China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Jeff Head]

There has been an ongoing discussion ons everal of these pages as to wheher the PRC accomplished the overall reclamation projects in the SCS as a result of reaction to Vietnam and the Philippines, or whether it was apart of a long term plan. I posted a rather long statement of my own on this on the pother nation's strategy page and will repeat it here:

-------------------- My Thoughts ------------------------

For China to accomplish in the last three years what it has done in these several reclamation efforts is indicative of very extensive and meticulous planning. And they are showing themselves to be extremely good at it.

In strict terms of massive construction projects like this...my hat is off to them...they have put together very complex and massive efforts and done so according to an aggressive schedule.

Pulling together the numerous disciplines required and the personnel to accomplish it, according to a plan that would have had extensive planning and engineering documentation. we are talking about tens of thousands of documents and drawing, the engineering drawings probably based on CAD/CAE models. Pulling together the equipment necessary and having it scheduled to be available when needed according to this plan, was no small feat, and having it show up and accomplish what it has accomplished to their schedule also speaks to the extensive nature of the planning. These things don't "just happen."

Continuing, planning for the aggregate material by the tens of millions of tons...all of the appropriate and proper material for the various phases of the work... to find/locate, and then either dredge at the islands (for a lot of it) or transport to the islands...is simply impressive to be done in the time frames they have accomplished it...and simultaneously for these various projects.

As I say, years of planning went into such projects to make all of that possible...and they are continuing now with the massive infrastructure building on the islands themselves which all have obviously been a part of the plan.

I have been a part of such plans. For the first 25 years of my career, they were massive military projects, with a five year stint in the Nuclear Power industry on nuclear power projjects. Then for the last 12 years with the US Government on Reclamation projects. I say this again with emphasis...they did not...I repeat THEY DID NOT...see an instance of Filippino law suit filings...or a Vietnam action in 2011 or 2012 and then just decide to do this. I cna say this with 100% confidence. They started doing the work themselves in 2012...and they probably started putting the specific engineering plans together back in 2009 or so...and they decision to move ahead with the detail planning was probably based on an overall strategic plan that they developed years before that.

Remember...on each of these reefs and islands, the PRC moved forward with very simple structures years and years ago...and then through the last half of the 90s and first five years of the 2000s they improved those structures methodically.

Myself and others on this board and other boards have been following those developments for the last 10 years specifically on SD, and I personally was following them for ten years before that.

What you are seeing in the SCS from China's perspective is a 20 year plan coming together.

It is my contention that they planned to get to this type of a stage early of development early on...probably starting at least 15-20 years ago. Then, six years ago (or so), they began putting together specific plans for these large projects we are seeing now...but the decision to do that itself was very, very likely a part of a lager plan. Then approximately three years ago they began actually doing the work against those specific plans.

That's how these projects work. You do not knee jerk...or on a whim, decide in 2012 to throw together massive programs like this. That would be an initiation for disaster, waste and failure. Everything I have observed of the PRC over the last 25 years, when it comes to these type of programs...be they civil or military...speaks to very strong and long term planning. They are proving it with this project again.

And that is to China's credit...whether you agree with what they are actually doing or not...you have to respect what they have accomplished and how they have accomplished it.

If you have never been involved in such programs before...it may look like they decided to say, "hey, look what Vietnam did last year," or, "hey look at what the Filippinos are doing with this law suite...let's show them what we can really do!"

I assure you all...that is not at all what went down. That is far too shallow and reactionary for what the PRC wants to accomplish long term in the SCS.

What they have actually done is work to a plan that has been meticulously planned for years, and then very professionally carried out over the last three. They know what they want to accomplish and they are going about doing so according to their plans.

They have done the same thing with any number of other projects...from highway infrastructure...to the Three Gorges Dam...to many military projects, including their aircraft carrier plans.

Have they had failures? Of course! Everyone does.

Have they had set backs? Yes, of course, everyone has those too.

Have they had surprises? Yes, that too...like everyone else.

But these recent SCS reclamation projects, I can tell you from personally experiences...have been long in the making and their accomplishment in these time frames are very impressive on the world stage by any measure. Again, whether you like what they are doing or not...you must respect what they have done and how they have gone about it.

 

[SampanViking]

In absolute agreement with you on this one Jeff

There is a moot argument as to whether prevailing relations in the region will have put back or brought forward the schedule for the projects, but no doubt that the basic assessments and surveys will have been carried out many years ago and probably re-examined in situ during the intervening years.

