China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread

[tankphobia]

How is it bad? In most other countries, those commanders would have stayed. Being able to dismiss less efficient people due to independent oversight is the reason why the PLA can be a lean fighting force without needing much funding.

Like the fat Leonard scandal that affected the US navy in the 2010s, dismissing corruption is the bare minimum in this instance. You'd hope the person in charge of nuclear delivery would be reliable, if anything serious prison time should be considered since the role is so critical to national security.

We already have winds of CIA attempting to rebuild their network in China, promotion buying is a quick way for infiltration to occur.

 

[Kalec]

You'd hope the person in charge of nuclear delivery would be reliable, if anything serious prison time should be considered since the role is so critical to national security.

Leak is probably a very good thing for deterrence value nevertheless I don't really think he could leak anything that CIA hadn't already known by one way or another way.

China has the most opaque public declaration among P5 countries I hardly see any point taken from hiding everything under carpet then pretending no one will ever find them.

 

[Biscuits]

Leak is probably a very good thing for deterrence value nevertheless I don't really think he could leak anything that CIA hadn't already known by one way or another way.

China has the most opaque public declaration among P5 countries I hardly see any point taken from hiding everything under carpet then pretending no one will ever find them.

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You're assuming Beijing views nukes as doomsday weapons as opposed to just another weapon that can be used if the right circumstances show themselves.

Viewing nukes as doomsday weapons is clearly not compatible with Maoist optimistic thinking, which believed that communist countries would be able to thrive after a nuclear war, if the right preparations were made.

Of course China isn't operating under the exact same thinking anymore, but it has also not revealed it's current ideas.

Believing nukes can only cause MAD and only has value in MAD is nihilist thinking. I'm not saying it's right or wrong or if I agree with the government or not, but I can see reasons why nuclear secretivity is important to China, if China rejects the doctrine of an unwinnable nuclear war.

 

[Kalec]

You're assuming Beijing views nukes as doomsday weapons as opposed to just another weapon that can be used if the right circumstances show themselves.

Viewing nukes as doomsday weapons is clearly not compatible with Maoist optimistic thinking, which believed that communist countries would be able to thrive after a nuclear war, if the right preparations were made.

Of course China isn't operating under the exact same thinking anymore, but it has also not revealed it's current ideas.

Believing nukes can only cause MAD and only has value in MAD is nihilist thinking. I'm not saying it's right or wrong or if I agree with the government or not, but I can see reasons why nuclear secretivity is important to China, if China rejects the doctrine of an unwinnable nuclear war.

With due respect, Mao didn't seem to have a correct understanding on how nuke works and many of his thinking still have considerable influence in current Chinese perception of nuclear weapon.

If you compare the wording from 1964 communique published right after first Chinese nuclear test with nuclear white paper published in 2019, you will see probably very few thing changed after 60 years.

I am not going into the exact timing on when China should declare its nuclear posture but the earlier the better after reaching parity.

To be fair, even North Korea has more publicity over its nuclear weapon than China does and if Chinese leadership sincerely believe that they want to persuade western influence from intervening in Taiwan, they should have a Medvedev in the cabinet.

 

[Biscuits]

With due respect, Mao didn't seem to have a correct understanding on how nuke works and many of his thinking still have considerable influence in current Chinese perception of nuclear weapon.

If you compare the wording from 1964 communique published right after first Chinese nuclear test with nuclear white paper published in 2019, you will see probably very few thing changed after 60 years.

I am not going into the exact timing on when China should declare its nuclear posture but the earlier the better after reaching parity.

To be fair, even North Korea has more publicity over its nuclear weapon than China does and if Chinese leadership sincerely believe that they want to persuade western influence from intervening in Taiwan, they should have a Medvedev in the cabinet.

Nuclear weapons doesn't really have anything to do with Taiwan. If China was very scared of an American attack, they could say that any US invasion would be met immediately with MAD or at least tactical nuke spam. This was likely the past concensus that existed when China was conventionally weak in the 1990s, hence US never attacked.

But the point of China's current strategy is to keep US tied up, and American threats towards Taiwan is another part of that.

Taiwan is to China what West Germany was to NATO. US is being baited into wasting resources building up to storm the Taiwan line, like how the USSR wasted resources building up to breach the Fulda gap.

Starting more and more proxy wars while dangling the prospect of ww3 just out of reach will probably be China's playbook for the remainder of the cold war.

China's current nuclear posture is good for making US constantly guess what kind of speeds China would be able to strike, whether China intends to honor an agreement not to strike first, how strong China's defenses are etc. But for US, which has a world ending arsenal size like China, it's not too big of a concern, because at the end of the day, even if most of their nukes don't even reach China, the sheer radiation damage will guarantee some level of revenge.

