None of those seem very impressive or that useful at preventing a PLA assault. Reaper is alright I suppose, but you're facing an opposition armed with GJ-11.
Although it would be awfully hilarious if PLA were to capture a Reaper intact ala Iran.
china/taiwan news
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None of those seem very impressive or that useful at preventing a PLA assault. Reaper is alright I suppose, but you're facing an opposition armed with GJ-11.
Although it would be awfully hilarious if PLA were to capture a Reaper intact ala Iran.
First time for J-16. They usually send Su-30s for this.
China rapidly needs to do something big to stop the slide. Whatever China is doing right now, which is just flying planes around Taiwan, its not working. Taiwan and US are continuously doing Salami slicing. Whether its changing Taiwan passport, stopping all Chinese investments in Taiwan, all the US arms sales and visits.
Even Europeans are now engaging with Taiwan massively and China's warnings are just not working out.
There is only one way to stop this slide, China must show that it can do more than just posturing. They need to show that they have the courage and stomach to actually fight a war for Taiwan. They need to put the fear of destruction back into Taiwanese minds.
Escalating to the brink of War is one solution. Shooting down a Taiwanese plane or sinking a Taiwanese navy ship could be one option. Another option would be to fly PLA bombers directly inside Taiwan. But even these actions might only increase Taiwanese anger without cowering them in fear. The other option is to take one of the Taiwanese islands like Pratas.
China needs to do something fast or else Europeans and US will simply ignore one China policy and start sending diplomats in Taiwan and simply ignore China's warnings. And China cannot stop relations with both US and Europe just for Taiwan. So, the only option is to hit Taiwan itself. It must be Taiwan that needs to stop US and Europe from doing these actions. Only the fear of War will bring Kmt back in power. Only the fear of war will prevent Taiwan from taking more action to desnicize Taiwan.
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The Harpoon overlaps with the HF-II. If Taipei had any brains, they'd choose one, otherwise it'll f*** up Coastal Defense's logistics and training.
For all purposes, taiwan has been an independent country for the last 71 years. The US and the EU sending diplomats to taiwan will change little substancial, IMO.
Diplomatic recognition is the biggest thing that is preventing full Taiwan Independence. If Taiwan can simply claim that they are a country and a lot of countries in the world recognize it then its over for China. They will not be able to get Taiwan back. One China policy is the only thing preventing Taiwan Independence.
China must pay a big price to defend One China Policy. They must either break relations with any country that develops relations with Taiwan, including US and Europe, which will lead to complete decoupling between China and US, and massive losses economically. Or they start the takeover of Taiwan through fighting, which has its massive challenges.
No matter how you look at it. This is a big problem for China with no way out. They either give up on Taiwan or start a new cold war and potentially hot war with the west to defend One China policy. The west wants to start a cold and hot war with China. So, they don't care about rising tensions. They welcome it. Taiwan's DPP also welcomes it cause they think it will boost their support.
The only way out for China is pressure Taiwan massively and put the fear of death and destruction on them to back down from this. It must be Taiwan that must stop contacts with the west cause the west will not stop it. They will increase it. So, China must do something to threaten Taiwan now. Its either taking an island or flying directly within Taiwan. If Taiwan stops contact with the west to reduce escalation and shows some pro-China behavior, then things could be good for China. Otherwize, China is in big dilemma of either fighting a war or losing Taiwan for good.
They will never be able to get taiwan back. At least, not without taiwan consent. And taiwan will never agree to join the PRC, and will only accept joining the ROC. The lack of formal relationships has not impeded taiwan from being an economic and technological powerhouse.
So, i think that it would be better for the chinese government to stop being bellicose every time that taiwan makes relations to other countries. No one will cut relations with china in order to start relations with taiwan. The two sides of the taiwan strait (or the formosa strait, the name my countrymen gave to the island when they arrived there in 1516
) should maintain at least peaceful relations.But i think that the chinese government may have a fear that acepting this could jeopardize their legitimacy as the government of china in the eyes of the chinese people. So, they keep the hostility toward taiwan.
Well, the U.S. military is actively preparing for a Pratas contingency. Plus taking the Pratas could actually accelerate U.S. Congress' passing of the Taiwan Defense Act and the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act, practically solidifying Taiwan's de facto independence and U.S. defense umbrella (from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity). Taking the Pratas would also fail to degrade the ROC military's real capabilities. A smarter (but just as aggressive, if not more) action the PLA could take is to take out the four ROCN submarines and roughly half of the missile boats when are still in the ports, along with a bunch of large, immobile air defense radars. In other words, take out Taiwan's hardware that cannot be replaced in the short term in 6-8 hours or less, and subsequently retreat once U.S. forces in the region start to mobilize. I can see the PLA resorting to this kind of hit and run (but hitting Taiwan where it hurts and cannot be healed in the short term) tactic as a negotiation tactic with Trump should things get worse.
China will likely cease fire after 24 hours since Beijing has a lot to lose by inviting a massive U.S. and Japan retaliation. The political and material costs are simply too high. Think about North Korea during the Yeonpyeong Island in 2010. It was a hit and run tactic to increase bargaining position. You could also argue that the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War was a hit and run tactic for China (albeit not as successful as Deng hoped) to enhance its own bargaining position against the USSR. China could take lessons from how the DPRK resorted to a cycle of provocation and extortion against the ROK just short of triggering a massive retaliation.
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