I do not know...the comments the new president made this week particularly about the SCS were pretty inflammatory and over the top if you ask me.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
Oh there is no doubt that Duterte is very much a hot head, and says a lot of things that are otherwise not very diplomatic -- but I think that is one of the traits of his character.
He's insulted everyone from the US, to the UN, to the Pope, in both personal and political ways, so his remarks about the SCS issue is not too out of character.
However, his long term comments (and actions that he's made) about the SCS since he entered his presidency are on the whole much more open and leaves a lot more room for discussion, than his predecessor's effective burning of the bridge.
I definitely won't judge how effective his tactic will be going forward, but I think at this stage he is being much more flexible than Aquino was, and I'm sure China is heaving a sigh of relief that they're going to be dealing with someone like Duterte than someone like Aquino.
More drills between Russia and China, this time in the SCS.
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August 22, 2016 ALEXANDER KORABLINOV, RBTH
Cultural events will also be held within the framework of the drills.
Russia and China have agreed to hold their planned joint drills in the South China on September 12-19, Vladimir Matveyev, a spokesman for the Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet told TASS on August 22. Sporting and cultural events will also be held within the framework of the drills, he added.
Matveyev said the exercises would focus on organized efforts to protect merchant ships in the South China Sea. There will also be landings on islands, he added.
In July, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said the drills were “not directed against third countries.”
However, some Chinese analysts have interpreted Russia’s willingness to take part in the exercises as an endorsement of Chinese claims in South China Sea maritime territorial disputes.
Earlier in August, the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Australia is likely to have military assets in the South China Sea to gather vital intelligence on the Sino-Russian drills.
The paper cited an anonymous defense source as saying that assets were expected to be used to collect information.
Information from a Kommersant report was used in this article
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August 22, 2016 ALEXANDER KORABLINOV, RBTH
Cultural events will also be held within the framework of the drills.
Russia and China have agreed to hold their planned joint drills in the South China on September 12-19, Vladimir Matveyev, a spokesman for the Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet told TASS on August 22. Sporting and cultural events will also be held within the framework of the drills, he added.
Matveyev said the exercises would focus on organized efforts to protect merchant ships in the South China Sea. There will also be landings on islands, he added.
In July, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said the drills were “not directed against third countries.”
However, some Chinese analysts have interpreted Russia’s willingness to take part in the exercises as an endorsement of Chinese claims in South China Sea maritime territorial disputes.
Earlier in August, the Sydney Morning Herald reported that Australia is likely to have military assets in the South China Sea to gather vital intelligence on the Sino-Russian drills.
The paper cited an anonymous defense source as saying that assets were expected to be used to collect information.
Information from a Kommersant report was used in this article
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I seriously doubt the Vietnamese naval built up had any meaningful impact on Chinese diplomatic attitudes towards them.
If China is prepared to face up to the USN over the SCS, what deterrence is Vietnam's nice, but ultimately fundamentally outmatched navy?
The whole 'military might can deter China' angle is cooked up and promoted by vested interests who want to create that impression in the minds of people's in the west and Asia.
Never ever in the history of the PRC has trying to strong arm China with the threat of military force ever produced a positive response from China towards those making the threats. Trying to use such tactics always gets China's hackles up, and I would argue was instrumental in many military conflicts that involved China, most notably in Korea.
Vietnam should know this lesson pretty intimately themselves, since China fought several wars to reinforce the lesson over the decades, when the relative economic and military strengths between the two were far closer, or even when Vietnam had the naval military advantage.
If anything, the new SCS islands pretty much removes any and all hope the likes of Vietnam ever had to score even token military victories against Chinese forces in any conflict scenario other than a surprise attack against local Chinese forces.
Before, the distances involved meant the PLAAF would struggle to provide consistent CAP, meaning PLAN surface ships might have to fend off air attacks from Vietnamese Flankers by themselves, so could quite conceivably end up taking damage or even losses.
Now, with both fighters and AWACS able to deploy from the new island bases, the Liaoning and more carriers to come, the table are well and truly turned.
The PLAAF could quite easily establish air dominance and then sink any and every Vietnamese naval ship pretty much anywhere in the SCS with near zero risk to their assets since they can fire swarms of missiles from several times the distance of the longest ranged anti air weapons the Vietnamese fleet has.
China has Kilos themselves and for longer than the Vietnamese have had them, so will not only know the strengths and weaknesses of the type as well as any Vietnamese shop captain and crew, but would also have a lot of experience on how to hunt and kill them from their own internal confrontational training. And may even have useable acquostic signatures from their own boats they can use to help make it easier to find Vietnamese kilos.
It should be noted that Vietnam didn't just acquire their shinny new navy overnight. They have had those ships in place for quite some time now.
If one was to actually examine the timeline, one could see a strong correlation between the strength of the Vietnamese navy, and the brazenness of their land grabbing activities in the SCS.
It is only recently that Vietnam has started adopting a far more reasonable tone and attitude in their activities in the SCS. What was the biggest recent development in the SCS? Oh, it could only be China's island building, which has fundamentally transformed the tactical and strategic dynamic in the region, which in turn, is only natural that regional players like Vietnam would adjust their own risk-rewards calculations and behaviours in response.
Of course, if one was to starting looking at the facts too closely, one might get the heretical idea that Chinese military might might actually act as a stabilising factor, by removing the prospect for misguided military adventurism from others by removing any and all reasonable prospects for miscalculation. In exactly the same way the Pengaton insists that overwhelming American military might is a stablising factor in all the far away places they decide they have to operate in.
It is an endless source of comic amusement seeing the 'free' western media bend over backward while trying to split the finest hairs to artificially create a difference between what China does snd what the west does when the two are doing pretty much exactly the same thing.
If China is prepared to face up to the USN over the SCS, what deterrence is Vietnam's nice, but ultimately fundamentally outmatched navy?
The whole 'military might can deter China' angle is cooked up and promoted by vested interests who want to create that impression in the minds of people's in the west and Asia.
Never ever in the history of the PRC has trying to strong arm China with the threat of military force ever produced a positive response from China towards those making the threats. Trying to use such tactics always gets China's hackles up, and I would argue was instrumental in many military conflicts that involved China, most notably in Korea.
Vietnam should know this lesson pretty intimately themselves, since China fought several wars to reinforce the lesson over the decades, when the relative economic and military strengths between the two were far closer, or even when Vietnam had the naval military advantage.
If anything, the new SCS islands pretty much removes any and all hope the likes of Vietnam ever had to score even token military victories against Chinese forces in any conflict scenario other than a surprise attack against local Chinese forces.
Before, the distances involved meant the PLAAF would struggle to provide consistent CAP, meaning PLAN surface ships might have to fend off air attacks from Vietnamese Flankers by themselves, so could quite conceivably end up taking damage or even losses.
Now, with both fighters and AWACS able to deploy from the new island bases, the Liaoning and more carriers to come, the table are well and truly turned.
The PLAAF could quite easily establish air dominance and then sink any and every Vietnamese naval ship pretty much anywhere in the SCS with near zero risk to their assets since they can fire swarms of missiles from several times the distance of the longest ranged anti air weapons the Vietnamese fleet has.
China has Kilos themselves and for longer than the Vietnamese have had them, so will not only know the strengths and weaknesses of the type as well as any Vietnamese shop captain and crew, but would also have a lot of experience on how to hunt and kill them from their own internal confrontational training. And may even have useable acquostic signatures from their own boats they can use to help make it easier to find Vietnamese kilos.
It should be noted that Vietnam didn't just acquire their shinny new navy overnight. They have had those ships in place for quite some time now.
If one was to actually examine the timeline, one could see a strong correlation between the strength of the Vietnamese navy, and the brazenness of their land grabbing activities in the SCS.
It is only recently that Vietnam has started adopting a far more reasonable tone and attitude in their activities in the SCS. What was the biggest recent development in the SCS? Oh, it could only be China's island building, which has fundamentally transformed the tactical and strategic dynamic in the region, which in turn, is only natural that regional players like Vietnam would adjust their own risk-rewards calculations and behaviours in response.
