China's Perspective on Nuclear Deterrence

Red___Sword

Junior Member
Martian, likes your professional debates.

Although the sources states "China is THAT GOOD now" (which is our focus here), but again they do this "China can not do this on her own, they must have utilized stolen tech! They must!" psycho anytime possible (which is not our focus here).

Blade, I appreciate your "more respect than phobia", as if (if only) I am some MOFA officials. But let's down to ground, even without any intention to paint China as a threat like the Soviets could possess - China don't have a comparable geo political influence like what Soviets did (I assure you, I wish she had).

China can not overthrow a renegade govt which, out of their own interest, do not fall in line with China's grand strategy; China can not hammer her mis-behaved neighbors as freely as Soviet did; When Tu-95 fleets painted with CCCP red stars parade themselves across Bering strait right in front of NORAD's nose, EP3 painted with star and strips ram August First Star out of sky, as it see fit; To station BMs on Cuba, and Soviet is enough to start WWIII, to station ABMs on Taiwan, all China can do is "objection"; Toying with 9000 tanks mainly constituted by T55s T62s, CCCP makes the rest of the world up at night, squeeze every last bit of juice out of her 6 million red guards, China pretent to be able to asleep at night and keeps her border...

Doubt the "reach" of today's Russia's military might all you want, but China haven't throw up a weight the world fears yet.

This thread is about nuclear deterrence, like I trying to say, nuclear capability is one thing none can overlook with. The dead Soviet's anewed body still radiates fears to the world, while just few pages ago, people still trying to exam China's "credibility" to survive this jungle yet.

China is good, ain't THAT good. Emphasis wishful thinking (which being considered as foothold) of "China can change the game rule in no time" can be acadamicly / metaphysically consider as Sinophobia, though no intention to bash from both side.
 

HKSDU

Junior Member
Emotionally I agree with you, but nuclear deterrence do not exist if people do not "count" the warhead and making decisions accordingly.

It is cold yet true that people making body counts to consider how serious damage your opponent can make. IF (a BIG if) the deterrence do not stands, it would naturally comes to a situation that some country might have an upper hand at the post-nuclear-exchange. That POSSIBILITY gives the decision makers some room for the POSSIBILITY of wilder demands (more meaner demands) during any kind of threatning to his conterpart.

This somewhat do not interfere with the MAD strategy, for most of time, decision makers from any side, are sane (vs. insane) people, they do not intent to make MAD happens - they just trying to play words and demand more in OTHER political dealings - warhead counts adds to the weight of those words.

At least the current world is still as "sane" as this.

PS: i.e, Iran surly have no crediable "nuclear deterrence" to America when if the situation gose to toe to toe... but Iran surly having some heavier weights carried in their warning words, compare to some "banana country", right?

China at least make MAD effects on her own, otherwise don't bother to talk some certain sensitive topics with US (or anyother primary player), for they don't bother to talk to you, as of the way they are talking now (smooth talk).

A not suitable but helps understanding example: When MAD stands, US won't sacrifice herself for "saving" Taiwan, or Tibat, or South China Sea ally nation... or whatever makes MAD actually happens. (of course vice verse)

I agree. As you can tell from my post, that I hate the invention of nuclear weapons.
 

Red___Sword

Junior Member
I agree. As you can tell from my post, that I hate the invention of nuclear weapons.

Rationally speaking, I believe scietific progress is nothing can be stopped by "wishful thinking".

Take things into funny perspective, the recent NG channel (or something?) made a documentry about nuclear threat, called "Count down to Zero" -

(ed2k://|file|[%E5%80%92%E6%95%B0%E5%88%B0%E9%9B%B6].Countdown.to.Zero.2010.LiMiTED.720p.BluRay.x264-PELLUCiD.mkv|4661053871|D6B8AA5481306D0415C19BA1B244CF60|/) - Webmaster, please advice is this allowed?

