China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Blitzo]

That is more of our expectation rather than an onus on the part of the destroyer. Judging from its armament and propulsion, it was not there to deal with the PCG ship. However, since it is sent, there must be constraints on where it could go. In SCS there are often foreign naval vessels "exercising FON" so the destroyer can't just leave. The argument that the destroyer is at fault for not leaving just doesn't work no matter how you many times you repeat it.


The issue isn't whether something could happen but how likely it is to happen. Given PLAN's institutional track record, standard competency of personnel and reasonable rules of engagement should be the base assumptions. Baseless speculation on deviations are as waste of time as worrying about being striked by lightning.

What more likely happened is that the Filippnos are already accustomed to Chinese rules of engagement to stay one step ahead.

I think we will have to agree to disagree here.

I do agree that in general PLAN competency as a baseline is to be expected, but everyone makes mistakes, whether it is at the planning level or the real time command/tactical level.
The PLAN went into this with the correlation of forces on their side -- it should be reasonable to expect they knew how to use it and how to mitigate the usual PCG tactics.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

The Tang dynasty was the last period when China had a spirit of exploration and expansion，China become conservative and close ever since Song dynasty

Qing Dynasty says what?

 

[Sardaukar20]

Great Leap forward was caused due to poor governance and natural disasters and even then the worst year of the famine only had 25% higher death rate than India and around the same death rate as pre-revolution China. It only seems so high because China brought death rate down so much after.

I would add that the famine of the Great Leap Forward wasn't only caused by poor governance and natural disasters. There were external factors too. China at that time was under a trade embargo imposed by the West, led by the US. In contemporary language, it's called sanctions. So China couldn't import food when famine struck. In contrast, during the Cold War period, when India faced the threat of famine, it had been able to import grain from the US and avert disaster. Hence, China in the Cold War doesn't get any bailout when it makes mistakes, or is struck by natural disasters. The North Korean famine in the 1990s was also the same. There were mistakes yes, but Western sanctions have denied NK of food relief and people starved. If there is anyone to blame, the West should be included too.

The West have a history of starving millions of people to death. The British starved the Indians, the Germans starved Leningrad, the Americans starved Iraq and Syria, and the Israelis are starving Gaza. The Western establishment are adept at deflecting these crimes to their adversaries. From Mao Zedong to Hamas. Because of their powerful influence in media and academia, they can easily write their own version of history in the English-language sphere.

 

[siegecrossbow]

How long do you think it will take for the CCG to release its casualty count? It took several months for the PLA to release the Galwan Valley count.

Probably after lessons are learned and applied and the bagu articles are ready.

 

[Sardaukar20]

But you have to say, government covering up when everyone knows about it doesn't paint the government in good light but instead as opaque, untrustworthy and not willing to own up to its mistakes especially when there are likely casualties on top of being incompetent with this accident. Its playing right into western portrayal of the Chinese government.

Yet they are in no position to lecture China. The American government have not been very forthcoming about the Potomac river mid-air collision that had killed 64 civilians. Or the near-collision between a B-52 and a Delta Airlines plane. How about the various collision cases by USN destroyers and a nuclear submarine in the last few years? These were far more dangerous instances of military incompetence. Let them laugh and sneer at the Chinese government all they want. We can do more of the same to them.

 

[votran]

I would add that the famine of the Great Leap Forward wasn't only caused by poor governance and natural disasters. There were external factors too. China at that time was under a trade embargo imposed by the West, led by the US. In today's terms, it's called sanctions. So China couldn't import food when famine struck. In contrast, during the Cold War period, when India faced the threat of famine, it had been able to import grain from the US. Hence, China in the Cold War doesn't get any bailout when it makes mistakes, or is struck by natural disasters. The North Korean famine in the 1990s was also the same. There were mistakes yes, but Western sanctions have denied NK of food relief and people starved. If there is anyone to blame, the West should be included too.

The West have a history of starving millions of people to death. The British starved Indians, the Germans starved Leningrad, the Americans starved Iraq and Syria, and the Israelis are starving Gaza. The Western establishment are adept at deflecting these crimes to their adversaries. From Mao Zedong to Hamas. Because of their powerful influence in media and academia, they can easily write their own version of history in the English-language sphere.