Of course, if one was to starting looking at the facts too closely, one might get the heretical idea that Chinese military might might actually act as a stabilising factor, by removing the prospect for misguided military adventurism from others by removing any and all reasonable prospects for miscalculation. In exactly the same way the Pengaton insists that overwhelming American military might is a stablising factor in all the far away places they decide they have to operate in.
It is an endless source of comic amusement seeing the 'free' western media bend over backward while trying to split the finest hairs to artificially create a difference between what China does snd what the west does when the two are doing pretty much exactly the same thing.
Interesting how Vietnameses can forgive and forget millions killed and hundred of thousands more from agent Orange in Vietnam War yet nowadays, they do memorial services for 100 sailors died in Spratley and Paracel island conflicts with China.
I guess they only care territories lost and gain, how many their people died, they don't care.
In a military conflict with China , I think Vietnamese care more about their expensive Military hardwares(they had to sell alot of shrimps and shoes to get those) than their soldier lives which they don't consider worth a whole lot.
I guess they only care territories lost and gain, how many their people died, they don't care.
In a military conflict with China , I think Vietnamese care more about their expensive Military hardwares(they had to sell alot of shrimps and shoes to get those) than their soldier lives which they don't consider worth a whole lot.
joshuatree
Captain
However, I do see Vietnam's naval build up being a factor in China deciding to move forward with the SCS land reclamation projects. Putting sensors on these features will already counter and blunt Vietnam's new subs and frigates without even taking into account Chinese military hardware because it will track movement of Vietnam's units early on.
Unless any particular actor decides to do a surprise first strike at those facilities now, the prospect of any surprise attacks will be zero when the facilities have reached full operational status.
joshuatree
Captain
Because it suits their current agenda. This will be the same for any state.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
@joshuatree
Sorry, my quote function doesn't seem to work.
You are correct, Vietnamese behaviour, including its naval build up, would have been fundamental in convincing the Chinese government to green light the island building project.
My point is that the Vietnamese naval build up has a near zero impact on the recent reconciliatory moves being made between China and Vietnam.
Those tension easing moves are coming about not because the Vietnamese have somehow managed to strengthen their bargaining power, quite the contrary, they happened after China built island bases and the recent high profile deployments of HQ9 long range SAMs.
Rather then the mighty Vietnamese navy cowing China into suing for peace, it looks the exact opposite - the Vietnamese got carried away with how mighty they thought their navy was, and also how prepared America was to go fight a war for them.
So they were more than happy to play cats paw to Obama and Hillary, 'safe' in the knowledge that they can aggressively seize islands in the SCS and America wouldn't make a peep, but instead would jump on any reactionary counters China made to those Vietnamese expansionist moves with indecent haste to invert the truth and make China out to be the bad guy when it's them who are going out of their way to upset the balance in the region that has held for decades, all to create the diplomatic cover they need to justify their pivot to Asia.
Their greatest mistake was in fundamentally underestimating both the capabilities and will of the Chinese.
They thought they had the Chinese out maneuvered, that by picking a fight in the SCS, the distances involved would disadvantage China, and deter China from standing their ground. Thereby allow America's new eager proxies to take effective military control of the vital (to China! But that part is always left out in the western media summaries, I wonder why?
) shipping lanes of the SCS, thus giving those countries the means to threaten China's sea based lines of communications without the USN having to do the dirty work itself.
Instead, China build islands literally out of nothing, and now has a commanding tactical and strategic advantage in any conflict scenario.
In any conflict scenario now, any PLAN fleet will enjoy the full range of home turf advantage, able to deploy land based missile batteries, fighters, strikers and support assets from those island bases right in the heart of the region. All its short ranged assets like 022 FAC and 056 FFGs will also be able to be effectively utilised, and the island bases will also make PLAN SSK operations far easier and more effective.
In effect, those island bases would allow the PLA to fight as if they were fighting along China's mainland coast.
Even the US is not keen to have a go at that challenge, hence its refusal to commit to the defence of the Philippines in anything short of a Chinese invasion.
The Vietnamese are not stupid, the exact opposite in fact, they did all the sums and realised which way the wind is now blowing.