However, to the likes of India, which do not have the means of consistent delivery or production, China's posture is much more terrifying, and that is a good thing. It keeps them suppressed.

 

[davidau]

Nuclear weapons doesn't really have anything to do with Taiwan. If China was very scared of an American attack, they could say that any US invasion would be met immediately with MAD or at least tactical nuke spam. This was likely the past concensus that existed when China was conventionally weak in the 1990s, hence US never attacked.

But the point of China's current strategy is to keep US tied up, and American threats towards Taiwan is another part of that.

Taiwan is to China what West Germany was to NATO. US is being baited into wasting resources building up to storm the Taiwan line, like how the USSR wasted resources building up to breach the Fulda gap.

Starting more and more proxy wars while dangling the prospect of ww3 just out of reach will probably be China's playbook for the remainder of the cold war.

China's current nuclear posture is good for making US constantly guess what kind of speeds China would be able to strike, whether China intends to honor an agreement not to strike first, how strong China's defenses are etc. But for US, which has a world ending arsenal size like China, it's not too big of a concern, because at the end of the day, even if most of their nukes don't even reach China, the sheer radiation damage will guarantee some level of revenge.

However, to the likes of India, which do not have the means of consistent delivery or production, China's posture is much more terrifying, and that is a good thing. It keeps them suppressed.

Keep them in the dark and keep them in the fear

 

[Kalec]

Nuclear weapons doesn't really have anything to do with Taiwan. If China was very scared of an American attack, they could say that any US invasion would be met immediately with MAD or at least tactical nuke spam. This was likely the past concensus that existed when China was conventionally weak in the 1990s, hence US never attacked.

China's current nuclear posture is good for making US constantly guess what kind of speeds China would be able to strike, whether China intends to honor an agreement not to strike first, how strong China's defenses are etc. But for US, which has a world ending arsenal size like China, it's not too big of a concern, because at the end of the day, even if most of their nukes don't even reach China, the sheer radiation damage will guarantee some level of revenge.

Nuclear weapon has deterrence value and a show of strength to deter your perceived enemy from engaging you without serious concern on whether you may or may not actually use them. It is exactly why NATO hasn't formally set it foot on Ukrainian land.

Deterrence is NOT guaranteed as granted, there would be a serious problem that the opponent has a vastly different perception than yours. It is why China should state clearly when and how China is going to use nuclear weapon and at what scale. It has to be credible enough for US fearing of real action instead of vague threaten.

For example, If US used conventional weapon on Chinese vessels and what will be Chinese response? At this point, Threatening of MAD is just a behavior of Medvedev, no one will buy into it.

The current policy is well enough for the pure defensive line but far from enough on offensive line. Simple put, if you are billionaire it is ok that you can basically buy whatever you want but if you want to join cool kid club to compete with Jeff, Elon you d better have more.

 

[Petrolicious88]

How is it bad? In most other countries, those commanders would have stayed. Being able to dismiss less efficient people due to independent oversight is the reason why the PLA can be a lean fighting force without needing much funding.

In which country would officers like this not be dismissed/arrested if they were acting as foreign agents. And it wouldn't be labeled as economic corruption.

 

[Taiban]

一图概览 习近平强军思想“十一个明确”
*An overview of Xi Jinping's "Eleven Definitives" on the thought of “strengthening the Army*”
*The thought process*:

The ongoing process of *strengthening the army will never stop*, and the innovations will continue hither to fore.
Xi Jinping Thought on Strengthening the Army, based on the practice of strengthening the army and rejuvenating the army in the new era, puts forward a series of iconic and leading new ideas and new strategies, forming a *scientific military theory system with rich internal knowledge, profound thinking, and advancing with the times*. The main content of this thought is concentrated in the new generalization of "*Eleven Definitives*", which fully demonstrates the contemporary, open and creative nature of the party's military guidance theory.

*Second*

A strong country must have a strong army to consolidate national defense. A strong
people's army is the support for upholding and developing socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era and realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The people's army must effectively carry out the missions and tasks as demanded in the new era.

*First*

The *absolute leadership of the people's Party is the foundation of the people's army and the soul of a strong army. It is necessary to comprehensively strengthen the party's leadership and leadership in the army*.
The construction of consciousness, implement a series of fundamental principles and systems of the party leading the army, and *ensure that the troops are absolutely loyal, absolutely pure, and absolutely reliable*.

