China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Blitzo]

I asked about real consequences (for the Filipinos to provoke the destroyer), you admitted no shot would be fired. So, no real consequence. That should have been the end, but you then went off on a tangent claiming the Filipinos to be risk averse. That rest of my reply which you quoted is directed at your claim.

I'm not sure in what world "risk of collision" is not considered a real consequence.

If you are asking about guaranteed one to one "consequences" that isn't how this works.

No one is denying mass and speed couldn't be advantageous. They aren't advantageous in every situation, and they clearly didn't do much for DDG164 in this situation.

Yeah, because DDG164 shouldn't have found itself in this situation to begin with.

I am saying your assumption is unlikely to be applicable on PLAN ships, because a captain in PLAN does not have the kind of supreme authority as their western counterparts to go gung-ho. Could multiple people go gung-ho? Sure. Likely? Not so much. If you can't understand my posts, then you debated with Reddit retards for far too long or you are purposely being obtuse or both.


————————

It seems people prefer to believe in some alternate realities where PLAN officers enjoy making absurd decisions than to entertain the possibility that the Filipinos may have employed a correct tactic. Everyone be like "even retards know you don't risk a destroyer in playing bumper cars" then assume Filipinos would be too stupid to have the same realization to exploit the situation.

Let's put it this way -- it is more likely that the PLAN made a decision (enabled either the command of the ship, or the underlying ROEs) than the PCG managing to somehow entrap the hapless destroyer in some sort of situation that it did not have opportunities to extricate itself from.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I'm not sure in what world "risk of collision" is not considered a real consequence.

If you are asking about guaranteed one to one "consequences" that isn't how this works.




Yeah, because DDG164 shouldn't have found itself in this situation to begin with.



Let's put it this way -- it is more likely that the PLAN made a decision (enabled either the command of the ship, or the underlying ROEs) than the PCG managing to somehow entrap the hapless destroyer in some sort of situation that it did not have opportunities to extricate itself from.

Sending a destroyer against such speed boats is the big problem. They should have sent faster and smaller speed boats against PCG that can chase them properly. Type 022s are probably the only option that can chase these speedboats. But I don't think sending those to the deep sea is a good idea either. They probably need to induct fast speed boats into the CCG.

 

[萌萌与猫猫]

派驱逐舰对抗这种快艇是个大问题。他们应该派速度更快、体型更小的快艇去对付菲律宾海警，这样才能好好追击。022型或许是唯一能追击这些快艇的选择。但我认为派这些快艇去深海也不是个好主意。他们或许需要把高速艇纳入菲律宾海警的队伍中

警告射击绝对必要。海岸警卫队船只至少应该用火炮向菲律宾海岸警卫队船只前方发出警告射击。火炮可以完全弥补海岸警卫队船只在速度和机动性方面的劣势。除了胆怯之外，我不知道还有什么理由阻止海岸警卫队这样做。

 

[tamsen_ikard]

警告射击绝对必要。海岸警卫队船只至少应该用火炮向菲律宾海岸警卫队船只前方发出警告射击。火炮可以完全弥补海岸警卫队船只在速度和机动性方面的劣势。除了胆怯之外，我不知道还有什么理由阻止海岸警卫队这样做。

You should be replying in English.

Warning shots are like final warnings. The idea is that if the warning shot is ignored, you fire it at the actual ship. But China doesn't want to do that yet. So, they cannot do warning shots that easily.

There is a lot of steps before a warning shot comes in the list of actions. Like starting water canon, ramming, boarding, arresting personnel and so on.

 

[萌萌与猫猫]

You should be replying in English.

Warning shots are like final warnings. The idea is that if the warning shot is ignored, you fire it at the actual ship. But China doesn't want to do that yet. So, they cannot do warning shots that easily.

There is a lot of steps before a warning shot comes in the list of actions. Like starting water canon, ramming, boarding, arresting personnel and so on.

Sorry, I don't know why the translator suddenly stopped working.

But at that point, the situation had escalated to the point where we had to resort to a collision tactic. since you’ve already decided to use large-tonnage ships to directly ram the enemy, why not use artillery to achieve the same result? If they really want to use water cannons for limited firing, why have destroyers intervene in such a high-risk manner? The 052DG is the main battleship of the Chinese Navy; it clearly shouldn’t be used for such low-level interception, let alone guided into a violent collision with coast guard vessels. The ideal tactic should be to have the 164 ship maintain vigilance on the periphery, while the 3104 ship carries out pursuit and warning fire. In fact, I strongly doubt the necessity of dispatching a warship for vigilance against a small vessel less than 40 meters in length. Given that the 3104 ship is already a Type 056 destroyer, even if it has removed its missile launchers and sonar systems, the remaining armament would still be more than sufficient to completely destroy a dozen Philippine Coast Guard vessels. The Type 056's main guns could easily penetrate the enemy's armor, while the enemy's machine guns and water cannons pose no threat to the Type 056. So why is it necessary to deploy a warship for surveillance? Deploying disproportionate force is inherently a high-risk endeavor. If the military deems it necessary, they should take decisive action. The contradictory mindset of wanting to flex military muscle while maintaining restraint and civility is the root cause of this failure.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Sorry, I don't know why the translator suddenly stopped working.

