China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?

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BMEWS

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According to "friendship" theory this should never have happened

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What is the Return on Investment of vassalage these days?
Negative like the Interest rates?
 
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escobar

escobar

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manqiangrexue said:
No, tech is first. You can conquer the world on your own power if your tech is good enough.
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Follow the reasoning. It is about alliance in IR to compete against US.

manqiangrexue said:
LOLOL WHAT? When the PRC say they "don't do alliance thing?" LOL
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lol, The China’s ‘non-alliance’ policy...

manqiangrexue said:
you can't make a country want to fight against America for your own good.
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Yes and nobody say that is what CHina should do

manqiangrexue said:
Your reading comprehension and understanding are the only things that are incompetent, and thoroughly so.
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Lol, another one
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

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escobar said:
Follow the reasoning. It is about alliance in IR to compete against US.
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The reasoning is that tech equals power. Only with power can you gain alliance. Trying to gain alliance in order to compete is putting the cart before the horse.

escobar said:
lol, The China’s ‘non-alliance’ policy...
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That is an antiquated policy that isn't followed today. It was made when China was weak and needed to benefit from as many sides as it could to bolster itself. Today, it's obvious that that's not the policy that is followed as there are clearly allied nations like Russia and Pakistan. I agree this is a funny thing to announce that China doesn't have alliances but in practice, it does.

escobar said:
Yes and nobody say that is what CHina should do
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According to you, you want to use IR/PR to win over US allies while America still has more power over them, so what can they do? They would have to fight against the US to come over to China. That's why it's a fools gambit to try to do this before China is stronger than the US.

escobar said:
Lol, another one
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Yes, unfortunately, there are many instances that demonstrate your incompetence at reading and understanding.
 
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AndrewS

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escobar said:
Why do you assume China having technology independence mean US losing tech power?
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If we look at smartphones, 2019 shipments were as follows

US: 166 million
China: 366 million

So China consumes twice as many smartphones as the USA.

It also looks like Chinese companies produce 40%-50% of all smartphones globally.

If Chinese companies become technology independent of the USA, they will set the defacto global technology standards.

So how would the Google app ecosystem still retain its position as the defacto global standard?
 
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AndrewS

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escobar said:
Amusing. China has almost independance in military tech but US militray is still top and not weakening. US is selling more weapon than China. China has independance in space tech but US space tech is still strong and not weakening. US sold more satellite than China.
So having tech independance mean you have room to manoeuvre like you want. It does not mean the other is necessarily losing.
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The US military is weakening relative to the USA.
See cross post below.

AndrewS said:
Is there any doubt that China faces a New Cold War with the USA?

The only question is how large the military buildup will be.

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Looking to the past, we saw Chinese military spending double from 1960-1965 after the Sino-Soviet Split when Communist fraternity turned into Nationalist rivalry. Suppose that was to happen again?

China military spending would grow from $300 Billion in 2020 to $600 Billion in 2025
As a share of GDP, it is an increase from 2% today to roughly 3% of GDP.
That is still comfortably below the 3.5%-4% that the USA or Russia have routinely spent over the past 20 years.

So what could an extra $300 Billion buy every year?
And that is before taking into account that China has lower costs for personnel and equipment.

For example, the US currently spends $418 Billion outside of personnel costs.
So I reckon the Chinese military in 2025 could be matching whatever the US spends outside of personnel costs.

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In such a scenario, a Chinese Air Force with 3000 or 4000 combat airframes is entirely feasible.
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escobar

escobar

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tamsen_ikard said:
I don't think China is still serious about "let's make a new eco-system" project. The Chinese elites fundamentally still believe they will be accepted by the west if they somehow modify their behavior, give up on core issues (many willing to give up Taiwan/Hong Kong and so forth). Many believe in a so called "rule based world order" even within the party leadership.

So, you can say they drank the cool-aid of the western globalist/universal values theory. They still hope whatever Trump is doing is not serious/ somehow Trump will stop escalation/ US public will be pragmatic. So, in a sense, they think American society and national psyche are similar to theirs, which is not true.

Just because China and Chinese people are extremely pragmatic and focused on money making, doesn't mean America and the west will be the same.

When Chinese people look at tech eco-system, they think about efficiency. They look at American tech eco-system and think if I use it I will save money, why go the extra effort?

Even during the height of anti-China feeling in the US, many Chinese companies are still trying to do a US IPO. Many Chinese companies still anounce that they will launch a new product in the US such as a Chinese car or a phone. Again, anyone who understands the American mood right now would never do such things. But the Chinese do anyway, because they are still hoping that Americans will focus on money making over preserving their dominance.

If China was really thinking in realist terms, they would never allow Chinese companies to go for global expansion while using Google Playstore/Gmail/Google eco-system. Even if it was painful, they would focus on making their own eco-system. But they never thought like, they thought about maximum efficiency and Google/US chip tech provided that.

Even now after all the sanctions and bans, why is China not dictating that if a US company does not sell to Huawei, it cannot sell to any other Chinese company. How about a different policy such as, all Chinese companies selling phones or laptops must have Chinese developed OS and services.
Or how about a pressuring all the Chinese phone makers to work together to come with a single app store and a single email and map and phone OS? Nope. Everyone is trying to do their own thing and failing.

That's why I am saying it will take 30-40 years. China will never commit to a strong self-reliance policy. They will do it bit by bit. It will be american bans that will force them to change and those bans will come on slowly.
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Very Good. Realism not idealism. They are not really serious.
 
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