*Fourth*

The Army has *to prepare for war.* It must focus on being able to fight and win wars, *hold back powerful enemies, innovate military strategic guidance, develop strategies and tactics of people's war,* and comprehensively strengthen
the troops to prepare for war, carry out military struggle firmly and flexibly. Should effectively shape the situation, manage and control crises, contain wars, and win wars.

*Third*

The Aim of a strong army in the new era is to *build a body of people who obey the party's command, can win battles, and have a good style of work*.
For the military, *the 100-year goal of the army will be achieved by 2027*, the modernization of national defense and the military will *be realized by 2035*, and the people's army will be built into a *world-class army by the middle of this century.*

*Fifth*

Further strengthening the *military must adhere to the political construction of the country*, to the need to reform the military, the scientific and technological development of the military, the talent of the military, and the rule of law, along with the persistence of struggle, preparation, and construction is a must. *Military-civilian integration, strengthen military governance, promote high-quality development*, and comprehensively improve levels of modernization.

*Sixth*

*Reforms are the only way to strengthen the military*. It is necessary to promote the modernization of the military as an organization, *build a modern military force system with Chinese characteristics*, and improve the socialist military system with Chinese characteristics.

*Seventh*

*Science and Technology is the core combat power*, and we must adhere to the strategic basis of *independent innovation, promote high-level science and technology to achieve self-improvement*, coordinate and promote innovation in military theory, technology, organization, management, culture and build an *innovative people's army.*


*Eighth*

The way to strengthen the military lies in the *acquisition of personnel*. It is necessary to implement the *military education policy of the new era, promote the comprehensive transformation and upgrading of military personnel's ability* and quality, structural layout, development and management, and forge high-quality, *professional new-type military personnel* with both ability and political integrity.

*Ninth*

*To run the army in accordance to the law is the basic way for our party to build and run the army*. It is necessary to build a *military legal system with Chinese characteristics* and promote the way of running the army.
Fundamental changes will be needed to improve the rules of law in national defense and in military growth.


A good *style of work is a distinctive feature* of our army and a political
advantage. We must *comprehensively and strictly govern the party*, comprehensively and *strictly govern the army*, comprehensively forge strong grassroots, and *unswervingly punish, Discipline and implement anti-corruption drive.* We must carry forward the *glorious tradition and fine style of our party and army*, and always maintain the nature, purpose, and *true qualities of the people's army*.

*Tenth*

The development of *military-civilian integration* is an act of rejuvenating the country and a strategy for further strengthening the army. It is necessary to consolidate and improve the *integrated national combat system and its capabilities.*

 

[Biscuits]

Nuclear weapon has deterrence value and a show of strength to deter your perceived enemy from engaging you without serious concern on whether you may or may not actually use them. It is exactly why NATO hasn't formally set it foot on Ukrainian land.

If China did want to use a first strike, it would be most foolish to make others believe that they would do so. Isn't the whole point of a succesful first strike based on surprise?

If you reread what I wrote, China doesn't threaten to nuke conventional attacks in order to keep US invested, the same way US kept the USSR invested.

If China decide to revolve it's defenses around nukes, what would happen is that US would choose a neutral arena to fight for, putting all it's strength into overseas proxy wars. That's significantly worse for China than having 90% of US capabilities tied down because they need to threaten the homeland, yet at the same time the US doesn't have enough power to break the Asia line.

The reason NATO has underperformed against Russia can largely be chalked up to US forces being split.

Deterrence is NOT guaranteed as granted, there would be a serious problem that the opponent has a vastly different perception than yours. It is why China should state clearly when and how China is going to use nuclear weapon and at what scale. It has to be credible enough for US fearing of real action instead of vague threaten.

For example, If US used conventional weapon on Chinese vessels and what will be Chinese response? At this point, Threatening of MAD is just a behavior of Medvedev, no one will buy into it.

Isn't it obvious? They will use conventional weapons in greater amounts on US vessels.

China doesn't benefit from starting MAD when you know, they have a lot of other interests that are going well.

The current policy is well enough for the pure defensive line but far from enough on offensive line. Simple put, if you are billionaire it is ok that you can basically buy whatever you want but if you want to join cool kid club to compete with Jeff, Elon you d better have more.

Defensive lines work for China because it's a country of 1.4 billion (as much as the cumulative west) that has access to more resources than the western world.

Where would China go on a military offensive? The middle east? That would be US' home arena, militarily speaking. However, now because US has to split it's attention, the middle east is falling to China, not through military means but covert and diplomatic means.

This is the safer way to fight a cold war. Keep the other side heavily invested in the possibility of turning it all with ww3, and then keep piling on proxy conflicts.