But at that point, the situation had escalated to the point where we had to resort to a collision tactic. since you’ve already decided to use large-tonnage ships to directly ram the enemy, why not use artillery to achieve the same result? If they really want to use water cannons for limited firing, why have destroyers intervene in such a high-risk manner? The 052DG is the main battleship of the Chinese Navy; it clearly shouldn’t be used for such low-level interception, let alone guided into a violent collision with coast guard vessels. The ideal tactic should be to have the 164 ship maintain vigilance on the periphery, while the 3104 ship carries out pursuit and warning fire. In fact, I strongly doubt the necessity of dispatching a warship for vigilance against a small vessel less than 40 meters in length. Given that the 3104 ship is already a Type 056 destroyer, even if it has removed its missile launchers and sonar systems, the remaining armament would still be more than sufficient to completely destroy a dozen Philippine Coast Guard vessels. The Type 056's main guns could easily penetrate the enemy's armor, while the enemy's machine guns and water cannons pose no threat to the Type 056. So why is it necessary to deploy a warship for surveillance? Deploying disproportionate force is inherently a high-risk endeavor. If the military deems it necessary, they should take decisive action. The contradictory mindset of wanting to flex military muscle while maintaining restraint and civility is the root cause of this failure.

Well if they are
Firing at the ship, it means people will die. That's pretty much a declaration of war.

Cause the other will also start firing and then the Chinese ship will have to go for the kill in self-defense. That just became a war.

Ramming is preferable cause China has the bigger ships. If they ram the Philippines, they can't ram back. So, philippines can only back down. China is essentially overpowering them using a grey zone tactic.

Moreover, ramming is less likely to cause casualties but still damage the ship enough that it has to do repairs which will cost the Philippines.

Overall it's a smart move.

 

[萌萌与猫猫]

Well if they are
Firing at the ship, it means people will die. That's pretty much a declaration of war.

Cause the other will also start firing and then the Chinese ship will have to go for the kill in self-defense. That just became a war.

Ramming is preferable cause China has the bigger ships. If they ram the Philippines, they can't ram back. So, philippines can only back down. China is essentially overpowering them using a grey zone tactic.

Moreover, ramming is less likely to cause casualties but still damage the ship enough that it has to do repairs which will cost the Philippines.

Overall it's a smart move.

I don't think they would make such a rash decision. If they were really going to go to war, it wouldn't be because of a warning shot, but because of deeper underlying reasons. Since they were already prepared to use a collision to drive the other side away, what's wrong with testing the other side's bottom line further? And even if they were going to use a collision, wouldn't using a destroyer, such a valuable asset, for this kind of thing be a disaster？Winning wouldn't bring glory, and losing would be a disgrace. A single coast guard vessel would be more than sufficient. Moreover, don't forget that both the coast guard and the navy have airpower. Using aircraft and helicopters for deterrence—such as dropping objects from above—is entirely feasible. Any such approach would be far better than resorting to such extreme force only to hesitate and back down in the end. I still hold the same view: if you don’t want to go to war from the start, don’t use this level of force. Finally, if, in the face of territorial infringement, you repeatedly back down to avoid war and lose your bottom line, then what is the purpose of having an army?

 

[Sardaukar20]

Sending a destroyer against such speed boats is the big problem. They should have sent faster and smaller speed boats against PCG that can chase them properly. Type 022s are probably the only option that can chase these speedboats. But I don't think sending those to the deep sea is a good idea either. They probably need to induct fast speed boats into the CCG.

The PCG vessel in the incident was BRP Suluan (MRRV-4406), a Parola-class patrol vessel, made in Japan. The vessels of this class have are 321 tons in displacement and have a rated top speed of 25 knots.

The CCG ship 3104 is a Type 056 with a similar top speed, but at 1500 tons is nearly 5 times in displacement. The Type 056 appears to be a suitable vessel to chase after a Parola-class. It can bully the much smaller vessel in ramming maneuvers. However the smaller vessel is obviously more nimble. The CCG have smaller and more nimble vessels, but for that situation, 3104 was the CCG vessel available, and on paper, suitable for the confrontation.

The main problem is the presence of the Type 052D DDG 164 at the scene. Why is a DDG involved in a coast guard confrontation concerning fishing disputes? Up until recently, this was always the CCG's domain. Was the DDG just passing by? Or had it overstepped it's duties by getting involved in coastguard work?

 

[TPenglake]

A bit late to the party, but here's my two cents amidst the all the doomerism here. Now yes, it was a fuckup and those responsible deserve the hatchet. As for member reactions and all those feeling "depressed," I seem to recall that whenever Ukraine does one its Moskva style strike on Russia people here generally respond as such, "Yes it was impressive, yes Russian defences have a lot of holes, but it doesn't change the reality on the ground that Ukraine is irreversibly losing territory against Russia and there's nothing they or NATO can do about it." Apply the same logic here not just to make yourself feel better, but that is the gist of what I see from the situation. That whatever happened, nothing changes the reality of the ground with respect to China's control of Scarborough Shoal and continued naval dominance in the region. A single embarassing incident isn't going to make Bongbong Marcos anymore popular and his position against Sara Duterte any less precarious. A single embarassing incident too isn't going to magically make the US want to cross more of China's redlines. If it did, Trump wouldn't have extended the China tariff truce today.

So take a deep breath, do what you need to get the incident out your head, because guess what? The world would've long forgotten about yesterday by Friday and moved on to the next big story.

 

[cft4201]

PLAN has not responded regarding this incident yet. I get that there is over 1 billion people and there needs to be order, but the thing is a lot of people know about it already... Maybe it's better to come out and reassure people...