China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Zarkon]

Plot the 7 reclaimed structures and then place 200nm/370.4km rings around each.

This results in nearly blanket coverage of the entire SCS continental shelf "lobe" as seen in underwater topos. Some of the coverage extends almost to the Malay-Indo border, could encompass some Indonesian islands, extends right up to the coastline of much of Vietnam, and extends PAST the Philippines Island of Palawan, to it's east.

Include Scarborough and the Paracels and you get coverage from nearly Strait of Malacca to Okinawa.

Place various assets on each and then plotting defence rings of coastal, midrange and longrange, gives PLAN coverage of most of SE Asia and nearly all of Indonesia, depending on the asset.

I won't speculate why - trying to keep my nose clean with the mods.

Having grown up in Malaysia I have more that a passing interest in the recent events in the SCS. Having swam in the waters of the Straits of Malacca on many occasions I can assure you that being on the west coast of peninsula Malaysia puts in quite out of reach of the new islands. The SCS is not a strategic chokepoint like Gibraltar is - ie FON is not at risk.

Too many people have difficulty telling the difference between a lake and a parking lot on a simple map and this deficiency often shows up in geopolitical discussions as well.

I have always viewed development in a positive light - like that produced by the lighthouses that are being built on the these mini artificial islands. The positives are clear - safe harbor in these often stormy seas, anti-piracy support (big problem in the area) and safer navigation with the help of lighthouses (lots and lots of reefs). Trying to deduce anything more than with the information available is purely speculative.

 

[Brumby]

Having grown up in Malaysia I have more that a passing interest in the recent events in the SCS. Having swam in the waters of the Straits of Malacca on many occasions I can assure you that being on the west coast of peninsula Malaysia puts in quite out of reach of the new islands. The SCS is not a strategic chokepoint like Gibraltar is - ie FON is not at risk.

Sorry I do have difficulty with your reasoning even if you happen to be a long distance swimmer.

Too many people have difficulty telling the difference between a lake and a parking lot on a simple map and this deficiency often shows up in geopolitical discussions as well.

I have spent over 30 years living in Malaysia and I can understand the confusion between a lake and a parking lot because very often the expressways are just like a big parking lot.

 

[delft]

Too many people have difficulty telling the difference between a lake and a parking lot on a simple map and this deficiency often shows up in geopolitical discussions as well.

OT
I remember reading in Kin Philby's memories the anecdote that Lord Gort, CiC of the BEF in Northern France in 1939-40, told journalists in a back ground briefing that in view of the strength of the German western defences it might be more practical to attack the weak Eastern defences through the Caucasus.
Also in a Pentagon press conference in the mid '80's there was talk of the danger of a Libyan armoured assault on Sudan through 1000 miles of Sahara desert.
When people see a map even professionals sometimes loose their feel of proportions.

 

[Zetageist]

Piracy: Second oil tanker goes missing in the South China Sea

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  June 16, 2015 00:25 BST

A second oil tanker has gone missing with 22 crew members in the South China Sea and is believed to have been hijacked.

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has launched a 1,500-strong team to search for the missing tanker, Orkim Harmony and has sought the help of neighbouring countries, including Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and Indonensia to help in the search.

The Malaysa Maritime Enforcement Agency earlier said in a statement that Orkim Harmany was sailing from the Malaysian state of Malacca to Kuantan when it disappeared.

"The last known location for the tanker was about 30 nautical miles of Tanjung Sedili east when it suddenly lost contact at around 8.50-k," the agency's operations director for the southern region, Maritime First Admiral Ibrahim Mohamed said.

On board the Malaysian-registered tanker were 22 crew from three countries – 16 Malaysians, five Indonesians and one Myanmar national.

The agency was alerted by the shipping company Orkim Ship Management Sdn Bhd at about 6.30am on 12 June that its tanker was missing.

On 4 June, the Orkim Victory, an oil tanker from the same company was attacked by eight men armed with two handguns and a dagger. The vessel's crew members were locked up in a cabin and the tanker towed 12.2 nautical miles off Pulau Aur where 770 metric tonnes of automatic diesel oil was pumped into another tanker.