- that, have some footage showing interview with some retired politicians from some neclear creditable country: UK, Russia, Pakistan, Iran... and of course US. - when they are retired, they all face the camera, full of sentimental faces, stating "the optimistic number of the world having nuclear warhead, is zero."

I recong retired people DOSE holds no liability to their words now it seems...
 
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In4ser

Junior Member
Re: China successfully tested its version of the W-88 warhead between 1992 and 1995

China tested a series of advanced thermonuclear warheads from 1992 to 1996 (see
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). In 1995, "American experts analyzing [seismic data of] Chinese nuclear test results found similarities to America's most advanced miniature warhead, the W-88."

After the 1992 to 1996 thermonuclear tests, China knows with certainty that its version of the W-88 warhead is fully functional. China is not relying on computer simulations. China's most-advanced thermonuclear weapon designs were tested for four years to their satisfaction.

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"China...Nuclear Secrets...
By JAMES RISEN and JEFF GERTH
March 6, 1999

WASHINGTON -- Working with nuclear secrets stolen from a U.S. government laboratory, China has made a leap in the development of nuclear weapons: the miniaturization of its bombs, according to administration officials.

Until recently, China's nuclear weapons designs were a generation behind those of the United States, largely because Beijing was unable to produce small warheads that could be launched from a single missile at multiple targets and form the backbone of a modern nuclear force.

But by the mid-1990s, China had built and tested such small bombs, a breakthrough that officials say was accelerated by the theft of U.S. nuclear secrets from Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico.

The espionage is believed to have occurred in the mid-1980s, officials said. But it was not detected until 1995, when American experts analyzing Chinese nuclear test results found similarities to America's most advanced miniature warhead, the W-88. (article continues)"

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"The W88 is a United States thermonuclear warhead, with an estimated yield of 475 kiloton (kt), and is small enough to fit on MIRVed missiles. The W88 was designed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the 1970s. In 1999 the director of Los Alamos who had presided over its design described it as "The most advanced U.S. nuclear warhead."[1]

The Trident II SLBM can be armed with up to 8 W88 (475 kt) warheads (Mark 5) or 8 W76 (100 kt) warheads (Mark 4), but it is limited to 4 warheads under SORT."
I remember hearing about Reagan providing W88s to China b/c Washington feared China did not have a strong enough deterrence against the Soviet Union. In fact I think Assassin's Mace said something along the same lines: http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/mem...ring-extremely-difficult-5033.html#post120090
 

bochen280

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Re: China successfully tested its version of the W-88 warhead between 1992 and 1995

There has never been a nation that had to face the prospects of nuclear retaliation. Japan couldn't fight back in 1945 because it didn't have nukes. That doesn't count. I'm saying if today US surprise first strike attacks China via nukes and wipe out CCP and all major Chinese cities, what is to guarantee China will actually retaliate? THAT IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. And if they don't retaliate (for whatever reason(s)) or if such retaliation was only minimally effective, then why would the US not attack? Think about it. Population is the problem. Peak oil is a population problem. It IS a zero sum game. The nukes are already there, those are sunken costs whether or not they will ever be used, and this is the most quickly and effective "bang for buck" and the ONLY way US could totally defeat China militaristically and hence economically in short order... Why do you think US is building missile defense in earnest now and trying to persuade Russia to disarm? If China doesn't built a defensive 'deadhand' tied to some sort of 'doomsday machine' or increase its SLBM by orders of magnitude then it is practically inviting US to attack... I mean after Syria and Iran ... China will be next if it doesn't watch out.

That is the conventional wisdom US and China is interconnected and both "need each other" ... but what about a "black swan event"? Everyone (including CCP) believes America is not that reckless and wouldn't instigate a massive nation vs nation war or nuke war with China anytime soon... But Peak Oil changes the whole picture.... If magically the population of India and China could be deleted like the inverse of how the Feds make money on a computer via a digital bookkeeping entry, then "Peak Oil" would be pushed back 10 - 20 years! Gas would go down to $1.50 and the US can party like it is 1999 again....

