “range of measures” would be put in place to help “protect the most sensitive Syrian infrastructure facilities”.

Konashenkov claimed that only 23 of the 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles reached the base, with the rest missing the target. He said six Syrian fighter jets at the base had been destroyed, but many remained unscathed and the runway was undamaged.

“This step will have far-reaching consequences,” said the Russian MP Mikhail Yemelyanov on Friday morning. “There’s a risk of a direct confrontation between Russia and the US and the consequences could be very difficult, right up to an armed clash and exchanging strikes – nothing can be excluded here.”