Equation
Lieutenant General
China got plenty of ships to do that, plus it's not like the SCS are extremely far away from the mainland. It's intensive and expansive yes, but if you got the money and the skills and know how, so be it.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
China got plenty of ships to do that, plus it's not like the SCS are extremely far away from the mainland. It's intensive and expansive yes, but if you got the money and the skills and know how, so be it.
SamuraiBlue
Captain
So basically you accept Jeff's position that it had been planned well ahead since it requires a large logistics planning to get things done.
Equation
Lieutenant General
You mean like building anything in life? So what.
PRC and ROC had planned to develop the Spratley Islands since the end of WWII and it was not until recently that they can afford to do so,
I believe why suddenly China started to fasten all this reclamation project is because of US containment policy of China and many of the alliances US has been building such as:
- March 2006 - alliance building of US - Japan - Australia
- March 2007 - alliance building of Japan - Australia
- May 2007 - alliance building of US - Japan - Australia - India
- December 2011 - alliance building of US - Japan - India
China may have planned to do the reclamation years ago when Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia already did it. But I think the timing to do it is now. Japan and US already increasingly pushing trying to contain China. China knows it can not push for war right now because I think Japan will have the last laugh if China fights against US. I think US realize that too, that's why US is quite in dilemma right now in term what to do.
Since China is rising, the nationalism in Japan has been increasing, look at ascending of prime minister Koizumi and Abe. And many things that Japan has done in trying to provoke China, such as visiting Yasukuni shrine, changing history textbook, changing remorse tone, nationalizing Diaoyu/Senkaku Island, etc.
So in term of strategy, I think it is the correct thing for China to do and it is for China's security too. If there is war, South China Sea base will help push the war far from mainland China and China has the way out. Not forgetting that all the US military base in South Korea and Japan which is very near mainland China.
- March 2006 - alliance building of US - Japan - Australia
- March 2007 - alliance building of Japan - Australia
- May 2007 - alliance building of US - Japan - Australia - India
- December 2011 - alliance building of US - Japan - India
China may have planned to do the reclamation years ago when Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia already did it. But I think the timing to do it is now. Japan and US already increasingly pushing trying to contain China. China knows it can not push for war right now because I think Japan will have the last laugh if China fights against US. I think US realize that too, that's why US is quite in dilemma right now in term what to do.
Since China is rising, the nationalism in Japan has been increasing, look at ascending of prime minister Koizumi and Abe. And many things that Japan has done in trying to provoke China, such as visiting Yasukuni shrine, changing history textbook, changing remorse tone, nationalizing Diaoyu/Senkaku Island, etc.
So in term of strategy, I think it is the correct thing for China to do and it is for China's security too. If there is war, South China Sea base will help push the war far from mainland China and China has the way out. Not forgetting that all the US military base in South Korea and Japan which is very near mainland China.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think that is stretching things a little.
The Diaoyu islands and the SCS island disputes are two separate issues, and China treats them as such.
The Diaoyu dispute was originally put on hold by mutual agreement between China and Japan, whereby both sides acknowledged the dispute, and agreed not to do anything to change the status quo, so as to allow the two countries to park the issue and not have that hanging over everything when they try to build and improve diplomatic and economic ties.
That worked until the Japanese government nationalised the islands, which is a massive change in the status quo.
When China cried fowl, the west smugly turned the mutual agreement, and China's restraint against China by stressing the importance of actual control.
Since then, China has systematically flew and sailed close to the islands to actively dispute Japanese control of those islands.
The nature of the game is different in the SCS in that everyone has got manned outposts out there, so its a game of presence and control. In the past, China has struggled because of the geographical distances involved.
It has greatly addressed this in recent years with its investment in large displacement, long endurance coast guard vessels, but that still does not change geography, so I think that is where the islands comes it.
Those islands now give China real estate to build significant bases right at the heart of the region, and allow China to cut reaction times (and deployment costs) drastically.
If pushed, I would say that the primary causes for China to give the go ahead are America's pivot to Asia, and the violent reaction of Vietnam when China temporarily placed a test drilling platform in the SCS (both on land and at sea).
The western media did all they could to make China look like the bad guy in that encounter, but it was Vietnam who was by far the more aggressive and assertive, mobilizing far more ships to harass the Chinese operation (even though Vietnam already has a large number of production rigs deployed in the same region extracting resources).
The violent anti-Chinese riots that took place inside Vietnam would have further concerned China as to the high degree of animosity displayed.
The clear anti-China bias of the western media and governments in those encounters would also have played a major part.
I think the chief reasons for China to greenlight the building of the islands are:
1) To provide bases so China would not be placed at such a distinct numerical disadvantage again in future stand-offs
2) To make China's holdings in the regions far more defensible.
I think point 1 is pretty self evident, so I will focus instead on point 2.
As things were, China had minimal garrisons on the features it held, that could be quickly and easily taken by force by a nation such as Vietnam.
The anti-China bias in the west is such that there is a fair to good chance the likes of the US would step in to "preserve peace" in name if Vietnam made such a move, but the real aim is to block any Chinese counter attacks, thereby effectively protecting Vietnam's territorial grabs by stopping China from retaking those features by force, and instance insist that everyone sit down to talks that everyone knows will lead nowhere.
