Good news for China. The new Philippine president seems genuine in his desire to enter bilateral negotiations, and it doesn't appear he'll do everything the US would like him to either. He's a Philippine nationalist from what I've seen, so he won't give China a free pass, but tensions in the SCS should be reduced quite a lot from this point. Vietnam may feel forced to change its tactics a bit too.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
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Good news for China. The new Philippine president seems genuine in his desire to enter bilateral negotiations, and it doesn't appear he'll do everything the US would like him to either. He's a Philippine nationalist from what I've seen, so he won't give China a free pass, but tensions in the SCS should be reduced quite a lot from this point. Vietnam may feel forced to change its tactics a bit too.
Equation
Lieutenant General
It's too early to tell, we just have to wait and see.
Interesting fact that I learned today - did you know that there are over 100 Japanese citizens who reside on Okinotori?
This is surely a study in unintended consequences. If the Philippines hadn't pushed its absurd claims against the status of Itu Aba in the PCA so hard, then Taiwan wouldn't have woken up and realized just how strong its claims are to the Spratlys under international law, and wouldn't have recognized the legal holes in Japan's EEZ claims around Okinotori.
Aside from the ROC, all of the other claimants pretty much just grabbed uninhabited rocks to support their territorial claims to the Spratlys.
If the Philipines cannot convince UNCLOS to rule against Itu Aba, this case actually weakens the Philippines' position in the Spratlys, especially since the premise of their argument implies a tacit recognition of the fact that all of the Filipino-held islands, Thitu Island included, are rocks under UNCLOS.
And, confirmation here that Thitu Island does not have its own source of drinking water:
This is surely a study in unintended consequences. If the Philippines hadn't pushed its absurd claims against the status of Itu Aba in the PCA so hard, then Taiwan wouldn't have woken up and realized just how strong its claims are to the Spratlys under international law, and wouldn't have recognized the legal holes in Japan's EEZ claims around Okinotori.
Aside from the ROC, all of the other claimants pretty much just grabbed uninhabited rocks to support their territorial claims to the Spratlys.
Taiping is an island that deserves a large exclusive economic zone. The same can’t be said of Japan’s Okinotori reef.
Two Taiwanese soldiers ride past a sign reading "the sovereignty" on Taiping island in the Spratlys chain in the South China Sea on March 23. Photo: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
By
Ma Ying-jeou
May 16, 2016 12:29 p.m. ET
Right now in the Western Pacific, Taiwan is mired in two disputes over the legal status of an island. These claims hinge on the very definition of an island under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and their outcome stands to influence the way maritime business is conducted the world over.
At The Hague, the Philippines is in the middle of an arbitration case against mainland China. As part of its argument, Manila is attempting to downgrade to the status of a mere rock Taiwan’s Taiping Island (also known as Itu Aba), in the South China Sea.
According to Article 121 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or Unclos, an island must be able to sustain human habitation and economic life in order to claim a continental shelf and an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of 200 nautical miles. Any rock that doesn’t meet these two criteria can only claim territorial waters of 12 nautical miles.
During a hearing before the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the end of November, the Philippines claimed that Taiping Island has no fresh water or arable land, and human inhabitation is impossible without supplies imported from outside. It is therefore, according to the Philippines, only a rock. That claim is patently false.
Taiping Island, the largest naturally formed land feature in the Nansha (Spratly) Islands, covers an area of 0.51 square kilometers. It has ample natural fresh water. It has arable land, with natural and fertile soil that produces more than 10 species of fruits and vegetables. It supports chickens, goats and dogs. The island has dense stands of native tropical trees that are more than 100 years old and range from 10 to 20 meters tall. There are historical traces verifying almost a century of human habitation and economic activity on the island.
Meanwhile, Japan is asserting that its Okinotori reef are not rocks but an island, and therefore entitled to a continental shelf and EEZ. Based on that illegal claim, on April 26 Japan detained a Taiwan-registered fishing boat operating outside Okinotori’s territorial waters. The ship’s captain was strip searched, and the ship’s detainees released only after a ¥6 million “security deposit” was paid.
Japan’s intent to establish state practice in that maritime area is clear. But Okinotori reef consists of two rocks that are barely 16 centimeters above water at high tide, with a total area of only 9 square meters, or about the size of two king-size beds. Okinotori reef, with no fresh water or arable land, cannot sustain human habitation or economic life. More than 100 Japanese members of Parliament are currently registered as “residents” of Okinotori, but in reality it’s not clear that 100 people could even gather on these reefs.
According to Unclos, the Okinotori land feature can only claim 12 nautical miles of territorial waters. Outside of that, the surrounding area must be considered international waters, not Japan’s EEZ. Japan has erected steel structures and reclaimed land from the surrounding sea, but according to Unclos these artificial islands and man-made installations don’t validate sovereignty claims or grant rights to territorial waters.
Japanese government vessels that detain Taiwan fishing boats are in violation of Article 87 of Unclos, which provides for freedom of fishing for all countries on the high seas. Such illegal actions inflict considerable damage to Japan’s image as a responsible partner in the global community. It also undermines the deep friendship between the Taiwanese and Japanese people that was most recently on display after strong earthquakes struck both countries.
