China's Perspective on Nuclear Deterrence

Jane's June 21, 2011 article on DF-41 ICBM

antiterror13 said:

Is it DF-41 or DF-31A ? if it is DF-41, what is the actual specs ?

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"DF-41 (CSS-X-10) (China)...

Type

Inter-continental range, road/rail mobile, solid propellant, single warhead or MIRV-capable ballistic missile.

Development

The Chinese are believed to have started the design and development of the Dong Feng-41 (DF-41) in 1986, with the operational requirement to have a solid-propellant, road mobile, ballistic missile with a range of 12,000 km to replace the CSS-4 (DF-5 and DF-5A) liquid-propellant missiles. The development for DF-41 is believed to be managed by the China Aerospace Sciences and Industry Corporation (CASIC), Beijing (it was the First Academy of the Ministry of Aerospace Industries). The flight test programme is managed by the 2nd Artillery Corps, based at the Wuzhai test centre in Shanxi province. There has been one reported ground test and a simulated cold launch in October 1999, but no test flights to date, although a test was reported to have been in preparation in September 2001. Original reports stated that DF-41 used the first two stages of the DF-31, with a lengthened third stage, but it is now believed that this description referred to the DF-31A, and that the DF-41 is a new design. It is believed that the NATO designator is CSS-X-10. Reports in 1996 suggested that DF-41 would have between two and nine Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) warheads, but it is possible that the initial build missiles will have provision for either a single warhead or up to 10 MIRV. In 2001 both rail-car and cross-country Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL) projects were noted for DF-31, and it is presumed that these might also be adapted later for DF-41. These launchers appeared to use a rail-car."

@ Martian,

I will leave it to you to decide whether America was safer prior to President Bush's withdrawal from the ABM treaty.

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There is a Chinese saying you might be interested: 人都是被逼出来的。

Roughly translated: Our achievement always originating from force handed.

In the game of MAD, it is rather sacry when one side trying to figures the other, without this saying in their mind. We really cann't afford mis-caculation, in any degree.

Did General Zhu Chenghu blurt out China's nuclear secret in 2005? Analysis.


China's DF-5 ICBM launch

I doubt that China will ever disclose the size of its nuclear arsenal. China wants to have it both ways. It wants to appear non-threatening. This is good for its corporate image.

On the other hand, it wants to keep the United States guessing and reap the benefit of deterrence. Also, China cannot reveal the actual size of its nuclear arsenal. Otherwise, it would have just volunteered to join U.S.-Russian disarmament talks.

However, it is possible to reach reasonable conclusions based on an analysis of open-source materials and obtain a sense of the size of China's nuclear arsenal. Let's take a close look at General Zhu Chenghu's outburst. Did he reveal China's nuclear secret in a moment of anger?

In July 2005, "a Chinese general has threatened to launch nuclear missiles at the United States, warning that hundreds of American cities could be destroyed." (See ) Is it plausible that China had the capability to destroy hundreds of American cities in 2005 or was General Zhu completely nuts?

In 1998, Richard D. Fisher Jr. (see ) was working "as Asian Studies Director at the Heritage Foundation" and he reported:

"Congress should question the confidence that the Clinton Administration and the defense intelligence community place on their own assessments of China's current missile force. Some reports that appeared in 1996 suggest the United States may be underestimating China's missile force. For example, during the 30th anniversary celebration of China's Second Artillery (its specialized missile force) in 1996, China's military press reported the completion of a decade-long project to build what is speculated to be a large missile base inside a mountain range.[27] A curious report that also appeared in 1996 estimates that China may have over 120 to 150 DF-5 missiles, which could be modified to carry as many as six one-megaton nuclear warheads.[28] If China is concealing ICBMs in a mountain base, then even marginal improvements to its ICBMs derived from U.S. technical know-how would contribute to a greater potential missile threat." (See )

If Richard Fisher is correct about the 1996 reports, China had approximately 150 DF-5 ICBMs hidden in the 5,000 km Underground Great Wall. This makes sense. No one would spend a fortune and ten years to build a massive 3,000-mile ICBM complex under a mountain range to hide only a small handful of ICBMs. (See [tt_news]=35846&tx_ttnews[backPid]=459&no_cache=1 or )

Nine years elapsed between Richard Fisher's reference to the 1996 estimate of 150 DF-5s and General Zhu's 2005 warning. Let's use a conservative estimate and say China built one new brigade each year, which is twelve DF-5 missiles. After nine years, China would have accumulated another 108 DF-5s by 2005.