The key point remains that this is a carefully planned programme, prepared to the point of readiness over many years.

The quality and capability of execution is another story in its own right, as you so rightly mention. Those with any doubts on the subject should just remember this the next time you need to arrange a Builder, a Plumber, an Electrician and a Plasterer to do a job for you according to a strict dates, timescale and budget.

It does illustrate that the PRC takes its own freedom of navigation through the SCS's very seriously indeed. It also provides a very useful context to the offer from the Maldives to acquire territory, but only if at least 70% of it is reclaimed land. I know that China has quashed any story of immediate interest, but it has the potential to be a hardy perennial and likely to resurface at some point in the future.

 

[shen]

cross posting from Other Nations SCS thread.

I think most people can agree that the trigger or proximate cause for China's large scale reclamation is the Filipinos court filing. The long term or underlying cause is the American "pivot" to Asia.

That doesn't mean the reclamation didn't take many years of planning. I stated in my earlier post that we don't have any evidence to say one way or the other, and that's true. But we shouldn't confuse planning with causation.

For example, all nations prepare war plans during peace time that can be put into effect if and when war start. But that's doesn't mean war plans are the cause of wars. Let's look at a historic example. In the years between WWI and WWII, the United States prepared a series of color coded warplanes to cover every possible war scenarios.

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The most famous of these plans was War Plan Orange vs Japan. Now if war started between the US and Japan during those years and War Plan Orange went into effect, is it correct to say that the cause of the war was War Plan Orange? Of course not! The trigger or proximate cause of war in that case would probably be a Japanese attack on Philippines and the underlying cause would be the competing interests of the US and Japan in Asia. Plans don't cause war and plans don't cause reclamation either.

Back to the present day reclamation case. Did China start planning for possible reclamation many years in advance, very possible. In one of the video documentary posted in the China SCS base thread, it was discussed that years ago, survey work carried out on Mischief Reef showed that it had a solid rock base and is suitable for development into a major base. Proposal to turn Mischief Reef into a major base was forward but rejected by the Chinese government at that time. So caused the government to change its mind years later? Based on facts, the Filipino escalation in March 2014 was the final straw and caused the Chinese government to put the previously rejected reclamation plan into action. And I propose the long term cause for the reclamation is the increased military threat to China from the American "pivot" to Asia.

 

[Jeff Head]

The key point remains that this is a carefully planned programme, prepared to the point of readiness over many years.

Amen to that Sampan. Anyone who opines different is simply unware of how such projects come into being and must be planned.

The quality and capability of execution is another story in its own right, as you so rightly mention.

Yes it is.

I would not be surprised to see other parties, interested in similar projects in the future, begin contacting the PRC about the possibility of contracting the particular firms or agencies doing this to see if they cannot do similar projects elsewhere.

 

[vesicles]

I am in agreement with Jeff and Sampan. This kind of MASSIVE projects takes decades of planning. It just so happens that the last steps of the projects are coinciding with what the Vietnamese and Filipinos are doing.

Another reason for my belief that other SCS parties have little to do with what China is doing now is that China has always been ambitious. Even in its dark days during all the political turmoil in the 50's, 60's and 70's, China never lost its sight on the ultimate goal, becoming a global power. It is highly highly unlikely that a little friction with some of its small neighbors would completely change China's strategic plans, or even force China to move up the timetable. In other words, China would never start the building frenzy if the planning was not ready, no matter how many law suits the Philippine govn't has filed. The same would also be true in the case of Vietnamese modifying some of their islands.

We actually have seen China does things in this meticulous way in many many time in the past. In fact, one thing that the CCP does very well is not to budge to foreign pressure. One good example would be the huge conflict over its exchange rates. At the time, China was under huge political and economic pressure to modify its exchange rates. They were practically yelled at and threatened at every turn. Many of the threats, such as jacking up the tariff for Chinese imported goods in the US and many other countries and even revoking its WTO membership, would have serious consequence for its economy and national interests. Many law suits, which bore concrete damages to China's economy, had indeed been filed. Yet, China did not budge a bit. It only began to change exchange rates when it felt it was ready. The kind of political pressure applied by what the Philippines and Vietnam have been doing is so minuscule compared to what they experienced with WTO and the US. Let's face it, the law suits by the Philippines cannot do anything to China. And even the US cannot do anything concrete in the SCS that would actually affect China's plans. China knows this. it knows fully well that no one can do anything to compete with them in the SCS, with or without the island-building. So China is cool as a cucumber now in the SCS. There is no need, what-so-ever, for China to change its plans, move up the timetable, or do anything to rush. So again, it is highly unlikely actions by the Philippines and Vietnam had anything to do with what China is doing.

