China's SCS Strategy Thread

joshuatree

Captain
8615362085_f38a5baaa9_b.jpg

Maps with that type of caption is what I call propaganda. No, it is not common sense because distance is not what determines sovereignty. Otherwise, we can all revisit statuses of places like Falkland Islands, St Pierre and Miquelon, etc etc. As much as criticisms are levied at China for being rigid and inflexible on their position in these disputes, the same is said for all the other claimants. Taiwan is the only one who's ever suggested co-use of the area.

The consideration by the US of sailing/flying within 12nm of Chinese occupied features that they deem are not legally entitled to a territorial zone is meant to demonstrate the area is open to freedom of navigation and to put China on the spot. Because, two paths become the apparent choices for Chinese response. If the US goes within 12nm, the Chinese will either have to denounce it as flying within their territorial space and initiates some sort of aggressive response. That immediately makes them a glaring violator of international law so that's what the opponents want. Or China aside from verbal warnings, pretty much let's the US go within 12 nm and it be a "victory" for the US and allies. The area is not Chinese because we did want we want. That is the trap I see potentially being set.

However, giving more thought and time on this possible US action, there can be another move. More often than not, people keep separating Taiping Island as Taiwanese and apart from China. But the UN and even the US adheres to the One China policy. So with that factored in, there is a third response possible.

For reclaimed sites that did not have any features above water during high tide, the US may sail/fly within 12 nm of feature. The Chinese could trail/escort/observe the US vessel and simply warn them about being provocative, not warn them about being in territorial waters. The US would go home and say "see, we've demonstrated freedom of navigation and we don't observe/acknowledge Chinese application of a 12nm territorial zone to man-made features". However, this is where Taiping factors in. China could then rebuttal with -

"We adhere to freedom of navigation as evidenced by what the US did. All features above water at high tide are entitled to 12nm per UNCLOS and other features do not. However, all Chinese reclaimed features are well within Taiping's EEZ so no international law has been broken. We regret the US decided to make unannounced/uninvited visits and view them as destabilizing. Because of THIS, we will now set up an ADIZ for early identification to help lower risks of collisions in the air and at sea." This ADIZ should not be as rigid as the one in the ECS, meaning it should not require commercial flights to pre-submit their flight plans, etc etc. But it means the Chinese will scramble to meet and greet other military assets when within a certain distance to better understand the other's intent.

The game of Chess/Weiqi continues.

The Chinese should then continue with other soft power moves such as inviting others to partake in anti-piracy patrols, even joint fishery patrols. That would be my armchair general play.
 

Ultra

Junior Member
Maps with that type of caption is what I call propaganda. No, it is not common sense because distance is not what determines sovereignty. Otherwise, we can all revisit statuses of places like Falkland Islands, St Pierre and Miquelon, etc etc. As much as criticisms are levied at China for being rigid and inflexible on their position in these disputes, the same is said for all the other claimants. Taiwan is the only one who's ever suggested co-use of the area.


Uh, did you read what I said? "IGNORE THE RETORIC IN WHITE TEXT - ITS JUST AN IMAGE I FOUN D ON GOOGLE." I am only using the image to show the distance from Spraty Island to the Hainan Island to demonstrate to Bltizo that J-11 and Su-30MK2 has the range to cover these areas. I use that image as I can't be bother to have Google Earth installed just to measure that distance and screen capture the image and find a online image hosting site and upload the image......its just too much trouble.

And it goes without saying - I completely agree with you, as US/UK/France are all hypocrites in this regard when they own lands far away from their own land mass which is ridicules. Its classic syndrome of pot calling the kettle black, and "do as I say but not as I do".



The consideration by the US of sailing/flying within 12nm of Chinese occupied features that they deem are not legally entitled to a territorial zone is meant to demonstrate the area is open to freedom of navigation and to put China on the spot. Because, two paths become the apparent choices for Chinese response. If the US goes within 12nm, the Chinese will either have to denounce it as flying within their territorial space and initiates some sort of aggressive response. That immediately makes them a glaring violator of international law so that's what the opponents want. Or China aside from verbal warnings, pretty much let's the US go within 12 nm and it be a "victory" for the US and allies. The area is not Chinese because we did want we want. That is the trap I see potentially being set.


They can fly as close as they want to 12 nm of these islands, but they can't stop Chinese from constructing and the reclamation without using physical force which means to LAND ON THE ISLAND, the chinese can bid their time and let them do whatever as long as they don't land on the island - and if USN does (which I highly doubt they would) then Chinese have every right to arrest or kill whoever tries to land on these island. And the only scenerio I can think of is that US incites Philippine to forcefully land on the island while doing the protective cover/blockade/harassment to prevent Chinese reinforcement on the island.


