China-US-Taiwan Economic (Temp closed-pls read my last post)
- Thread starter Orthan
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The US sending forces into Taiwan would be an act of war to which China would necessarily respond. It would be condemned by fourteen of the fifteen members of the UN Security Council. China would recall its ambassador from Washington. A USN ship already in a Taiwanese port might be legitimately destroyed but China might well limit itself to declaring a sea and air exclusion zone similar to but not the same as what US did during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. That could make the presence of any merchant or naval vessel in that area illegal and possibly subject to action.
USN ships certainly would not be able to "protect" Taiwan.
Jura The idiot
General
"Beijing watched Trump threaten to abandon America’s adherence to the one-China policy if he did not get trade concessions — and then just fold the minute China’s president, Xi Jinping, said he would not take a phone call from Trump unless he reaffirmed the “One-China” policy." etc.:
Trump Is China’s Chump
JUNE 28, 2017
Trump Is China’s Chump
JUNE 28, 2017
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Are you selectively not reading things? You have been told by 2 members about China's military options. If you think US forces can touch down on Taiwan before Chinese missiles do, then you are very confused about the speed at which things move in the military and more confused about how US law works. Because America is a democracy, its decisions move through several layers of approval, all of which are in the media. There are so many warning signs and it will move through so slowly, China can probably invade Taiwan and set up a new government and have a new working economic model before the final approval to go forward is implemented in the US.
A 2,000 missile barrage against Taiwan will not be intercepted in any meaningful way. A missile fail/miss the target when the target is a 14,000 square mile island?? A few may fail, but they would be statistically insignificant. Don't say stupid stuff you don't understand. According to most US think tanks such as RAND, China can already either defeat the US or inflict unacceptable losses to the US in a conventional war over Taiwan. And each year, China's ability increases in relation.
Suicide to start a nuclear war? Yes, it is, but China won't go alone. You clearly lack understanding about the Taiwan issue, as you do military capability. You analyzed the situation as if it were 2 players vying over a pawn that is Taiwan, so if China is put into a difficult situation, it should forsake the pawn and work a different strategy. This is American thinking because to the US, Taiwan is just a pawn that can stand, fall, be sacrificed, etc... Lords never endanger themselves for pawns. To China, Taiwan represents the integrity of the nation. It is the final stand. The world can burn to nuclear ash but Taiwan cannot have independence.
If the US could not stop Filipino independence, if the US did nothing but throw curses and economic sanctions when Russia took Crimea and invaded Georgia, if the US does nothing but watch as China piles sand to make islands and put jets/missiles on them in the SCS on territory that US allies claim, then it is dream to think they would pick up arms to defend Taiwan in a potentially nuclear conflict. It is all talk... talk and money in arms sales.
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I thought I was responding to your notion "China can not do anything if US warship dock at ports in Taiwan (the congress proposed bill)". Am I right?
Taiwan's ports are Chinese territorial waters, aren't they? Let's be realistic, if you read the constitution of Republic of China (the official name of Taiwan), you will find that there is only one Chinese sovereignty (therefor one territory) which include both mainland China and Taiwan. By laws of both sides of the straight, port of Gaoxiong (Kaohsiung) is as Chinese as Shanghai. How could US warships not in Chinese waters if they dock there without Beijing's consent?
I think by this time we don't really need to argue what is China or not, the papers are crystal clear. What is left to argue is the physical forces to back these laws up, which China is not lack of. That not-lack-of is my center point, and the "" I mentioned is the proof of it.
The arms sale will probably go ahead and China won't do anything about it, because this is not the first time this happened.
However US warships docking in Taiwan is simply not going to happen, this is way too provocative and like many said China are much more motivated than US in this.
This probably will not pass congress if it will I doubt Trump will sign it (or he might, because Trump is going to be Trump). But lets say in the event it all passes, and US decide to send warships to Taiwan, I expect Chinese navy will have a standoff with US ships near Taiwan, both side will probably face a stand off in the ocean, but there will be far more Chinese ships than US ships so US will probably back down, if not, then both side will play the ramming game and again, Chinese ships will outnumber US ships so again China will come out on top.
Whatever happens China will not fire the first shot, but if they are fired upon then they will probably fire back and gain the narrative as victims. And with the way Taiwan is already isolated internationally, and US influence at all time low, I highly doubt there will be anyone on US's side, that includes Japan and South Korea.
This is not a game that US can win, so if they try and loses, US would have lost far more credibility and bring in Chinese unification sooner.
However US warships docking in Taiwan is simply not going to happen, this is way too provocative and like many said China are much more motivated than US in this.
This probably will not pass congress if it will I doubt Trump will sign it (or he might, because Trump is going to be Trump). But lets say in the event it all passes, and US decide to send warships to Taiwan, I expect Chinese navy will have a standoff with US ships near Taiwan, both side will probably face a stand off in the ocean, but there will be far more Chinese ships than US ships so US will probably back down, if not, then both side will play the ramming game and again, Chinese ships will outnumber US ships so again China will come out on top.
Whatever happens China will not fire the first shot, but if they are fired upon then they will probably fire back and gain the narrative as victims. And with the way Taiwan is already isolated internationally, and US influence at all time low, I highly doubt there will be anyone on US's side, that includes Japan and South Korea.
This is not a game that US can win, so if they try and loses, US would have lost far more credibility and bring in Chinese unification sooner.
China does make exceptions to planes and ships for trade to Taiwan, but TRADE only, not warships. Foreign warships may be allowed to dock at Chinese ports, USN ships at Hong Kong for example, BUT only with Beijing's consent. I am sure not Taiwan.
As you insist calling Taiwan as a "country", besides self-convinced you have to convince all UN member states to call Taiwan a country (except the 20 out of 193 states who do recognize Taiwan as a country of its own). That is a mission impossible, 21-1=20 just happened weeks ago. After that bill is passed in US congress and senate, you will be seeing that number 20 goes further down.
The subject is sensitive to people from both mainland and Taiwan, so I suggest we avoid it, but you can not ignore the legal and diplomatic reality.
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Quite right, sanblvd. Also China wants all of Taiwan, not just the ruins of what was a reasonably prosperous country. So that is another reason China doesn't want war. But China is strong and determined. I have mentioned it before: some thirty years ago a Dutch shipyard sold two submarines to Taiwan and wanted to sell four more. Already then China was strong enough to convince the Dutch government not to allow it and the shipyard, the only submarine building shipyard in the Netherlands, didn't survive.
I will take the time to answer the last point of this post of yours before the thread being shut down, a high probability about these kind of subject.
The incident back in 1949 is an example of China without a Navy bombing and crippling two warships of the then world second largest Navy. If China chose to do so back then, what makes you think China will not choose to (the options) bomb and cripple or even sank warships of the number one navy at her doorstep today when China does possess a formidable Ground, Air and Naval force just 200km across?
Go nuclear is not a preferable option to anyone, US included. It is easy to say but suicidal to do, EVERYONE included. I suggest we don't further walk down that path.
antiterror13
Brigadier
you'd better stop here
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