Blackstone
Brigadier
Also gives PRC cover for radar installations to track ship movements in southern SCS.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
Well, as I have said, there is not really much the US can do to halt China's activities in the SCS.
The US can talk, it can try and get other nations onboard, it can go to the UN, etc., etc.
But the fact is, the reclamation is a fait accompli.
The dredging and material construction on those reefs is not something that the US can really stop at this point. The PRC has the capability and the will to do it. The PRC can put radars on each and every one of those new islands and give the world good safety and anti-piracy, etc. reasons for doing so.
Short of a total economic boycott (which is not likely because it would be a two edged sword hurting the US as much if not more), or direct military intervention (which short of the PRC doing something really stupid is not going to happen) the US is incapable of stopping that type of work. The only possible course I see is to form a international commercial consortium that helps the other claimants build tit for tat in the SCS to match the PRC. But this is unlikely because getting everyone together would be difficult, expensive, and the US currently does not have the leadership (IMHO) to pull it together.
But, this anti-piracy thing could work to EVRYONE's advantage. IMHO, if the US were going to be smart in international relations, it would be the first to propose a multi-national effort, including China, to root out and rid the area of these pirates, and then establish international patrols for the future to ensure they never come back.
In that way everyone has a legitimate, common interest reason to have their assets in the area, stopping piracy and keeping an eye on each other in a way that benefits them all...and allows their personnel to work together and establish multi-lateral relationships.
joshuatree
Captain
Technically, China already has certain radar facilities in the Paracels and certain Spratly features they administer. To use the anti-piracy cover to build more or upgrade can be a realistic cover. This is where China can better wield it's soft power.
- Build radar facilities but build dual military/civilian use and give other neighboring countries access to the civilian radar. Like a localized version of marinetraffic.com.
- Re-invite the US and other neighboring countries to use facilities from one of the reclaimed features as a base for anti-piracy flotillas. It will be like the AIIB. Some countries may accept, others won't. But it diffuses and dilutes the perception of those facilities when other countries can call port. In the long run, this can perhaps lead to some sort of settlement among the claimants similar to the Svalbard Treaty.
- Build radar facilities but build dual military/civilian use and give other neighboring countries access to the civilian radar. Like a localized version of marinetraffic.com.
- Re-invite the US and other neighboring countries to use facilities from one of the reclaimed features as a base for anti-piracy flotillas. It will be like the AIIB. Some countries may accept, others won't. But it diffuses and dilutes the perception of those facilities when other countries can call port. In the long run, this can perhaps lead to some sort of settlement among the claimants similar to the Svalbard Treaty.
I have an excellent photo album on Flickr, and an in depth desctiption of the PRC's Reclamation efforts in the South China Sea.
If focuses on all seven major PRC reclamation projects showing current photos of the islands, and allowing you yto compare what you see now to the small structures that the PRC had in each location in 2012 or earlier.
.Amazing pictures and an amazing construction effort by the PRC in the south China Sea.
If focuses on all seven major PRC reclamation projects showing current photos of the islands, and allowing you yto compare what you see now to the small structures that the PRC had in each location in 2012 or earlier.
.Amazing pictures and an amazing construction effort by the PRC in the south China Sea.
Ultra
Junior Member
Those photos are amazing Jeff, thanks for sharing. Without putting the original structure next to it, we can't really comprehend the full scope of this massive effort. All these puts it in the right context.
The presence of large Chinese islands, even a small number, makes cooperation with China in winning oil and gas in the area more attractive than doing so against Chinese opposition. As China already offered to share with the other claimants China wouldn't win anything if it drove out the outposts of the other countries.
So China is winning all it wants by just going on as it is doing and eventually reaching agreements with these countries. US is only delaying these agreements.
So China is winning all it wants by just going on as it is doing and eventually reaching agreements with these countries. US is only delaying these agreements.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Jeff, it simply amazing ... top notch analyst.
Soon will be a lot of claimed "Experts" writing a lot of articles based on your work ... perhaps tomorrow Kanwa and WantChina will published articles
China as a state never was a prevailing sea power that came out atop the peer competitors, like British and Dutch did in the old days. That wasn't China's story. Needless to say, China wasn't involved enough in open seas business till now she still doesn't have her own sea doctrine yet. We do have national level goals, like recent pronouncement on offshore defense to open sea protection, but they can hardly be called doctrines. China has some administrative mission statements for SCS and ECS and they are again not doctrines. This FoN is a doctrine caught in the ever shifting sands of time and new concepts in international law that some conflicting views about its interpretations and practice today should be given equal consideration, if not weight.