However, giving more thought and time on this possible US action, there can be another move. More often than not, people keep separating Taiping Island as Taiwanese and apart from China. But the UN and even the US adheres to the One China policy. So with that factored in, there is a third response possible.

For reclaimed sites that did not have any features above water during high tide, the US may sail/fly within 12 nm of feature. The Chinese could trail/escort/observe the US vessel and simply warn them about being provocative, not warn them about being in territorial waters. The US would go home and say "see, we've demonstrated freedom of navigation and we don't observe/acknowledge Chinese application of a 12nm territorial zone to man-made features". However, this is where Taiping factors in. China could then rebuttal with -

"We adhere to freedom of navigation as evidenced by what the US did. All features above water at high tide are entitled to 12nm per UNCLOS and other features do not. However, all Chinese reclaimed features are well within Taiping's EEZ so no international law has been broken. We regret the US decided to make unannounced/uninvited visits and view them as destabilizing. Because of THIS, we will now set up an ADIZ for early identification to help lower risks of collisions in the air and at sea." This ADIZ should not be as rigid as the one in the ECS, meaning it should not require commercial flights to pre-submit their flight plans, etc etc. But it means the Chinese will scramble to meet and greet other military assets when within a certain distance to better understand the other's intent.

The game of Chess/Weiqi continues.

The Chinese should then continue with other soft power moves such as inviting others to partake in anti-piracy patrols, even joint fishery patrols. That would be my armchair general play.

Agree, I think that's one way it could play out.
 

joshuatree

Captain
Uh, did you read what I said? "IGNORE THE RETORIC IN WHITE TEXT - ITS JUST AN IMAGE I FOUN D ON GOOGLE." I am only using the image to show the distance from Spraty Island to the Hainan Island to demonstrate to Bltizo that J-11 and Su-30MK2 has the range to cover these areas. I use that image as I can't be bother to have Google Earth installed just to measure that distance and screen capture the image and find a online image hosting site and upload the image......its just too much trouble.

I did see your note but I just felt the need to comment on that "Common Sense" line regardless. I can deal with standards but not when it is "do as I say, not as I do". :D
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
How about this one?, the US supported the Japanese claim
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Japan and China Dispute a Pacific Islet
By NORIMITSU ONISHI
Published: July 10, 2005
TOKYO, July 9 - The smaller of the two is roughly the size of a twin bed and pokes only 2.9 inches out of the ocean. The larger, as big as a small bedroom perhaps, manages to rise up 6.3 inches.

The governor of Tokyo raised the Rising Sun over an islet in the Pacific.
Okinotori lies between Taiwan and American bases on Guam.
The Japanese government has already spent $600 million to keep the two barren islets in the western Pacific above water. Collectively called Okinotori and located 1,082 miles south of here, the islets have long allowed Tokyo to claim exclusive economic control over an ocean area larger than all of Japan.

But a threat potentially bigger than typhoons or global warming emerged last year when China challenged Japan's exclusive rights to the economically and militarily important waters, describing Okinotori as just a "rock."

Rock or island, Okinotori lies in a three-square-mile coral reef, most of which is under water even at low tide. A few decades ago, the area was dotted with half a dozen islets, but by 1989, only two were still visible. To protect its claim, the government in Tokyo encased the tiny protrusions - some 1,400 yards apart - in 82-foot-thick concrete, an effort that cost $280 million. Workers later covered the smaller islet with a $50 million titanium net to shield it from debris thrown up by the waves.

Finally, slits were made across the concrete casing, so it would comply with the United Nations law that an island be "surrounded by water."

As with some of Japan's other territorial disputes, a patriotic organization with right-wing roots has taken the lead in rebutting the Chinese challenge to Okinotori's status. The organization, the Nippon Foundation, has drawn short-term plans to build a lighthouse and long-term ones to increase the size of the islets by breeding micro-organisms known as foraminifera. The government last month installed a radar, repaired a heliport and placed an official address plaque, "1 Okinotori Island, Ogasawara Village, Tokyo."

Shintaro Ishihara, the tough-talking governor of Tokyo, under whose jurisdiction the islets fall, took reporters to Okinotori recently and raised the Japanese flag on it.

"That's an island," he said later. "A tiny island. Territory."

"Got a problem with that?" he said with a grin.

The Chinese do. In a meeting with Japanese officials last year, they said Okinotori could not be regarded as an island under the United Nations Law of the Sea.

According to the law, an "island is a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water, which is above water at high tide." Furthermore, it adds, "rocks which cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own shall have no exclusive economic zone."

Okinotori lies at a militarily strategic point, midway between Taiwan and Guam, where American forces are based. Chinese vessels - whose increasing forays into this disputed exclusive economic zone have been drawing Japanese protests - are believed to be mapping the sea bottom over which Americans warships might pass on their way to Taiwan.

