China's SCS Strategy Thread

[shen]

Have you ever heard of the saying "砂上の楼閣(A castle built upon a pile of sand)"?
That is exactly what would happen if you try reclaiming land with only sand.

You talked about sand barges, so I replied about sand. Of course the sea wall would be built with concrete. If you look at pictures on the reclamation, they've actually built cement factories on the island instead of shipping bags of cement from mainland. These been coral island, coral is of course calcium carbonate. So less raw materials for the concrete need to be shipped long distance.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

You talked about sand barges, so I replied about sand. Of course the sea wall would be built with concrete. If you look at pictures on the reclamation, they've actually built cement factories on the island instead of shipping bags of cement from mainland. These been coral island, coral is of course calcium carbonate. So less raw materials for the concrete need to be shipped long distance.

I don't see any chemical factories around the reclamation points, do you?
You need to mix cement with water on-site since it hardens within 2~3 hours after mixture. You can't just mix corral with cement and expect it to work either.
All the required items would need to be transported from the mainland INCLUDING some sand since the salt within the dredged sand will corrode any steel reinforcements within the concrete girders. This is reclamation project 101.

 

[shen]

I don't see any chemical factories around the reclamation points, do you?
You need to mix cement with water on-site since it hardens within 2~3 hours after mixture. You can't just mix corral with cement and expect it to work either.
All the required items would need to be transported from the mainland INCLUDING some sand since the salt within the dredged sand will corrode any steel reinforcements within the concrete girders. This is reclamation project 101.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Making cement from coral in 1962. Coral supplies calcium carbonate, the largest component of cement. Sand and aggregate dredged onsite provided the landfill. Of course some component would need to shipped in, but the most bulky materials can be found onsite. China is not short on shipping capacity either.

I never meant the civilian reclamation to be a perfect example of course, just an example of what's possible in China. Military projects will get even more resources.

 

[Jeff Head]

Let's look the time schedule for a civilian reclamation island building project in China.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Contract awarded in Nov 18 2011. Construction commenced in Nov 30 2011. That 12 days from the award of contract to commencement of reclamation.The island is 130 hectares or 1.3 sq km. Fiery Cross reclamation is 0.96 sq. km.

I don't think people realize the infrastructure building capability and the speed of work in China. What may take decades to do in the US just doesn't take that long in China.

Shen, you really need to quit trying to make points that you feel somehow disprove what people who work in this industry are saying.

The time between awarding a contract and starting work has nothing to do with the planning that went into getting the project to that point, and arranging everything that needed to be arranged to start the work. That's the absolute, very tail end of the process.

From my perspective, you clearly do not realize what goes into these projects and are looking for things that will bolster your arguments...but doing so on a basis that is not founded on experience or any real knowledge of the these types of projects, or the overall industry..

As I have said in the past, good for China in making this happen...but in terms of award of contract and start of construction, I can point to the same situation right here in the US on numerous large reclamation projects...even thought the projects were years in the making and getting prepared for it.

Anyhow, no need to beat this horse any more. It is what it is.

Let it rest now. There will be no more meaningless arguments about this issue.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THE MODERATION.

 

[Blackstone]

Not surprisingly, little to no progress was made in a SCS binding code of conduct between China and ASEAN.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Senior officials from China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met in Tianjin, China to discuss the implementation of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and to advance progress toward a more binding Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. The meeting comes as tensions between ASEAN claimants, including the Philippines and Vietnam, and China remain high in the South China Sea, where China has spent the last 18 months carrying out an unprecedented level of artificial island-building and construction on features it occupies in the Spratly Islands. China agreed to begin discussing the Code of Conduct with ASEAN in 2013.


The Tianjin meetings, formally the Ninth Senior Officials’ Meeting on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, had little to offer in the way of deliverables. Leaders did walk away with a new mechanism that could help prevent military escalation in the South China Sea: they agreed to implement a foreign ministers’ hotline specifically to handle any emergencies in the South China Sea. According to Reuters,

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, the mechanism will be formally announced in a joint statement after next week’s meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers.

ASEAN diplomats had varying assessments of the Tianjin talks. Malaysian Foreign Minister

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

included “important progress with regard to the CoC.” “While we proceed with the implementation of the DoC and work expeditiously towards the establishment of the CoC, recent developments have raised tension and eroded trust and confidence among parties,” he added. Thai Deputy Foreign Minister Noppadon Theppitak noted that the states agreed to “maintain stability” in the South China Sea by “implementing several points achieved as a result of this meeting.” His comments likely refer to the working plan for the implementation of the Declaration on Conduct for next year.

For China,

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

, this meeting was an important forum to build confidence with ASEAN states. Mistrust of China has grown in recent months with regard to its island-building in the Spratlys. Additionally, with the Philippines’ ongoing arbitration against China at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, the South China Sea issue has grown increasingly controversial within ASEAN, where there are multiple states who want to de-emphasize the South China Sea issue to maintain their positive rapports with China. It’s notable that in a press conference ahead of the Tianjin talks, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang lays out the agenda as follows:

Senior diplomats from ASEAN countries will join Vice Chinese Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin at the meeting to discuss how to fully and effectively implement the DOC, press ahead with pragmatic maritime cooperation and advance the consultation on a code of conduct in the South China Sea (COC) under the framework of implementing the DOC.

