China's Perspective on Nuclear Deterrence

Mount St. Helens events and Japanese earthquake in megatons

1. Mount St. Helens' magnitude 5.1 earthquake was 0.5 megaton. (See ; magnitude 5.0 is equivalent to 0.476 megatons or 476 metric tons of TNT)

2. Mount St. Helens' volcanic eruption released 24 megatons of energy to blow away part of the mountain.


"For the 1980 eruption, .... The St. Helens May 18 eruption released 24 megatons of thermal energy; it ejected more ..."

3. The Japanese magnitude 9.0 Sendai earthquake was 476 megatons. (See )

Does China already possess an "AGM-129A class" stealth cruise missile?

The United States has retired its most advanced stealth cruise missile, the AGM-129A. The more interesting question is whether the Chinese have an equivalent stealth cruise missile in their arsenal.

I suspect the Chinese already possess a Chinese version of the AGM-129A nuclear-capable stealth cruise missile. A stealth cruise missile is much easier to design and build than a complex manned stealth fighter. Indeed, "the first [AGM-129A] test missile flew in July 1985." Five years later, the first flight of the YF-22 (i.e. F-22 Raptor stealth fighter prototype) was on September 29, 1990.

Using the American experience as a reference, an advanced stealth cruise missile tends to precede the more complex manned stealth fighter by five years. The first confirmed flight of China's J-20 Mighty Dragon stealth fighter was on January 11, 2011. The Chinese should have the technological capability and may have developed an "AGM-129A class" stealth cruise missile in 2006.

At the 60th anniversary parade in 2009, China unveiled its DF-21D ASBM (i.e. anti-ship ballistic missile) as an asymmetric weapon. Also, we have seen China's successful anti-satellite shoot-down (i.e. ASAT test in 2007). I believe the Chinese version of the AGM-129A is another of China's "Assassin's Mace" weapons. "The US Navy has no known defense against these weapons."


America's stealthy AGM-129A, the "most modern cruise missile in the U.S. nuclear arsenal," in flight. The U.S. "Air Force acknowledged the retirement decision" of the AGM-129A under the "U.S.-Russia arms reduction deal signed in Moscow in May 2002."



"USAF to scrap AGM-129 stealth cruise missile
Seattlepi.com ^ | March 7, 2007 | ROBERT BURNS

Posted on Thursday, March 08, 2007 11:30:44 AM by sukhoi-30mki

Wednesday, March 7, 2007 · Last updated 7:15 p.m. PT

Air Force scraps stealth missile fleet

By ROBERT BURNS AP MILITARY WRITER

WASHINGTON -- The Air Force said Wednesday it will retire the most modern cruise missile in the U.S. nuclear arsenal, a "stealth" weapon developed in the 1980s with the ability to evade detection by Soviet radars.

Known as the Advanced Cruise Missile, the weapon is carried by the B-52 bomber and was designed to attack heavily defended sites. It is the most capable among a variety of air-launched nuclear weapons built during the Cold War that remain in the U.S. inventory even as the Pentagon is reducing its overall nuclear arms stockpile.

The Air Force had said as recently as February 2006 that it expected to keep the missile active until 2030.

If the retirement is carried out as planned, the Advanced Cruise Missile will be the first group of U.S. nuclear weapons to be scrapped since the last of the Air Force's 50 MX Peacekeeper land-based missiles was retired in September 2005.

The decision to retire the Advanced Cruise Missile fleet has not been publicly announced. It was brought to light by Hans M. Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists. He noticed that funds for the program were cut in the Air Force budget request for 2008, and that no money is budgeted for it beyond 2008; when he inquired, the Air Force acknowledged the retirement decision.

An Air Force spokeswoman, Maj. Morshe Araujo, confirmed it on Wednesday. She and other Air Force public affairs officials were unable to provide additional details, including the rationale for the decision.

Araujo indicated that the retirement was part of a "balanced force reduction" being carried out to reduce the number of U.S. strategic nuclear weapons to between 1,700 and 2,200 by Dec. 31, 2012, as required under a U.S.-Russia arms reduction deal signed in Moscow in May 2002.