The US still has 10,000+ active nukes while China is reported to have less than 100 strategic nuclear warheads actually capable of even reaching the U.S. (most of China's limited amount of 400 nukes are tactical nukes of the short range type that are aimed at Russia, India, and closer nations, etc) ... Now America is building National Missile Defense/ Ballistic Missile Defense systems that will negate China's minimal deterrence stance and obliterate its NFU (no first use) policy. China does not possess a credible deterrence against a sudden US first strike or decapitation strike, and since the Chinese have vowed against launching on warning and will only launch after being attacked, that is practically inviting the US to flatten China and take out the CCP.

If America truly believes it can successfully do a nuclear first-strike depreciation of the CCP in China, then why wouldn't' they? It is now or never, use it or lose it... because later on US will be poorer and Chinese military will be stronger than they are right now (relatively speaking...) so if there ever was a chance to pull something like this off with acceptable loses (say Chinese retaliation strike hits only two large cities, face it, nuclear war is a PERCENTAGES game) then it would be now... China would never strike US first because that would be political, economic and militaristic suicide... but US stands to benefit a lot from a surprise first strike... and right now, it seems IF they are successful (relatively speaking) then the pros would outweigh the cons. Maybe there is some truth to Dec 21 2012? Also, realistically, if US nuke strikes China and knocks out entire CCP, do you think a lone Chinese submarine commander would even give the order to launch in retaliation? I think not.... I think he would probably defect to the US for chance to live American dream like what the Russians did in Hunt for Red October. I don't think China has a credible deterrence against US. The Great Wall didn't work the first time around, what makes them think the underground Great Wall is going to work this time around? Deterrence only works if the opponent KNOWS you possess the deterrent AND he BELIEVES it is credible. It makes no sense for China to secretly increase its nuclear deterrence... and as far as publicly knowledge, for a nation of China's stature, its nuclear deterrence is at a pathetically minimal level. This just doesn't make sense. Why isn't China building more launch range strategic thermonuclear MIRVs and SLBM to protect itself against such an existential Western threat?

defcondeterrence com
 
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icbeodragon

Junior Member
Re: China successfully tested its version of the W-88 warhead between 1992 and 1995

There has never been a nation that had to face the prospects of nuclear retaliation. Japan couldn't fight back in 1945 because it didn't have nukes. That doesn't count. I'm saying if today US surprise first strike attacks China via nukes and wipe out CCP and all major Chinese cities, what is to guarantee China will actually retaliate? THAT IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. And if they don't retaliate (for whatever reason(s)) or if such retaliation was only minimally effective, then why would the US not attack? Think about it. Population is the problem. Peak oil is a population problem. It IS a zero sum game. The nukes are already there, those are sunken costs whether or not they will ever be used, and this is the most quickly and effective "bang for buck" and the ONLY way US could totally defeat China militaristically and hence economically in short order... Why do you think US is building missile defense in earnest now and trying to persuade Russia to disarm? If China doesn't built a defensive 'deadhand' tied to some sort of 'doomsday machine' or increase its SLBM by orders of magnitude then it is practically inviting US to attack... I mean after Syria and Iran ... China will be next if it doesn't watch out.

That is the conventional wisdom US and China is interconnected and both "need each other" ... but what about a "black swan event"? Everyone (including CCP) believes America is not that reckless and wouldn't instigate a massive nation vs nation war or nuke war with China anytime soon... But Peak Oil changes the whole picture.... If magically the population of India and China could be deleted like the inverse of how the Feds make money on a computer via a digital bookkeeping entry, then "Peak Oil" would be pushed back 10 - 20 years! Gas would go down to $1.50 and the US can party like it is 1999 again....

