China should spread rumors of banning tesla in China or sell off its brand to BYD in china.
China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?
- Thread starter MrCrazyBoyRavi
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where is berserker when we need him?
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
What do you want to happen? You say things that everyone disagrees with so everyone expresses their opinion at you. Anything wrong with that?
Boo hoo, that's a nice crybaby attitude, sounds like the type of person who should run Chinese international affairs, eh? Just go the the UN and cry and say too many other countries are ganging up you. That's wonderful PR/IR LOL
The rebutting you part is important. And when you can't answer logically, you forfeit your point.
What is that even supposed to mean? It's nothing that helps your point; that's for sure.
How about stop imposing your twisted worldview onto us and get out of here.
Your quadrant 2 reasoning doesn't make any sense.
Good foreign relations with the USA requires China not to challenge the USA, and for the US to remain the global hegemon.
But a wealthy China will inevitably be so big that it will challenge the USA in every respect.
A wealthy China would have an economy 4x larger, due to 4x the population.
Therefore good relations with the USA requires China to stay poor.
That is not a good outcome for the Chinese people.
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On the other hand, you believe that if China becomes a technologically advanced nation (Quadrant 1+3) , then everything turns out fine for China.
I agree with this, because if China becomes hi-tech, it will almost certainly escape the middle income trap, and become a prosperous nation. When you combine this with the size of China's population, that translates into outsized economic/military/political/cultural influence.
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You need to change your evaluations in this framework.
The conclusion is that China needs to be technologically advanced and therefore prosperous.
And this inevitably means accepting worse relations with the USA.
How far relations decline is up for debate, but this situation will last for another at least another 10 years, until China opens up a commanding lead in terms of GDP/technology. For example, the Australian government white papers project the Chinese economy at 2x the USA in the 2030-2035 timeframe.
In terms of R&D, remember the National Science Foundation reported that in 2019, China likely spent more on R&D than the USA.
The statistics also show that Chinese R&D spending is still increasing sharply.
If you look to the 2030-2035 timeframe, we could expect China to have an economy twice the size of the USA plus a modest increase in R&D intensity to 3% (which is still lower than its close neighbours Japan and Korea).
When you run those numbers, China would be spending more on R&D than the rest of the developed world combined.
Source:
You have to defend your arguments with logic. I've pointed out what I believe is faulty reasoning in your statements below.
Can you support your argument for Quadrant 2?
Your quadrant 2 reasoning doesn't make any sense.
Good foreign relations with the USA requires China not to challenge the USA, and for the US to remain the global hegemon.
But a wealthy China will inevitably be so big that it will challenge the USA in every respect.
A wealthy China would have an economy 4x larger, due to 4x the population.
Therefore good relations with the USA requires China to stay poor.
That is not a good outcome for the Chinese people.
---
On the other hand, you believe that if China becomes a technologically advanced nation (Quadrant 1+3) , then everything turns out fine for China.
I agree with this, because if China becomes hi-tech, it will almost certainly escape the middle income trap, and become a prosperous nation. When you combine this with the size of China's population, that translates into outsized economic/military/political/cultural influence.
---
You need to change your evaluations in this framework.
The conclusion is that China needs to be technologically advanced and therefore prosperous.
And this inevitably means accepting worse relations with the USA.
How far relations decline is up for debate, but this situation will last for another at least another 10 years, until China opens up a commanding lead in terms of GDP/technology. For example, the Australian government white papers project the Chinese economy at 2x the USA in the 2030-2035 timeframe.
In terms of R&D, remember the National Science Foundation reported that in 2019, China likely spent more on R&D than the USA.
The statistics also show that Chinese R&D spending is still increasing sharply.
If you look to the 2030-2035 timeframe, we could expect China to have an economy twice the size of the USA plus a modest increase in R&D intensity to 3% (which is still lower than its close neighbours Japan and Korea).
When you run those numbers, China would be spending more on R&D than the rest of the developed world combined.
Source:
Certainly. China has a population x4 the United States. But for it to have an economy x4 larger, its per capita GDP would have to equal the United States. According to the IMF, China's per capita GDP in 2020 will be 21,000 USD while the US will be 67,000 USD. If America's per capita GDP grows by just 1.5% per year, it would take China's per capita GDP growing at 5% per year for 35 years to catch up. Your scenario would be reached in the year 2055. Needless to say, no one can guess what growth rates of each country will be in 10 years, let alone 30 years. Further, that is not accounting for the fact that China's labor force and population will be in deep decline by 2055 with a large elderly population to support, similar to Japan today. So it is pointless to make arguments based on such distant scenarios.
Certainly, China's GDP could exceed the US GDP by a large amount if it does not remain poor. Therefore, it would have a lot of power potential. Still, I believe it could still achieve good relations with the US if keeps military spending at a low level, settles border disputes with its neighbors, and liberalizes. While there would still be some paranoid voices in the U.S. suspicious of China, there would be no excuse to launch a new Cold War and if the U.S. tried, it would be resisted by other countries, even its own allies, so it would fail.
