China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Blitzo]

Assuming military ships from the US and/or other countries do start to frequently enter what China considers its territorial waters, I wonder if we will see 056's or any of the various older frigates doing the trailing. I also wonder if we will see accelerated building of 056's or perhaps even additional units of 054A or its successor design.

Well the PLAN already has a fairly continuous but low key presence in SCS near its islands, usually older frigates. 056 would be a useful asset to rotate through SCS stations, but they probably can't do very long patrols longer than a week or two at most if they're supported by a tender or dock at an island for replenishment.
054As would definitely be a useful asset to have on station as well, and in the medium to long term the PLAN should be looking to permanently station a small task force worth of ships in the area.

Over on CDF I suggested that by 2020 PLAN should have enough oilers and modern DDGs and FFGs to deploy say, two DDGs and two FFGs and an AOR to SCS on a permanent basis like they do with their Aden deployments. It would only constitute 1/12th of their overall surface combatant fleet, and they'd gain valuable operating experience as well as normalizing their presence in the SCS region and can conduct exercises with friendly countries in the region, possibly contributing to anti piracy which is becoming a potential issue, showing the flag missions, and of course monitoring USN or any JMSDF ships that enter the area.
The DDGs and FFGs don't even all have to be 052C/Ds or 054As. An 052C/D accompanied by a 052B, 051C, 052 or even a Sov, along with a pair of frigates of an 054A along with another 054A, 054, or 053H3, would be a competent force but relatively low key to gradually get the region to accept greater PLAN presence in the area.

They could even potentially deploy another task force permanently to ECS and beyond in the same way, to start and get the world prepared for future larger scale and permanent deployments of PLAN forces around the region and globe.

 

[balance]

And, don't forget their coast guard ships that numbers in hundreds, if not mistaken.

 

[Ultra]

This is like what I said in the other thread:

I think this is getting serious. It has the potential of to become similar of that US spy plane

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back in 2001, except maybe this time, with a "gun-ho" strongman Xi, it could be the US planes getting shot down.


The stupid US move would be to send military jets over these area and get shot down. As US is an absolutely non-claimant over these area, it will be a shit-pie the US/Obama has to eat for the bad press if it does happen.

I am guessing the smart US tactical move will be what they did with the Russians - they will divert civilian airlines to overfly these islands (there were similar precedence - the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 and the Korean Air Lines Flight 007) as way to confuse and probe the air defence on the islands, and if the civilian jet get shot down, it is negative press for the chinese, if chinese did nothing, then US can increase the military surveillance and overflights over these area.

The chinese will have two choices - either make the area no-fly zone if they cannot discriminate the civilian flights from the american military overflight, or bring more and better assets into the area for better target discrimination and survelliance, which will mean more powerful radars, area defence ships (Type 052C/D) and more fighters guarding these air space, which will just increase the potential for conflict significantly as USN will in turn need to throw in even more assets into the area.

What Obama and the US administration is betting on is China's resolve - they believe Chinese will back down to avoid an all out conflict, but Xi is not Hu, and China is not China was 15 years ago.

 

[balance]

This is like what I said in the other thread:

I think this is getting serious. It has the potential of to become similar of that US spy plane

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

back in 2001, except maybe this time, with a "gun-ho" strongman Xi, it could be the US planes getting shot down.


The stupid US move would be to send military jets over these area and get shot down. As US is an absolutely non-claimant over these area, it will be a shit-pie the US/Obama has to eat for the bad press if it does happen.

I am guessing the smart US tactical move will be what they did with the Russians - they will divert civilian airlines to overfly these islands (there were similar precedence - the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 and the Korean Air Lines Flight 007) as way to confuse and probe the air defence on the islands, and if the civilian jet get shot down, it is negative press for the chinese, if chinese did nothing, then US can increase the military surveillance and overflights over these area.