Washington supports Tokyo on the island versus rock issue. But a visit to Tokyo in February by John R. Bolton, then an under secretary of state, no doubt left the Japanese scratching their heads: With friends like these, who needs the Chinese?

An American reporter unable to pronounce Okinotori shima, which means "Offshore bird island," asked Mr. Bolton about "Otokono shima," a nonexistent island that would mean, "Man's island."

"The rock," Mr. Bolton said.

"Yeah, the rock," the reporter said.

No one has ever lived on Okinotori, and the islets have yet to show any sign of economic life. Workers are deployed twice a year to make repairs to the casing that sits atop Okinotori, and this year, after China's "rock" declaration, the Ministry of Land raised the budget for it to $5.6 million, from $2 million.

Last fall, fearing that inaction would mean losing out to China, the Nippon Foundation focused its considerable resources on the issue.

"If someone doesn't do it, this country would drag its feet and nothing would be decided," said Yoshihiko Yamada, who oversees the Okinotori project for the foundation.

The foundation led teams of researchers and reporters on two boat trips to Okinotori. Mr. Yamada, something of a romantic, waxed poetic about the "moonlit sea," the "mysterious natural environment" and the flyingfish jumping merrily around the ship.

"We made it into sashimi and it was delicious," he said.

The foundation now wants to build a $1 million lighthouse, which would constitute economic activity by guiding ships. "If the government can't do that, we are asking them to let us do it," Mr. Yamada said.

Other proposals include opening up Okinotori to divers or ecotourists. Masazumi Nagamitsu, an executive director at the foundation, is partial to an international coral research center and a 6,500-foot runway. An even more ambitious proposal would reverse the land erosion by attracting foraminifera - hard-shelled organisms that would attach themselves to the islet.

"Well, I wonder what their intention is with these proposals," said Katsunori Kadoyu, an official at the Ministry of Land, which administers Okinotori. He has yet to step foot on Okinotori but watches live images of it from a camera set up there in February. "It is a bit difficult to answer."

Part of the difficulty lies in the history of the Nippon Foundation, which was founded by Ryoichi Sasakawa, a World War II war-crimes suspect who built a gambling empire around motorboat racing.

Yukio Hori, a retired professor at Tohoku Bunka Gakuen University and author, said the government and nationalist groups often had a collaborative relationship. Those groups would typically push a project that government officials were hesitant to do openly.

In another territorial dispute with China, over the Senkaku Islands, Japan's largest right-wing group, Nihon Seinen-sha, built a lighthouse there 27 years ago and traveled to it regularly for repairs. After the government and Nihon Seinen-sha engaged in negotiations last year, the government finally took over control of the lighthouse early this year.

On Okinotori, the government may let the foundation build its lighthouse. Doing so on its own could be too provocative to the Chinese.

"In some aspect," Mr. Nagamitsu said, "we are doing things that the government finds a bit difficult to do, or that they are entrusting us to do, or hoping we would do.
 

weig2000

Captain
How about this one?, the US supported the Japanese claim
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Japan and China Dispute a Pacific Islet
By NORIMITSU ONISHI
Published: July 10, 2005
TOKYO, July 9 - The smaller of the two is roughly the size of a twin bed and pokes only 2.9 inches out of the ocean. The larger, as big as a small bedroom perhaps, manages to rise up 6.3 inches.

The governor of Tokyo raised the Rising Sun over an islet in the Pacific.
Okinotori lies between Taiwan and American bases on Guam.
The Japanese government has already spent $600 million to keep the two barren islets in the western Pacific above water. Collectively called Okinotori and located 1,082 miles south of here, the islets have long allowed Tokyo to claim exclusive economic control over an ocean area larger than all of Japan.

But a threat potentially bigger than typhoons or global warming emerged last year when China challenged Japan's exclusive rights to the economically and militarily important waters, describing Okinotori as just a "rock."

Rock or island, Okinotori lies in a three-square-mile coral reef, most of which is under water even at low tide. A few decades ago, the area was dotted with half a dozen islets, but by 1989, only two were still visible. To protect its claim, the government in Tokyo encased the tiny protrusions - some 1,400 yards apart - in 82-foot-thick concrete, an effort that cost $280 million. Workers later covered the smaller islet with a $50 million titanium net to shield it from debris thrown up by the waves.

Finally, slits were made across the concrete casing, so it would comply with the United Nations law that an island be "surrounded by water."

As with some of Japan's other territorial disputes, a patriotic organization with right-wing roots has taken the lead in rebutting the Chinese challenge to Okinotori's status. The organization, the Nippon Foundation, has drawn short-term plans to build a lighthouse and long-term ones to increase the size of the islets by breeding micro-organisms known as foraminifera. The government last month installed a radar, repaired a heliport and placed an official address plaque, "1 Okinotori Island, Ogasawara Village, Tokyo."

