China won Turkey's missile defense competition

Equation said:

I believe Turkey will continue to operate some of its air defenses under NATO for now, if or until they get that FD-2000 tot from China and start making their own air defense system. Once Turkey are able to produce enough of their own FD-2000 it will slowly stop depending on NATO system. So in the long run not only this will save Turkey money, but they could also sell some of their FD-2000 under license and agreement of course to neighboring countries in the Middle East and North Africa. This would give Turkey more political and economic leverage as well.

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The political environment is not stable in Turkey. Current agreements outside the NATO supply chain will face a reevaluation as soon as the imminent change happens. Turkey might still be able to adopt the FD2000 if a local production is set up and some NATO-compatibility modifications are made by Turkey. This would provide valuable knowledge about the operation of this non-NATO system. The US obstructionism should not be taken at face value. The US will benefit from the knowledge the Turks gather, but worries about the politics behind that decision. Turkey has been less reliable as an ally since the AKP came to power.

Well, in Istanbul AK Party had 52% of the votes so it is not really West/East division. I agree that AK party has more votes in central regions (up to 70%) but in Eastern Anatolia where Kurds are the majority their votes decrease to around 45-50% even to ~20% when you reach in close proximity to Iraq/Iran borders. Only major city, where AK Party is weak, is Izmir and even there their vote was ~38%.

Overall, AK Party has a solid support and, I believe, next local elections (March 2014) will be the biggest victory they had so far. I expect their vote to be around 50-52% with second party reaching around 32-34%.

The East-West divide is in external cultural perception of Turkey and has nothing to do with Turkish voting.
The AKP gathers votes by the economic success, the EU joining project and opposition to the military (and judicary) estblishment.
EU members are counting on the economy coming to a halt by the inherent problems of an overblown service sector in Turkey. It did not happen like in Greece, because Turkey has an own currency and is not directly linked to the economic processes in Europe.
Among the other parties there is none that stands out as opposing the (formerly powerful) generals' interference in politics. That's a major voting bonus for the AKP that will erode over time.
The EU joining project was one of the major goals of the AKP from the outset and served as a useful tool for dethroning the military. The more this project comes into question, the more voting ground is lost in the more pro-European regions of Turkey.
To put the voting of different regions into perspective, Istanbul is among the national average in votes for the AKP, Central Anatolia is their support base and the Kurdish settled regions of Izmir and Eastern Aantolia are home to the opposition. That's an internal view on Turkey.
Non-Turkish Europeans either emphasize the cosmopolitan nature of the West coast and Istanbul or stress the outlandish costumes of East Anatolia.

Turkey buying military hardware in China is a temptation going along with a realignment perspective along their Central Asian national brethren Turkic peoples. It will always persists, as long as the pan-Turkic camp is split in alignment. The missiles are just one example of this ongoing temptation. Pan-Turkicism will remain a counterweight to the European aspirations that endanger AKP rule, because the EU does not favour some of the AKP policies.

Kurt said:

The East-West divide is in external cultural perception of Turkey and has nothing to do with Turkish voting.
The AKP gathers votes by the economic success, the EU joining project and opposition to the military (and judicary) estblishment.
EU members are counting on the economy coming to a halt by the inherent problems of an overblown service sector in Turkey. It did not happen like in Greece, because Turkey has an own currency and is not directly linked to the economic processes in Europe.
Among the other parties there is none that stands out as opposing the (formerly powerful) generals' interference in politics. That's a major voting bonus for the AKP that will erode over time.
The EU joining project was one of the major goals of the AKP from the outset and served as a useful tool for dethroning the military. The more this project comes into question, the more voting ground is lost in the more pro-European regions of Turkey.
To put the voting of different regions into perspective, Istanbul is among the national average in votes for the AKP, Central Anatolia is their support base and the Kurdish settled regions of Izmir and Eastern Aantolia are home to the opposition. That's an internal view on Turkey.
Non-Turkish Europeans either emphasize the cosmopolitan nature of the West coast and Istanbul or stress the outlandish costumes of East Anatolia.

Turkey buying military hardware in China is a temptation going along with a realignment perspective along their Central Asian national brethren Turkic peoples. It will always persists, as long as the pan-Turkic camp is split in alignment. The missiles are just one example of this ongoing temptation. Pan-Turkicism will remain a counterweight to the European aspirations that endanger AKP rule, because the EU does not favour some of the AKP policies.

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Could an influx of Kurdish refugees or illegals entering Turkey dis-balance the voting power of the AKP, therefore changing Turkey's direction in foreign relations? I'm assuming Kurds that don't have voting rights in Turkey but could influence part of the region in some ways. Also what policies of the AKP that the EU are having problems with?

