China's SCS Strategy Thread

[joshuatree]

The US would just ignore UNCLOS. The international system is characterized by anarchy and there is no world-police, aside of the US, to enforce international laws. And the Police will never abide to the law. Just as they ignored the UN when invading Iraq. They can and will do it again and again because they have the power for it. Nothing counts but making them taste the same medicine.

The US didnt back down during Cuba Crisis because their nukes were already pointed at Russia in Turkey and the Russians still had to move theirs to Cuba.

But If Chinese floating fortresses move off US waters and suddently declare they have them, and legitimize it with their beloved FON, the US will finally notice and maybe be ready to negotiate with China.

And if not, having nuclear armed and powered mobile fortresses off the US coast will make a nice deterrent. The PLAN should just make sure that any attacks against these fortresses will mean a nuclear meltdown and spilling against the densely populated cities of the US west coast.

Tit for tat is the only viable language in the great power game.

So you're option is really just war, noted.

 

[Ultra]

It's barely within 12 nautical miles, 13.7 miles would give us 11.90497 nautical miles.
If she was cruising at 20, it's less than 3 seconds to cover that small distance, wind and wave can drift her more than that in an hour.

This FONOP is actually a joke. It's more like a navigation game of chicken to provoke China.

If China had done a Turkey move, they would have sunk that ship at 13 nautical miles and watch as the flaming cacaus of that ship roll inside the 12 nautical miles boundary. With everyone dead in that ship and unmistakable evidence of America's violation of UNCLOS, there would be nothing America can do except beating a hasty retreat. Because they can't preach UNCLOS when they don't abide by it.

But then again it is America we are talking about here, the most hypocritical nation on earth. They will just spin it as China sunk it maliciously, and use it as a pretext for war against China.

And all these reminds me of my previous prediction. America and Japan wants to finish off China before 2020. Because when 2030-2040 rolls around, there will be absolutely nothing they can do to defeat China.

 

[solarz]

If China had done a Turkey move, they would have sunk that ship at 13 nautical miles and watch as the flaming cacaus of that ship roll inside the 12 nautical miles boundary. With everyone dead in that ship and unmistakable evidence of America's violation of UNCLOS, there would be nothing America can do except beating a hasty retreat. Because they can't preach UNCLOS when they don't abide by it.

But then again it is America we are talking about here, the most hypocritical nation on earth. They will just spin it as China sunk it maliciously, and use it as a pretext for war against China.

And all these reminds me of my previous prediction. America and Japan wants to finish off China before 2020. Because when 2030-2040 rolls around, there will be absolutely nothing they can do to defeat China.

Turkey was able to pull that stunt off because it was part of NATO, and it knew Russia couldn't directly attack it. Nevertheless it paid a high price for the attack, as it lost a considerable amount of influence in Syria and its reputation on the international stage was severely tarnished.

Neither the US nor China wants war with each other. The leadership of both nations have communication channels open to avoid any dangerous escalation. If the US was really looking for a fight, it would have sailed a lot closer.

 

[s002wjh]

If China had done a Turkey move, they would have sunk that ship at 13 nautical miles and watch as the flaming cacaus of that ship roll inside the 12 nautical miles boundary. With everyone dead in that ship and unmistakable evidence of America's violation of UNCLOS, there would be nothing America can do except beating a hasty retreat. Because they can't preach UNCLOS when they don't abide by it.

But then again it is America we are talking about here, the most hypocritical nation on earth. They will just spin it as China sunk it maliciously, and use it as a pretext for war against China.

And all these reminds me of my previous prediction. America and Japan wants to finish off China before 2020. Because when 2030-2040 rolls around, there will be absolutely nothing they can do to defeat China.

Fiery cross are not natural occur island and it's currently disputed. I doubt any nation will back China if China start firing missile toward US destroyer. Shooting the ship is absolutely the worst thing China should do. Not only can escalate to conflict in the region but even it doesn't US will support more on Vietnam Philippine Taiwan and other claim members, will push more on India too. Also economic sanctions from US and its allies will follow afterwards. Finally take down a jet vs a ship that's has hundreds of crew is different scale of magnitude

 

[Janiz]

Not only can escalate to conflict in the region

Shooting at destroyer would mean an all-out military conflict in this conditions. Ramming happened even during Cold War. There were tough situations but thanks to cool heads of people on both sides it never happened.