General Zhu may have been referring to a total of 258 DF-5s hidden under thousands of miles of a Chinese mountain range. General Zhu may have been accurate in "warning that hundreds of American cities could be destroyed." While General Zhu's July 2005 outburst is useful for open-source analysis, he was unprofessional and deserved his public demotion in December 2005 (for possibly revealing a state secret). (See )

Anyway, it's now 2011 and the DF-5 ICBM story has taken another unexpected turn. In 1998, Richard Fisher wrote: "A curious report that also appeared in 1996 estimates that China may have over 120 to 150 DF-5 missiles, which could be modified to carry as many as six one-megaton nuclear warheads." (See )

In September 2010, Richard Fisher reported: "This analyst has been told by Asian military sources that the DF-31A already carries three warheads and that one deployed DF-5B carries five or six warheads." (See )

From 2005 to 2011, China probably built another 66 DF-5 ICBMs. China's current total inventory of DF-5s is probably around 324 (e.g. 258 + 66 = 324). 324 DF-5s with each missile carrying "six one-megaton nuclear warheads" provide a nuclear deterrent of 1,944 one-megaton warheads.

In conclusion, it doesn't really matter how many more DF-31As (with 3 MIRVs) or DF-41s (with up to 10 MIRVs) that China builds. The Chinese most likely have had a substantial nuclear deterrent by 1996 or 2005.

Re: Did General Zhu Chenghu blurt out China's nuclear secret in 2005? Analysis.

I don't believe China has such massive DF-5/A/B ... but I have been wondering for some years now, why PRC built such massive 3,000-mile ICBM complex under a mountain range. I don't believe PRC only has 20 DF-5/A/B either. Is it possible the massive ICBM complex is also used for preparation of nuclear war to accommodate Chinese people ?

In practice, if China had wanted to dramatically increase her nuclear arms, would she be able to do it? For example, does she have sufficient supply of nuclear raw materials to build the missiles?

"China is estimated to mine 1,200 tons of uranium annually"

Thesisus said:

In practice, if China had wanted to dramatically increase her nuclear arms, would she be able to do it? For example, does she have sufficient supply of nuclear raw materials to build the missiles?

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China has plenty of uranium.



"Uranium Mining

China is estimated to mine 1,200 tons of uranium annually and is expected to stay at this level of production for the near future. China's first eight uranium mines were fully operational beginning in 1962-1965. Over the years, China has established a total of about 26 major uranium mines. Since the beginning of the opening and reform process, China's uranium mining industry has undergone extensive reorganization. China has reduced output and closed inefficient mines resulting in a reduction of personnel from 45,000 in 1984 to 8,500 in 1999. As part of its efforts to improve efficiency, China is focusing on in-situ and heap leach technologies. Improvements in management and technology have led to uranium mining facilities becoming three to four times more efficient.

China has traditionally located uranium processing facilities at or near uranium mines. China's "backbone" of uranium mining and metallurgy has traditionally been located in Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Hunan Provinces. However, in recent years uranium exploration has been focused on northwest and north China. There is potential for expanding the uranium mining facility at Yili Basin, Xinjiang where in-situ leach capacity is expected to reach approximately 400 tU/year. New production centers have been opened at the the Yining in-situ leaching facility, the Lantian heap leaching facility and the Benxi mine.

The China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) reported that since 1954, China has located uranium deposits in more than 200 mining sites. China has an estimated 57,000 tons of uranium resources in the south and is exploring in the northwestern regions for further deposits. New uranium deposits have recently been discovered in Inner Mongolia and in Xinjiang Province.

Mr. Lu Youlin is director of the bureau of mining and metallurgy for CNNC.

The OECD and IAEA estimate China's uranium resources at 64,000 tons: (chart)"

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"China finds 30,000 T uranium deposit -State TV
Sat Dec 4, 2010 10:02am GMT

Dec 4 (Reuters) - BEIJING Dec 4 (Reuters) - China has found a major uranium deposit in Inner Mongolia holding an estimated 30,000 tonnes of the metal, state television reported on Saturday.

