China's SCS Strategy Thread

found seconds ago in USNI News:
a2_ad.png

China’s anti-access area denial defensive layers. Office of Naval Intelligence Image

EDIT
I now posted that article in https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/us-military-news-reports-data-etc.t1547/page-620#post-418327
 
Last edited:
only now I read (dated September 09, 2016)
China Building on Scarborough Shoal? Don't Hold Your Breath.
For diplomatic and strategic reasons, now is not the time for Beijing to make such a risky move.
For over six months now, speculation has been rampant that China is gearing up to begin land reclamation (or,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, island building) at Scarborough Shoal, a disputed feature in the South China Sea roughly 355 km west of Manila. In March, U.S. Navy
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
the United States had observed “survey type activity” around Scarborough that could be a precursor to reclamation. A month later, South China Morning Post
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
by citing an anonymous source “close to the PLA Navy” as saying that China would carry out reclamation work at Scarborough “within this year.”

Speculation grew after an arbitral tribunal ruled heavily in the Philippines’ favor in its suit against Chinese claims and actions in the South China Sea. Some analysts argued that China might penalize Manila for the case (and the ruling) by building on Scarborough – but only after China finished hosting the G20 summit in Hangzhou. And China did send a number of ships to Scarborough during the summit, but contrary to initial rumors they were
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

The summit is over now – so, will China build? Looking at the diplomatic signals from China, and the current situation in the South China Sea, I’d argue it’s not likely, at least in the immediate future.

First, there’s the diplomatic context. China has consistently held up the 2002 China-ASEAN Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC) as the blueprint for handling the disputes. China even formally recommitted itself to the Declaration
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
issued with ASEAN after a foreign ministers meeting in Vientiane, Laos on July 25. The statement reaffirmed “that the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DoC) is a milestone document that embodies the collective commitment of the Parties to promote peace, stability, mutual trust and confidence in the region.” ASEAN and China also (re)committed themselves “to the full and effective implementation of the DOC in its entirety.”

Why does that matter for Scarborough? After all, many critics have accused China of repeatedly violating the DoC through its large-scale island building and construction activities in the South China Sea. At issue is the rather vague pledge that the parties will “exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability.” The catch is that what constitutes a complication or escalation of the disputes is in the eye of the beholder – and for that matter, so is “self-restraint.” China has repeatedly insisted that its construction doesn’t constitute escalation, and that its own actions are simply necessary countermeasures to other claimants’ moves. Beijing’s insistence that the projects are meant to provide public goods for all regional countries may ring hollow outside China, but it does provide Beijing with enough diplomatic cover to say it is not in violation of the DoC. (Ironically, China has no issue with arguing that other claimants’ construction and land reclamation projects do, in fact, violate the DoC.)

There is, however, one action that is explicitly pointed to in the DoC as off-limits: “inhabiting on the presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays, and other features.” Signatories have thus specifically undertaken to refrain from establishing a presence on currently uninhabited features as part of their commitment to “exercise self-restraint.” China may bend the rules beyond recognition, but to begin land reclamation and construction at Scarborough Shoal would be as clear cut a violation of the DoC as is possible for that vague, non-binding agreement.

China’s current strategy relies on exploiting the ambiguities in the DoC and in China’s verbal commitments (for instance, Xi’s pledge not to militarize the Spratlys, where militarization apparently does not include the construction of facilities with both military and civilian applications). There is no ambiguity in the pledge not to inhabit previously uninhabited shoals – of which Scarborough is one. For that reason, there is a vast diplomatic difference between reclamation at Scarborough and reclamation on features like Fiery Cross and Mischief Reef, where China had outposts before construction.

Further, China specifically went out of its way to highlight its commitment to the DoC at the July ASEAN-China foreign minister’s meeting. That commitment was reemphasized at the recent summit meeting between President Xi Jinping and his ASEAN counterparts. The
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
issued after the summit also contains a point reaffirming both sides’ commitment to the DoC and another point specifically welcoming “the adoption of the Joint Statement of the Foreign Ministers of ASEAN Member States and China on the Full and Effective Implementation of the DOC.”