 

[jobjed]

Fiery cross are not natural occur island and it's currently disputed. I doubt any nation will back China if China start firing missile toward US destroyer. Shooting the ship is absolutely the worst thing China should do. Not only can escalate to conflict in the region but even it doesn't US will support more on Vietnam Philippine Taiwan and other claim members, will push more on India too. Also economic sanctions from US and its allies will follow afterwards. Finally take down a jet vs a ship that's has hundreds of crew is different scale of magnitude

Whether or not Fiery Cross grants EEZ is under dispute but it's pretty clear they are due a territorial sea since they have

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at high tide in its natural state. The UK's Rockall, simply by merit of remaining above water, grants the UK a 12 nautical mile territorial sea. Likewise, Fiery Cross is due a territorial sea simple because it naturally remained above water even before reclamation works began.

Of course, vessels can claim innocent passage in foreign territorial waters but an Arleigh-Burke destroyer is one of the world's most advanced and heavily armed warships, and this particular one was sent on a political mission to broadcast a confrontational message. Calling it "innocent" requires some Olympics-record-setting mental gymnastics to accomplish... not that I'm discounting the possibility that some people will try *ahem*Janiz*ahem*.

 

[Brumby]

Of course, vessels can claim innocent passage in foreign territorial waters but an Arleigh-Burke destroyer is one of the world's most advanced and heavily armed warships, and this particular one was sent on a political mission to broadcast a confrontational message. Calling it "innocent" requires some Olympics-record-setting mental gymnastics to accomplish... not that I'm discounting the possibility that some people will try *ahem*Janiz*ahem*.

There are specific conditions laid out in UNCLOS that defines "innocent passage". I suggest you actually try to understand the subject.

 

[antiterror13]

If China had done a Turkey move, they would have sunk that ship at 13 nautical miles and watch as the flaming cacaus of that ship roll inside the 12 nautical miles boundary. With everyone dead in that ship and unmistakable evidence of America's violation of UNCLOS, there would be nothing America can do except beating a hasty retreat. Because they can't preach UNCLOS when they don't abide by it.

But then again it is America we are talking about here, the most hypocritical nation on earth. They will just spin it as China sunk it maliciously, and use it as a pretext for war against China.

And all these reminds me of my previous prediction. America and Japan wants to finish off China before 2020. Because when 2030-2040 rolls around, there will be absolutely nothing they can do to defeat China.

Well, I don't think the US and let alone Japan could "finish off" China without WW3 and ending the world ...... China is too strong even 10 years ago to "finish off"

 

[Jura The idiot]

according to DefenseNews China Puts Guam Within Missile Range

Guam is within China’s military strike reach with new missiles and bomber aircraft capabilities that demonstrate China’s continued efforts to neutralize America’s ability to come to the aid of its allies and friends in the region, according to a May 10 report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC).

The report, “

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,” states that, though a US territory, neutralizing Guam makes perfect sense from a Chinese military perspective. The island is home to two U.S. military facilities — Apra Naval Base and Andersen Air Force Base — with 6,000 personnel. Guam supports rotations of B-1, B-2 and B-52 bomber aircraft, as well as F-15, F-16, and F-22 fighter aircraft. The storage facilities are ample with 66 million gallons of aviation fuel and 100,000 bombs.

In a contingency in which Beijing sought to disrupt a US intervention and was able to fire sufficient numbers of intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM), land-attack cruise missiles (LACM), anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) and anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM), the bases and assets located on Guam would be held at risk, according to the report's author, Jordan Wilson, USCC policy analyst on security and foreign affairs.

“Besides potentially depriving the United States of specific strike assets, such attacks could disrupt its region-wide response effort — closing runways, reducing aerial and naval basing capacity, complicating the operating environment for U.S. ships, and shutting down key logistics and repair infrastructure,” he wrote.

Wilson points to the new DF-26 IRBM paraded for the first time during the September 2015 military parade in Beijing. The missile is unique in that it has an ASBM capability, which allows it to strike aircraft carriers in the area around Guam.