The discovery in China's mineral-rich Ordos region will help ensure the domestic supply of uranium for its expanding nuclear industry in coming decades, Zhang Jindai, chief geologist with China National Nuclear Corp, was quoted as saying by China's central television."

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"China discovers uranium deposit in Xinjiang
By Jon Nones
20 Feb 2008 at 11:23 AM

According to a short article by Commodity Online, China on Wednesday announced the discovery of 10,000-tonne level leaching sandstone-type uranium deposit in the northwest of the country.

According to an official statement from China's Mineral Ministry, Chinese geologists took 17 years to make this breakthrough discovery at Yili basin, which is in the northwestern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

The deposit could produce more than $40 billion worth of uranium, coal and associated minerals, with coal resources totaling more than 4 billion tonnes."

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"China discovers more coal, oil, uranium and lithium
January 17, 2011

Chinese geologists have detected "super-thick" oil and gas-bearing stratums in the northern part of the South China Sea and identified 38 offshore oil and gas-bearing basins. The outskirts of Songliao Basin in Northeast China, Yin'e Basin in North China and Qiangtang Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have also been found to have rich oil and gas resources.

192.7 billion tons of coal resources have been found in Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. China will be using 3.2 to 4.2 billion tons of coal per year from now until 2015 So the new discovery would provide China with about 40 years of coal supply.

Four 10,000-ton sandstone-type uranium mines have been located in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. By 2020, China will be using about 20,000 tons of uranium per year using current once through reactors."

Aircraft carrier or ICBMs come first?

antiterror13 said:

I don't believe China has such massive DF-5/A/B ... but I have been wondering for some years now, why PRC built such massive 3,000-mile ICBM complex under a mountain range. I don't believe PRC only has 20 DF-5/A/B either. Is it possible the massive ICBM complex is also used for preparation of nuclear war to accommodate Chinese people ?

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If you were a PLA general, would you ask your government to fund a prestigious toy (e.g. show the flag) like an aircraft carrier or would you demand they provide the funds to build another 100 ICBMs first (to defend the homeland)? The preparation of the Shi Lang for sea trials speaks volumes about the preparedness of China's military for a thermonuclear war.

We can only reasonably infer the PLA generals have satisfied all of their ICBM needs in deterring the United States and they're now moving on to aircraft carrier projects with much lower priority.


A launch silo for China's DF-5 ICBM

@ Martian,

"We like your president," Ji told Chung before passing a check for $300,000 across the table. "We want him re-elected."

Johnny Chung was certainly in no position to disagree with Ji ?especially if he wanted to see his daughter again.

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I believe any frequent visitors to SDF would have no doubt of your credibility, but some of the stuff you quote, have too much side-effects. Take the above quote for example (in the "Shakeup of Top Chinese Military Command" link.) I guess the only point you try to make is that "let's take Gen. Zhu's statement for account, and estimate the warheads number...", but people simply will, divert more attentions to some novel, once they clicked the link. (I did)

You can simply cite less next time, you have your good reputation around here anyway. - That's all I want to say.

Should China join U.S.-Russia arms-reduction talks?

If Major General Zhu Chenghu was telling the truth in 2005, when he threatened to nuke hundreds of American cities, then China arguably is getting close to qualifying for arms-reduction talks. Of course, the Chinese will avoid the question of General Zhu's outburst and correctly claim its arsenal is much smaller than the number of American deployed warheads PLUS stockpile and reserve.

According to this Chinese reasoning, they will continue to enjoy the freedom of increasing their nuclear forces as long as they fall under the ceiling of American deployed warheads, stockpile, and reserve of 9,983 nuclear warheads. (See )

From the Chinese perspective, they should continue to modernize and expand their nuclear forces until they reach the American level of 9,983 total warheads sometime in the distant future.

Re: Should China join U.S.-Russia arms-reduction talks?

i don't get whats the difference between nuking a city once, and nuking city 10 times. Having too many nukes is a waste of funding and resources, US and Russia have way too many nukes to justify themselves. Sure they will say for their nations security, but you don't need that many. Also you do realize how mountainous China is, plenty of secret nuke silos that possibly could be hiding. I really doubt China nuke force is that small, maybe not huge, but sufficient enough.