The chinese will have two choices - either make the area no-fly zone if they cannot discriminate the civilian flights from the american military overflight, or bring more and better assets into the area for better target discrimination and survelliance, which will mean more powerful radars, area defence ships (Type 052C/D) and more fighters guarding these air space, which will just increase the potential for conflict significantly as USN will in turn need to throw in even more assets into the area.

What Obama and the US administration is betting on is China's resolve - they believe Chinese will back down to avoid an all out conflict, but Xi is not Hu, and China is not China was 15 years ago.

Shot down by the Chinese? I seriously doubt it. The ability is there, but I am not sure about the willingness. Media will paint this as Chinese aggression on US who flies in international zone. This will unite both neocons and citizens to support military action against China at all cost.

Trailing, harassing, warning, gathering intelligence, electronic harassment, cyberhacking will probably more appropriate, along with some punitive economic measures. You can also add giving Russia and Iran access to SCS to "harass" and "complicate" matters to US and local allies.

At the same time, install radars, SAM, park some fighters, send hundreds of coast guard ships, rotating destroyers and submarines, etc.

Do some dangerous maneuvers that almost cause accident, crash, fire, etc both in the air and on the sea.

See if this is fun for non-Chinese claimants.

 

[Blitzo]

This is like what I said in the other thread:

I think this is getting serious. It has the potential of to become similar of that US spy plane

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

back in 2001, except maybe this time, with a "gun-ho" strongman Xi, it could be the US planes getting shot down.


The stupid US move would be to send military jets over these area and get shot down. As US is an absolutely non-claimant over these area, it will be a shit-pie the US/Obama has to eat for the bad press if it does happen.

I am guessing the smart US tactical move will be what they did with the Russians - they will divert civilian airlines to overfly these islands (there were similar precedence - the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 and the Korean Air Lines Flight 007) as way to confuse and probe the air defence on the islands, and if the civilian jet get shot down, it is negative press for the chinese, if chinese did nothing, then US can increase the military surveillance and overflights over these area.

The chinese will have two choices - either make the area no-fly zone if they cannot discriminate the civilian flights from the american military overflight, or bring more and better assets into the area for better target discrimination and survelliance, which will mean more powerful radars, area defence ships (Type 052C/D) and more fighters guarding these air space, which will just increase the potential for conflict significantly as USN will in turn need to throw in even more assets into the area.

What Obama and the US administration is betting on is China's resolve - they believe Chinese will back down to avoid an all out conflict, but Xi is not Hu, and China is not China was 15 years ago.

I think you're overstretching the scenario a little bit.
For one, civilian flights over SCS and ECS are very common and China's been operating in that region for years now -- if they do decide to enforce a NFZ or an ADIZ the chances of an accidental shootdown of a civilian aircraft is very low. Not to mention China doesn't have the bases and tankers to support a round the clock air patrol of the entire SCS anyway, and trying to enforce airspace limits around their claimed islands would virtually equate to patrolling the entire SCS given the distances involved.

Deploying air defence ships is possible, but the chances of them actually firing in anger against a US military aircraft is quite low. Painting with radar may be possible, and that is the highest degree of escalation both sides will reach, probably with a bit of rhetoric and stern radio warnings on the side.


The chances of an actual firefight resulting from any US ships or aircraft entering what China claims as its airspace and maritime limit is very low, next to nonexistant. Remember, even if China doesn't actually shoot down US ships and aircraft that do enter what China claims as its territorial limits, the US can't exactly stop China from continuing to reclaim those islands. So while the US can challenge China's territorial limits and lines, they can't stop China's continuing reclamation and development efforts without using physical force of some degree.

In that sense, it is very possible that China will simply more vigilantly monitor and warn US ships and aircraft, but very likely accelerate development and reclamation efforts and seek to possibly fortify or to commercialize the islands as well, meaning the only real change the US can actually do to stop China is to blockade and strike at Chinese contracted vessels+dredgers+transports, CCG cutters, and escorting naval ships which are all involved in the reclamation process.
So in a way, it is the US whose hands are tied given their larger overarching intention is to prevent China from reclaiming and developing its claimed islands in the first place, and they can't really do that without creating a major diplomatic and/or military crisis.

