China's SCS Strategy Thread

萌萌与猫猫

Just Hatched
Registered Member
A bit late to the party, but here's my two cents amidst the all the doomerism here. Now yes, it was a fuckup and those responsible deserve the hatchet. As for member reactions and all those feeling "depressed," I seem to recall that whenever Ukraine does one its Moskva style strike on Russia people here generally respond as such, "Yes it was impressive, yes Russian defences have a lot of holes, but it doesn't change the reality on the ground that Ukraine is irreversibly losing territory against Russia and there's nothing they or NATO can do about it." Apply the same logic here not just to make yourself feel better, but that is the gist of what I see from the situation. That whatever happened, nothing changes the reality of the ground with respect to China's control of Scarborough Shoal and continued naval dominance in the region. A single embarassing incident isn't going to make Bongbong Marcos anymore popular and his position against Sara Duterte any less precarious. A single embarassing incident too isn't going to magically make the US want to cross more of China's redlines. If it did, Trump wouldn't have extended the China tariff truce today.

So take a deep breath, do what you need to get the incident out your head, because guess what? The world would've long forgotten about yesterday by Friday and moved on to the next big story.
PLAN has not responded regarding this incident yet. I get that there is over 1 billion people and there needs to be order, but the thing is a lot of people know about it already... Maybe it's better to come out and reassure people...
Given the current response from the Chinese government, its approach to handling public opinion, and the current state of public sentiment within China, it is unlikely that the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or any other authoritative institution will step forward to provide any explanation or follow-up reports on this matter. Such a major scandal, if made public at the official level, would only lead to even more intense ridicule and mockery, especially since China's domestic opposition would not be satisfied by such attempts at appeasement; they would only celebrate even more vigorously.
 

muddie

Junior Member
Sending a destroyer against such speed boats is the big problem. They should have sent faster and smaller speed boats against PCG that can chase them properly. Type 022s are probably the only option that can chase these speedboats. But I don't think sending those to the deep sea is a good idea either. They probably need to induct fast speed boats into the CCG.

Agreed, IMO this is the main problem.

It's difficult to achieve any meaningful operational advantage when facing a vastly smaller and technologically inferior opponent like the Philippines. Reminds me of U.S. using F-22s and F-35s to bomb a few Taliban fighters hiding in the bushes with AKs. The PLAN should be kept out of these cat and mouse games with the Philippines unless it actually goes hot.

Only the CCG should be involved and hopefully they introduce newer boats designed for this type of skirmishing. Willing to bet that the Philippines will try these types of high-risk maneuvers again very soon.
 

Tomboy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Given the current response from the Chinese government, its approach to handling public opinion, and the current state of public sentiment within China, it is unlikely that the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or any other authoritative institution will step forward to provide any explanation or follow-up reports on this matter. Such a major scandal, if made public at the official level, would only lead to even more intense ridicule and mockery, especially since China's domestic opposition would not be satisfied by such attempts at appeasement; they would only celebrate even more vigorously.
It would be rather disappointing if they will not even come public with loss of life, these men died in their line of duty, the government should alteast acknowledge their service and not sweep it under the rug.
 

Engineer

Major
I'm not sure in what world "risk of collision" is not considered a real consequence.

If you are asking about guaranteed one to one "consequences" that isn't how this works.

Yeah, because DDG164 shouldn't have found itself in this situation to begin with.
In the same world where a threat of taking away the home of a homeless person isn't considered as a real consequence. Every single mission undertake by that PCG crew is a "risk of collision" with ships bigger than they are, and if they were so risk adverse they would have stayed home. In other words, your "risk" wouldn't count as real consequence for the Filipinos if they treat it merely as occupational hazard.

Yeah, because DDG164 shouldn't have found itself in this situation to begin with.
If your claim of speed and mass advantages actually deterred the Filipinos from getting close (for fearing a collision), DDG164 wouldn't be in this situation. Yet, here we are.

Let's put it this way -- it is more likely that the PLAN made a decision (enabled either the command of the ship, or the underlying ROEs) than the PCG managing to somehow entrap the hapless destroyer in some sort of situation that it did not have opportunities to extricate itself from.
The destroyer didn't need to actively engage the PCG; the destroyer merely needed to be in the vicinity. The PCG didn't need to entrap the destroyer; it only needed to exploit the fact that the destroyer is there. The only sure way for the destroyer to "extradite itself" completely would be to abandon post and such expectation is preposterous.
 

萌萌与猫猫

Just Hatched
Registered Member
It would be rather disappointing if they will not even come public with loss of life, these men died in their line of duty, the government should alteast acknowledge their service and not sweep it under the rug.
I guess they might hold a memorial service and honor them as martyrs after the public opinion has died down, but with the military parade coming up, now might not be the best time.
 
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