This would be a good scenario for China because it would enjoy a lot of power, but it would not need to spend much on the military. Let America continue to be the world's policeman, while China enjoys the fruits of the US-led international order. And even if the US did want to start a fight in this scenario, there would be nothing to prevent China from ramping up military spending in that case.
How far relations decline is up for debate, but this situation will last for another at least another 10 years, until China opens up a commanding lead in terms of GDP/technology. For example, the Australian government white papers project the Chinese economy at 2x the USA in the 2030-2035 timeframe.
If China succeeds here, then we both agree. But China should be careful in this scenario.
For one thing, are you talking about GDP (PPP) or GDP (Nominal)? If you mean GDP (PPP) it is a reasonable timeframe. However, by GDP (nominal), China's GDP is 14 trillion USD while the US is 21 trillion USD. In order for the Chinese economy to be 2x the USA in 15 years, if the US economy grows at a modest 2.2% a year, China's economy would have to grow at 8.2% a year to be 2x the USA economy by the end of the period 2035. Given that in recent years China has not even managed 7% growth, it is unlikely that the Australian government white paper prediction will be achieved by 2035 in nominal GDP.
Further, it is not simply a matter of China spending as much on R&D as the rest of the developed world by the end of our period (2035), since the rest of the developed world collectively is currently ahead of China in most areas. China would have to spend significantly more than the rest of the developed world and do so over an extended period of time to catch up. And this is under the assumption that simply throwing money and manpower at R&D guarantees results.
As far as talent is concerned, Lee Kuan Yew once said, "China can draw on the talents of 1.3 billion people. The United States can draw on the talents of 7 billion." The West's more open and multicultural society is better poised to take advantage of the human capital and talent that is being produced around the world every day. Just look at how many Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and inventors and CEOs have been foreigners. Elon Musk is South African. Andrew Grove was Hungarian. Sergei Brin is a Soviet Jew. Satya Nadella is Indian.
If you want to argue that China can achieve technological parity going it alone, China needs to demonstrate it. So far, it has worked on semiconductors for decades, engines for decades, its space program for decades, and yet... it is failed to even come close to the West in these basic areas. Even the AVIC AG600 runs on a Russian engine. This is not even a jet engine! It's a turboprop engine.
Finally, it is worth remembering that 80% of the world's population lives outside China, and that share will only grow as the century wears on. While many of these countries are poor today, eventually India will develop. Eventually Africa will develop. Eventually the Middle East will develop. Eventually Southeast Asia will develop. If the majority of these areas fall into the Western orbit then it is hard to see China succeeding in the long run by going it alone.
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Relax, no one is ganging up on you. You don't do yourself favours by posting trash like the following.
I won't even bother to go into details. There's so much assumptions and perfonal opinons in this it's not surprising members here call you out on it.
Your projections saying China have to grow at 8.2% in order to be double the economic size of USA. But you have not taken into currency situarion. This is why some economists uses PPP to calculate the actual purchasing power, without exchange rate distorting towards internationally traded goods.
Also, empirical evidence suggest as each country in the catching up process (ie getting richer). Their currency increases relatives to others because of the attractiveness of the currency in the exchange rate. In my younger days, I've seen the deutschmark appreciated greatly against the pound. Thus accelerated the catching up and over taking process.
After saying all that, you then say prediction is unreliable in 30 years time. Well, in that case why even bother to produce all those figures and then say it's unreliable anyway?
What we do know is the here and now. And at this moment, USA economy is suffering badly, and it may not recover. It's got debt mountains higher than Everest! (It's funny the western doom merchants always hero's on about China's shadow banking and their debts, when it's nowhere near as bad as the USA).
And this USA debt doesn't even includes all those dollars floating around globally. Guess what, those dollars will be called one day. It'll comes back into USA to be demanded for other goods or services.
Let America continue to be the world's policeman, while China enjoys the fruits of the US-led international order
This line takes the biscuit. It implies China only enjoys this fruit due to the US alone. So it hasn't got anything to do with China's own backbreaking efforts than! The USA didn't gain anything from this relationship? Gee get a grip. It's not a one way street.
No wonder members here are calling you out with rubbish like this.
We're not looking at decades.
The Australian government white papers have a timeframe of 2030-2035 for the Chinese economy to be twice the size of the US economy, in terms of actual physical output when measured using PPP. This is even more true given the effects of COVID-19, given that China has successfully managed this.
In the long-run, you also have to account for the RMB appreciating from its current *undervalued* position, and converge to the PPP exchange rate.
In 5 years time, could we see the Chinese economy growing to 50% larger than the USA? The answer is likely yes.
50% is already a significant power differential between China and the USA.
At that point, we are much more likely to see the US recognise that whatever they try to do to China will be counterproductive.
This year, we're realistically looking at the US economy shrinking by 10-15%, given their COVID-19 situation.
So in 2020, US GDP will likely be 18-19 Trillion USD
In comparison, China will likely be at 15 Trillion USD using the exchange rate.
That is only a 20% difference in exchange rate terms, which is actually not much difference.
In the long-term, you also have to consider that the Chinese exchange rate is undervalued, and should converge towards the PPP exchange.
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