In effect, then, this means China has publicly committed itself to not inhabit or physically occupy Scarborough Shoal twice in high level statements in the past two months by reaffirming the commitment made in the DoC. If Beijing planned to turn around and begin construction on Scarborough immediately after the conclusion of the Hangzhou summit, these ASEAN-China statements would be a needless diplomatic embarrassment – more than that, they would do serious damage to China’s reputation by undermining explicit commitments made multiple times in international meetings. Simply put, China’s two most recent joint statements with ASEAN make absolutely no sense if Beijing is really planning on building structures on Scarborough in the next months.

What, then, to make of the supposed Chinese sources that claim Beijing is ready to make its move on Scarborough? In part, just like China sending Coast Guard and maritime militia fleets to the shoal, it may simply be useful posturing. China knows the diplomatic costs of starting construction at Scarborough, but would also find it strategically useful to keep the threat in play for deterrence purposes.

However, the strategic situation has changed drastically since early reports of Chinese survey activity in March. On May 9, the Philippines – the other claimant to Scarborough – elected Rodrigo Duterte president. He assumed office on June 30, replacing Benigno Aquino III, who had adopted a hardline stance toward China and pursued even closer military relations with the United States, the Philippines’ ally. Duterte, by contrast, has repeatedly signaled his openness to doing business with China; his administration has even downplayed the arbitral tribunal ruling (the conclusion to a case initiated by Aquino). Meanwhile, Duterte has also signaled his ambivalence toward Washington and his relationship with Obama got off to a rocky start,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

In this context, there’s little geopolitical incentive for China to build on Scarborough. Doing so would push Duterte, a potential partner, to respond – likely by upping anti-China rhetoric and following Aquino’s lead in deepening cooperation with the United States. For China, building on Scarborough made sense with Aquino in office; the messaging, however, is all wrong for Duterte.

...
... goes on in the subsequent post due to size-limit; source:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
... continuation of the post right above; source:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China knows exactly how serious a step it would be to start reclamation at Scarborough. In a recent speech on U.S.-China strategic philosophy, Jin Canrong of Renmin University
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
“from the day we begin filling in Huangyan [Scarborough] to the day we finish, this will be an extremely tense time… this is an immense, historic risk.” To Jin, reclamation at Scarborough could be the beginning of the decisive U.S.-Chinese battle (literal or not) for influence in the region.

Jin predicted that China would take this step, but not until 2018. Further, the specific timing would meet certain criteria – Jin predicts that China will pick a time when Washington is heavily focused elsewhere in the world. Interestingly, he also speculates that China will “prepare some gifts to give the United States” on other issues like “North Korea, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan” – issues where the United States has long hope for more Chinese cooperation. Neither of those conditions are in place at the moment.

Reclamation at Scarborough is not a move Beijing would take lightly, particularly given its diplomatic commitments not to undertake such a project. As of now, the conditions aren’t right for such a move; China stands to lose more diplomatically than it would gain strategically from an outpost on Scarborough. Conditions, of course, change, particularly in the South China Sea – but construction in 2016, as South China Morning Post’s source predicted, seems less and less likely.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Well Duerte just don't talk only.he backed it up with deed
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Philippines Suspends Patrols With U.S. in South China Sea
Step, while small, is first sign of split in alliance since election of President Rodrigo Duterte
BN-QD753_1006ph_J_20161007033023.jpg
ENLARGE
Filipinos protested against U.S.-Philippine military exercises in Manila on Tuesday. Photo: francis r. malasig/European Pressphoto Agency
By
Trefor Moss
Updated Oct. 7, 2016 6:06 a.m. ET
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

MANILA—The Philippine defense chief said Friday that he had suspended participation in any joint patrols with the U.S. of the disputed South China Sea, the first concrete sign of a crack in the military alliance following the election of President Rodrigo Duterte.

Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana also said he also would ask a small detachment of American troops providing counterterrorism assistance on the southern island of Mindanao to leave as the president requested. But he said that would happen only after the Philippine military can carry out such operations on its own, something that could take years.

Since taking office June 30, Mr. Duterte has caught U.S. officials and his own military off guard with seemingly off-the-cuff pronouncements with potentially far-reaching strategic implications. His aim, he said, is to loosen ties with the U.S. and give his Southeast Asian country a more “independent” foreign policy, with “new alliances” with China and Russia.

In the wake of several anti-American outbursts, defense officials had repeatedly said they were waiting to see whether the president’s words amounted to actual policy, while U.S. officials said they hadn’t been notified of any changes to the alliance.

The U.S. Embassy in Manila didn’t immediately respond to questions Friday.

Mr. Lorenzana’s news conference indicated that the military was still sometimes out of the loop. Asked about the president’s statement last week that he wants to end all military exercises with U.S. forces, Mr. Lorenzana said his department was still awaiting an official directive. “We heard it on TV,” he said.

BN-QD752_1006ph_P_20161007032634.jpg
ENLARGE
In October 2015, U.S. Marines and their Philippine counterparts conducted an exercise in an area south of Manila. Photo: Associated Press
The two countries conduct 28 such drills annually, Mr. Lorenzana said, including one that began Tuesday and ends Oct. 12.

Mr. Lorenzana said there had only been two exercises involving the U.S. and Philippine navies in the South China Sea, but any future activity there was now “suspended.”

Asked if the U.S. had been informed, he said “they know it already. There is no patrol in the South China Sea.”

Armed Forces spokesman Brig. Gen. Restituto Padilla said later that no formal notice had been sent.

Mr. Duterte has said he wanted the patrols halted to avoid antagonizing Beijing, even though the Philippines won an arbitration case over the disputed territory in July, shortly after he took office.

Mr. Duterte also said he wanted U.S. troops out of Mindanao for their own safety. The Philippine military is engaged in a major assault against the extremist Abu Sayyaf group there and relies on U.S. for surveillance support.

Mr. Lorenzana said he had told the president that the 107 U.S. personnel in Mindanao could protect themselves.

“All they do is operate their drones and some intelligence equipment to help our troops in the south,” the defense chief told reporters. “Later on President Duterte said he doesn’t want [them] to leave immediately but maybe in the future.”

He said the Philippine military already planned to have the Americans leave “when we acquire our own drones.”

Washington and Manila had been deepening defense ties in recent years to counterbalance China’s rising influence, especially in the South China Sea, where Beijing has reclaimed land and constructed military bases in disputed areas in recent years.

A 2014 defense pact envisaging American troop deployments to Philippine bases had appeared to entrench the relationship. Mr. Duterte’s dramatic change of course now leaves those plans uncertain.

Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. spelled out the president’s position more explicitly in a Wednesday
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
post entitled “America has failed us.” It was time for the Philippines to free itself from the “shackling dependency” on the U.S.—which ran the Philippines as a colony until 1946, he wrote.

Asked about the post, Mr. Lorenzana said “there is truth to their statement.”

Since a mutual defense treaty was signed in 1951, the U.S. had only provided the Philippine military with “hand-me-downs,” he said. He also criticized past Philippine governments for not funding new equipment.

Mr. Lorenzana said he had tried to reassure his U.S. counterparts about the endurance of the alliance, but said the president was “sensitive” about criticism over his “war on terrorism and drugs especially.”

His first three months have been marked by a violent assault on alleged drug dealers and other criminals, in which more than 3,400 people have been killed, according to police figures. The U.S. and others have repeatedly raised concerns about human rights violations and respect for due process and the rule of law.