The US still has 10,000+ active nukes while China is reported to have less than 100 strategic nuclear warheads actually capable of even reaching the U.S. (most of China's limited amount of 400 nukes are tactical nukes of the short range type that are aimed at Russia, India, and closer nations, etc) ... Now America is building National Missile Defense/ Ballistic Missile Defense systems that will negate China's minimal deterrence stance and obliterate its NFU (no first use) policy. China does not possess a credible deterrence against a sudden US first strike or decapitation strike, and since the Chinese have vowed against launching on warning and will only launch after being attacked, that is practically inviting the US to flatten China and take out the CCP.

If America truly believes it can successfully do a nuclear first-strike depreciation of the CCP in China, then why wouldn't' they? It is now or never, use it or lose it... because later on US will be poorer and Chinese military will be stronger than they are right now (relatively speaking...) so if there ever was a chance to pull something like this off with acceptable loses (say Chinese retaliation strike hits only two large cities, face it, nuclear war is a PERCENTAGES game) then it would be now... China would never strike US first because that would be political, economic and militaristic suicide... but US stands to benefit a lot from a surprise first strike... and right now, it seems IF they are successful (relatively speaking) then the pros would outweigh the cons. Maybe there is some truth to Dec 21 2012? Also, realistically, if US nuke strikes China and knocks out entire CCP, do you think a lone Chinese submarine commander would even give the order to launch in retaliation? I think not.... I think he would probably defect to the US for chance to live American dream like what the Russians did in Hunt for Red October. I don't think China has a credible deterrence against US. The Great Wall didn't work the first time around, what makes them think the underground Great Wall is going to work this time around? Deterrence only works if the opponent KNOWS you possess the deterrent AND he BELIEVES it is credible. It makes no sense for China to secretly increase its nuclear deterrence... and as far as publicly knowledge, for a nation of China's stature, its nuclear deterrence is at a pathetically minimal level. This just doesn't make sense. Why isn't China building more launch range strategic thermonuclear MIRVs and SLBM to protect itself against such an existential Western threat?

All I can say is... huh? :confused:

The US has brought its nuclear stockpile down to around 5,000 nukes, of which roughly half are operational
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What is your argument? The warmongering US is going to pre-emptively nuke China? A possible conflict scenario? China should build 10,000 nukes?, China is no match for the US?

Whatever your argument is, it uses alot of if's, looks very shaky.
 

Lezt

Junior Member
Re: China successfully tested its version of the W-88 warhead between 1992 and 1995

There has never been a nation that had to face the prospects of nuclear retaliation. Japan couldn't fight back in 1945 because it didn't have nukes. That doesn't count. I'm saying if today US surprise first strike attacks China via nukes and wipe out CCP and all major Chinese cities, what is to guarantee China will actually retaliate? THAT IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. And if they don't retaliate (for whatever reason(s)) or if such retaliation was only minimally effective, then why would the US not attack? Think about it. Population is the problem. Peak oil is a population problem. It IS a zero sum game. The nukes are already there, those are sunken costs whether or not they will ever be used, and this is the most quickly and effective "bang for buck" and the ONLY way US could totally defeat China militaristically and hence economically in short order... Why do you think US is building missile defense in earnest now and trying to persuade Russia to disarm? If China doesn't built a defensive 'deadhand' tied to some sort of 'doomsday machine' or increase its SLBM by orders of magnitude then it is practically inviting US to attack... I mean after Syria and Iran ... China will be next if it doesn't watch out.

That is the conventional wisdom US and China is interconnected and both "need each other" ... but what about a "black swan event"? Everyone (including CCP) believes America is not that reckless and wouldn't instigate a massive nation vs nation war or nuke war with China anytime soon... But Peak Oil changes the whole picture.... If magically the population of India and China could be deleted like the inverse of how the Feds make money on a computer via a digital bookkeeping entry, then "Peak Oil" would be pushed back 10 - 20 years! Gas would go down to $1.50 and the US can party like it is 1999 again....

