The other thing is that it is much easier for China to 'automate' a sustained military response to US forces in WestPac than vice versa, as the cost of producing long-range smart weapons (such as AShBMs) are cheaper for China, and the production capacity for such is also larger too, so this would be a state of attrition that would be highly unfavorable for the US.
China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread
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There's no "East Turkistan" but there's an "East Turkistan Government in Exile" but I think we both get the idea, doesn't really matter what its called. And yea, I think China will break off diplomatic relations with the US once that happens. The US will still want diplomatic relations because China's just too large to ignore, and there are CEO's of companies other than the defense industry who still want to trade with China but they would've crossed China's red line at that point.
We've known the United States will go to war over Taiwan since the Korean War. The only people who care about American charades are American think tankers who think they're clever and sophisticated. Nobody else is fooled.
The PLA certainly has never paid any attention to American pretences. The official Chinese histories state that American intervention became a certainty when the Seventh Fleet sailed into the Taiwan Strait during the Korean War.
Since then, the military's entire developmental history (and many other decisions, from electric vehicles to hukou requirements discouraging growth in Beijing/Shanghai) has been made with the assumption that a Taiwanese contingency means war with America. Nobody's stupid; everybody's known this for decades.
The PLA certainly has never paid any attention to American pretences. The official Chinese histories state that American intervention became a certainty when the Seventh Fleet sailed into the Taiwan Strait during the Korean War.
Since then, the military's entire developmental history (and many other decisions, from electric vehicles to hukou requirements discouraging growth in Beijing/Shanghai) has been made with the assumption that a Taiwanese contingency means war with America. Nobody's stupid; everybody's known this for decades.
So much government-in-exile have cause big problem to America not China. In the end the US taxpayers pay for them not the government-in-exile nor China because they lose the ability to tax the lacals. In order to maintain the oganization they need to use all kind of way to get the financail support.
I'm not sure if that's quite the case. Up to and during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (in my opinion) PRC did not plan on the US intervening - there were real plans to take Kinmen and Matsu after the military exercises are over. When the US sailed 2 aircraft carriers the PLA knew that it couldn't actually force the issue.
Current planning on Taiwan would take into account both the USN and the JSSDF - and maybe even Australia given its increasingly aggressive posture vis-a-vis Taiwan.
I'd discount the JSDF. Japan is just posturing in the bet that it may slightly, if at all, inflict some change in Chinese planning. JSDF has to change its name and other things first. Then, Japan has to live with the consequences of that war for the rest of the century.
Australia, US, UK et all... certainly.
料敌从宽 - it is better to give your enemies more credit and assume they have more capabilities.
From their recent defence and diplomatic posture (ie joining USS Carl Vinson and HMS Elizabeth, saying that Taiwan is part of their national security concern) it is better to assume that Japan is going to join the fight.
Japan will join the fight only when China is already about to lose. Read some Japanese defense type's interviews with the press: They want a divided and destroyed China more than anything; they cannot live in an Asia that is dominated by China again - their pride and their fear of facing up with their history prevents that; and will also join in stomping a China has is already lying on the ground, but they will hardly risk facing chinese wrath by joining early and losing alongside the others.
China must mass produce nuclear weapons immediately to deter the US from using nukes when China dominates the Taiwan war conventionally and sinks US carriers and strikes US bases. Nothing else matters right now. When the US has been dealt a bloody nose and is being kept from butthurt nuclear overreactions by Chinese nuclear deterrence, Japan, South Korea etc all will submit to the new world order.
China must mass produce nuclear weapons immediately to deter the US from using nukes when China dominates the Taiwan war conventionally and sinks US carriers and strikes US bases. Nothing else matters right now. When the US has been dealt a bloody nose and is being kept from butthurt nuclear overreactions by Chinese nuclear deterrence, Japan, South Korea etc all will submit to the new world order.
10 000 nuclear warheads should be the goal.
How much money would that cost?
$100 billion ?
I don't think it's in the interest of anyone to go overboard regarding the "China will defeat everyone" matter. But I've noticed that people usually see war in an one dimensional frame. A defeated China is a China gone rogue and insane. Even if under the remotest condition where China has to accept "defeat", the actions after that episode would be catastrophic for China domestically as well as internationally.
Domestically, political upheaval is going to be there. But since China is a great power, it can create a mess the likes of which will put the storied 'Samson Option' of Israel to shame. Ideally, for China's adversaries, they must create a condition for both domestic political upheaval in China as well as a Military defeat of China. A military defeat in itself, is not at all possible or desirable as people will rally hard during the trying times.
Somehow, they must link the military defeat to gross mismanagement ( very visible one at that) by the CCP of the PLA. But then if the war isn't over ( and China signing some document of concession of defeat) then the whole "responsible great power" tag will be torn away by China itself. A China signing a document of defeat is inconceivable in itself due to the sensitive past that China highlights to its children and citizen every other day.
What can China do as an "irresponsible" great power after that episode? A whole damn lot. In fact, I think it's scary for the world so interconnected through trade, Finance, data and resources. A great power is called so for a reason. No one will laugh a good laugh after a China fall.
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