The treaty does not require that any specific group of nuclear weapons be retired, only that the total number in the U.S. and Russian arsenals be cut to the prescribed range of 1,700-2,200. The Russians still have a nuclear-tipped cruise missile in active service, according to Robert S. Norris, an expert in American, Soviet and Chinese nuclear weapons.

The decision to get rid of the Advanced Cruise Missile comes amid U.S. efforts to modernize what remains of the nuclear arsenal, even as it presses Iran and North Korea to abandon their nuclear programs."

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AGM-129A stealth design characteristics


AGM-129A manufactured at General Dynamics


Advanced Cruise Missile (AGM-129) mounted on B-52


"The B-52H bomber can carry up to six AGM-129A missiles on each of two external pylons for a total of 12 per aircraft. Originally, an additional 8 ACMs could be carried internally in the B-52 on a Common Strategic Rotary Launcher, for a total of 20 per aircraft. The AGM-129A provides the bomber the ability to attack multiple targets without penetrating an air defense system."

Re: Does China already possess an "AGM-129A class" stealth cruise missile?

Martian said:

The United States has retired its most advanced stealth cruise missile, the AGM-129A. The more interesting question is whether the Chinese have an equivalent stealth cruise missile in their arsenal.

I suspect the Chinese already possess a Chinese version of the AGM-129A nuclear-capable stealth cruise missile. A stealth cruise missile is much easier to design and build than a complex manned stealth fighter. Indeed, "the first [AGM-129A] test missile flew in July 1985." Five years later, the first flight of the YF-22 (i.e. F-22 Raptor stealth fighter prototype) was on September 29, 1990.

Using the American experience as a reference, an advanced stealth cruise missile tends to precede the more complex manned stealth fighter by five years. The first confirmed flight of China's J-20 Mighty Dragon stealth fighter was on January 11, 2011. The Chinese should have the technological capability and may have developed an "AGM-129A class" stealth cruise missile in 2006.

At the 60th anniversary parade in 2009, China unveiled its DF-21D ASBM (i.e. anti-ship ballistic missile) as an asymmetric weapon. Also, we have seen China's successful anti-satellite shoot-down (i.e. ASAT test in 2007). I believe the Chinese version of the AGM-129A is another of China's "Assassin's Mace" weapons. "The US Navy has no known defense against these weapons."

Click to expand...

Hmm did they unveil it during the 2009 parade? I forget what labels they gave the DF-21 variants... but they certainly did not come out and say "hey this is our AShBM".

I wouldn't place a specific date on when China could've started developing such a weapon either... A direct linear comparison to the US procurement of such weapons is flawed imho.

I suspect China may be in advanced development of a similar stealthy cruise missile. Even Pakistan has built a missile called Ra'ad which has stealthy characteristics. But I believe such weapons are not way too different than more conventionally shaped missiles either, and I wonder if they are significantly more expensive as well, which may explain why China hasn't endeavoured to develop such a missile yet.

Also I have to point out this statement:

I believe the Chinese version of the AGM-129A is another of China's "Assassin's Mace" weapons. "The US Navy has no known defense against these weapons."

Click to expand...

is incorrect. If the PLA or 2nd Arty possessed an AGM-129 like weapon the USN is well prepared for such a missile. USN AEW&C aircraft and I believe aegis are all potent defense against what is basically a stealthy cruise missile.
The AShBM as well, assuming it has FOC and the necessary sensor support, is not a silver bullet. SM-3 and the latest SM-2 variants are designed to intercept ballistic missiles... but how well they do it, and against a target they weren't necessarily designed for is another question. AShBM is not invulnerable to defense, but I imagine it would certainly be a lot harder to defend against than cruise missiles.

China possessed proven MIRV technology by 2002

The question of whether China possesses MIRV technology is critical, because it drastically affects the number of Chinese retaliatory warheads.

In 1981, China demonstrated it possessed the basic dual-use technology for MIRVs by successfully delivering three satellites into different orbits from one rocket launch.