A prevalent view of faulting China within UNCLOS.
A rebuttal from China's perspective.
A prevalent view of faulting China within UNCLOS.
A rebuttal from China's perspective.
ABC78
Junior Member
Who Is the Biggest Aggressor in the South China Sea?
[Who Is the Biggest Aggressor in the South China Sea?
In the past 20 years, Vietnam has doubled its holdings in the South China Sea.
By Greg Austin
June 18, 2015
In 1996, Vietnam occupied 24 features in the Spratly Islands (source). At that time, according to the same source, China occupied nine. By 2015, according to the United States government, Vietnam occupied 48 features, and China occupied eight.
On May 13, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense, David Shear, said this to the Senate Foreign relations Committee: “Vietnam has 48 outposts; the Philippines, 8; China, 8; Malaysia, 5, and Taiwan, 1.”
In the past 20 years, according to the United States, China has not physically occupied additional features. By contrast, Vietnam has doubled its holdings, and much of that activity has occurred recently. The Vietnamese occupations appear to have increased from 30 to 48 in the last six years.
Shear also pointed out that as of his speech, China did not have an airfield as other claimants did. He said:
All of these same claimants have also engaged in construction activity of differing scope and degree. The types of outpost upgrades vary across claimants but broadly are comprised of land reclamation, building construction and extension, and defense emplacements. Between 2009 and 2014, Vietnam was the most active claimant in terms of both outpost upgrades and land reclamation, reclaiming approximately 60 acres. All territorial claimants, with the exception of China and Brunei, have also already built airstrips of varying sizes and functionality on disputed features in the Spratlys.
It appears China has now built an airfield and that this was already visible in April 2015, when the Daily Mail reported that “images showed a paved section of runway 505m by 53m on the northeastern side” of Fiery Cross Reef. Now media pundits are engaged in a debate about how many acres China has reclaimed, suggesting that China has been more aggressive than Vietnam because it has reclaimed more acres.
The statement by Shear in May puts additional critical light on the suggestion of some in the United States that China is not only making “preposterous” claims but is being the most aggressive actor in the territorial disputes (see: “Intelligence Check: Just How ‘Preposterous’ Are China’s South China Sea Activities?”). Shear specifically said that between 2009 and 2014, Vietnam had been the most active. This helps us understand what Chinese military leaders mean when they say China has shown “great restraint.”]
[Who Is the Biggest Aggressor in the South China Sea?
In the past 20 years, Vietnam has doubled its holdings in the South China Sea.
By Greg Austin
June 18, 2015
In 1996, Vietnam occupied 24 features in the Spratly Islands (source). At that time, according to the same source, China occupied nine. By 2015, according to the United States government, Vietnam occupied 48 features, and China occupied eight.
On May 13, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense, David Shear, said this to the Senate Foreign relations Committee: “Vietnam has 48 outposts; the Philippines, 8; China, 8; Malaysia, 5, and Taiwan, 1.”
In the past 20 years, according to the United States, China has not physically occupied additional features. By contrast, Vietnam has doubled its holdings, and much of that activity has occurred recently. The Vietnamese occupations appear to have increased from 30 to 48 in the last six years.
Shear also pointed out that as of his speech, China did not have an airfield as other claimants did. He said:
All of these same claimants have also engaged in construction activity of differing scope and degree. The types of outpost upgrades vary across claimants but broadly are comprised of land reclamation, building construction and extension, and defense emplacements. Between 2009 and 2014, Vietnam was the most active claimant in terms of both outpost upgrades and land reclamation, reclaiming approximately 60 acres. All territorial claimants, with the exception of China and Brunei, have also already built airstrips of varying sizes and functionality on disputed features in the Spratlys.
It appears China has now built an airfield and that this was already visible in April 2015, when the Daily Mail reported that “images showed a paved section of runway 505m by 53m on the northeastern side” of Fiery Cross Reef. Now media pundits are engaged in a debate about how many acres China has reclaimed, suggesting that China has been more aggressive than Vietnam because it has reclaimed more acres.
The statement by Shear in May puts additional critical light on the suggestion of some in the United States that China is not only making “preposterous” claims but is being the most aggressive actor in the territorial disputes (see: “Intelligence Check: Just How ‘Preposterous’ Are China’s South China Sea Activities?”). Shear specifically said that between 2009 and 2014, Vietnam had been the most active. This helps us understand what Chinese military leaders mean when they say China has shown “great restraint.”]