 

[Ultra]

I think you're overstretching the scenario a little bit.
For one, civilian flights over SCS and ECS are very common and China's been operating in that region for years now -- if they do decide to enforce a NFZ or an ADIZ the chances of an accidental shootdown of a civilian aircraft is very low. Not to mention China doesn't have the bases and tankers to support a round the clock air patrol of the entire SCS anyway, and trying to enforce airspace limits around their claimed islands would virtually equate to patrolling the entire SCS given the distances involved.

I think the distance is not as far as you think - look at the picture below (ignore the retoric in white text - its just an image I found in google)

Both J-11 and Su-30 MKK has the combat radius of roughly around 1500 km and with inflight refueling it can extend the range by another 500 km (according to FAS).

And according to this map, there are a few air bases at Hainan island - they are:

Foluo Northeast Air Base :

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Haikou City Air Base :

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Jialaishi Air Base :

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Lingshui Air Base :

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That means, at 895 km, to their furtherest claim of the Spratly Islands, I think both fighters can more than cover it.

Deploying air defence ships is possible, but the chances of them actually firing in anger against a US military aircraft is quite low. Painting with radar may be possible, and that is the highest degree of escalation both sides will reach, probably with a bit of rhetoric and stern radio warnings on the side.

The chances of an actual firefight resulting from any US ships or aircraft entering what China claims as its airspace and maritime limit is very low, next to nonexistant. Remember, even if China doesn't actually shoot down US ships and aircraft that do enter what China claims as its territorial limits, the US can't exactly stop China from continuing to reclaim those islands. So while the US can challenge China's territorial limits and lines, they can't stop China's continuing reclamation and development efforts without using physical force of some degree.

In that sense, it is very possible that China will simply more vigilantly monitor and warn US ships and aircraft, but very likely accelerate development and reclamation efforts and seek to possibly fortify or to commercialize the islands as well, meaning the only real change the US can actually do to stop China is to blockade and strike at Chinese contracted vessels+dredgers+transports, CCG cutters, and escorting naval ships which are all involved in the reclamation process.

So in a way, it is the US whose hands are tied given their larger overarching intention is to prevent China from reclaiming and developing its claimed islands in the first place, and they can't really do that without creating a major diplomatic and/or military crisis.

I think you are right about this - that US cannot prevent China from continuing the construction and reclamation process without using physical force of occupying the island, which will just result in firefights and military crisis.

But there is anothe scenerio that might be plausible too - lately Philippine has been excercising close to the islands with the Japanese and the USN - maybe an embolden Philippine navy/marine might try to land on the island - which can result in firefight and that will result in the USN and maybe even JSDF to involve in this.

 

[PanAsian]

...
056 would be a useful asset to rotate through SCS stations, but they probably can't do very long patrols longer than a week or two at most if they're supported by a tender or dock at an island for replenishment.
...

And, don't forget their coast guard ships that numbers in hundreds, if not mistaken.

To keep the situation under control I don't see why China can't just go with low tension permanent deployments of 056 and CCG cutters in the SCS islands once the facilities are built. They should be sufficient for trailing passing foreign military vessels within the immediate vicinity of China's holdings.

Locally based transport ships will have to be civilian ferries in order to not appear or be aggressive. A dozen or two rotary and fixed-wing transport aircraft would make sense to be permanently deployed locally. A dozen or two interceptors such as the J-8, both low threat and expendable, may also make sense. Ground forces will probably only have point defense AA, amphibious IFV's, and APC's.

Heavier air and ground forces don't make sense to keep tensions low and are vulnerable if the situation gets hot due to the sitting duck nature of these islands, better to rely on rotating naval units and long range airpower from Hainan to provide heavier firepower if needed.

