China's SCS Strategy Thread

Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
delft said:
That is the responsibility of all navies not that of a single hegemon. And huge flattops have no significant role in that work.
The new Chinese islands will contribute more to fighting piracy in SCS than US FON actions.
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Since WW2, it's been the US and allied countries that have provided most of the security around the world's waterways, and China is a welcomed late comer. The UN has welcomed Beijing's involvement in piracy control and UN peacekeeping and want more of that. On the other side of the coin, China is only in the infancy of providing global maritime common goods, and at this point in time, it simply doesn't have the ability to provide much more.

There was never a single world-wide hegemon, because US is really a regional (Western Hemisphere) hegemon with a global alliance network. That system is coming to an end, and it's not clear who would step up. The situation resembles the period between WWI end to WWII start, when Great Britain ceded global leadership to the US, but it wasn't willing or capable to don the mantle and smoothly transition in its new role. China is trying to step up economicaly, as proven by Xi Jinping's speech at the World Economic Forum, but it's not clear if it's up to the task. Time will tell.
 
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delft

Brigadier
Blackstone said:
Since WW2, it's been the US and allied countries that have provided most of the security around the world's waterways, and China is a welcomed late comer. The UN has welcomed Beijing's involvement in piracy control and UN peacekeeping and want more of that. On the other side of the coin, China is only in the infancy of providing global maritime common goods, and at this point in time, it simply doesn't have the ability to provide much more.

There was never a single world-wide hegemon, because US is really a regional (Western Hemisphere) hegemon with a global alliance network. That system is coming to an end, and it's not clear who would step up. The situation resembles the period between WWI end to WWII start, when Great Britain ceded global leadership to the US, but it wasn't willing or capable to don the mantle and smoothly transition in its new role. China is trying to step up economicaly, as proven by Xi Jinping's speech at the World Economic Forum, but it's not clear if it's up to the task. Time will tell.
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That meant all too often insecurity for countries on the coast and often also further inland. Think of the US war against Vietnam, the two invasions of Lebanon, the even more invasions of Haiti and many others. And all those wars meant that that USN was much stronger than necessary to protect Freedom of Navigation except during WWII.
We are seeing a significant growth of PLAN as well as many other navies so as far as FON is concerned USN can shrink a lot.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
delft said:
That meant all too often insecurity for countries on the coast and often also further inland. Think of the US war against Vietnam, the two invasions of Lebanon, the even more invasions of Haiti and many others. And all those wars meant that that USN was much stronger than necessary to protect Freedom of Navigation except during WWII.
We are seeing a significant growth of PLAN as well as many other navies so as far as FON is concerned USN can shrink a lot.
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You fingered the two aspects of US FONOPs in East and SE Asia, honorable freedom of navigation operations, and supporting US security primacy in Asia. As stated in earlier threads, FON is integral part of the American psychic and at the foundation of the country's DNA. But, I don't think occasional FONOPs would bother Beijing that much, and something could be worked out between the two. Primacy, on the other hand, is something China no longer accepts, and with 35 years of unprecedented growth, China will no longer accept US primacy as basis of the Asian security order. US is still much more stronger than China, but its FON will shrink because there will be a point when the benefits can't justify the costs. What does that mean for South China Sea? It means China won the SCS without firing a shot- against the US anyway.
 
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FactsPlease

Junior Member
Registered Member
Blackstone said:
You fingered the two aspects of US FONOPs in East and SE Asia, honorable freedom of navigation operations, and supporting US security primacy in Asia. As stated in earlier threads, FON is integral part of the American psychic and at the foundation of the country's DNA. But, I don't think occasional FONOPs would bother Beijing that much, and something could be worked out between the two. Primacy, on the other hand, is something China no longer accepts, and with 35 years of unprecedented growth, China will no longer accept US primacy as basis of the Asian security order. US is still much more stronger than China, but its FON will shrink because there will be a point when the benefits can't justify the costs. What does that mean for South China Sea? It means China won the SCS without firing a shot- against the US anyway.
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Post of the week and word of the week!!

My own 2 cents: I don't buy that China is jumping in any military conflict, not even with par- or minor lead in military technology (which is still a long, long way to go). Simple: winner wins and then fight, looser fights to win. And Blackstone is right, at least in this SCS stage, China is winning.
 
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sanblvd

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here are some good Sun Tzu quotes which can be apply here

Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.


Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
now noticed (dated Thu Apr 6, 2017 | 3:10pm EDT)
China fighter plane spotted on South China Sea island: think tank
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A Chinese fighter plane has been spotted on a Chinese-held island in the South China Sea, the first such deployment seen this year, a U.S. think tank reported on Thursday.

The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), part of Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the J-11 fighter was visible in a satellite image taken on March 29 of Woody Island in the Paracel island chain.

News of the deployment came as U.S. President Donald Trump was due to hold his first meetings with China's President Xi Jinping in Florida on Thursday and Friday at which he is expected to air U.S. concerns about China's pursuit of territory and militarization of outposts in the South China Sea.

"This isn’t a first, but it’s the first time in a year," AMTI director Greg Poling said of the fighter deployment.

Referring to the single fighter plane visible in the image, he said: "There are likely more in the hangars nearby."

Poling said it was unclear how long the plane had been there, but added that similar deployments on artificial islands China has built further south in the South China Sea's Spratly archipelago now that military facilities had been completed there.

The United States has said in the past that deployments of Chinese fighter jets to Woody Island were part of a disturbing trend of militarization that raised questions about Beijing's intentions in the South China Sea, which is an important trade route.

The Chinese embassy in Washington was not immediately available for comment.


China has previously denied U.S. charges that it is militarizing the South China Sea. In March, Premier Li Keqiang said defense equipment had been placed on islands in the disputed waterway to maintain "freedom of navigation."

A U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the presence of a fighter aircraft on Woody Island was not something unexpected.

"It is already heavily militarized; no surprise we would be seeing military aircraft there,” the official said.

Earlier on Thursday, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said he had ordered troops to occupy uninhabited islands and shoals it claims in the South China Sea, something likely to anger China, which claims most of the strategic waterway.
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