For China, discussions for a Code of Conduct are a low priority. China recognizes the internal divisions within ASEAN over the issue: indeed, just four of ASEAN’s ten members are claimants in the South China Sea. For Beijing, meetings like the one in Tianjin are an important way to build trust and demonstrate that it continues to hold a stake – however small – in the continued consultations toward a Code of Conduct. Indeed, most

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

regarding this meeting emphasized how China and ASEAN had vowed to maintain peace in the South China Sea and how the consultations were “friendly and candid.”

Even after this meeting, it seems we are no closer to seeing even a new draft of the Code of Conduct for what could still be years. Before China acquiesced to the process in 2013,

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

. When China joined the talks, whatever preliminary progress had been attained with the draft had to be revised, now with China’s input. This meant that provisions like the complete banning of military exercises in the South China Sea had to be reevaluated.

For Beijing, joining the Code of Conduct consultation process has proven strategically advantageous. For example, over the course of the last 8 ministerial meetings on the Declaration of Conduct and Code of Conduct, China has continued to assert its sovereignty over disputed waters with impunity. Its participation in the talks has prevented any real progress, allowing Beijing to continue its activities in the contested Paracel and Spratly Islands without contest from any mutually agreed-upon framework (except the non-binding 2002 declaration).

Stalling on the Code of Conduct, thus, grants Beijing time to seal in its advantages in the South China Sea, with new man-made islands and facilities that can easily be converted or operationalized for military use. Once China is satisfied with its position in the South China, we may begin to see real progress on the Code of Conduct. Unfortunately, that may be years from now.

 

[JayBird]

Might as well say little to no progress was made in a SCS binding code of conduct between China, Philippines and Vietnam. And not lump all the ASEAN together like they are all one voice.

The tensions are mainly between the Philippines and China right now. Even Vietnam is stay some what low key compare to Philippines, who's going all out with President Aquino III at the helm trying to make the spratly islands issue as controversial as possible in order to put pressure and public opinions against China. And with lots of helps from certain media organizations.

 

[delft]

In reaction to the discussion in the "other" scs-strategy page:
While for many years we just saw small Chinese garrisons on those posts on reefs and islands being nice to passing fishermen there must have been engineers investigating the strength of reefs, the strength of water flows and waves under all circumstances, the materials locally available &c., &c. and transmitting all information to the "Department of Island Design" ( who of you remember the designer of the Norwegian coastline in "The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy"? ). The department will design an island and ask for additional information. This will have been going on for a dozen years or more and with input from PLAN and PLAAF with respect to the possibilities of harbours and airfields. The Department will also have had an eye on the availability of all kinds of necessary and useful equipment and made sure that reasonable reserves were available thus also improving the speed of wet civil engineering in Chinese ports. When the threat/crisis/opportunity occurred ( Hillary in 2010? ) the preparations were ready and choices were made, planning started to execute this impressive project. This will improve the negotiating position of China very much and any complaint that China acted disproportionally is absurd.

 

[Yvrch]

In reaction to the discussion in the "other" scs-strategy page:
While for many years we just saw small Chinese garrisons on those posts on reefs and islands being nice to passing fishermen there must have been engineers investigating the strength of reefs, the strength of water flows and waves under all circumstances, the materials locally available &c., &c. and transmitting all information to the "Department of Island Design" ( who of you remember the designer of the Norwegian coastline in "The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy"? ). The department will design an island and ask for additional information. This will have been going on for a dozen years or more and with input from PLAN and PLAAF with respect to the possibilities of harbours and airfields. The Department will also have had an eye on the availability of all kinds of necessary and useful equipment and made sure that reasonable reserves were available thus also improving the speed of wet civil engineering in Chinese ports. When the threat/crisis/opportunity occurred ( Hillary in 2010? ) the preparations were ready and choices were made, planning started to execute this impressive project. This will improve the negotiating position of China very much and any complaint that China acted disproportionally is absurd.

Hear, hear!
The opposing line of thought seems to be China pre planned the reclamation work with a strategic intent while conducting bi lateral negotiations. China's version of reclamation work soon after the negotiations either stopped or broken down or somewhat suspended is exponentially bigger compared to others. So the next logical question is, so what? What would be the conclusion or judgement, after all these tests done?
And then there was a little dabble with IR. I have no doubt there are a lot of folks here with advanced knowledge on the subject and even practical experience. At any rate, rule of law is one of the leading contenders but not the supreme one if you catch my drift. That confuses me as to what is the level and depth of insight we are looking at and a priori position on law vis a vis other strands of IR.
I hope my fellow forumite Delft wouldn't take an exception to my insertion here.

 

[Equation]

I don't see any chemical factories around the reclamation points, do you?

What about a mobile one like a ship?

 

[SamuraiBlue]

What about a mobile one like a ship?

I don't believe that can either crush corral into powder or heat it to treat it into required quality.
Making concrete isn't rocket science but it is labor intensive and requires a lot of fuel to operate.