Orkim Victory was then left 10.4 nautical miles south-south west of Pulau Aur after all its communications equipment were damaged and the personal belongings of crew members were seized by attackers.

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reported that authorities are conducting background checks on the tankers' crew as they believe it could be an inside job.

Heightened surveillance and point patrols have significantly reduced the number of pirate attacks in the Straits of Malacca, forcing them to target oil tankers in the South China Sea, according to authorities, the news channel reported.

 

[Jeff Head]

Soon, the people arguing may perhaps start cooperating instead, and conducting Joint Anti-Piracy operations in the SCS.

I would much rather see that.

 

[balance]

A well-thought plan. 172,000 dual-use ships. Commercial strength turned into military strength.

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[plawolf]

Just how secure are the cargo stored on oil tankers?

Obviously there are built-in safety measures to tackle leaks and fire hazards, but how hard/easy would it be for someone to override them?

If terrorists hijacked an oil tanker and rigged the entire cargo to blow, and if they managed to get it all to cook off at the same time, one shudders to think of the damage that can cause.

Do that at a key shipping choke point or major port/refinery and it could cripple economies and countries.

If there are not systematic and extremely robust safety measures built into the design of tankers to stop exactly that sort of thing, maybe the world should seriously consider making it a mandatory requirement that oil/LNG tankers above a certain tonnage would need to have military security details on board when fully laden with fuel.

The cost of such an operation would be nothing compared to the loss a oil tanker sized suicide bomb could cause, and would seem like a mission perfectly designed for the UN to run and supervise.

 

[SampanViking]

I would not necessarily go shouting terrorism or hijacking too loudly at the outset re these ships.
I would also look at Insurance fraud, esp in the context of maturing futures contracts taken out before the Oil price crash.

 

[Lezt]

Just how secure are the cargo stored on oil tankers?

Obviously there are built-in safety measures to tackle leaks and fire hazards, but how hard/easy would it be for someone to override them?

If terrorists hijacked an oil tanker and rigged the entire cargo to blow, and if they managed to get it all to cook off at the same time, one shudders to think of the damage that can cause.

Do that at a key shipping choke point or major port/refinery and it could cripple economies and countries.

If there are not systematic and extremely robust safety measures built into the design of tankers to stop exactly that sort of thing, maybe the world should seriously consider making it a mandatory requirement that oil/LNG tankers above a certain tonnage would need to have military security details on board when fully laden with fuel.

The cost of such an operation would be nothing compared to the loss a oil tanker sized suicide bomb could cause, and would seem like a mission perfectly designed for the UN to run and supervise.

Crude oil does not explode, it is too thick. heck, even gasoline does not explode unless you aerate it. in a harbor, it will continue to burn for days.

 

[jkliz]

Just how secure are the cargo stored on oil tankers?

Obviously there are built-in safety measures to tackle leaks and fire hazards, but how hard/easy would it be for someone to override them?

If terrorists hijacked an oil tanker and rigged the entire cargo to blow, and if they managed to get it all to cook off at the same time, one shudders to think of the damage that can cause.

Do that at a key shipping choke point or major port/refinery and it could cripple economies and countries.

If there are not systematic and extremely robust safety measures built into the design of tankers to stop exactly that sort of thing, maybe the world should seriously consider making it a mandatory requirement that oil/LNG tankers above a certain tonnage would need to have military security details on board when fully laden with fuel.

The cost of such an operation would be nothing compared to the loss a oil tanker sized suicide bomb could cause, and would seem like a mission perfectly designed for the UN to run and supervise.

There was an entire novel dedicated to this scenario. Al Qaeda terrorists had highjacked a LNG tanker and placed it in the path of a US naval patrol, allowing it to leak its gaseous content completely unknown to the American sailors who couldn't detect the leak until they got too close where the terrorists on board would detonate themselves and the entire gas-air mixture.