Yes, we have been through this many times. Even were the DF-21D fully operational and fully supported, it remains a fact that the USN already has a ready defense against it in the form of the SM-3 and the SM-6. So while the DF-21D gives the PLAN an additional weapon against American CSGs, it is by no mean any kind of gamechanger in the Western Pacific.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
antiterror13
Brigadier
I don't think it is a game changer, but it it seriously one of many variables to be dealt with by USN ...... I think the main objective is to deter USN CBG to get close to China' shore .... I think China would be reasonably happy if it can deter USN CBG and stay far away from China's coast (1500-2000 kms)
That's exactly my point.
As the US-aligned propaganda machine persistently hammers away with its multi-pronged brainwashing campaign framing China on a "pedestal" as the threatening bully while simultaneously goading everyone (including China itself in a reverse psychology way coming from the other direction) into discord with China the "paper tiger" preferably with US "help", it's easy to forget that the US and its allies/proxies have plenty of capability to and actually do threaten, bully, salami slice, and instigate tensions and conflict as much as anyone else.
I have to agree to disagree on this one.
ASBMs, or more specifically, DF-21D and DF-26, is a game-changer. It's an innovative way to integrate medium or intermediate range BMs with various C4ISR assets to hit moving targets in the ocean, something that has never been done before and is difficult to do. They pose a threat to aircraft carriers within their effective range, thus potentially reduce the effectiveness of the carriers, something that other means are difficult to achieve. Aircraft carriers are the primary power projection platform for the US, particularly in the Western Pacific where basing options are limited and geography is more challenging.
Clearly, the USN takes ASBMs threat seriously. Let's at least admit that. The USN or other navies that have felt the threat are understandably working on ways to deal with the threat, whether that is SM-3 or SM-6 or other means. Over time, they may find ways to better deal with and reduce the threat of ASBMs. And then the cycles of improving spears and improving shields will continue.
To me, the fact that the USN admits and takes ASBM threat very seriously and China displays them very publicly (and has invested heavily in the R&D of ASBM, as disclosed by a lot of research papers in the area) are evidence enough for me they're not just smoke-and-mirror. They're real weapons.
Now, it's fair to question how effective these ASMBs are in a real battle-field environment, because after all they're not battle-tested. But I don't think the USN believes they can handle the threat with 100% confidence now, or China believes they can hit a carrier with guaranteed success (it's a probability thing). But isn't this also true for a lot of weapons developed during the cold war?
Clearly, the USN takes ASBMs threat seriously. Let's at least admit that. The USN or other navies that have felt the threat are understandably working on ways to deal with the threat, whether that is SM-3 or SM-6 or other means. Over time, they may find ways to better deal with and reduce the threat of ASBMs. And then the cycles of improving spears and improving shields will continue.
To me, the fact that the USN admits and takes ASBM threat very seriously and China displays them very publicly (and has invested heavily in the R&D of ASBM, as disclosed by a lot of research papers in the area) are evidence enough for me they're not just smoke-and-mirror. They're real weapons.
Now, it's fair to question how effective these ASMBs are in a real battle-field environment, because after all they're not battle-tested. But I don't think the USN believes they can handle the threat with 100% confidence now, or China believes they can hit a carrier with guaranteed success (it's a probability thing). But isn't this also true for a lot of weapons developed during the cold war?
Jura The idiot
General
... yes
my point of viewJan 6, 2014
only now I noticed something to this effect had been posted earlier by... So even performing the test would also help the US Navy
Bltizo
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/mo...tegies-and-tactics.t4918/page-230#post-253625
(and possibly by others even earlier, in about two hundred previous pages of
Modern Carrier Battle Group..Strategies and Tactics
or elsewhere
the new question: have SM-3, SM-6 been tested against ballistic missiles flying a trajectory other than the nominal? (as in 'maneuvering at various altitudes')
I don't think the DF-21D as it stands now can keep the USN out that far from the Chinese coast. Until China builds up a more robust targeting chain and stocks more missiles, the DF-21D is essentially a non-issue if used in isolation from other methods of attack. My own estimation of ~500km is based on shore and FAC-based ASCMs, land-based fighters, and diesel subs, where a confluence of multiple platforms can provide an overwhelming mass of fires against an intruding CSG.
It's funny how adamant you are in claiming that they are in fact "game changers" and then go on to admit that they are of questionable effectiveness in a "real battle-field environment". While nobody is claiming that the US isn't taking the ASBM threat seriously or that ASBMs aren't "real weapons", this is far different from saying the USN isn't confident in being able to deal with ASBMs. Your surreally unrealistic requirement of "100%" confidence about a defensive system was shared by no admiral ever.
BTW, it's time for you to MAN UP about your dishonest accusation of me.
Jura The idiot
General
DF-21D will be launched amid heavy confrontation of conventional forces.
It's gonna be used in conjunction with all other weapons.
Why singling out DF-21D by itself? It ain't gonna go solo. Makes No Sense.
The idea of DF-21D is this.
Each missile carries warheads and decoys. If multiple DF-21D coming down. Is the carrier group gonna engage and shoot every single decoy and warhead?
SM missile gonna take out all warheads and decoys regardless whether its has good targeting. it cannot take chances. It can overload the system.
Keep in that swarms of antiship missiles coming side ways too and some of them reach Mach 4 speed,
Each missile carries warheads and decoys. If multiple DF-21D coming down. Is the carrier group gonna engage and shoot every single decoy and warhead?
SM missile gonna take out all warheads and decoys regardless whether its has good targeting. it cannot take chances. It can overload the system.
Keep in that swarms of antiship missiles coming side ways too and some of them reach Mach 4 speed,
antiterror13
Brigadier
Exactly ... thats the idea ... to deter USN CBG get close to China's shore ... it won't go just itself ..... multiple dimensions