The US still has 10,000+ active nukes while China is reported to have less than 100 strategic nuclear warheads actually capable of even reaching the U.S. (most of China's limited amount of 400 nukes are tactical nukes of the short range type that are aimed at Russia, India, and closer nations, etc) ... Now America is building National Missile Defense/ Ballistic Missile Defense systems that will negate China's minimal deterrence stance and obliterate its NFU (no first use) policy. China does not possess a credible deterrence against a sudden US first strike or decapitation strike, and since the Chinese have vowed against launching on warning and will only launch after being attacked, that is practically inviting the US to flatten China and take out the CCP.

If America truly believes it can successfully do a nuclear first-strike depreciation of the CCP in China, then why wouldn't' they? It is now or never, use it or lose it... because later on US will be poorer and Chinese military will be stronger than they are right now (relatively speaking...) so if there ever was a chance to pull something like this off with acceptable loses (say Chinese retaliation strike hits only two large cities, face it, nuclear war is a PERCENTAGES game) then it would be now... China would never strike US first because that would be political, economic and militaristic suicide... but US stands to benefit a lot from a surprise first strike... and right now, it seems IF they are successful (relatively speaking) then the pros would outweigh the cons. Maybe there is some truth to Dec 21 2012? Also, realistically, if US nuke strikes China and knocks out entire CCP, do you think a lone Chinese submarine commander would even give the order to launch in retaliation? I think not.... I think he would probably defect to the US for chance to live American dream like what the Russians did in Hunt for Red October. I don't think China has a credible deterrence against US. The Great Wall didn't work the first time around, what makes them think the underground Great Wall is going to work this time around? Deterrence only works if the opponent KNOWS you possess the deterrent AND he BELIEVES it is credible. It makes no sense for China to secretly increase its nuclear deterrence... and as far as publicly knowledge, for a nation of China's stature, its nuclear deterrence is at a pathetically minimal level. This just doesn't make sense. Why isn't China building more launch range strategic thermonuclear MIRVs and SLBM to protect itself against such an existential Western threat?

All I would say is,

in nuclear war between country A and B; MAD is in effect if country A require a first strike to garuntee the destruction of country B is so severe that the nuclear fall out will kill country A.

This is what China and the USA is at right now, for argument sake, 200 nuclear warhead will wipe China off the face of the earth and prevent her from retaliating with her 400 some warheads. that 200 nukes will create a nuclear winter sufficient to kill off most life on earth. If the USA launches less warheads, then you can pretty much be damned that China will land a few nuke on US soil -> MAD is served; and therefore China do not need more nukes.
 

barackobambamaa

Just Hatched
Registered Member
Re: China successfully tested its version of the W-88 warhead between 1992 and 1995

china should have nuclear infinity, so that in a nuclear attack by the U.S. and China do not have the ability to retaliate, enough china nuclear explosions in china stock itself or anywhere else, but must have a blast radiation effects that can spend their entire life on earth, so there is no a living creature that can live on earth from the north pole to south pole and from east to west, the whole life be destroyed, from the smallest creatures such as ants brightest human beings to perish no one alive, until no one was left alive, that number that nuclear should be owned by China, with new so no one would dare to attack China with nuclear weapons and become a lasting peace for the insurance world, except the American people are tired of living, to die by the effects of nuclear radiation
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Re: China successfully tested its version of the W-88 warhead between 1992 and 1995

china should have nuclear infinity, so that in a nuclear attack by the U.S. and China do not have the ability to retaliate, enough china nuclear explosions in china stock itself or anywhere else, but must have a blast radiation effects that can spend their entire life on earth, so there is no a living creature that can live on earth from the north pole to south pole and from east to west, the whole life be destroyed, from the smallest creatures such as ants brightest human beings to perish no one alive, until no one was left alive, that number that nuclear should be owned by China, with new so no one would dare to attack China with nuclear weapons and become a lasting peace for the insurance world, except the American people are tired of living, to die by the effects of nuclear radiation

I don't think you have any knowledge what nuke is, unfortunately
 
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