"In September 1981, China successfully delivered three satellites with one launch vehicle, reportedly giving it an incipient multiple-warhead capability. Since the mid-1980s, China has reportedly conducted missile flight tests involving MRVs, and in May 1995, China flight-tested the DF-31 missile equipped with MRVs."

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In 2002, there were reports of a successful Chinese MIRV test on a DF-21 ballistic missile.



"China successfully tests multi-warhead missiles
Daily Yomiuri 02/10/03
Original Link:

China successfully test-launched a medium-range missile with multiple warheads in December 2002, indicating a rapid modernization of China's nuclear missile capability aimed at countering the U.S. missile defense network planned for the region, sources said Friday.

The launching of the Dong Feng-21 (DF-21), with a target range of about 1,800 kilometers, was the first successful test launch of the missile with multiple warheads for China.

According to the sources, the launch was carried out in mid-December at a Second Artillery Corp's base of the People's Liberation Army in Shanxi Province, China.

It is believed that the multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV), which China had sought to develop quickly, was used for the missile."



"Chinese MIRV Test Successful
Yonhap News via JoongAng Ilbo ^ | 02/08/03 | N/A
Posted on Friday, February 07, 2003 10:14:07 PM by TigerLikesRooster

Yomiuri Shimbun of Japan reported in its Beijing dispatch on Feb. 8, 2003 that China successfully conducted the MIRV test on December, 2002, using Dong-Feng 21.

The report quoted Chinese sources as saying, "The missile launch test was conducted in mid-December last year at a PLA strategic missile base in Shaxi province, and MIRV technology was apparently employed."

This is apparently the first Chinese success of the MIRV missile test.

China is making feverish efforts to counter American Missile Defense technology and this shows that they made a meaningful progress, the paper reports."



"China's Ballistic Missile Update - 2004
The Risk Report
Volume 11 Number 1 (November-December 2004)
...
Furthermore, advances in warhead design and multiple independently-targeted reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology (including a successful test of a MIRVed DF-21) appear intended to enable China to overcome U.S. missile defenses, allowing it to maintain a credible deterrent.
...
It is estimated that 48 DF-21s have been deployed. In 2002, according to a report in Japan's Daily Yomiuri newspaper, a DF-21 equipped with several MIRV-ed warheads was successfully test-launched, making it the first Chinese missile to be successfully armed with multiple warheads. The DF-21 is capable of reaching U.S. military bases in Asia, as well as targets in Russia, India, Japan, Korea, and the Philippines."

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In 2010, Richard D. Fisher, Jr. states he "has been told by Asian military sources that the DF-31A already carries three warheads and that one deployed DF-5B carries five or six warheads. These sources speculate the new 'DF-XX' may carry a similar number of warheads."



"China and START
By Richard D. Fisher Jr.,
The Washington Times,
20 September 2010
...
Since it started deploying intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the 1980s, China has refused to join in nuclear weapons negotiations. This did not matter as long as China deployed a small number, about 20 liquid-fueled 13,000-kilometer-range DF-5s with single warheads, until early this decade. Furthermore, China had lulled many analysts by regularly suggesting that it adheres to a doctrine of "minimum deterrence" that abjures U.S.- or Russian-level warhead numbers. But China has also rejected U.S. and Soviet levels of nuclear "transparency" as part of its deterrence calculus, with the result that nobody knows its nuclear force goals.

China began modernizing its nuclear missile forces by mid-decade, replacing early DF-5s with a similar number of improved DF-5A missiles based in stationary silos and deploying the new 7,000-to-8,000-kilometer-range, solid-fueled and mobile DF-31 and the larger 11,200-plus-kilometer-range DF-31A. In its latest report to the Congress on China`s military released on Aug. 16, the Pentagon says there are less than 10 DF-31 and "10-15" DF-31A ICBMs, up to five more than reported in the previous year`s report, covering 2008. However, in the 2010 issue of "Military Balance," Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies notes there is one brigade of 12 DF-31s and two brigades or 24 DF-31A ICBMs, indicating a possible increase of one new brigade from 2008 to 2009.