Mr. Duterte “feels that, ‘Why do they criticize me when I’m doing something good for my country?’,” Mr. Lorenzana said.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
China should extend an Oliver branch to the Philipines to show others that not actively antagonising China has benefits.

Maybe an offer of military assistance and advisors for counter-insurgency/terrorism, something China has a very strong CV on. Dating back all the way through the Cold War, and more recently in helping Sri Lanka bring its decades old civil war to a decisive end.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Completely agree There is no advantage to antagonize Duerte He is someone China can talk
Anyway here is interesting article from Strait time a different prespective from western media

South China Sea - Part Three: China's front-line fishermen
1 of 5
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

dummy.gif

In the last of a three-part series, The Straits Times focuses on the unlikely foot soldiers in Beijing's controversial move to lay claim to the South China Sea.
Published:
Apr 5, 2016, 5:00 am SGT
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Email
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
China Correspondent In Tanmen (Hainan)
Chinese fisherman Lin Guanyong knows he has a perilous job working in the South China Sea, and it is not just the weather.

He was detained once by the Vietnamese authorities in 2001, after he and his 20 crewmates were arrested and charged with illegal fishing in Vietnam's waters.

Their boat was towed to a port in Vietnam, where they stayed on board, while another boat was sent back to China to get the US$2,500 (S$3,400) needed to pay their fine. They were released after two weeks.

"We get harassed all the time by the Vietnamese coast guard," Mr Lin, 40, told The Straits Times.

"If they didn't arrest us, they would have boarded our boat, taken all our fish and whatever else they fancied."


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


And in a rare move last week, Vietnam reportedly seized a Chinese ship that its captain said was carrying fuel for fishing boats.

Clashes between coast guards and fishermen from different countries increasingly make the news. While Mr Lin admitted that he had crossed into foreign waters, he said fishermen from other countries often entered Chinese waters as well. Soon after their detention, he and his crew were back fishing in the same areas.

So he is glad that China's coast guard is building up its fleet to better protect its fishermen, who are often caught up in territorial disputes in the South China Sea as they venture further out with the thinning of stocks nearer to shore.

"My heart aches whenever I hear news that a Chinese fisherman has been arrested or hurt," said fishermen Mo Taifu, 60, who, like Mr Lin, is based in the fishing town of Tanmen, on the east coast of Hainan island, China's southernmost province.

While China's fishermen hail from many coastal provinces, including Zhejiang, Guangdong and Guangxi, those from Tanmen are among the most politically important for the country because they have been fishing for generations near the Spratlys.

"Their fishing activities and records are one of the main pieces of evidence for China's historical claims in the South China Sea," noted associate research fellow Zhang Hongzhou from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), an expert on China's fishing industry and maritime security.

Some of Tanmen's fishermen are actively involved in territorial tussles. In a stand-off two years ago with Vietnam over China's positioning of an oil rig near the disputed Paracel Islands, both countries encouraged their fishing fleets to enter the area to disrupt each other's plans. Many Chinese boats which did were from Tanmen.

Tanmen's political importance was further underscored by a historic visit in 2013 from President Xi Jinping, who urged fishermen to support the government's island constructions in the South China Sea, adding that the authorities would protect them.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

ST_20160416_CWSCS_2219007.jpg

Related Story
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

ST_20160405_CWTANMEN_2190912.jpg

Related Story
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

For years, the fishermen have already been helping to deliver supplies and maintain their presence in China's Spratly outposts. Mr Lin joined one such effort in 2012.


"The government paid the boat owner 180,000 yuan (S$37,500) to go to the Spratlys," he said. "We were there for two weeks. They didn't care whether we fished or not, they just wanted us there."

But the fishermen say they also need to venture further now because stocks nearer shore are being depleted to satisfy demand from the world's biggest seafood consumer. China's fishery production has risen dramatically - from five million tonnes in 1978 to 64.6 million tonnes in 2014.