My government has already lodged a formal protest with Japan regarding its illegal and excessive claims and abuse of power in the maritime area surrounding Okinotori reef. Taiwan’s legislature also issued a formal condemnation.
As a state party to Unclos since July 1996, Japan should not violate the law’s provisions. On May 1, I therefore dispatched coast-guard vessels to that area to protect our fishermen’s rights and actively safeguard freedom of fishing on the high seas for all nations.
I also appeal to the tribunal regarding Taiping Island: Its decision, to be delivered soon, should not negate Taiping’s true status as a bona fide island with the requisite rights to a continental shelf and EEZ. The international community shouldn’t turn a blind eye to Japan’s illegal and excessive maritime claims associated with Okinotori reef. No country should be allowed to violate Unclos.
Mr. Ma is the president of the Republic of China (Taiwan).
If the Philipines cannot convince UNCLOS to rule against Itu Aba, this case actually weakens the Philippines' position in the Spratlys, especially since the premise of their argument implies a tacit recognition of the fact that all of the Filipino-held islands, Thitu Island included, are rocks under UNCLOS.
And, confirmation here that Thitu Island does not have its own source of drinking water:
At the very least, I view him as a definite improvement over Aquino. Yes they will continue their multi-lateral approach, however his willingness to consider a bilateral approach if that fails (hopefully it will) is a lot better Aquino's concrete stance on the issue. He has largely the same opinions about the arbitration with China. If the arbitration is rules in Philippine's favor, China will just ignore it, and if the arbitration is ruled in China's favour, Duterte has stated that he will ignore it too.
Duterte has also mentioned a few times about shutting up about the reclamation if we help them invest and build some trains in the Philippines. It has also been reported he was been meeting with Chinese officials even before he was elected.
It's too early to tell for sure, but right now I view his presidency and future China-Philippines relations with cautious optimism.
Even though Duterte has some real big flaws compared to Aquino, he probably is way more experienced and competent at governing effectively, and is way more pragmatic and focused on results.
It felt like Aquino just got the job of President just because of his mother and father's name - rather than from any burning desire to change things or personal ambition. One could compare this to Bush Junior who always seemed out of his depth - but Bush got away with it because he could always rely on policy advice from the very best advisers to help him make decisions. In comparison, the Philippines simply doesn't have this.
Plus Aquino comes from the existing Manila establishment, whereas Duterte is not beholden to the oligarchs who have a vested interest in blocking much needed reforms.
It felt like Aquino just got the job of President just because of his mother and father's name - rather than from any burning desire to change things or personal ambition. One could compare this to Bush Junior who always seemed out of his depth - but Bush got away with it because he could always rely on policy advice from the very best advisers to help him make decisions. In comparison, the Philippines simply doesn't have this.
Plus Aquino comes from the existing Manila establishment, whereas Duterte is not beholden to the oligarchs who have a vested interest in blocking much needed reforms.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think Chinese SCS strategy for the next few months at least would be a holding pattern, so they could get a feel for the new Philippines president and see if they can work with him.
As such, I think it's safe to rule out any significant new Chinese reclaimation works, military developments or other such high profile actions in that period, as China would wish to avoid forcing Duterte into a corner where he is obliged to take a course of action he would otherwise be loathed to take.
Conversely, I would expect a gradual, but significant intensification of US and Japanese military activity in the SCS during this same period, as they seek to provoke precisely the kind of heavy-handed Chinese response that might destroy any hope of a deal being reached between the Philippines and China, to keep the Philippines 'on side' and also to prevent China from actually resolving any of the disputes in the SCS.
The latest escalation where an USN warship actually breached the 12nm territorial sea perimeter is a good example of that.
The timing of it was certainly significant if you look to see what was happening in the Philippines at the time.
As such, I think it's safe to rule out any significant new Chinese reclaimation works, military developments or other such high profile actions in that period, as China would wish to avoid forcing Duterte into a corner where he is obliged to take a course of action he would otherwise be loathed to take.
Conversely, I would expect a gradual, but significant intensification of US and Japanese military activity in the SCS during this same period, as they seek to provoke precisely the kind of heavy-handed Chinese response that might destroy any hope of a deal being reached between the Philippines and China, to keep the Philippines 'on side' and also to prevent China from actually resolving any of the disputes in the SCS.
The latest escalation where an USN warship actually breached the 12nm territorial sea perimeter is a good example of that.
The timing of it was certainly significant if you look to see what was happening in the Philippines at the time.
2016-05-18 15:57 | Xinhua | Editor: Gu Liping
Military drills China has been staging in its southeast recently are not aimed at any specific target, the Ministry of National Defense said on Wednesday, in response to media reports of a ramping-up of such training exercises.
"The drills are routine arrangements according to the annual training plan," according to a statement from the ministry's information bureau. "They are designed to test and improve troops' capabilities of dealing with security threats and accomplishing military missions."
It said the drills should not be "over-interpreted."
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
CNN just reported that two J-11s flew within 50ft of US reconnaissance aircraft.
Buzzing a P-8 again?