In addition, China may be close to fielding two more long-range nuclear missiles. First is the new 7,200-plus-kilometer-range JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile. Though reported to be experiencing developmental challenges, when completed, 12 each will go on the new Type 094 nuclear ballistic missile submarine, which the Pentagon estimates will number at least five, for a potential total of 60 missiles. Then there is a new yet-unidentified, larger ground-mobile ICBM which has been revealed in Chinese Internet-source images since 2007, but which the Pentagon did not publicly acknowledge until its latest China report. The distinguishing feature of the "DF-XX" is its use of a large ,16-wheel Russian-style transporter-erector-launcher (TEL), likely derived from Russian-Belarus technology imported in the late 1990s.

But here is where the real danger begins: The Pentagon also notes this new ICBM is "possibly capable of carrying multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles (MIRV)." Starting in 2002, the Pentagon`s China report noted the People`s Liberation Army`s (PLA) interest in developing multiple warheads, with more explicit language being used in the 2009 and 2010 reports. Might some PLA ICBMs already have multiple warheads? This analyst has been told by Asian military sources that the DF-31A already carries three warheads and that one deployed DF-5B carries five or six warheads. These sources speculate the new "DF-XX" may carry a similar number of warheads.

While it is not possible to confirm these disclosures from open sources, they point to an alarming possibility: China has crossed the multiple-warhead Rubicon and, with the possibility that it can build one brigade of DF-31A and DF-XX ICBMs a year, could be capable of annual double- or triple-digit increases in its deployed nuclear warheads. Chinese sources also suggest interest in developing longer-range versions of the JL-2, which could also be MIRV-capable. While a worst-case estimate, there is good reason to consider that China`s warhead numbers could exceed 500 by 2020."

China's DF-31As deter 126 cities


China's DF-31A launch

Let's do the math to see if China's DF-31A mobile ICBM retaliatory force is sufficient to provide a nuclear deterrent.

"Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies notes" there are "24 DF-31A ICBMs, indicating a possible increase of one new brigade from 2008 to 2009." China is increasing her DF-31A ICBM force by approximately 12 missiles/one brigade a year.

We will add 12 more missiles from 2009 to 2010 and six more missiles from 2010 to middle of 2011. A reasonable estimate of China's DF-31A force is 42 ICBMs (e.g. 24 at end of 2009, 12 more for 2010, and six more for 2011).

If Richard Fisher's information is correct and China's DF-31A is MIRVed with three warheads then that means the 42 DF-31As are armed with a total of 126 warheads (e.g. 42 DF-31As x 3 MIRVed warheads = 126 warheads).

We know China possesses the technology for a W-88 class warhead with a yield of 475 kilotons. The conclusion is that China's DF-31A nuclear force is capable of retaliating against 126 cities. That does seem to be a formidable second-strike capability.

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"China and START
By Richard D. Fisher Jr.,
The Washington Times,
20 September 2010
...
In its latest report to the Congress on China`s military released on Aug. 16, the Pentagon says there are less than 10 DF-31 and "10-15" DF-31A ICBMs, up to five more than reported in the previous year`s report, covering 2008. However, in the 2010 issue of "Military Balance," Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies notes there is one brigade of 12 DF-31s and two brigades or 24 DF-31A ICBMs, indicating a possible increase of one new brigade from 2008 to 2009.
...
This analyst has been told by Asian military sources that the DF-31A already carries three warheads and that one deployed DF-5B carries five or six warheads."

----------

The most interesting and controversial debate regarding China's reverse-engineering was the development of China's W-88 class miniaturized thermonuclear warhead. The U.S. claims China appropriated the designs and reverse-engineered the W-88 warhead. China says that isn't true.

China says this is a case of convergent engineering. For example, an airplane must have two wings to provide lift and an engine to provide thrust in the rear. Another example of convergent engineering is all rockets are long and thin. In other words, form must follow function. There is only a very limited way to create a massive thermonuclear explosion using a compact warhead.

Here is the crux of the problem. "U.S. government realized that information derived from Chinese tests in 1992-1996 were similar to U.S. nuclear designs." The Chinese nuclear tests data are "similar," but not identical to U.S. nuclear tests on the W-88.





