China's SCS Strategy Thread

[weig2000]

It is China's duty to protect Freedom of Navigation in SCS every day of the year. It is unclear what the purpose is of the occasional forays of USN in that sea.

It's particularly true considering the $5 trillion commerce that transits through SCS annually, the majority of which originated from or destined for China...

 

[sanblvd]

While Xi just arrives in Florida to meet with Trump, Trump launches 50 cruise missiles to attack Syria for launching chemical weapon. Here are the implications that I see for US and China.

In the short time, this is a big win for US because

1. Send a strong message to China in regarding North Korea, I think this will help Trump to gain some advantage to China in better persuade China to deal with North Korea. Because Trump shows Xi that he is not above shoot first and ask later, he would indirectly threaten to do this to NK nuke sites unless China do something.

2. The overall show of strength in front of Chinese leader, to show Xi that Trump is not out of the game yet no matter how unpopular he is. Because Trumps approval rating has pretty much hit rock bottom, and there was even beginning talks for him impeachment, now I see see changed around, to show Xi that I'm the man to deal with and I'm not going anywhere.

In the long time, I see big win for China

1. Trump was pushed by Kissinger, Mearsheimer and other think tanks to ally with Russia to contain China, with this strike, this is no longer possible, US and Russia relations will go back to the way it was, mutual hostility and suspicion, and on the long term this is absolutely very beneficial to China's strategic interest in SCS and other matters.

2. US will be stuck in the affair of the Middle East for many years to come, more involvement in Syria, Yemen, the civil war between Sunni and Shia, that means less attention paid to Asia policy, again great for China to do what it want in its own backyard, especially SCS

3. Many news and paper commentators was just saying yesterday that US and China relations is the most important thing in the world, and this is Trump's most important meeting so far in his presidency, but yet... one simple strike this meeting has been pushed out of the newspaper headlines, this is what China wants, it wants low key, it need times for US to get distracted so it can focus on its own stuff like economy, SCS more ship build up, and of course, I see the chance of SCS being brought up in this meeting is pushed even more to the back burner.

 

[Equation]

While Xi just arrives in Florida to meet with Trump, Trump launches 50 cruise missiles to attack Syria for launching chemical weapon. Here are the implications that I see for US and China.

In the short time, this is a big win for US because

1. Send a strong message to China in regarding North Korea, I think this will help Trump to gain some advantage to China in better persuade China to deal with North Korea. Because Trump shows Xi that he is not above shoot first and ask later, he would indirectly threaten to do this to NK nuke sites unless China do something.

2. The overall show of strength in front of Chinese leader, to show Xi that Trump is not out of the game yet no matter how unpopular he is. Because Trumps approval rating has pretty much hit rock bottom, and there was even beginning talks for him impeachment, now I see see changed around, to show Xi that I'm the man to deal with and I'm not going anywhere.

In the long time, I see big win for China

1. Trump was pushed by Kissinger, Mearsheimer and other think tanks to ally with Russia to contain China, with this strike, this is no longer possible, US and Russia relations will go back to the way it was, mutual hostility and suspicion, and on the long term this is absolutely very beneficial to China's strategic interest in SCS and other matters.

2. US will be stuck in the affair of the Middle East for many years to come, more involvement in Syria, Yemen, the civil war between Sunni and Shia, that means less attention paid to Asia policy, again great for China to do what it want in its own backyard, especially SCS

3. Many news and paper commentators was just saying yesterday that US and China relations is the most important thing in the world, and this is Trump's most important meeting so far in his presidency, but yet... one simple strike this meeting has been pushed out of the newspaper headlines, this is what China wants, it wants low key, it need times for US to get distracted so it can focus on its own stuff like economy, SCS more ship build up, and of course, I see the chance of SCS being brought up in this meeting is pushed even more to the back burner.

Like someone mentioned here in SDF at another thread before Trump striking at some unimportant targets isn't exactly sending a message to China in regards North Korea at all. He's just playing into his supporting crowd to get the pressure off him to succeed.

 

[sanblvd]

It can serve more than one purposes, so why not?

 

[Equation]

It can serve more than one purposes, so why not?

But it doesn't solve any key issues. It's just his showboating act to please his voters and make him as a man of action. He's not doing anything major or important. He just trying to be seem as an opposite of President Obama.

 

[sanblvd]

But it doesn't solve any key issues. It's just his showboating act to please his voters and make him as a man of action. He's not doing anything major or important. He just trying to be seem as an opposite of President Obama.

Let's stay on topic, I'm talking about in the frame work of SCS issue and Chinese interest, his strike to Syria is mostly motivated by domestic pressure yes, but at the same time, Xi is here so it also helps him in his negotiation with Xi. So why can it serve more than 1 purpose? That is what I meant.

 

[Equation]

Let's stay on topic, I'm talking about in the frame work of SCS issue and Chinese interest, his strike to Syria is mostly motivated by domestic pressure yes, but at the same time, Xi is here so it also helps him in his negotiation with Xi. So why can it serve more than 1 purpose? That is what I meant.

Because the strike affects Russia and Syria more than it would on Xi or SCS and North Korean issues. If Trump would want to send a message to Xi in regards to SCS or North Korea he would have done so already.

 

[sanblvd]

Because the strike affects Russia and Syria more than it would on Xi or SCS and North Korean issues. If Trump would want to send a message to Xi in regards to SCS or North Korea he would have done so already.

And I did list Russia in my post didn't I? And his strike will have effect in Xi's talk with Trump on NK isn't it?

I'm not sure whatever we are arguing or not, this is weird, anyway, I'm going to stop replying to you, so go ahead, have the last word you want.

 

[Equation]

And I did list Russia in my post didn't I? And his strike will have effect in Xi's talk with Trump on NK isn't it?

I'm not sure whatever we are arguing or not, this is weird, anyway, I'm going to stop replying to you, so go ahead, have the last word you want.

And my point that it will not affect Xi's meeting with President Trump what so ever. I don't know why you insist that it does.

 

[solarz]

And I did list Russia in my post didn't I? And his strike will have effect in Xi's talk with Trump on NK isn't it?

I agree with Equation here. This strike was obviously a propaganda show by Trump, and Russia was a part of it. Russia-US relations will not be damaged because of it, no matter what Putin is saying now.

As for China, it will have no effect on Xi for two reasons. First, NK and Syria are not comparable. Syria cannot fight back against US attacks. On the other hand, if the US launched an attack on NK, SK will be on the receiving end of a massive retaliation. In particular, the SK capital, Seoul, is within range of NK artillery. So attacking Syria and attacking NK are two completely different beasts.

Second, China has no stakes in Syria. That's Russia's game. The Americans could flatten Assad's palace, and it would be Putin who would be crying, not Xi. China only supports Syria as strategic consideration for Russia. If the US gets embroiled in a new Iraq War in Syria, then China can only benefit from it. However, it is highly unlikely that Trump would do so. He has demonstrated full well that he doesn't want to get the US into another war.