china/taiwan news

Anyone used to follow Li Ao before he passed away? Perhaps the most prominent strategic thinker in Taiwan history.

He attended a Jacky Wu's variety show and here comes the Q&A(set at 2111) part :

Why cant we be a nation?
If majority want, why not?!
Why the world refuse to recognise us!?

montyp165 said:

It's more complicated than that, Chiang's deputy acted on his own accord against Chiang's intentions (and was executed for it), while the Taiwanese protestors had many pro-Japanese sympathizers and agitators amongst themselves, so the US also had another reason not to bother.

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Chen Yi was executed because he turned against Chiang, not because of what he did on Taiwan. In fact, he already established a precedent with his brutal and notorious governship of the province of Fukien. There he developed the “Necessary State Socialism”, a system designed to drain local wealth into his and his administration’s pockets and systematically looted the province. Anyone who opposed him was either jailed or executed. Oh, and on top of that he did clandestine “business” with the Japanese well into the war years and kept a Japanese mistress ( the First Lady of Fukien). He surrendered Foochow to the Japanese with hardly a bullet fired, in exchange for a safe withdrawal with all his wealth. And yet he was one of Chiang’s most trusted people.

He was only relieved of governship after Americans applied pressure on Chiang, and Chiang begrudgingly relented because he needed American $s to stay in the game. He went a long way back with Chen Yi, who served him well in the takeover of Shanghai.

tamsen_ikard said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1309074695929683968

China making it completely clear that arrogant US needs to check its brains before thinking such arrogant and foolish actions. Putting troops in Taiwan will spark the war.

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Wasn't that already clear?

escobar said:

Wasn't that already clear?

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No, it is NOT clear. At least not here in Washington. I am just trying to tell the truth. That's why think tank experts and members of Congress are considering replacing strategic ambiguity with strategic clarity, as well as an FTA with Taiwan. The mindsets among these decision makers are that since Xi and the PLA would never risk a war with the U.S. in the short term, Washington should push as hard as possible to ensure that Taiwan remains separate from China even as Chinese relative hard power continues to grow.

They need to get their heads examined. Even in the 1950s the PRC was planning to invade Taiwan. Had the Korean War not happened the resources used in it would have gone to Taiwan's invasion. The only reason the PRC temporarily gave up on conquering Taiwan was first, because the resources were needed elsewhere, and second, because there was a strategic disparity and Eisenhower threatened to nuke China in case of invasion. Since then China has its own nukes which can strike the entire US, a modern navy, a modern airforce. With Trump's policy of sanctions on China the more they disengage the less China has to lose by breaking all ties with the US.
If the US moves forces into Taiwan or Taiwan declares independence it is enough for the PRC to reopen hostilities with Taiwan.

Josh Luo said:

No, it is NOT clear. At least not here in Washington. I am just trying to tell the truth. That's why think tank experts and members of Congress are considering replacing strategic ambiguity with strategic clarity, as well as an FTA with Taiwan. The mindsets among these decision makers are that since Xi and the PLA would never risk a war with the U.S. in the short term, Washington should push as hard as possible to ensure that Taiwan remains separate from China even as Chinese relative hard power continues to grow.

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It's because it's clear that US is doing the salami-slicing tactics and considering replacing strategic ambiguity with strategic clarity. Strategic clarity in itself is not bad. US is not going to send military force to Taiwan at least for now but there will be more and more cooperation. The real issue for now is what PRC is going to do with this cooperation that is being set up. Probably "accepting" it somehow.

gelgoog said:

They need to get their heads examined. Even in the 1950s the PRC was planning to invade Taiwan. Had the Korean War not happened the resources used in it would have gone to Taiwan's invasion. The only reason the PRC temporarily gave up on conquering Taiwan was first, because the resources were needed elsewhere, and second, because there was a strategic disparity and Eisenhower threatened to nuke China in case of invasion. Since then China has its own nukes which can strike the entire US, a modern navy, a modern airforce. With Trump's policy of sanctions on China the more they disengage the less China has to lose by breaking all ties with the US.
If the US moves forces into Taiwan or Taiwan declares independence it is enough for the PRC to reopen hostilities with Taiwan.

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There is lot talks about PRC reopen hostilities with Taiwan but less talks about what happen after.

escobar said:

There is lot talks about PRC reopen hostilities with Taiwan but less talks about what happen after.

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Taiwan was left alone sofar because it is more advantageous for china to do that. Taiwan capital, entrepreunership help China industrialized in 80's and 90's Large swath of Chinese consumer economy export was built or pioneer by Taiwan. Latter on people who work on this plant strike on their own. It is a way of technical transfer

Case in point the semiconductor blockade right now China still lack of semiconductor engineer and she make the shortfall by hiring thousand of Taiwan engineer .But make no mistake Semiconductor is the last frontier of Chinese technological quest With that the usefullness of Taiwan as de facto independent entity will come to and end. LKY once said the same thing leave Taiwan alone because China benefit from it
But time move on. Once China master all the technology that will be the end of Taiwan and that day is getting close now. Ironically it the US policy of depriving China from high end technology will only hasten the day.

US is playing with fire by testing the limit of China's patient

Hendrik_2000 said:

Once China master all the technology that will be the end of Taiwan and that day is getting close now.

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I thought China was a peace-loving country that pledged to seek peaceful unification with Taiwan and wouldn't attack first, unless Taiwan did a couple of clearly defined things, such as redrafting the constitution to change the ROC's status to that of an independent Taiwan, or making a formal declaration of Unilateral Independence. I've lost count of the number of times Chinese people have told me (even on this forum) that China is patient and will wait (another) 100 years if necessary.

Are you trying to tell me that all of the above is a lie, and China will invade for no reason other than it no longer has to import semiconductors?

Mr T said:

I thought China was a peace-loving country that pledged to seek peaceful unification with Taiwan and wouldn't attack first, unless Taiwan did a couple of clearly defined things, such as redrafting the constitution to change the ROC's status to that of an independent Taiwan, or making a formal declaration of Unilateral Independence. I've lost count of the number of times Chinese people have told me (even on this forum) that China is patient and will wait (another) 100 years if necessary.

Are you trying to tell me that all of the above is a lie, and China will invade for no reason other than it no longer has to import semiconductors?

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Nope but the the anti seccesionist law clearly spell out the justification for Taiwan invasion and you forget to mention one of the casus beli for invasion and that is China CANNOT wait forever or Taiwan Or if Taiwan make no attempt to reunify. Base on historic precedent there are only few cases of peaceful reunification So in most probably China just have to use force