Shintaro Ishihara, the tough-talking governor of Tokyo, under whose jurisdiction the islets fall, took reporters to Okinotori recently and raised the Japanese flag on it.

"That's an island," he said later. "A tiny island. Territory."

"Got a problem with that?" he said with a grin.

The Chinese do. In a meeting with Japanese officials last year, they said Okinotori could not be regarded as an island under the United Nations Law of the Sea.

According to the law, an "island is a naturally formed area of land, surrounded by water, which is above water at high tide." Furthermore, it adds, "rocks which cannot sustain human habitation or economic life of their own shall have no exclusive economic zone."

Okinotori lies at a militarily strategic point, midway between Taiwan and Guam, where American forces are based. Chinese vessels - whose increasing forays into this disputed exclusive economic zone have been drawing Japanese protests - are believed to be mapping the sea bottom over which Americans warships might pass on their way to Taiwan.

Washington supports Tokyo on the island versus rock issue. But a visit to Tokyo in February by John R. Bolton, then an under secretary of state, no doubt left the Japanese scratching their heads: With friends like these, who needs the Chinese?

An American reporter unable to pronounce Okinotori shima, which means "Offshore bird island," asked Mr. Bolton about "Otokono shima," a nonexistent island that would mean, "Man's island."

"The rock," Mr. Bolton said.

"Yeah, the rock," the reporter said.

No one has ever lived on Okinotori, and the islets have yet to show any sign of economic life. Workers are deployed twice a year to make repairs to the casing that sits atop Okinotori, and this year, after China's "rock" declaration, the Ministry of Land raised the budget for it to $5.6 million, from $2 million.

Last fall, fearing that inaction would mean losing out to China, the Nippon Foundation focused its considerable resources on the issue.

"If someone doesn't do it, this country would drag its feet and nothing would be decided," said Yoshihiko Yamada, who oversees the Okinotori project for the foundation.

The foundation led teams of researchers and reporters on two boat trips to Okinotori. Mr. Yamada, something of a romantic, waxed poetic about the "moonlit sea," the "mysterious natural environment" and the flyingfish jumping merrily around the ship.

"We made it into sashimi and it was delicious," he said.

The foundation now wants to build a $1 million lighthouse, which would constitute economic activity by guiding ships. "If the government can't do that, we are asking them to let us do it," Mr. Yamada said.

Other proposals include opening up Okinotori to divers or ecotourists. Masazumi Nagamitsu, an executive director at the foundation, is partial to an international coral research center and a 6,500-foot runway. An even more ambitious proposal would reverse the land erosion by attracting foraminifera - hard-shelled organisms that would attach themselves to the islet.

"Well, I wonder what their intention is with these proposals," said Katsunori Kadoyu, an official at the Ministry of Land, which administers Okinotori. He has yet to step foot on Okinotori but watches live images of it from a camera set up there in February. "It is a bit difficult to answer."

Part of the difficulty lies in the history of the Nippon Foundation, which was founded by Ryoichi Sasakawa, a World War II war-crimes suspect who built a gambling empire around motorboat racing.

Yukio Hori, a retired professor at Tohoku Bunka Gakuen University and author, said the government and nationalist groups often had a collaborative relationship. Those groups would typically push a project that government officials were hesitant to do openly.

In another territorial dispute with China, over the Senkaku Islands, Japan's largest right-wing group, Nihon Seinen-sha, built a lighthouse there 27 years ago and traveled to it regularly for repairs. After the government and Nihon Seinen-sha engaged in negotiations last year, the government finally took over control of the lighthouse early this year.

On Okinotori, the government may let the foundation build its lighthouse. Doing so on its own could be too provocative to the Chinese.

"In some aspect," Mr. Nagamitsu said, "we are doing things that the government finds a bit difficult to do, or that they are entrusting us to do, or hoping we would do.

Excellent report! A rare one from NYT on such matters.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Here's another fail SCS strategy from our fine feathered friends at The Diplomat. I'm at a lost to explain what additional US military assets in the SCS can do, since China isn't likely to alter its course, and Beijing knows Washington wouldn't fire the first shot, not for Vietnam and the Philippines at least.
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that the U.S. military is considering using aircraft and ships to directly contest Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea. The reports come amid a broader conversation that has been taking place in Washington over the inadequacies of the current U.S. response to China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, and what a more robust approach might look like.

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Skye_ZTZ_113

Junior Member
Registered Member
The inimitable Peter Lee makes his welcome return to ATOL and writes on the subject of the SCS.
Most of his premise is well established from previous writings, but he applies and shows consistency in relation to current circumstances.

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Thank you for posting this SampanViking. I can't stop laughing at this line in particular :'Unless we’re trying to guarantee the PRC’s energy & economic security. Which we’re not.' It does indeed show how ridiculous things are over there.
 
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