It feels more like Xi is taking back the economic sectors one by one scaring foreign investors so domestic investors can buy it up for the cheap.
China News Thread
- Thread starter KYli
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I recommended that approach years ago. Not so much for domestic investors to buy cheap, but, simply, to exclude, undesirable, foreign investors.
It looks like Dongbei(Jillin) still doesn't have an access to the sea of Japan? Does he mean an export through the Russian small part of land? Yep looking at the map it's very close.
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Well China could just wait for Russia to be further weakened by the Ukraine War and Putin to eventually die (say a decade from now). As long as Putin remains in power, Beijing would maximise its interests in Russia by importing loads of cheap oil, gas, timber, water, and processed meat.
But as soon as Putin dies, a pro-West party might come to power and join the US against China. By then, the political situation (as a result of Sino-Russian split amid a significant weakened Russia) could allow China to annex Outer Mongolia and parts of Kazakhstan that used to be Qing territories (especially the freshwater lakes). However, I doubt that Beijing would go for any territories of the Russian Federation since these territories would always be resided by ethnic Russians and protected by tactical nukes.
And of course Beijing could argue that since Russia invaded Ukraine as a means of getting back lost territory, the PRC should be entitled to similar irredentist privileges, especially since if Russia were to join the U.S. against China, China would then need “buffer zones” to defend against U.S. alliance expansions. Same offensive realist arguments Putin made could be reused by China against Russia, US, and India to justify its own expansion should opportunities arise while being surrounded by adversaries.
Man I doubt the chinese leadership would ever let Russia slip on the other side.
In the short term, definitely no. Nor would Putin and the Siloviki want to join the liberal West. In the long run (especially if Putin suffer a defeat in Ukraine or after his death), there are several potential explosive factors between Russia and China:
Mongolia: Outer Mongolians see Inner Mongolians as their brethren. Thus when Beijing insisted on Mandarin education in Inner Mongolia back in 2019, civil groups in Mongolia tried their best to interfere despite Mongolian government’s official non interference. Also, Mongolians (especially liberals) despise being dependent on exporting coal and sheep to China and would prefer deepening ties to the US and Japan instead, albeit they are powerless in doing so. In other words, outer Mongolians have the clear intent to interfere in the politics of Inner Mongolia and would try what they can to develop ties with China’s adversaries. From the CCP’s perspective, annexing Mongolia to resolve its “Century of Humiliation” would be much easier than taking back Taiwan due to continuous land border (unless Moscow pledges nuclear umbrella to Mongolia). Ultimately it was a White Russian general (who lost to the Bolsheviks) who caused Mongolia to be permanently separated from China, as the Beiyang Government back in the 1920s lack the firepower necessary to defeat even a rogue Russian warlord.
India: Despite Russia’s increasing dependence on China, Moscow still sees New Delhi as a counterweight to Beijing. This could seem from Moscow’s insistence on New Delhi joining the SCO, rendering the organisation defunct in reality due to persistent Sino-Indian rivalry. Moscow has nearly always taken New Delhi’s side every time the two Asian giants clash and sold weapons to New Delhi that were always better than those sold to Beijing historically. If the CMC one days decides that it has had enough with India’s salami slicing tactics on the disputed border, Beijing could launch an all out blitzkrieg to take back Southern Tibet, even temporarily occupying the strategic city of Leh. That could cause a Sino-Russian split for a multitude of reasons, just like the Sino-Indian War of 1962 exacerbated the Sino-Soviet split.
Post-Putin Russian Government: A pro-West post-Putin Russian Government could also lead to Sino-Russian split, especially if the administration in Washington at that time is a GOP(Republican) one. Japan, India, and the Republican Party have long argued for cozying with Moscow to further encircle China, so a liberal pro-West Moscow would be a perfect fit for them. For liberal Russians, they not only see Chinese as belonging to an alternative civilisation, but geopolitically a threat to the Russian Far East.
Climate Change and immigration: Climate change could force more Chinese and Mongolians to immigrate to the resource-rich Russian Far East and Siberia. Should the Russian government crack down harshly, China could invoke the historical territory argument, especially if extreme weather makes the North China Plain no longer productive agriculturally and Chinese becoming climate refugees with guns and money.
What about the reverse, post Putin a communist party take over and further integerate Russia with China? This is a more likely scenario considering communist party has more vote than libs.
I don't know what you are smoking. China's access to the sea of Japan is not important strategically or economically. What is important to China now is SCS. It is an obvious attempt by BBC using a fake Chinese nationalist to create a division between China and Russia. Not sure why so many people still fall for such nonsense.
If Putin died and the liberal faction in Russia gained power, then the first thing the Western powers would do is to crush nationalistic Russians and Communist Russians, and then make sure that Russia would break up into many pieces. Just like the Western powers welcome Baltic states and court Ukraine after the downfall of SU, same thing would happen.
The more liberal and wealthy part of Russia would be divided into a few states and courted by the Western powers. Those poor regions in Siberia and Russian Far East would probably be ruled by warlords.
In the reality, China prefers working with Putin or Communist Russia than taking any territories of Russia. China has no problem buying resources from Russia. Russian Far East or Siberia aren't such a good place to live and enjoy lives. Not saying China won't make a move if the opportunity arrived and the Western powers would be on Chinese doorstep if China did nothing. However, such scenarios is not ideal or what China wanted.
Would never happen, once Putin fucks off it will just be even more anti western leaders, like Medvedev. There would never be a chance where China can go directly against Russia in order to restore lost territories, because Russia will just keep hugging on, giving China no real chance to avenge past wrongs without making China look insane for attacking an ally.
China has access to the sea of Japan... Sort of. A treaty between China and Russia makes Vladivostok and the land route around it opened for China's use in the same status as Chinese ports. However, China cannot upgrade the facilities there or build in the vladivostok oblast, so in that regard, it is limited.
The best bet for China to regain these areas properly would be to trade them for something else Russia wants. Until then, China has de facto very free access to all of Russia in the meantime, so it's not in a hurry to press the issue.
You sure you're not A CHINESE LIBERAL? You sure sound like one.