Again I thank you and Foxmulder for sharing your answers. I'm just curious to hear more about Turkey from another point of view.

Equation said:

Could an influx of Kurdish refugees or illegals entering Turkey dis-balance the voting power of the AKP, therefore changing Turkey's direction in foreign relations? I'm assuming Kurds that don't have voting rights in Turkey but could influence part of the region in some ways. Also what policies of the AKP that the EU are having problems with?

Again I thank you and Foxmulder for sharing your answers. I'm just curious to hear more about Turkey from another point of view.

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The Kurds do have voting rights in Turkey. Their right for a separate national identity is disputed. They are meant to call themselves "Mountain Turks" and not Kurds (that is the same word as wulf in Turkish). Under the AKP led EU integration process the cultural visibility of Kurdish identity was improved by allowing more use of their own language.
Feelings between Kurds and the military are bitter, because of the long and ongoing bloody struggle for an independent Kurdish state.



The problems between AKP and EU are due, from a EU point of view, to the slow progress the Turks are making in creating a modern democratic rechtsstaat. The AKP is still in a dirty power struggle with the old Kemalistic elite and the methods of both are unfitting for a European state to put it this way. They are not dissimilar to what went on/goes on in Greece, but since the Greco-Persian Wars, Greece has a head start as a European nation despite their state of affairs. Greece is like Turkey in many ways, but has a better narrative that doesn't link them to Central Asia. They are depicted as the southern frontier and defenders of Greek(=European) civilization since before Christ in all European schoolbooks.

"From the Greeks (and Romans) came European science and civilization through Arabic transmission and additions...".
300 about the Greco-Persian Wars was a box office hit in Europe and has a sequel, unlike Fetih 1453, about the fall of Constantinopel, the most impenetrable fortress city. Both films are about the foundations of the national myths of Greece(=Europe) and Osman Turkey(the ones who took "a most splendid European city and turned it into something else").



The Turks are fighting a steep uphill battle for joining the EU and it's not just about the actual problems, but about their perception and the evaluation of these problems that is very critical due to widespread differing narratives of history that does not share common ground.

But the problems of Turkey and the EU should be discussed in a different post, because it has increasingly less to do with missile systems. The Chinese technology can indeed have been the better choice and Turkey was reminded of political strings attached to weapons purchases outside the NATO supply chain.

Kurt said:

The Kurds do have voting rights in Turkey. Their right for a separate national identity is disputed. They are meant to call themselves "Mountain Turks" and not Kurds (that is the same word as wulf in Turkish). Under the AKP led EU integration process the cultural visibility of Kurdish identity was improved by allowing more use of their own language.
Feelings between Kurds and the military are bitter, because of the long and ongoing bloody struggle for an independent Kurdish state.

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I don't want to derail the thread but if you call a Kurd as a "mountain turk" he will be extremely offended. Kurds are their own people and absolutely not "mountain turks". That is just a term coined by some army generals in order not to use word "Kurd" during the bitter years of the intense fighting.


@Equation

When it comes to Kurdish refugees, there is almost none. Kurds in Turkey are already citizens and they are the largest population of Kurds on Earth with 15-20 million people. Iraq and Iran has another ~5 million or so each and they are not coming to Turkey. Syria has around 2-3 million and now they have almost autonomy due to the civil war so they are not coming to Turkey either.

So the contest is still open as other companies might change their stance towards joint development.

This is what the Turkish is aiming for, using FD-2000 as a leverage?

NATO applying heavy pressure on Turkey. Including financial pressure on the Turkish company working with China to integrate the missile.

shen said:

NATO applying heavy pressure on Turkey. Including financial pressure on the Turkish company working with China to integrate the missile.

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Like most military analysts predicted, Turkey would succumb to NATO pressure.

However on the other hand, it won great exposure and media attraction as well as the Chinese weapon system.

There are more potential customers in South Amercian countries perhaps.

If turkey succumbs, the real reason would probably not be direct NATO pressure. It would probably be turkey's reduced circumstances from just 2 years ago.

During the last few years, when Eurozone economy looked moribund, turkey appeared to be the economic high flyer with near double digit growth rates. Like everyone who feel they were not treated well in the past but who are enjoying an economic boom in the present, the Turks believed turkey's economic take off will last indefinitely and will send Turkish economy into the stratosphere, well beyond the reach of NATO and the US, or any other factor for that matter, that might shoot it down. Therefore turkey can afford to pursue an independent foreign policy course with disregard for NATO and US objections.

But in the last 2 years Turkish economic difficulties mounted, and government debt burden and current account deficit have both increased. Now it suddenly appears that turkey would need the Eurozone to get out of its impending economic crisis, and it's capacity to pursue a foreign policy displeasing to NATO and EU is now seen to be much less than was estimated 1-2 years ago.