The missile, dubbed the “Guam Killer” or “Guam Express,” has a range of 3,000–4,000 kilometers with nuclear, conventional and anti-ship variants. The missile features a new “modular design” that allows for interchangeability: The launch vehicle can be fitted with “two types of nuclear warhead and several types of conventional warhead which use different destructive mechanisms to attack specific targets,” Wilson wrote.

The other ASBM of concern is the DF-21D, dubbed the “carrier killer.” But its range is only 1,500 kilometers, which is too short a distance to threaten Guam. However, the DF-21D is armed with a maneuverable warhead, “providing China with the ability to hold at risk U.S. Navy aircraft carriers operating east of Taiwan from sites on the Chinese mainland,” he wrote.

The introduction of the DF-21D in 2010 forced U.S. naval ships to operate from greater distances in a Taiwan scenario, and now with the DF-26, Guam is no longer a safe haven for U.S. fighter and bomber aircraft.

Cruise missiles also play an important part in China’s efforts to hold Guam at risk, Wilson wrote.

The first is air-launched LACMs, such as the new 1,500 kilometer range CJ-20 LACM, which can perform precision strikes launched from upgraded variants of the H-6K medium-range bomber. The H-6K combat radius is 3,500 kilometers and can carry six CJ-20 LACMs. There are currently 36 H-6K bombers deployed as of 2015. Wilson wrote that in November 2015, during a training mission, four H-6K bombers broke off from four others west of Okinawa and flew 1,000 kilometers past the first island chain in a likely “simulated attack on Guam.”

The second is the new air-launched, supersonic YJ-12 ASCM, with a 215 nautical mile range, also capable of being launched from the H-6K bomber. The YJ-12 is capable of evasive maneuvers that pose “immense challenges for shipboard defenses.” With the H-6K, the missile can reach targets around Guam, and Wilson quotes Robert Haddick, an independent contractor at US Special Operations Command, who called it in 2014 “the most dangerous antiship missile China has produced thus far.”

The third is an unidentified sea-launched LACM being developed for forthcoming Type 095 nuclear-powered attack submarines and the new Luyang-III guided-missile destroyers that will bring Guam within reach.

The last is the new YJ-18 ASCM being deployed on the Luyang III. It's also likely to be deployed on the Song, Yuan, and Shang-class submarines, as well as Type 095 submarines and Type 055 guided-missile destroyers.

The YJ-18 is certainly capable of supersonic speeds during the final phase, which would reduce the time shipborne defenses have to react to an incoming threat,” Wilson wrote.

Wilson outlined several recommendations:

• Harden facilities on Guam to disincentive a first strike (though this approach is expensive and China could counter with a further buildup of its missile arsenal).
• Disperse US regional military facilities throughout Asia, forcing China to direct missile strikes at more targets.
• Invest in new missile defense capabilities such as the next-generation missile defense initiatives that include directed energy and rail gun technologies. While Guam is currently protected by Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3), they are there to protect Guam from less sophisticated North Korean missile systems, not Chinese missiles equipped with maneuverable warheads and supersonic, final-stage strikes designed to defeat THAAD and PAC-3.
• Revisit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty since China is not a signatory and Russia is said to be in violation of the agreement. The US is prevented by the INF Treaty from developing low-cost, land-based, theater-range conventional missiles or “altering it to allow ground-based theater-range deployments only in Asia; this proposed revision theoretical would allow the United States to deploy its own inexpensive ground-based conventional missiles, or could incentivize China to join a wider INF Treaty and reduce its missile deployments,” Wilson wrote.

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[SamuraiBlue]

China reclaims 3,200 acres in South China Sea as the country attempts to increase its control over the maritime region

• China's focus has shifted to weaponize the Spratly and Paracels islands
• The hope is to enhance their long term presence in the South China Sea
• A Pentagon report states China will not gain any new territorial rights
• China has also tried to assert sovereignty over the East China Sea

China will significantly enhance their long-term presence in the South China Sea after reclaiming 3,200 acres of land in the south eastern region.

The country's focus has shifted to developing and weaponzing man-made islands so it will have greater control over the maritime region without resorting to armed conflict.

According to a Pentagon report this accelerated building effort will not give China any new territorial rights and only represents China's reclamation in the Spratly Islands..... to read more

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