Naval reinforcements rotating (pretty much permanently) through the islands could consist of older frigates and destroyers paired with 054A/054A+'s for better air defense and ASW.

...
It has the potential of to become similar of that US spy plane

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back in 2001, except maybe this time, with a "gun-ho" strongman Xi, it could be the US planes getting shot down.
...

Shooting is not going to happen, but playing chicken and thereby accidentally downing aircraft by collision from one or more sides is definitely possible.

...
You can also add giving Russia and Iran access to SCS to "harass" and "complicate" matters to US and local allies.
...

I don't think China or any of those parties would be interested. Rather China will probably try to join the Singapore-Malaysia-Indonesia anti-piracy efforts. Russian presence is also more natural and needed in the north to balance out Japan.

 

[PanAsian]

Apparently the US challenges a slew of maritime territorial claims, ironically including some of the other SCS claimants', perhaps appropriately this is without the US being a party to UNCLOS.

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Industries | Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:04pm EDT
UPDATE 1-U.S. military challenged maritime claims of 19 countries in 2014

By David Alexander

(Reuters) - The U.S. military conducted freedom of navigation operations last year challenging maritime claims by 19 countries, from China to Argentina, asserting U.S. transit rights in defiance of efforts to impose restrictions, the Pentagon said on Wednesday.

It was the largest number of countries challenged in more than a decade, establishing the program's return to levels from before the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, when U.S. forces had to curtail operations because of other priorities, officials said.

The rise in operations was due in part to an increased focus on Latin America, where the U.S. military challenged the claims of half a dozen countries, including Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela, according to the Pentagon's annual Freedom of Navigation Report for 2014.

The military has regularly conducted operations disputing some of China's maritime claims in recent years and did so again in 2014. A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said none of those claims were related to Beijing's dredging to create islands out of reefs in the South China Sea.

The official said China has not attempted to assert maritime claims around those newly created islands and would not be able to do so under international law.

"Under international law an island is a naturally formed feature, and it specifically says in international law that an artificial island is not entitled to a territorial sea," the official said. Any effort to create a maritime zone around those former reefs would be "a legal impossibility," he said.

The United States carries out freedom of navigation operations by sending Navy ships and military aircraft into maritime areas that nearby countries have tried to restrict in some way. The operations aim to show that the international community has not accepted the restrictions.

Iran and the Philippines have been the most frequently challenged countries over the years, mainly because they sit astride heavily traveled sea lanes whose use they have tried to limit or govern.

Tehran has tried to restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz to signatories of the Law of the Sea Convention, which the United States has not endorsed. Manila has designated the Sulu Sea and other areas as archipelagic waters over which it has complete sovereignty, a claim Washington disputes.

Freedom of navigation operations, which began in 1979, are coordinated by the State and Defense departments and are meant to be consistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, even though Washington has not adopted it. (Reporting by David Alexander; editing by Gunna Dickson and Leslie Adler)

Link to the Freedom of Navigation report via USNI News:

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[balance]

But there is anothe scenerio that might be plausible too - lately Philippine has been excercising close to the islands with the Japanese and the USN - maybe an embolden Philippine navy/marine might try to land on the island - which can result in firefight and that will result in the USN and maybe even JSDF to involve in this.

That will be brinkmanship. If Philippines lands their troops in one of those islands, then China, who has more than 2 million of standing army, will land theirs, far outnumbering the Philippines. What will the Philippines do? Shooting them?

 

[tidalwave]

056 doesn't offer enough pyschological deterrence.

Maybe the 2 Sovremennys park there in Firey Cross , Mischief would offer bigger pyschological effect. 054A partnering up with 2 Sovs out there.

And you want to expose PLAN's best 052C/D outthere too much.

As soon as the runway up and running, park a few J11Bs outthere.

I expect there would be alot of muscle posing outthere soon now outside forces are coming in large numbers.