Just as they were one of the first to jump on the American band wagon to antagonise China when it looked like America had the winning hand, they are now keen to get a first mover advantage by being the first to switch sides.
They are playing on the fact that China is keen not to be seen as the bad guy and always focuses on the bigger picture, so would be prepared to swallow its anger and cut a deal with Vietnam to weaken the US lead anti-China alliance.
Honorless, but smart.
Sorry, my quote function doesn't seem to work.
You are correct, Vietnamese behaviour, including its naval build up, would have been fundamental in convincing the Chinese government to green light the island building project.
My point is that the Vietnamese naval build up has a near zero impact on the recent reconciliatory moves being made between China and Vietnam.
Those tension easing moves are coming about not because the Vietnamese have somehow managed to strengthen their bargaining power, quite the contrary, they happened after China built island bases and the recent high profile deployments of HQ9 long range SAMs.
Rather then the mighty Vietnamese navy cowing China into suing for peace, it looks the exact opposite - the Vietnamese got carried away with how mighty they thought their navy was, and also how prepared America was to go fight a war for them.
So they were more than happy to play cats paw to Obama and Hillary, 'safe' in the knowledge that they can aggressively seize islands in the SCS and America wouldn't make a peep, but instead would jump on any reactionary counters China made to those Vietnamese expansionist moves with indecent haste to invert the truth and make China out to be the bad guy when it's them who are going out of their way to upset the balance in the region that has held for decades, all to create the diplomatic cover they need to justify their pivot to Asia.
Their greatest mistake was in fundamentally underestimating both the capabilities and will of the Chinese.
They thought they had the Chinese out maneuvered, that by picking a fight in the SCS, the distances involved would disadvantage China, and deter China from standing their ground. Thereby allow America's new eager proxies to take effective military control of the vital (to China! But that part is always left out in the western media summaries, I wonder why?
) shipping lanes of the SCS, thus giving those countries the means to threaten China's sea based lines of communications without the USN having to do the dirty work itself.Instead, China build islands literally out of nothing, and now has a commanding tactical and strategic advantage in any conflict scenario.
In any conflict scenario now, any PLAN fleet will enjoy the full range of home turf advantage, able to deploy land based missile batteries, fighters, strikers and support assets from those island bases right in the heart of the region. All its short ranged assets like 022 FAC and 056 FFGs will also be able to be effectively utilised, and the island bases will also make PLAN SSK operations far easier and more effective.
In effect, those island bases would allow the PLA to fight as if they were fighting along China's mainland coast.
Even the US is not keen to have a go at that challenge, hence its refusal to commit to the defence of the Philippines in anything short of a Chinese invasion.
The Vietnamese are not stupid, the exact opposite in fact, they did all the sums and realised which way the wind is now blowing.
Just as they were one of the first to jump on the American band wagon to antagonise China when it looked like America had the winning hand, they are now keen to get a first mover advantage by being the first to switch sides.
They are playing on the fact that China is keen not to be seen as the bad guy and always focuses on the bigger picture, so would be prepared to swallow its anger and cut a deal with Vietnam to weaken the US lead anti-China alliance.
Honorless, but smart.
Heh, I do agree with this, and when Jeff mentioned Vietnam's military modernization as having a meaningful impact on the potential for rapprochement I deliberately added on other factors like international diplomacy, economic influence, etc on behalf of both sides that were also major contributing factors... to be more diplomatic about it, and also to indirectly express my belief that Vietnam's military capability is probably only a relatively small factor.
However, technically speaking I'm sure Vietnam's modernization of its military would still have contributed a small amount to China's calculus, but it probably was/is not perceived as any sort of major big threat.
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I'd prefer to avoid discussing the motivations for Vietnam's actions (and at this stage the actions are still in the early phase by both sides -- we dont' know what may come of it), and I'd like to avoid discussing conflict scenarios in too much detail... however I do think you are slightly overestimating the utility of those reclaimed islands at this stage... and potentially gravely underestimating their vulnerability to cruise missile strikes and air strikes.
This isn't to say the reclaimed islands will have no military utility during peacetime or wartime, but I definitely would not describe them as allowing "the PLA to fight as if they were fighting along China's mainland coast".