If anyone has access to China's blueprint (developed in the early 1990's) for the SCS, it most likely says "island building time: 2012-2016/7".

As to the argument that China is doing the island building to counter Philippines' position in their law suits, that is wrong, IMHO. China's position has always been that they don't believe there is a need for a law suit. That is why they refuse to participate in the consultation with the UN. Thus, there is nothing to counter. There is absolutely no need for China to do anything since China's official position is that there is no need for any law suit.

 

[Blackstone]

Amen to that Sampan. Anyone who opines different is simply unware of how such projects come into being and must be planned.

Yes it is.

I would not be surprised to see other parties, interested in similar projects in the future, begin contacting the PRC about the possibility of contracting the particular firms or agencies doing this to see if they cannot do similar projects elsewhere.

What you failed to consider is the possibility China might not have felt the necessity to expand its holdings until other claimants escalated events. Just because China planned for contingencies, doesn't mean it felt the need to do the full Monty. Had there not been escalations from Philippines and Vietnam, China might have scaled back its efforts.

 

[Jeff Head]

What you failed to consider is the possibility China might not have felt the necessity to expand its holdings until other claimants escalated events. Just because China planned for contingencies, doesn't mean it felt the need to do the full Monty. Had there not been escalations from Philippines and Vietnam, China might have scaled back its efforts.

I do not think so. I do not think this effort was a "contingency plan," at all. I think this is what the PRC was going to do all along.

It was the plan.

The types of planning that go into these things is massive...with schedules very tight for the equipment, the personnel and the resources.

Having been involved in such projects it is not that I did not consider what the other might or might not do, it is just that something like that is not something you can say..."Oh the Filipinos are doing a law suit...kick things into gear now!"

No, having the plan in place is one thing...but executing against the plan and scheduling all that has to be scheduled to put it in place is another. That does not happen overnight or in a month or two. That itself is gong to be something that takes a year or two to work out on a project of this magnitude.

Anyway, I personally believe that the PRC was working on a plan that had been put in place over years...and then probably after the decision to execute was given, took a year or two from to execute to the time when they actually started moving dirt and dredging.

I personally believe that these other relatively small events (like the Philippines and Vietnam's efforts) were secondary and perhaps even coincident to all of that. The main plan was the PRC doing a 15-20 years long consolidation of their holdings in the SCS...and these last major programs were in the works and going to happen in any case.

 

[Blitzo]

As to the argument that China is doing the island building to counter Philippines' position in their law suits, that is wrong, IMHO. China's position has always been that they don't believe there is a need for a law suit. That is why they refuse to participate in the consultation with the UN. Thus, there is nothing to counter. There is absolutely no need for China to do anything since China's official position is that there is no need for any law suit.

I don't think the argument is that china is reclaiming to counter the law suit per se, but rather reclaiming the islands as a general response to the overall internationalizing of the dispute as well as the US pivot to the Pacific, of which the lawsuit is only a symptom of.

 

[no_name]

This may have been like the 5 year plan, to be completed during Xi's watch, maybe with some flexibility in the exact timing at which it will start. It could already be planned by previous administrations and refined as necessary closer to the implementation phase. I believe it is set in motion by comparing to internal metric rather than responding external events. This may not have been done during Hu's administration even if all preparation is ready, but it is dependent on China's policy and it has changed from Hu to Xi's administration and that policy change is probably also planned beforehand to correspond to changes in China's influence on the rest of the world.

 

[shen]

Let's look the time schedule for a civilian reclamation island building project in China.

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Contract awarded in Nov 18 2011. Construction commenced in Nov 30 2011. That 12 days from the award of contract to commencement of reclamation.The island is 130 hectares or 1.3 sq km. Fiery Cross reclamation is 0.96 sq. km.

You can check the progress of the civilian reclamation on google map.

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The company working on this project is the same company involved in the SCS reclamation project.

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So a civilian program, with likely far smaller budget and lower priority, working at a slower pace has build a larger island than Fiery Cross in less than four years.

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The company list 40 dredge and reclamation projects on the website right now. Does it look like they are short in resources?

I don't think people realize the infrastructure building capability and the speed of work in China. What may take decades to do in the US just doesn't take that long in China.