"The W88 is a United States thermonuclear warhead, with an estimated yield of 475 kiloton (kt), and is small enough to fit on MIRVed missiles. The W88 was designed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the 1970s. In 1999 the director of Los Alamos who had presided over its design described it as "The most advanced U.S. nuclear warhead."[1]

The Trident II SLBM can be armed with up to 8 W88 (475 kt) warheads (Mark 5) or 8 W76 (100 kt) warheads (Mark 4), but it is limited to 4 warheads under SORT."



"...According to the Cox Committee Report, suspicion of China's nuclear espionage started after the U.S. government realized that information derived from Chinese tests in 1992-1996 were similar to U.S. nuclear designs. This similarity, combined with other information derived from classified sources, led the Cox Committee to claim that China had stolen several bomb designs, including the U.S.' most advanced W-88 design and a design for an enhanced radiation weapon (neutron bomb). Yet, the Cox Report has been severely criticized by both experts and officials in the United States as a political document that has several technical inaccuracies."

Cox Report has been severely criticized by both experts and officials in the United States as a political document that has several technical inaccuracies."

Click to expand...

This is just put it lightly, the cox report is notorious even among the sobber minds of Americans, and being criticise by Chinese govt officially to being an obsticle between China-US relationship.

The famous 李文和 (I actually don't know his Romanized spelling names) case of charging him as some "spy agent" responsible for China's overnight nuclear leap forward - ends with insufficient evidence, yet he still taking several years "county life" before his release (or bailment? I am not sure the legal term) - shows the "political correctness" of the country he calls home.

In fact, the 李文和 case (the case itself) has been cheered by Chinese netizens over the years - it is the best "deterrence" to Chinese national talents seeking "paradise" overseas (mainly US) as if they get to the dreaming Utopia as long as they reached US.

______________________________

Think about it, even THAT, the US intel still points out that

"The Chinese nuclear tests data are "similar," but not identical to U.S. nuclear tests on the W-88."

Click to expand...

China dose made some indigenous deterrence down there.

It doesn't really matter whether China stole or developed its warhead, the main thing is China got it. US also stole a lot of technologies from USSR and Nazi, and USSR also stole a lot from US and Nazi. Can we say all countries stole gun powder technology from China ?

Re: China's DF-31As deter 126 cities

Martian said:

China's DF-31A launch

Let's do the math to see if China's DF-31A mobile ICBM retaliatory force is sufficient to provide a nuclear deterrent.

"Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies notes" there are "24 DF-31A ICBMs, indicating a possible increase of one new brigade from 2008 to 2009." China is increasing her DF-31A ICBM force by approximately 12 missiles/one brigade a year.

We will add 12 more missiles from 2009 to 2010 and six more missiles from 2010 to middle of 2011. A reasonable estimate of China's DF-31A force is 42 ICBMs (e.g. 24 at end of 2009, 12 more for 2010, and six more for 2011).

If Richard Fisher's information is correct and China's DF-31A is MIRVed with three warheads then that means the 42 DF-31As are armed with a total of 126 warheads (e.g. 42 DF-31As x 3 MIRVed warheads = 126 warheads).

We know China possesses the technology for a W-88 class warhead with a yield of 475 kilotons. The conclusion is that China's DF-31A nuclear force is capable of retaliating against 126 cities. That does seem to be a formidable second-strike capability.

----------

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"China and START
By Richard D. Fisher Jr.,
The Washington Times,
20 September 2010
...
In its latest report to the Congress on China`s military released on Aug. 16, the Pentagon says there are less than 10 DF-31 and "10-15" DF-31A ICBMs, up to five more than reported in the previous year`s report, covering 2008. However, in the 2010 issue of "Military Balance," Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies notes there is one brigade of 12 DF-31s and two brigades or 24 DF-31A ICBMs, indicating a possible increase of one new brigade from 2008 to 2009.
...
This analyst has been told by Asian military sources that the DF-31A already carries three warheads and that one deployed DF-5B carries five or six warheads."