Fishermen interviewed by The Straits Times said they head out to the South China Sea for increasingly rare fish like the golden threadfin bream, whose wholesale prices have doubled from 30 to 60 yuan per kg in the past five years.

As such, retired fisherman Li Huabo, 70, feels it is "ridiculous" that other countries want to deny them their fishing rights. He began fishing when he was a teenager, and both his father and grandfather fished in the Spratlys.

"We fished in these seas way before others," he said. "How can they stop us?"

Similarly for Mr Shi Yingbo, 60, fishing runs in the family.

He said his father was once caught by the Malaysian authorities in the 1980s. They wanted him to sign papers admitting that he had trespassed into foreign waters.

"He said even if they beat him to death, he would not sign the papers. I would do the same if I were in his shoes," said Mr Shi, whose father was released after being detained for three months.



But while protecting what many Tanmen fishermen call their "ancestral seas" is important, they are ultimately most concerned about their livelihoods, and are not merely passive actors following government orders, noted Mr Zhang from RSIS in Singapore.

"The fisherman don't want war in the South China Sea as they will be prevented from fishing and their lives will be threatened," he said.

In fact, fishing is an increasingly difficult livelihood, said fisherman Wang Jingming, 28, as the development of China's farmed fish sector puts the squeeze on prices of some species. Stricter enforcement of bans on certain seafood items, including the lucrative giant clam, is adding to their woes.

"We had some government officials come to teach us how to improve our fishing technologies to improve our efficiency," said Mr Wang. "But our margins are thinner than before."

He added that this is why Tanmen's fishermen still depend on fuel subsidies from the government.

"I'm uneducated, that's why I'm a fisherman," said Mr Lin, a father of three. "I'll do this for another 10 or 20 years, but I hope my children don't follow in my footsteps."

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
Not the SCS issue but the real possibility of Trump becoming president is freaking out all US allies in Asia.
They are scared of the man more than China.
 

joshuatree

Captain
.....
Anyway here is interesting article from Strait time a different prespective from western media

....


"We had some government officials come to teach us how to improve our fishing technologies to improve our efficiency," said Mr Wang. "But our margins are thinner than before."

He added that this is why Tanmen's fishermen still depend on fuel subsidies from the government.

What the Chinese govt should do since they are subsidizing is to issue a different type of job to these fishermen. Instead of subsidizing them to go out to those waters and fish. Subsidize them to go out there to conduct resource conservation and cleanup. Two birds with one stone - demonstrate continued use and presence in the area but also becoming a leader in green initiatives.


China should extend an Oliver branch to the Philipines to show others that not actively antagonising China has benefits.

Maybe an offer of military assistance and advisors for counter-insurgency/terrorism, something China has a very strong CV on. Dating back all the way through the Cold War, and more recently in helping Sri Lanka bring its decades old civil war to a decisive end.

Agreed, nothing would better demonstrate the positives of bilateral engagement that China wants than to lower tensions and extend an olive branch with the change in tone from the Philippines.

I think far more effective would be to help the Philippines build key infrastructure in their southern islands. Power shortages are still an issue for them. Can't develop the economy without stable and reliable infrastructure. A weak economic prospect creates fertile ground for discontent. And as the Philippine economy grows, so do business opportunities between both countries.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
China should extend an Oliver branch to the Philipines to show others that not actively antagonising China has benefits.

Maybe an offer of military assistance and advisors for counter-insurgency/terrorism, something China has a very strong CV on. Dating back all the way through the Cold War, and more recently in helping Sri Lanka bring its decades old civil war to a decisive end.

They already have Mr. Wolf, why else would Duterte be "flexing his mouth"??? China recognizes a political ally when they see one, Mr. Duterte recognizes that he can "insult" a long time friend of the Philipines, and the Chinese will likely put him on the payroll, he gets lots of perks, sells out the folks worried about China's aggressive expansion, and becomes China's "boy wonder" on a string, with perks of course!

Same things been going on in Chicago for over a century, LOL!
 
Last edited:
Top