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plawolf
Lieutenant General
That's a matter of opinion.
If left to fend for themselves, those islands would be massively vulnerable.
However, with the PLAN fleet backing them up, it would be exceptionally difficult and costly to inflict enough damage with missiles and air strikes to knock them out of the fight and keep them out.
With a PLAN fleet nearby, those islands will enjoy the kind of multi layered air defences the equal of any CSG. And that's just from the PLAN fleet elements.
In addition, they could put dozens of LD2000 CIWS, AAA, short and medium ranged missiles on each of the islands and just exhaust and attacker's missile stocks.
Any missiles that do come through will cause damage, but unlike a ship, that damage could be easily and quickly repair, with replacement units brought in for anything equipment that gets taken out.
The islands would form unsinkable missile spungs, able to defeat and absorb an order of magnitude more missile and bomb strikes than any enemy fleet's entire munitions inventories.
In the history of modern naval warfare, it is hard to find examples where island strong points have been neutralised by anything other than direct invasion or blockade.
Therein lies real vulnerability of those islands, as are the same as any island campaign in history - the supply lines.
If an enemy could cut the supply lines to those islands, those islands become irrelevant even if the garrison keeps possession of it.
Those islands and the PLAN fleet, as well as PLAAF assets that will be forward deployed, not to mention China's ADA2 assets will be able to every effectively curb the air and surface activities of hostile forces, or at least make any air and surface attack cost prohibitive and largely ineffective.
The key to how well those islands can fulfil the role the PLA high command wants and needs them to would be determined by how effectively the PLAN could combat subsurface hostile threats behind the islands.
This is why the PLAN has ordered 056s in such numbers - that is the area where they know they are vulnerable, which is what the 056, and especially its ASW variant, is designed to address.
Those will act as your traditional sub chasers and convoy escorts, with air support from the smaller Chinese helicopter bases, as well as maybe future PLAN LHDs, which will function as fleet carriers or ASW helicopter carriers.
In terms of missiles and bombs, I am confident those islands can take anything any hostile fleet could throw at them. It's keeping those islands reinforced and supplied where the PLAN will probably have the biggest worries and take the bigger losses.
Funny you cut the quantifying remark out in that quote. Trying to make it sound less reasonable to strengthen your counter?
In terms of defensive and offensive power, any enemy fleet assaulting those islands will face pretty much the same threats as they would if they were assaulting the Chinese mainland itself. They will have to contend with the PLAN fleet, the PLAAF top cover and AWACS support, coastal FACS as well as probably land based air defences and offensive missile batteries.
If anything, assaulting those islands may actually be harder than attacking the Chinese mainland.
If the Chinese fleet were defending the mainland, they need to place themselves in front of the coast, both because of simply geography, but also because there are high value assets they need to protect on the mainland, which are pretty much entirely absent with the islands.
That puts the more vulnerable ships up front, so every enemy missile that gets through is potentially a capital ship sunk, out of the fight, or at a minimum having significantly degraded combat capabilities.
An attacking enemy could grind the PLAN fleet to nothing with enough missiles and bombs, which will ultimately open up the coast and inland areas to direct attack, where the real damage can be done.
OTOH, with those islands, China can pick and choose what it deploys and only place assets it is prepared to loose on them in times of war.
That means they know they can afford to let a certain percentage of missiles through to hit the islands, and the damage will be entirely manageable. That has profound implications for combat doctorine, tactics and munitions expenditure, which will allow them to be able withstand attacks significantly larger than that which would overwhelm a fleet's defences.
The PLAN fleet can shelter behind the islands, so that any enemy attack will have to get past the island defences before they can even think about trying to get past the PLAN's fleets' own multi layered air defences. Which would be more effective than normal, as they will have advanced warning of the incoming attack from the islands.
The USN fleet could shoot its entire cruise missile inventory at those islands, and the Chinese will just come out of their bunkers, bulldoze the craters and unpack fresh air defences and AShM batteries from air drops and supply ships and be back in business long before the USN fleet is even back at a friendly base to restock on munitions.
The only way to make such an bombardment 'stick' is to immediately follow it up with a full amphibious invasion to take those islands.