The West have a history of ruthless geopolitic plan and acting , they rarely miss any chance to fked their enemy over
their grovernment and even population deep down understand much more clearly about the world alway run by zero sum game standard , might make right , dog eat dog .
there are no gods , no heaven , no divine power in sky , no karma exist punishing dirty , violent , unjustice , agressive , evil play then reward the good guy in world domination game of throne
it all about economic power , military power and internaltional propagranda power
they alway do moral standard , rules base order and crap propagranda but that the trick they use to make people think they are good guy
expect they playing fair , don't take advantage of you when you weak is just laughable

for some reason today china after so many suffer still thinking if they playing nice , be a nice guy somehow miracle gonna happen the world will understand , the divine heaven in sky will understand and throw down magic make the west fall , hand over world mandate of heaven to china .
with minimum violent and bloodshed ....aka 以德服人 Conquer people with virtue

basically china today want to be world level liubei .

i don't think i need to repeat again which nation among 3 kingdom die first and who win at the end the good guy or the ruthless one never miss any chance to fked over anyone he see as threat

 

[Tomboy]

Yet they are in no position to lecture China. The American government have not been very forthcoming about the Potomac river mid-air collision that had killed 64 civilians. Or the near-collision between a B-52 and a Delta Airlines plane. How about the various collision cases by USN destroyers and a nuclear submarine in the last few years? These were far more dangerous instances of military incompetence. Let them laugh and sneer at the Chinese government all they want. We can do more of the same to them.

Its not about how serious the accident is, its about the government not coming clean with it and trying to sweep it under the rug like nothing happened. They are deleting all picture and video of it on domestic internet. To my knowledge all of those accidents in/about the US were heavily reported both domestically and internationally.

 

[cft4201]

Its not about how serious the accident is, its about the government not coming clean with it and trying to sweep it under the rug like nothing happened. They are deleting all picture and video of it on domestic internet. To my knowledge all of those accidents in/about the US were heavily reported both domestically and internationally.

That's true. But I think this is mainly because it happened close to the parade (within one month) so for now, they will not report on it. But I think after October they might speak on it, or maybe do so some years later.

 

[Sardaukar20]

The West have a history of ruthless geopolitic plan and acting , they rarely miss any chance to fked their enemy over
their grovernment and even population deep down understand much more clearly about the world alway run by zero sum game standard , might make right , dog eat dog .
there are no gods , no heaven , no divine power in sky , no karma exist punishing dirty , violent , unjustice , agressive , evil play then reward the good guy in world domination game of throne
it all about economic power , military power and internaltional propagranda power
they alway do moral standard , rules base order and crap propagranda but that the trick they use to make people think they are good guy
expect they playing fair , don't take advantage of you when you weak is just laughable

for some reason today china after so many suffer still thinking if they playing nice , be a nice guy somehow miracle gonna happen the world will understand , the divine heaven in sky will understand and throw down magic make the west fall , hand over world mandate of heaven to china .
with minimum violent and bloodshed ....aka 以德服人 Conquer people with virtue

basically china today want to be world level liubei .

i don't think i need to repeat again which nation among 3 kingdom die first and who win at the end the good guy or the ruthless one never miss any chance to fked over anyone he see as threat

You're mistaken in thinking that China today is acting as a naive nice guy. That period had practically ended in 2016. If China was playing nice, it would have accepted that scandalous 2016 tribunal by the Permanent Court of Arbitration. China would not have built an airstrip on Meiji Jiao. China would not have been sending the CCG to regularly harass and boot out Filipino presence around its SCS islands. A nice and compliant China would have blindly accepted the Western and SEA interpretation of UNCLOS.

The one side of China that had been playing nice is the ROC (Taiwan). Its shares the same claims in the SCS as the PRC. Yet, because it had been so meek in enforcing China's claims, Filipino coastguards had the cheek to shoot and kill a Taiwanese fisherman back in 2013. The PCG have also shot and killed fishermen from other ASEAN nations. But as of today, the PCG have not the balls to shoot at mainland Chinese fishermen. Why is that? Its simple, mainland China is not to be messed with. The last SEA nation that FAFOed with China had its marines chewed up by cannon rounds from a PLAN warship on an islet. Yes, the Filipinos should be on a high from laughing at the CCG-PLAN blunder. If they start feeling tough, they are can try to FA with mainland China and FO.

 

[Sardaukar20]

Its not about how serious the accident is, its about the government not coming clean with it and trying to sweep it under the rug like nothing happened. They are deleting all picture and video of it on domestic internet. To my knowledge all of those accidents in/about the US were heavily reported both domestically and internationally.

If you've been around on this forum long enough, you'll know that that is the MO of the Chinese government. We had seen the same patterns during the 2017 Doklam stand off, 2019 HK riots, 2020 Covid emergency, 2020 Galwan conflict, and the 2022 Pelosi visit to Taiwan. In the immediate timeline of those events, the Chinese government have been frustratingly silent. Many posters on SDF including myself have criticize them the same way that you are doing now. Then when we look back on those events today, have China came out worse? Have China became weaker? What we have observed is that the opposite have actually happened.

Bottom line is, the Chinese government doesn't like to sensationalize bad news, and they like to take their sweet time to sort things out. Yes they impose censorship and push out propaganda, but at least they are not pretentious about "free speech" or "free media". It is frustrating to people who support China from the outside to watch, but this is the way the Chinese government works. Just be patient, we shall see a fitting response from China when the time comes.