----------

The most interesting and controversial debate regarding China's reverse-engineering was the development of China's W-88 class miniaturized thermonuclear warhead. The U.S. claims China appropriated the designs and reverse-engineered the W-88 warhead. China says that isn't true.

China says this is a case of convergent engineering. For example, an airplane must have two wings to provide lift and an engine to provide thrust in the rear. Another example of convergent engineering is all rockets are long and thin. In other words, form must follow function. There is only a very limited way to create a massive thermonuclear explosion using a compact warhead.

Here is the crux of the problem. "U.S. government realized that information derived from Chinese tests in 1992-1996 were similar to U.S. nuclear designs." The Chinese nuclear tests data are "similar," but not identical to U.S. nuclear tests on the W-88.

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"The W88 is a United States thermonuclear warhead, with an estimated yield of 475 kiloton (kt), and is small enough to fit on MIRVed missiles. The W88 was designed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the 1970s. In 1999 the director of Los Alamos who had presided over its design described it as "The most advanced U.S. nuclear warhead."[1]

The Trident II SLBM can be armed with up to 8 W88 (475 kt) warheads (Mark 5) or 8 W76 (100 kt) warheads (Mark 4), but it is limited to 4 warheads under SORT."

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

"...According to the Cox Committee Report, suspicion of China's nuclear espionage started after the U.S. government realized that information derived from Chinese tests in 1992-1996 were similar to U.S. nuclear designs. This similarity, combined with other information derived from classified sources, led the Cox Committee to claim that China had stolen several bomb designs, including the U.S.' most advanced W-88 design and a design for an enhanced radiation weapon (neutron bomb). Yet, the Cox Report has been severely criticized by both experts and officials in the United States as a political document that has several technical inaccuracies."

Click to expand...

So now the basic design of "The most advanced U.S. nuclear warhead" is now easily available on the Wikipedia with full graphic details.

DF-41 ICBM: China's answer to American NMD

Aside from building more road- and rail-mobile DF-31As, what's next for China's ICBM program? The obvious answer is the DF-41 with 10 MIRVs.

China's ICBM nuclear forces were quiescent for 20 years until "President George W. Bush formally announced December 13 [2001] that the United States will unilaterally withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty." (See )

The formal withdrawal occurred six months after notification, when "the United States withdrew from the landmark 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty on June 13 [2002]." (See )

The Chinese response was swift. China had possessed the basic technology for MIRVs in 1981, but only tested it after the United States withdrew from the ABM treaty in 2002. China's first known successful MIRV test occurred in December 2002, six months after the U.S. withdrawal from the ABM treaty.

To preserve China's security through mutually-assured-destruction, China must maintain a capability to inflict sufficient damage in a counter-strike. Towards that strategic objective, China is building the DF-41 with 10 MIRVs to overwhelm any American National Missile Defense (NMD) shield.

In a counter-strike, for every DF-41 with 10 warheads, the United States must build 10 interceptors. There is also the question of how many interceptors will succeed (e.g. the success rate). I am leaving aside the question of whether the NMD is viable at all. For example, if China attacked the sea-based X-band radar sites then the NMD will be significantly impaired.

Anyway, it will always be far cheaper for China to build DF-41 ICBMs and much more expensive to defend against them. Ten DF-41s with 10 MIRVs each will require 100 interceptors. 100 DF-41s with 10 MIRVs each will require 1,000 interceptors. It is pointless to build a NMD against a near-peer opponent. The other side can easily overwhelm a NMD system.

I will leave it to you to decide whether America was safer prior to President Bush's withdrawal from the ABM treaty. Prior to 2002, China only had 20 DF-5s capable of a counter-strike against the United States. Forced to counter President Bush's NMD initiative, China is on its way to becoming armed with an ever-increasing number of MIRVs.


China's DF-41 ICBM is capable of carrying 10 MIRVs.


Closer look at DF-41


DF-41 undergoing tests.


DF-41 spotted on public road in 2007.


DF-41 seen again on a public road.

Re: DF-41: China's answer to American NMD

Is it DF-41 or DF-31A ? if it is DF-41, what is the actual specs ?