To counter that potential threat, China is making its holdings into both strongholds, and also moving in civilians, so that if anyone tries to take those islands by force, the defenders would be able to hold out long enough for PLAN reinforcements to arrive, so its a case of the PLAN going in to assist Chinese forces being attacked in an active engagement, rather than it being a counterattack after the initial fighting has ended.
The civilians are there so that even if someone manages to achieve an improbably stunning quick invasion, China would still be able to cite the Falklands precedent of protecting and liberating its citizens to launch a counter attack to retake the islands.
The Diaoyu islands and the SCS island disputes are two separate issues, and China treats them as such.
The Diaoyu dispute was originally put on hold by mutual agreement between China and Japan, whereby both sides acknowledged the dispute, and agreed not to do anything to change the status quo, so as to allow the two countries to park the issue and not have that hanging over everything when they try to build and improve diplomatic and economic ties.
That worked until the Japanese government nationalised the islands, which is a massive change in the status quo.
When China cried fowl, the west smugly turned the mutual agreement, and China's restraint against China by stressing the importance of actual control.
Since then, China has systematically flew and sailed close to the islands to actively dispute Japanese control of those islands.
The nature of the game is different in the SCS in that everyone has got manned outposts out there, so its a game of presence and control. In the past, China has struggled because of the geographical distances involved.
It has greatly addressed this in recent years with its investment in large displacement, long endurance coast guard vessels, but that still does not change geography, so I think that is where the islands comes it.
Those islands now give China real estate to build significant bases right at the heart of the region, and allow China to cut reaction times (and deployment costs) drastically.
If pushed, I would say that the primary causes for China to give the go ahead are America's pivot to Asia, and the violent reaction of Vietnam when China temporarily placed a test drilling platform in the SCS (both on land and at sea).
The western media did all they could to make China look like the bad guy in that encounter, but it was Vietnam who was by far the more aggressive and assertive, mobilizing far more ships to harass the Chinese operation (even though Vietnam already has a large number of production rigs deployed in the same region extracting resources).
The violent anti-Chinese riots that took place inside Vietnam would have further concerned China as to the high degree of animosity displayed.
The clear anti-China bias of the western media and governments in those encounters would also have played a major part.
I think the chief reasons for China to greenlight the building of the islands are:
1) To provide bases so China would not be placed at such a distinct numerical disadvantage again in future stand-offs
2) To make China's holdings in the regions far more defensible.
I think point 1 is pretty self evident, so I will focus instead on point 2.
As things were, China had minimal garrisons on the features it held, that could be quickly and easily taken by force by a nation such as Vietnam.
The anti-China bias in the west is such that there is a fair to good chance the likes of the US would step in to "preserve peace" in name if Vietnam made such a move, but the real aim is to block any Chinese counter attacks, thereby effectively protecting Vietnam's territorial grabs by stopping China from retaking those features by force, and instance insist that everyone sit down to talks that everyone knows will lead nowhere.
To counter that potential threat, China is making its holdings into both strongholds, and also moving in civilians, so that if anyone tries to take those islands by force, the defenders would be able to hold out long enough for PLAN reinforcements to arrive, so its a case of the PLAN going in to assist Chinese forces being attacked in an active engagement, rather than it being a counterattack after the initial fighting has ended.
The civilians are there so that even if someone manages to achieve an improbably stunning quick invasion, China would still be able to cite the Falklands precedent of protecting and liberating its citizens to launch a counter attack to retake the islands.
Blackstone
Brigadier
It's true having those mixed use bases in SCS gives China manyfold benefits. Her material capabilities in SCS would increase dramatically, especially surveillance over this vast area, which would be very critical for tactical and operation level decision makings. The impact on status quo is it has been de facto changed, which the reigning hegemon cannot deter or stop without resorting to force, or through consultation/compensation to balance out the power equation in SCS. It is truely a revolutionary step in China's perspectives.
I believe Vietnam would have to think twice, or maybe even several times, before using force against China in SCS, especially an attack against Chinese holdings. China's reaction would likely be "disproportionate", both in SCS and along the land border.
I believe that three of the large PRC reclamation projects in the South China sea are going to get airfields. Those being Subi, Mischief, and Fiery Cross.
They all form a triangle in the SCS and would be mutually supportive and a very strong position for the PRC.
Subi Reef reclamation and construction:
Mischeif Reef reclamation and construction:
Fiery Cross reclamation and construction:
PRC Reclamation projects in the South China Sea:
See my flickr album:
Let's keep the discussion to the strategy and actual photos and reports of what we know is going on.
SD is not the place for discussing who thinks which press is most biased either way.
It's a two edged sword and depending on which side of the ideology/nationality/bias divide each member themselves are on, it will usually result in nothing productive and endless back and forth, arguments, and ultimately warnings, etc., etc.
Thanks.
DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION
SD is not the place for discussing who thinks which press is most biased either way.
It's a two edged sword and depending on which side of the ideology/nationality/bias divide each member themselves are on, it will usually result in nothing productive and endless back and forth, arguments, and ultimately warnings, etc., etc.
Thanks.
DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION